Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is undergoing a comprehensive transformation towards AI+ business model, leveraging AI intelligence as its core and focusing on industry models and intelligent terminals [7] - The company has joined Huawei's Robot to Cloud (R2C) protocol, enhancing its technological influence in the robotics and cloud intelligence sector [7] - The traditional business remains stable while new business lines are expected to open a second growth curve for the company [7] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 49.62 billion, 61.58 billion, and 75.13 billion RMB, with corresponding net profits of 9.05 billion, 11.77 billion, and 14.36 billion RMB [7] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,251 million RMB, with a growth rate of 43.5%, and is expected to reach 4,962 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 26.2% [6][8] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 179 million RMB, with a significant growth rate of 75.7%, projected to increase to 905 million RMB by 2025, with a growth rate of 41.2% [6][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.40 RMB in 2023, increasing to 1.35 RMB in 2025 [6][8] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 59.4 in 2023, decreasing to 28.2 in 2025 [6][8] - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 5.6% in 2023 to 24.9% in 2025 [6][8]

Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials industry, indicating a potential stabilization in the supply chain due to ongoing anti-involution efforts [1][4]. Industry Analysis - The anti-involution movement is expected to continue impacting the real estate supply chain, with the photovoltaic industry leading the way through a combination of gradual policy adjustments and market-oriented measures [6]. - Recent government initiatives aim to address issues such as chaotic competition and unreasonable procurement practices, which are anticipated to enhance market efficiency and fair competition within the building materials sector [6]. - The cement industry is experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, with various regions implementing staggered production schedules to stabilize prices. For instance, companies in Jiangxi, Sichuan, and other provinces are reducing output significantly during peak season [6]. - Investment recommendations highlight the cement sector's attractive dividend yield and the expectation of price recovery, with specific companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement being emphasized for potential investment [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively monitoring the cement sector due to its favorable fundamentals, with a focus on companies such as Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement, while also considering related photovoltaic industry stocks like Qibin Group [6]. - The consumer building materials sector is expected to see a reversal of its current challenges, with anticipated stabilization in demand and pricing, leading to improved performance for companies like Sangke Tree and Rabbit Baby [6].

Economic Outlook - The overall economy is expected to stabilize with structural reforms accelerating, supported by continuous fiscal efforts and a recovery in the real estate sector [3][11][19] - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy is anticipated to drive a rebound in PPI, benefiting industries such as coal and photovoltaics [5][30] - The technology sector is experiencing a significant surge, with new technologies like AI expected to empower a growth cycle lasting over a decade [3][6][45] Old Economy Insights - The "反内卷" policy is likely to push PPI to a turning point, with historical data indicating that PPI recoveries correlate with economic cycles [5][30] - During PPI upturns, stock market trends generally rise, with the greatest elasticity observed during the initial stages of PPI recovery [35][37] New Economy Insights - The current technology sector trend is still in its early stages, with historical patterns showing that industry trends require a conducive macroeconomic environment and liquidity [6][45] - Emerging technologies such as AI, low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, and quantum technology are at a critical juncture, with potential for explosive growth in the next two years [6][45] Funding Landscape - In a low-interest-rate environment, there is a significant shift of household savings towards equity assets, with the current allocation in stocks and funds at 15%, compared to 40% in developed markets [7][19] - Public fund issuance is expected to see a turning point as net asset values recover, with a historical correlation indicating that 80% of funds reaching positive net values leads to increased issuance [7][19] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on three main lines: old economy sectors benefiting from PPI recovery, new economy sectors driven by AI and overseas expansion, and consumer sectors emphasizing emotional consumption [8][45] - Specific sectors to watch include metals, coal, and new energy for the old economy, while AI hardware and applications are key for the new economy [8][45]

