计算机 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.10.07 AI 电力，能耗与运营的双重革命 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -36% -27% -18% -9% 0% 9% 计算机 沪深300 分析师 杨烨 SAC 证书编号：S0160522050001 yangye01@ctsec.com 分析师 王妍丹 SAC 证书编号：S0160524040002 wangyd01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《政策刺激下，支付交易量有望回暖， 关注支付 IT》 2024-09-28 2. 《财政政策发力，近水楼台先得月， 关注财政 IT》 2024-09-27 3. 《政策强发力，看多计算机板块，关 注券商 IT》 2024-09-27 核心观点 证券研究报告 ❖ AI 耗电量激增，核电等清洁能源需求提升。根据澎湃新闻，目前训练 AI 大模型使用的主流算力芯片英伟达 H100 芯片，一张最大功耗为 700 瓦，即运 行一小时就要耗电 0.7 度。根据 iea 统计，2022 年全球数据中心耗电量约 460TWh，到 2026 年全球数据中心的总用电量可能达到 1000TWh 以上，这个 需求大致 ...

电力设备 / 行业投资策略报告 / 2024.10.06 电力设备与新能源 3Q2024 业绩前瞻 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -29% -21% -14% -6% 2% 9% 电力设备 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 张一弛 SAC 证书编号：S0160522110002 zhangyc02@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《逆变器 8 月出口数据稳增，关注特 高压柔直招标》 2024-09-25 2. 《 新能源车销量激增，风电市场活 跃》 2024-09-16 3. 《二季度光伏业绩见底出清加速，锂 电小幅改善》 2024-09-07 3Q2024 业绩前瞻 核心观点 证券研究报告 ❖ 锂电：电池端，龙头宁德时代壁垒高筑，亿纬锂能储能强势，订单接踵而来。 材料端，今年以来负极、六氟磷酸锂、电解液陆续出现结构性涨价，供给过剩 格局逐步改善中。行业筑底期，经历两年的全产业链价格深度下跌，我们预计 各环节即将先后进入底部反转阶段。 ❖ 光储: 阳光电源是逆变器和储能系统双龙头，组件和储能系统降价后，海外地 面电站光伏和大储需求快速增长，公司受益明显。光伏主产业链方面，目前硅 料、硅片环节 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, indicating a performance better than the relevant market benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The sales of domestic brands continue to grow year-on-year, with several companies achieving record delivery volumes [3]. - NIO's September delivery volume increased by 35.4% year-on-year and 5.0% month-on-month, totaling 21,181 vehicles delivered [3]. - Li Auto's September delivery volume rose by 48.9% year-on-year and 11.6% month-on-month, reaching a historical high of 53,709 vehicles [3]. - Zeekr's September delivery volume surged by 77% year-on-year and 18% month-on-month, with 21,333 vehicles delivered [3]. - Xiaomi's September delivery exceeded 10,000 vehicles, with plans to ramp up production to 20,000 units in October [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Brand Sales - New energy vehicle companies are experiencing sustained year-on-year sales growth, with many achieving record delivery numbers [3]. NIO Performance - In September, NIO delivered 21,181 vehicles, marking a 35.4% increase year-on-year and a 5.0% increase month-on-month [3]. - Cumulative deliveries from January to September reached 149,281 vehicles, up 35.7% year-on-year [3]. Li Auto Performance - Li Auto's September deliveries reached 53,709 vehicles, reflecting a 48.9% year-on-year increase and an 11.6% month-on-month increase [3]. - The total deliveries for the third quarter of 2024 were 152,831 vehicles, up 45.4% year-on-year [3]. Zeekr Performance - Zeekr delivered 21,333 vehicles in September, a 77% year-on-year increase and an 18% month-on-month increase [3]. - Cumulative deliveries from January to September reached 142,873 vehicles, up 81% year-on-year [3]. Xiaomi Performance - Xiaomi's September deliveries surpassed 10,000 vehicles, with plans to increase production to 20,000 units in October [3]. - The company opened 17 new stores in September, bringing the total to 128 across 38 cities [3].

