Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is in a "risk on" phase, with positive performance across major asset classes as of early 2026, following a period of adjustment and recalibration of earnings expectations [3] - The economic recovery is characterized by a rebound in consumer sentiment in the US and signs of stabilization in China, with December PMI indicating a return to above 50, suggesting a recovery phase [10][24] Monetary Policy - A long-term trend of easing monetary policy is observed in the US and Europe, with the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank having begun rate cuts after a prolonged tightening phase [26] - The US is expected to experience two rate cuts in 2026, with significant political dynamics influencing the timing and extent of these cuts [26][40] Sector Performance - In the context of a "risk on" environment, sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary are expected to outperform, particularly in the A-share market, where high-growth sectors are leading the recovery [6][46] - The valuation of A-shares relative to US stocks has improved, indicating potential for further upside as market sentiment stabilizes [44] Investment Strategy - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, combining high-growth technology stocks with dividend-paying stocks to balance risk and return during the ongoing economic recovery [46][48] - The focus on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors is expected to dominate short-term investment strategies, driven by improving risk appetite and market sentiment [48] Currency and Commodity Outlook - The Chinese Yuan is expected to continue appreciating, benefiting from year-end currency settlement dynamics and a weaker US dollar [2] - Gold and copper prices are projected to reach new highs, supported by geopolitical uncertainties and sustained demand from sectors like AI [2][12]

Group 1: Economic Insights - The focus on the new Federal Reserve chair and interest rate cuts reflects a desire to lower global financing costs and stimulate capital expenditure and demand recovery, but the key factor is the long-term U.S. Treasury yield rather than the policy rate[5] - The expansion of the real economy is more closely related to medium- to long-term risk-free rates than to the central bank's benchmark rate[5] - Despite three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points in 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield only decreased by 36 basis points, indicating limited responsiveness of long-term rates to Fed actions[12][19] Group 2: Fiscal Challenges - The pricing logic of long-term U.S. Treasuries has shifted, now anchored by U.S. fiscal sustainability and the credibility of the dollar, rather than Fed policy[5][11] - The U.S. fiscal situation is under increasing strain, with interest payments on debt rising as a share of total expenditures, which could exacerbate fiscal contradictions[18][25] - The "impossible trinity" of fiscal balance, inflation, and monetary easing presents significant challenges for U.S. economic policy, especially in light of electoral pressures[18] Group 3: Market Implications - A weak dollar and high interest rates are likely to remain key macroeconomic assumptions in 2026, raising questions about the sustainability of capital expenditure growth[25] - If long-term Treasury yields remain high, it could hinder global capital expenditure expansion and create uncertainty in asset repricing[27] - The reliance on debt financing for AI investments may be challenged in a high-rate environment, questioning the viability of current growth trajectories[26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Since the beginning of the year, banks have a strong motivation to increase their bond holdings, while trading desks are relatively cautious. Brokers are waiting for the right - side opportunity, funds are seeking certainty, and insurance companies' pure - bond purchases are generally in line with seasonality. The behavior of other institutions and insurance companies reflects the continued rapid growth of wealth management scale. Looking forward, the kinetic energy of trading desks is gradually recovering. Brokers are increasing their purchases of 3 - 10y treasury bonds, but the momentum for buying ultra - long treasury bonds is still not strong. Funds' recovery is relatively obvious, but they still prefer the coupon - earning approach. Bank allocation may remain relatively strong, so a bullish mindset can be maintained in the bond market, and a more optimistic view can be taken on credit in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bank Super - Seasonal Allocation - **Source of Bank's Year - Beginning Allocation**: The strong net buying by banks at the beginning of the year is due to several reasons. Firstly, credit issuance at the beginning of the year is generally weak, and banks lack assets. In 2025, commercial