Real Estate - New home sales in Wind 20 cities increased by 18.26% week-on-week and 38.03% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities showing over 40% growth compared to last year[7] - Shanghai's second-hand home sales surged by 84.06% year-on-year, while Shenzhen's increased by 114.04%[22] Investment - Commodity prices generally rose, with rebar prices increasing by 0.70% to 3299 yuan/ton, and cement price index up by 0.62%[31] - Glass futures prices rose by 3.15% to 1212 yuan/ton, and asphalt prices increased by 1.35%[31] Production - Steel mill blast furnace operating rate slightly increased to 84% while oil asphalt operating rate decreased to 34.4%[44] - PTA operating rate rose by 2.3 percentage points to 77.29%[50] Consumption - Movie box office revenue increased significantly by 131.94% to 830.29 million yuan, with metro ridership and domestic flights also exceeding seasonal expectations[51] - Average wholesale price of pork decreased by 2.01% to 19.48 yuan/kg, while vegetable prices fell by 1.78%[61] Export - SCFI index dropped significantly, while BDI index increased, indicating mixed signals in export demand[58]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [2][45]. Core Views - The company has a strong foundation in the braking industry and is rapidly expanding its intelligent electronic control business, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth [7][45]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings based on its core braking business, with ongoing international expansion expected to contribute significantly to revenue [7][45]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been deeply engaged in the braking market for over 20 years and has established itself as a leading domestic manufacturer [11]. - The main business segments include mechanical braking, intelligent electronic control, and mechanical steering [15]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 51.64 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 30% [7][19]. - The intelligent electronic control segment's revenue share has increased significantly, from 27% in 2020 to 47% in 2024, while mechanical braking's share has decreased from 72% to 46% during the same period [18]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 128.2 billion yuan, 160.4 billion yuan, and 193.9 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 14.1 billion yuan, 17.2 billion yuan, and 21.1 billion yuan [6][41]. - The company expects to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% in revenue from 2025 to 2027 [6]. Product Expansion and Internationalization - The company is expanding its product categories based on its braking technology, including steering and suspension systems, and has developed three ADAS solutions [29][33]. - The company has successfully entered international markets, initially supplying General Motors and later expanding to other major clients like Stellantis and Volvo [36][37]. Valuation and Comparables - The report provides a relative valuation analysis, comparing the company with peers such as Desay SV and Top Group, with projected PE ratios for 2025-2027 at 22.7, 18.6, and 15.2 times, respectively [6][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The FOMC resolution was in line with expectations, with a dovish tone focusing on employment risks. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points in September 2025, the first rate cut of the year. The statement showed concerns about economic downside risks and employment, and there was internal disagreement mainly on the speed of rate cuts [2]. - The dot - plot indicated two more rate cuts this year, but Powell's speech at the press conference was hawkish. He emphasized data - driven decisions and that the current policy was not misaligned, and the exit of restrictive monetary policy remained uncertain [2]. - Powell's hawkish remarks reversed the initial market reaction. In the short term, the US Treasury yield curve may show a bull - steepening pattern, and the US dollar may remain weak. The Fed's rate cuts are beneficial to China's external environment, opening up space for aggregate monetary policies [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 What to Focus on in the Fed's Interest - Rate Meeting 3.1.1 FOMC Resolution Starts to Focus on Employment Downside Risks - The September 2025 FOMC resolution had three points of focus compared to July: adding descriptions about rising unemployment in the fundamental assessment, highlighting employment downside risks in the risk assessment, and only new Fed governor Milan voting against the resolution, preferring a 0.5 - percentage - point rate cut [7]. - The market's immediate reaction to the resolution was mild as it had almost fully priced in the rate cut before the meeting. The S&P 500 rose 0.19%, 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields declined, gold prices rose, and the US dollar index weakened slightly [9]. 3.1.2 Dot - Plot Shows Two More Rate Cuts This Year - The Fed's September 2025 economic forecast showed a slight decrease in the risk of stagnation and an increase in the risk of inflation. GDP growth forecasts were raised, unemployment forecasts were slightly lowered, inflation forecasts were slightly raised, and the median federal funds rate for 2025 decreased, indicating two more rate cuts this year [11]. - The narrowing of the central tendency suggested that the Fed believed the predictability of the economy was increasing [12]. 3.1.3 Press Conference Speech Is Hawkish, Reinforcing the Fed's Data - Driven Inertia - Powell's speech at the press conference was hawkish. He emphasized the Fed's independence, stating that decisions were based on data and economic understanding, and individual influence was exerted through persuasion [19]. - He also emphasized that the current restrictive policy was still applicable, the rate cut was a result of risk balancing, and future decisions would be data - dependent [19]. - The market prices were affected by his hawkish remarks. The S&P 500 fell, US Treasury yields rose, gold prices dropped, and the US dollar index increased [20]. 3.2 How to View the Market - In the short term, the US Treasury yield curve may show a bull - steepening pattern. The market may further price in the remaining rate cuts this year, with the 2 - year US Treasury rate expected to fluctuate between 3.44% - 3.84% and the 10 - year rate between 3.9% - 4.3% [21]. - The US dollar index may remain weak, possibly falling below 96. The Fed's rate cuts, weak US economic data, and policy uncertainties contribute to this trend. The Fed's rate cuts are beneficial to China's external interest - rate environment, allowing for the possibility of aggregate monetary policies [23].