化工行业周报 基础化工 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.10.03 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -26% -19% -12% -5% 2% 9% 基础化工 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 梅宇鑫 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070002 meiyx@ctsec.com 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com | --- | --- | |------------------|------------| | | | | 相关报告 | | | 《化工行业周报》 | 2024-09-24 | | 《化工行业周报》 | 2024-09-10 | | 《化工行业周报》 | 2024-09-03 | 化工板块集体上涨，原油价格下跌 证券研究报告 核心观点 ❖ 本周行情：本周市场综合指数整体上行，上证综指报收 3087.53，本周上涨 12.81%，深证指数本周上涨 17.83%，A 股指数上涨 12.83%；其中化工板块上 涨 15.28%。 ❖ 化工公司行情：本周涨幅前五的股票为：宁新新材（+46.13%）、天晟新材 （+39.24%）、 ...

Investment Rating and Core Views - **Investment Rating**: Overweight (Initiation) [1] - **Core Views**: The company is a pioneer in the ancient gold jewelry market, leveraging its high-end product positioning and differentiated competition to drive growth through brand momentum, single-store efficiency, and store expansion [2] Company Overview - **Company Profile**: Founded in 2009, the company is a leading brand in ancient gold jewelry, focusing on the research, design, and sale of ancient gold products [11] - **Organizational Structure**: The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founder and his son holding a combined 62.03% of the shares. Employee incentives are robust, with multiple employee持股 platforms established [11][12] - **Financial Performance**: The company has shown strong revenue and profit growth, with 2023 revenue reaching RMB 3.18 billion, a 145.6% YoY increase, and net profit reaching RMB 416 million, a 340.4% YoY increase [14] Market and Industry Analysis - **Ancient Gold Market Growth**: The ancient gold market is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected CAGR of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, reaching a market size of RMB 421.4 billion by 2028 [2] - **High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs)**: The company targets HNWIs, with a penetration rate of 5.7% among China's 3.16 million HNWIs in 2022. The company's products cater to the rational, self-indulgent, and social needs of HNWIs [39][40] Growth Drivers - **Brand Momentum and User Expansion**: The company's brand momentum is increasing, with a growing penetration rate among HNWIs and younger, middle-to-high-income consumers [4] - **Single-Store Efficiency**: The company's single-store efficiency is expected to continue improving, driven by product diversity, optimized channel conditions, and price adjustments [2] - **Store Expansion**: The company plans to open 13 new stores in the next two years, maintaining high standards and controlled expansion [2] Product and Channel Strategy - **Product Innovation**: The company focuses on R&D, with the founder leading the product development team. It has launched 324 new products and 419 iterations from 2021 to 2023, with new and iterated products accounting for over 12% of total revenue [33][34] - **Channel Expansion**: The company primarily operates through offline channels, with 88.6% of revenue coming from offline sales in 2023. It focuses on high-end commercial centers in first-tier and new first-tier cities [21] Financial Projections - **Revenue and Profit Forecast**: The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 1.006 billion, RMB 1.435 billion, and RMB 1.818 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.6x, 13.8x, and 10.9x [2] - **Gross Margin and Expense Ratio**: The company's gross margin has remained stable at around 42%, with a declining expense ratio due to economies of scale. The net profit margin improved to 16.7% in H1 2024 [16] Competitive Positioning - **Market Share**: The company holds a 2.0% market share in the ancient gold jewelry market, ranking seventh. It is the only brand among the top ten players that focuses exclusively on ancient gold jewelry and operates all offline stores through a direct model [31][32] - **Comparison with Competitors**: The company's revenue and profit levels are lower than its peers due to its selective store locations and smaller store count. However, its gross and net profit margins are industry-leading, driven by its high-end product positioning and direct operation model [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home furnishing sector, indicating that it is expected to benefit from recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [3][4]. Core Insights - The light industry index rose by 16.47% during the week of September 23-27, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.77 percentage points, ranking 10th among 31 sectors [3][8]. - A series of government policies have been introduced to boost market confidence, including lowering existing mortgage rates and adjusting down payment requirements for home purchases, which are expected to positively impact the home furnishing sector [3][4]. - Consumer spending in the