banks' deposits remained high, but loan demand was relatively weak, with the deposit - loan gap significantly higher than the seasonal level since the second half of 2025. The bill rate at the beginning of 2026 was low and the rebound slope was lower than the seasonal level, indicating weak loan demand. Secondly, banks are shifting from outsourced investment to self - managed allocation. At the end of the year, some bank funds participated in fund inflow - boosting, and at the beginning of the year, the funds were recovered and allocated through self - management. Also, since 2025, the two - way fluctuations in the bond market have increased, and bond fund returns have been poor. Thirdly, the relaxation of regulatory restrictions on indicators such as EVE may provide space for bond allocation [11][12] - **Large Banks**: Large banks' purchases of treasury bonds over 3y are super - seasonal, with significant increases in 7 - 10y and over 30y bonds. They have a higher preference for old treasury bonds over 7y. They are actively allocating and prefer medium - to long - term treasury bonds. Due to the tax policy change for new bonds and the tax preference for old bonds, they still actively buy old bonds. They significantly and super - seasonally sell 3 - 5y secondary - tier bonds, mainly for profit - taking and adjusting indicators [15] - **Small and Medium - Sized Banks**: Their behavior is more complex, with super - seasonal purchases of 3 - 7y policy - bank bonds, 3 - 5y and over 20y treasury bonds, and super - seasonal sales of 7 - 10y treasury bonds. The term selection reflects the demand differentiation between trading and allocation accounts. Allocation accounts value ultra - long - term coupons, while OCI and TPL accounts face duration restrictions. They choose 3 - 7y policy - bank bonds and 3 - 5y treasury bonds because of the relatively high spread between 3Y and 7Y CDB bonds and treasury bonds at the end of 2025, and the relatively low 5Y spread [18] 3.2 Dividend - Insurance Has Little Impact, Insurance Seeks Coupons at the Beginning of the Year - **Limited Impact of Dividend - Insurance's Good Start on Insurance Capital Behavior**: Insurance's bond - allocation rhythm is affected by the liability side, and premium income often has a seasonal "good - start" feature. The market was concerned that the good start of dividend - insurance might lead to a decline in the duration of insurance's bond allocation, but actual trading data shows no significant super - seasonality. This may be because the proportion of new - contract premiums in the total premium inflow is not high [21] - **Selling Ultra - Long Treasury Bonds Is a Seasonal Behavior and May End Temporarily**: Insurance's net selling of ultra - long treasury bonds at the beginning of the year is not super - seasonal. This is related to the data caliber as the insurance data in secondary trading includes insurance asset management, whose behavior is similar to that of public funds. Also, at the beginning of the year, insurance focuses on coupon - earning and prefers ultra - long local bonds [23] - **Insurance's Increase in Ultra - Long Credit Bonds Is Just Seasonal and Reflects the Coupon - Earning Approach**: The market was concerned about insurance's large - scale purchase of over 5y secondary - tier bonds, which pushed down long - term secondary - tier bond yields. However, this behavior is not super - seasonal and reflects the coupon - earning approach. Insurance accounts' liability side is generally stable, which is conducive to buying over 5y credit bonds [25] - **Insurance's Super - Seasonal Purchase of CDs Is Related to Money - like Accounts and Wealth - Management Behavior**: Insurance's significant super - seasonal increase in CD holdings at the beginning of this year is due to the abundant wealth - management funds at the beginning of the year, which are outsourced to money - like special accounts. It also reflects the assessment behavior of large - scale wealth - management to support the real economy, with CDs converted to deposits at the end of the year and reversed at the beginning of the year [27] 3.3 Band - Trading, Selling Bonds at the Beginning of the Year - Brokers super - seasonally sell treasury bonds over 3y and super - seasonally buy 1 - 3y treasury bonds and 5 - 7y policy - bank bonds. They maintain a trading mindset and wait for the right - side opportunity to go long. Due to the good performance of the stock market at the beginning of the year and the expected spring rally, the bond market is less attractive to brokers. They also maintain a volatile mindset and mainly conduct band - trading in the bond market, selling during the adjustment at the beginning of the year and being positive about 1 - 3y treasury bonds and 5 - 7y policy - bank bonds. In the future, brokers' net purchases of 3 - 10y treasury bonds will recover to some extent, but the purchase of ultra - long treasury bonds