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%[4] - Slightly over half of the FOMC officials anticipate at least two more rate cuts this year, while only one cut is expected next year[4] - The decision to cut rates was based on a "shift in the balance of risks," with employment growth slowing and the unemployment rate edging up[4] Employment and Inflation Outlook - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest since late 2021, indicating a shift towards a surplus in the labor market[7] - The Fed maintained its 2025 unemployment rate forecast at 4.5% and PCE inflation at 3%[10] - Inflation has increased, with commodity prices contributing significantly to this rise, although the increases are expected to be moderate and possibly one-time shocks[4][10] Economic Growth Projections - The Fed revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast upward to 1.6% and 2026 to 1.8%[11] - Economic activity is described as slowing, with consumer spending declining in most regions due to economic uncertainty and tariffs[11] - Rate cuts may lower credit costs, potentially boosting consumer confidence and stabilizing the economy next year[11] Market Reactions and Risks - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets initially rose but then fell, with bond yields increasing and the dollar index fluctuating[13] - Risks include higher-than-expected inflation, tighter monetary policy from the Fed, and a sharper-than-anticipated economic downturn[16]

Policy Measures - On September 16, nine departments jointly issued policies to expand service consumption, focusing on five key areas: cultivating service consumption platforms, enriching high-quality service supply, stimulating new consumption, enhancing financial support, and improving statistical monitoring systems[2] - The report outlines 19 specific measures aimed at promoting the quality and expansion of service consumption, thereby unleashing domestic demand potential[2] Industry Insights - In the cultural and tourism sector, the added value of cultural and related industries reached CNY 5.95 trillion in 2023, while tourism and related industries added value was CNY 5.48 trillion[2] - Domestic travel is projected to reach 5.615 billion trips in 2024, with total consumption expected to hit CNY 5.75 trillion[2] - The sports industry is anticipated to grow significantly, with a focus on introducing high-quality international sports events and fostering grassroots sports events like "Village Super" and "Su Super" to create new consumption growth points[2] Investment Recommendations - Service retail sales are expected to grow by 6.2% year-on-year in 2024, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points[2] - Per capita service consumption expenditure is projected to increase by 7.4%, contributing 63% to overall per capita consumption growth[2] - Investment focus areas include "new" cultural tourism projects, quality sports event IPs, and long-term care insurance-related enterprises in the elder care sector[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy progress, lower-than-expected economic growth, and weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment recovery[2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that Kingdee International is acquiring a 62.8% stake in Yunzhijia for 68 million yuan, which will increase its ownership from 7.5% to 70.3% and allow for consolidation in financial statements [7] - Yunzhijia has transitioned to profitability, with a net profit of 4.66 million yuan in the first four months of 2025, aligning with Kingdee's subscription and AI-focused strategy [7] - The acquisition is expected to enhance Kingdee's mobile office capabilities and create a unified entry point for AI and collaboration tools, improving user experience in cloud ERP [7] - The financial impact of the acquisition is anticipated to be limited in the short term, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 at 7.01 billion, 7.90 billion, and 8.95 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 5.68 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.71%, and expected to reach 7.01 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.03% [6][8] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 151 million yuan in 2025, with a significant increase in net profit growth rate of 270.97% in 2026 [6][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to turn positive in 2025 at 0.04 yuan, increasing to 0.31 yuan by 2027 [6][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 346.26 in 2025 to 48.25 by 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [6][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Second - batch 14 science - innovation bond ETFs were launched, with a total of about 40 billion yuan in raised funds. The report analyzes their impact on index component bonds and the potential of component bonds [3][9]. - Despite the continuous adjustment of the bond market, the total scale of credit bond ETFs increased in August, reaching around 350 billion yuan. Science - innovation bond ETFs contributed most of the scale increment, while the scale of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs declined [3][9]. - Since July 18, component bonds of various tenors and implicit ratings have been adjusted to different degrees. Shorter - term bonds are more resilient, and the longer the tenor, the greater the adjustment. There is a certain divergence among investors regarding the future market of component bonds [4][47]. - Based on the experience of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs, the scale of ETFs has a significant impact on component bonds. The upcoming expansion of science - innovation bond ETFs will bring about 40 billion yuan in incremental funds, and component bonds of science - innovation bonds are more resilient than market - making component bonds. However, the