needs further recovery [29][30] 3.4 Funds Seek Certainty, and Duration Kinetic Energy Is Gradually Recovering - Funds super - seasonally sell old treasury bonds over 10y and treasury bonds over 20y at the beginning of the year and super - seasonally buy credit bonds within 5y, including 3 - 5y secondary - tier bonds. Multiple factors lead to fluctuations in funds' liability side at the beginning of the year, such as the withdrawal of year - end inflow - boosting funds and the weakening of institutional confidence in bond funds. Funds seek certainty and their preference for long - duration bonds has declined. They are gradually recovering, with the coupon - earning approach prevailing and mainly buying short - term credit bonds while moderately increasing duration. Since mid - January, the selling pressure on long - term interest rates by funds has eased, and the duration kinetic energy is gradually being repaired [33] 3.5 Other Institutions' Behavior Reflects the Continuous Growth of Wealth - Management Scale - Other institutions' behavior is similar to that of insurance institutions. They super - seasonally buy CDs and 1 - 3y policy - bank bonds, and their purchases of other bond types are in line with seasonality. The significant super - seasonal purchase of CDs and the strong purchase of short - term policy - bank bonds may reflect the increase in outsourced investment demand driven by the growth of wealth - management scale [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the Robotaxi industry [2][10]. Core Insights - The Robotaxi industry is expected to experience rapid growth in the U.S. by 2026, driven by advancements from companies like Tesla and Waymo [6][5]. - Tesla has initiated public operations of its fully autonomous Robotaxi fleet in Austin, with plans for widespread application by the end of 2026 [6]. - Waymo is expanding its operational areas significantly, with plans to increase the number of cities it serves, including Miami and others [6]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Tesla's fully autonomous Robotaxi fleet began public service in Austin on January 22, 2026, with gradual increases in vehicle numbers planned [6]. - Waymo has expanded its operational area in Austin from 90 to 140 square miles and is set to launch services in additional cities [6]. Future Projections - By the end of 2026, Robotaxi services are anticipated to be widely adopted across the U.S., influencing related industries domestically [6]. - Tesla's Cybercab is expected to enter production in April 2026, with a projected cost of less than $0.20 per mile for large-scale operations [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Ponyo, Horizon Robotics, and XPeng Motors, while also suggesting to monitor other players like Didi Global, Uber, and Cao Cao Mobility [6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the oil shipping industry, highlighting high market activity and potential for profit growth among key players [5][38]. Core Insights - The current demand surge is outpacing supply, with a focus on the price center for shipping rates [3][7]. - Supply and demand dynamics are being positively influenced by upstream production increases, geopolitical events, and tightening sanctions, suggesting that the price center for shipping rates is likely to continue rising [4][7]. - The oil shipping industry is experiencing high market activity, with companies poised for significant earnings releases [5][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Review - The current demand surge is characterized by a lack of substantial physical supply clearance, with a focus on the price center for shipping rates [3][7]. - Historical cycles show that significant supply clearance typically precedes high-demand periods, providing a stable foundation for subsequent price elasticity [6][14]. 2. Supply and Demand Drivers - Upstream production increases and geopolitical events are expected to support demand, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 2.61 million barrels per day as of January 2026 [29][39]. - The average age of oil tankers is projected to reach 25.9 years by 2025, indicating a potential for limited supply growth due to aging vessels [21][96]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the oil shipping industry is in a high-growth phase, with companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy benefiting significantly from increased shipping rates [5][38]. - The report anticipates that if market conditions improve further, valuations for oil shipping companies could increase, particularly in the Hong Kong market [5][38]. 4. Price Performance - The average shipping rate for VLCCs reached $94,000 per day in Q4 2025, marking the second-highest level since 2008, with fluctuations expected due to seasonal demand [33][34]. - The stock prices of oil shipping companies have shown resilience, indicating strong market confidence in the continuation of mid-term growth [34][36]. 5. Supply Dynamics - The report notes that the current order book for new vessels is insufficient to replace aging ships, with a significant portion of the fleet over 20 years old [84][96]. - The potential for physical removal of non-compliant vessels could lead to a tightening of supply, further supporting shipping rates [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Interest rates have a "range", while credit has no clear anchor, and the coupon is more certain. Compared with the yield lows in the second half of last year, the credit of over 3y has not fully recovered, with Tier 2 and perpetual bonds performing better than urban investment bonds [3]. - Compared with the time when the draft of the new regulations on public - fund sales solicitation was released in early September last year, the recovery of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, especially those over 3y, has been mediocre. In the previous unclear bond - market outlook, the strategy of extending duration for trading - type bonds was not favored [3]. - The supply pressure is not significant. Due to the Spring Festival factor, the issuance of credit bonds generally slows down in January and February. As of January 23, the issuance of non - financial credit bonds was 891.4 billion yuan, which is not large compared with previous years [3]. - The opening of amortized cost bond funds can still be exploited, which is beneficial for credit bonds with maturities of less than 2y and more than 5y. The amortized cost bond funds opened 257.5 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of last year and 264.5 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year. The products' closed - end periods are mainly over 5y and under 2y, which will continue to create new allocation demand for credit bonds and support the long - position market of credit bonds [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strong Credit Pattern Continues, High Demand for 3 - 5y and Tier 2/Perpetual Bonds - Since the beginning of the year, the credit spread has been passively compressed, and this situation continued last week. The 3 - 5y maturity performed the best. The yields of 3 - 5Y medium - term notes decreased by about 4 - 7bp; the yields of low - grade 3 - 4Y urban investment bonds decreased by about 5 - 10bp; the yields of 3 - 4Y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased by about 3 - 4bp [9]. - From the trading indicators, the credit - bond market is booming. The average trading duration of credit bonds has slightly increased to 2.54 years, the TKN trading proportion has continuously risen from 54.7% in the second week of this year to around 73.4%, and the low - valuation trading proportion has also risen above 70% [17]. - The trading volume of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds has reached the highest level since September last year, showing higher popularity than urban investment bonds [18]. 3.2 Can the Strong Credit Pattern Continue? 3.2.1 Interest Rates Have a Range, Credit Is More Certain - Compared with interest rates, as interest rates are approaching the "lower limit", the downward rhythm of interest rates may slow down in the short term without other positive catalysts. Credit bonds have no absolute reasonable range, and the market still lacks confidence in long - term interest rates. Therefore, in the absence of a liquidity shock in the bond market, the coupon of credit bonds is more certain [20]. - Comparing with four time points (the end of last year, the yield lows of credit bonds in November and July last year, and the time when the draft of the new regulations on public - fund sales solicitation was released in early September last year), the performance of medium - and long - term credit bonds has been outstanding this year, especially the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have a clear catch - up market. Compared with the yield lows in November and July, the yields of long - term credit bonds still have room to decline, with Tier 2 and perpetual bonds performing better than urban investment bonds, while the short - end yields are already close to or lower than the corresponding points [21]. 3.2.2 The Impact of the New Regulations on Public - Fund Sales Has Not Been Fully Recovered - After the release of the draft of the new regulations in September last year, the market was generally worried that the funds of institutions such as wealth management and bank self - operation would be affected by the redemption regulations in the future and would no longer participate in Tier 2 and perpetual bonds through public - funds. As a result, the price ratio between 5Y AAA - Tier 2 bonds and medium - term notes widened by nearly 20bp from September to December last year. - The implementation of the new regulations on public - fund sales rates at the beginning of this year was better than expected, and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds had a recovery market. The price ratio between 5Y AAA - Tier 2 bonds and medium - term notes compressed by 2.6bp, and the 3Y variety compressed by about 3.7bp. Overall, the recovery of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds has been mediocre, and they may continue to outperform in the future [23]. 