excess return of current component bonds may be relatively limited [4][49]. - Considering that interest rates have risen to a stage high, after the listing of the second - batch science - innovation ETFs, the market demand has increased. Without unexpected shocks, the liquidity of component bonds is expected to remain good, and they can be allocated from a coupon - oriented perspective [6][50]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 How Have Credit Bond ETFs Performed Recently? - Despite the continuous adjustment of the bond market, the total scale of credit bond ETFs increased in August, currently around 350 billion yuan. Science - innovation bond ETFs contributed most of the scale increment, with a total increase of 27.8 billion yuan. The scale of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs decreased by 10.7 billion yuan compared to July 18, while the scale of urban investment bond and corporate bond ETFs changed little, and the scale of short - term financing ETFs increased by 5.7 billion yuan [9][11]. - In terms of secondary - market trading activity, the turnover rates of market - making credit bond and science - innovation bond ETFs are in a fluctuating downward trend, with the current 7 - day moving average turnover rates around 20% and 30% respectively. The turnover rate of short - term financing ETFs has been rising, increasing from about 20% to over 50% since the second half of the year [11]. - Since the beginning of the year, among the indices tracked by credit bond ETFs, the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond index has the largest increase (1.53%), followed by the Shenzhen AAA Science - innovation Bond (1.40%) and the ChinaBond AAA Science - innovation Bond (1.24%) [15]. 3.2 How Have the Component Bonds of the Science - innovation Bond Index Performed? - Since the second half of the year, the performance of component bonds of the science - innovation bond index can be divided into three stages: rapid decline in valuation during the ETF application stage in June; intensified bond - grabbing market after the subscription ended on July 7, with component bond valuation inverting; and since the official listing of science - innovation bond ETFs on July 17, the excess spread of component bonds has oscillated and turned positive, showing signs of catch - up decline in the recent two weeks [17][19]. - From the perspective of low - valuation transactions and turnover rates, since the beginning of the year, science - innovation bonds have mostly had low - valuation transactions. After late July, high - valuation transactions occurred intensively, and the turnover rate continued to decline after August, indicating that investors have certain divergence regarding the future market of component bonds [4][17]. - As of September 12, high - grade component bonds of various tenors are still undervalued compared to medium - and short - term notes of the same tenor and rating. Since the bond market adjustment on July 18, component bonds of various tenors and implicit ratings have been adjusted to different degrees, with shorter - term bonds being more resilient [21]. 3.3 Will the Component Bonds Have Excess Performance? - For benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs, in the first quarter, the market was in adjustment, and the scale increased slowly. In the second quarter, the scale grew rapidly, and the excess spread of component bonds decreased significantly. After late July, the scale declined, and the excess spread of component bonds widened [25][26]. - The upcoming expansion of science - innovation bond ETFs will bring about 40 billion yuan in incremental funds, and the component bonds of science - innovation bonds are more resilient than market - making component bonds. However, the excess return of current component bonds may be relatively limited due to the weaker environment for credit spread compression in the fourth quarter, institutions' early "bond hoarding" in the second - batch, and the implementation of positive factors in the first - batch [4][32][49]. 3.4 How to Allocate Component Bonds in the Future? - As of September 12, 10 science - innovation bond ETFs hold a total of 636 individual bonds. Currently, science - innovation bond ETFs prefer component bonds with tenors of 2 - 3 years and 3 - 5 years, with the proportion of holdings in the balance of index component bonds being 12.3% and 10.3% respectively, and the overall portfolio duration ranging from 2.98 to 4.14 years [33]. - Since July 25, the weighted average remaining term of component bonds of science - innovation bond ETFs has shown an inverted V - shape. After the listing of ETFs, the duration was generally lengthened quickly, and then continued to decrease during the adjustment period, currently dropping to 3.73 years [39]. - Considering that interest rates have risen to a stage high, after the listing of the second - batch science - innovation ETFs, the market demand has increased. Without unexpected shocks, the liquidity of component bonds is expected to remain good, and they can be allocated from a coupon - oriented perspective [6][50]. 3.5 Summary - The second - batch 14 science - innovation bond ETFs were launched, with a total of about 40 billion yuan in raised funds. The report analyzes their impact on index component bonds and the potential of component bonds [46]. - Credit bond ETFs' scale increased in August, with science - innovation bond ETFs contributing most of the increment. The Shanghai Urban Investment Bond index had the largest increase since the beginning of the year [3][46]. - Since July 18, component bonds of science - innovation bonds have been adjusted, and there is divergence among investors regarding their future market. The excess return of component bonds may be limited, but they can be allocated from a coupon - oriented perspective [4][47][49].