3.2.3 The Supply Disturbance of Credit Is Not Significant - From the perspective of bond supply, the issuance of treasury bonds has increased significantly at the beginning of the year, and the primary supply pressure of the interest - rate bond market is greater than in previous years. To support the early implementation of fiscal policies, the issuance of government bonds may continue to increase in the last week of January and February. For credit bonds, due to the Spring Festival factor, the issuance generally slows down in January and February. As of January 23 this year, the issuance of non - financial credit bonds was 891.4 billion yuan, which is not large compared with previous years. Compared with interest - rate bonds, the supply pressure of credit bonds is smaller, which is likely to form a strong credit pattern [30]. 3.2.4 Exploiting the Opening of Amortized Cost Bond Funds - In the first quarter, a large number of amortized cost bond funds entered the intensive opening period again. Calculated based on the fund scale disclosed in the fourth - quarter report of 2025, the scales entering the opening period in January, February, and March were 81.1 billion yuan, 59.4 billion yuan, and 124 billion yuan respectively, with a total of 264.5 billion yuan (compared with 257.5 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of last year). - After the opening period, the products tend to allocate bonds with remaining maturities close to their closed - end periods. The closed - end periods of the products entering the opening period in the first quarter are mainly over 5y and under 2y, with scales of 129.7 billion yuan and 78.1 billion yuan respectively. - The re - allocation of amortized cost bond funds in the fourth quarter of last year was mainly concentrated in credit bonds, and this trend is expected to continue. On the one hand, it enhances the certainty of short - term credit, and on the other hand, it promotes the yields of long - term credit to continue to decline. Since last year, the long - term interest - rate game has been difficult, and the investment income and holding experience of interest - rate bond funds have been inferior to those of credit - bond funds. Therefore, amortized cost bond funds are likely to overweight credit bonds [34]. 3.3 How to View Institutional Behavior - Last week, insurance institutions increased their purchases of general - credit bonds, with a total net purchase of 7.6 billion yuan, mainly increasing the allocation of general - credit bonds with maturities under 3Y, with a new net purchase of 4 billion yuan. The allocation of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased, but the purchase of 5 - 10Y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds increased [38]. - Funds also increased their allocation of general - credit bonds, with a total net purchase of 42.3 billion yuan last week, a month - on - month increase of 11.3 billion yuan. The purchase duration has been slightly extended, with a slight increase in the allocation of 3 - 5Y varieties, and the net purchase of 5 - 10Y varieties turned positive for the first time this year. In terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, funds increased their holdings by 63.6 billion yuan last week, a month - on - month increase of 32.4 billion yuan, mainly increasing their holdings of 3 - 5Y varieties [40]. - The scale of wealth management increased compared with last week. As of January 18, the scale of bank wealth management was 31.57 trillion yuan, remaining basically flat month - on - month. Wealth management increased its holdings of general - credit bonds by 4.5 billion yuan, but the increase was lower than last week. Wealth management changed from net selling to net buying of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, mainly increasing the allocation of varieties with maturities under 1Y [42][44]. 3.4 Primary - Market Tracking: Increased Supply of Industrial Bonds and Other Financial Bonds - From January 19 to 25 last week, urban investment bonds still had a net outflow, with a net financing of - 25.4 billion yuan, and the net outflow scale decreased. The supply of industrial bonds increased, with a weekly net financing of 133.7 billion yuan [47]. - By province, the top three regions in terms of net financing of urban investment bonds this year are Jiangsu (10.1 billion yuan), Beijing (6.8 billion yuan), and Guangdong (6.7 billion yuan). The top three regions with net outflows are Tianjin (- 7.1 billion yuan), Chongqing (- 5.3 billion yuan), and Hunan (- 4.7 billion yuan) [49]. - By industry, the top three industries in terms of net financing of industrial bonds this week are Building Decoration (19 billion yuan), Food and Beverage (14.7 billion yuan), and Public Utilities (13.3 billion yuan) [51]. - This month, the weighted average issuance duration of urban investment bonds has extended to 3.57 years, while that of industrial bonds has shortened to 1.86 years, and the issuance proportion of bonds with maturities over 5y has significantly decreased. The primary - market issuance sentiment of urban investment bonds has significantly improved, with the proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times increasing to 56%, a month - on - month increase of 14pct. The proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times in the issuance of industrial bonds increased to 22% [53][54]. - Two industrial bonds were postponed for issuance this week, with a total postponed issuance scale of 900 million yuan [57]. 3.5 Secondary - Market Tracking: Significant Increase in the Trading Proportion of 3 - 5y Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - The trading proportion of urban investment bonds with short maturities under 1y increased by 1pct compared with last week, that of industrial bonds increased by 3pct month - on - month, and that of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased by 2pct month - on - month, but the trading proportion of 3 - 5y increased by 11pct month - on - month [60]. - This week, the trading proportion of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with an implied rating of AA+ continued to increase. The trading proportion of urban investment bonds with a rating of AA(2) and below decreased by 1pct month - on - month compared with last week, that of industrial bonds with a rating of AA and below remained flat month - on - month, and that of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with a rating of AA+ increased by 5pct month - on - month [60].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [2][10] Core Insights - The report highlights that the deployment of Al Agent sandboxing is expected to create new demand for CPUs, driven by the need to control potential risks associated with Al Agents [6] - The report suggests that as Al Agents continue to develop, the associated sandbox technology will likely be adopted, leading to new growth opportunities for CPU manufacturers and related supply chains [6] Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The report notes a recent market performance with a 20% increase [3] Key Companies and Investment Ratings - The report lists key companies with their investment ratings, including: - Haiguang Information: Market Cap 641.52 billion, EPS for 2024A is 0.83, with a PE of 332.53 [5] - Longxin Zhongke: Market Cap 77.39 billion, EPS for 2024A is -1.56 [5] - Tongfu Microelectronics: Market Cap 85.50 billion, EPS for 2024A is 0.45, with a PE of 125.20 [5] Industry Trends - The report discusses the increasing adoption of Al Agent sandboxing both domestically and internationally, with significant investments such as Meta's acquisition of Manus for over 2 billion USD [6] - The report emphasizes that the functionality of Al Agents is largely dependent on the richness and reliability of the tools they can access, with function calling being a core technology [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the Hong Kong real estate sector [1]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong residential market is stabilizing and showing signs of recovery, with new home sales volume approaching the peak levels of 2019, and second-hand home transactions reaching a new high since 2022. The inventory de-stocking cycle has significantly reduced from 125 months to 61 months [1][8]. - The retail property market is still under pressure, but rental declines are narrowing, and vacancy rates in core areas are decreasing. Office rents and occupancy rates are under pressure, with significant regional market differentiation [1][19][25]. - The residential market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, driven by lower mortgage rates and an increase in rental yields. Over 80% of residential properties are projected to achieve a balance between supply and rental demand [1][34][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Hong Kong Real Estate Market Review - Residential transaction volumes are increasing, with new home sales reaching 21,000 units in 2025, a 99.1% increase from the cycle's bottom [8][12]. - The inventory pressure has eased, with the de-stocking cycle for new homes dropping significantly [16]. - Retail property rents are still adjusting, but the rate of decline is slowing, and some core areas are showing signs of recovery [19][21]. - Office rents have decreased by 21.1% since their peak in June 2019, with rising vacancy rates [25][26]. 2. Outlook for the Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The residential market is expected to continue its recovery, with structural differentiation being a key feature [34]. - The ongoing Federal Reserve rate cuts are likely to support the Hong Kong real estate market's recovery [34][37]. - The proportion of properties achieving a balance between supply and rental demand is expected to increase, enhancing home buying demand [39][40]. - Talent attraction policies are anticipated to boost potential home buying demand as more skilled individuals move to Hong Kong [44][50]. 3. Valuation Elasticity of Hong Kong Property Companies - Current valuations of major Hong Kong property companies are at historically low levels, indicating potential for recovery [1][3]. - Companies with a higher proportion of development business and land reserves are expected to exhibit greater valuation elasticity [1][3]. - The top three property companies in terms of sales in 2025 are Sun Hung Kai Properties, Henderson Land Development, and Sino Land, with significant year-on-year sales growth for Henderson and Sino [1][3].

Market Performance - As of January 23, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.11%[11] - The CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.62%, with notable performance from small-cap indices[11] - Year-to-date, the CSI 300 Index is up 1.6%, while the CSI 300 enhanced portfolio has increased by 1.8%, yielding an excess return of 0.2%[23] Enhanced Fund Performance - For the CSI 300 enhanced fund, the minimum excess return was -0.48%, the median was 0.42%, and the maximum was 2.47% for the week[15] - The CSI 500 enhanced fund had a minimum excess return of -1.42%, a median of -0.12%, and a maximum of 1.56%[15] - The CSI 1000 enhanced fund reported a minimum excess return of -0.15%, a median of 0.72%, and a maximum of 3.15%[15] Sector Performance - The construction materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel sectors performed well this week, with weekly returns of 9.23%, 7.71%, and 7.31% respectively[12] - Conversely, the banking, telecommunications, and non-bank financial sectors underperformed, with weekly returns of -2.70%, -2.12%, and -1.45% respectively[12] Risk Considerations - There are risks associated with factor failure, model failure, and market style changes that could impact the effectiveness of the investment strategies employed[6][45]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - A timing model can be applied to commodities, and the report models the most market - concerned gold and crude oil. The model is more suitable for medium - term band trading rather than intraday high - frequency trading [2]. - The gold timing model has a sample - out interval from March 2019 to now, with 61 correct intervals and 17 incorrect intervals, and an interval win - rate of 78.21%. The crude oil timing model has 52 correct intervals and 11 incorrect intervals in the same sample - out period, with an interval win - rate of 82.54% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold Timing Model - In 2025, precious metals like gold and silver had a super - bull market. On January 20, 2026, the spot gold price exceeded $4700. The model aims to judge the future movement of gold in a complex macro - background. The target variable is COMEX gold due to its high liquidity and global - factor - dominated price [5]. - Factors include gold ETF holdings, ETF volatility, inventory, short and long positions, trading volume, global broad liquidity, other non - ferrous metal - related indicators, gold - copper ratio, gold - oil ratio, and COMEX gold futures technical indicators. After marginal processing of 196 original factors, there are 338 factors in total, and after screening, 138 daily - frequency, 27 weekly - frequency, and 25 monthly - frequency factors are retained [2][5]. - From March 2019 to now, the model has 61 correct intervals and 17 incorrect intervals with a 78.21% win - rate. Since the end of October 2025, the model has continuously output an upward view on gold [2][6]. 3.2 Crude Oil Timing Model - The target of the crude oil timing model is IPE Brent oil. Crude oil has relatively larger fluctuations and lower smoothness [8]. - Factors include the common factors with gold (such as gold - oil ratio and global liquidity), as well as different types of crude oil, different exchange crude oil, transportation index, Sino - US inventories, Chinese imports, US and OPEC production, crude oil ETF, refinery operating rate, futures positions, technical indicators, and zinc ingot price. After marginal processing of 281 original factors, there are 394 factors in total, and after screening, 133 daily - frequency, 22 weekly - frequency, and 45 monthly - frequency factors are retained [2][8]. - From March 2019 to now, the model has formed 52 correct intervals and 11 incorrect intervals, with an 82.54% win - rate. It was bullish from December 12, 2025, to January 9, 2026, and turned bearish on January 13, 2026 [8].