home furnishing and decoration sectors has seen significant growth, with retail sales of furniture and sanitary ware increasing by 8.9% and 12% year-on-year, respectively, from April to August 2024 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The light industry index closed at 1815.30 points, with a weekly increase of 16.47%, and all sub-sectors within light manufacturing experienced gains, particularly home goods and entertainment products [3][8]. - Notable stock performances included significant increases for companies like Shangpin Home, Meike Home, and Gujia Home, with respective gains of 47.1%, 34.1%, and 31.1% [3][8]. Key Data Tracking - In August 2024, residential sales area decreased by 12.6% year-on-year, while the completion area of commercial housing fell by 33.9% [12][16]. - The retail sales of furniture showed a year-on-year decline of 3.7% in August 2024, indicating a downward trend in consumer spending [16][20]. Company Announcements and Industry News - Companies such as Oppein Home and Gujia Home are highlighted as leaders in the customized home furnishing sector, benefiting from improved supply chain efficiency and management capabilities [4][35]. - Recent government meetings emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market and support housing demand through various financial measures [37][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of risk appetite and the opportunity to capitalize on the rebound in consumer spending [1] Summary by Sections Duty-Free Industry - The duty-free sales sentiment index was 29.5 from September 16 to September 22, 2024, indicating a need for improvement due to temporary impacts from a typhoon [15] - Passenger flow in Hainan reached 356,000, recovering to 97.7% of 2019 levels, with Haikou airport seeing a 29% increase in passenger flow [15][19] - The report suggests focusing on China Duty Free Group due to its reasonable valuation and high market share, with new city duty-free stores expected to open in Q4 [28] Hotel Industry - National occupancy rate (OCC) was 53.67%, down 3.14 percentage points week-on-week and down 6.61 percentage points year-on-year [29] - Average daily rate (ADR) was 202.33 CNY, reflecting a 4.22% year-on-year decline [29] - The report recommends focusing on leading hotel chains like Huazhu Group and Jinjiang Hotels for both short-term and long-term investments [36] Education Industry - The report highlights the positive growth in K12 education companies, with a focus on leading firms that have completed compliance transformations [36] - The "Double Reduction" policy has led to a significant decrease in the number of off-campus training institutions, while the quality of education has improved [36][39] - Investment suggestions include major players like New Oriental and TAL Education, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing educational reforms [39] Medical Aesthetics and Cosmetics - The medical aesthetics sector is seen as having significant rebound potential, with companies like Jiangsu Wuzhong expected to perform well due to new product launches [36] - The cosmetics industry is currently facing challenges, but government policies aimed at boosting consumption are expected to improve market sentiment [36] Retail Industry - The report notes that offline retail is likely to recover due to favorable employment and real estate policies, with a focus on department stores [36] - Cross-border e-commerce is expected to benefit from the Fed's interest rate cuts, with recommendations for companies like Jiujiu Technology and Chuangke Industrial [36] Human Resources - The report discusses the stable employment situation, with the urban survey unemployment rate averaging 5.2% in the first eight months of 2024 [43] - It suggests focusing on leading companies in the human resources sector that have strong financial and operational advantages [43]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, indicating a potential recovery in the market due to recent policy adjustments [3][8]. Core Insights - The recent adjustments in housing purchase restrictions in major cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou are expected to boost market confidence and stimulate demand in the real estate sector [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the home furnishing sector as a beneficiary of the real estate market's recovery, highlighting government initiatives aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting consumption [3]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the custom home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home (603833.SH) and Kuka Home (603816.SH), as well as other strong brands in the mattress and home furnishing industry [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Adjustments - On September 29, 2024, major cities announced significant changes to housing purchase policies, with Guangzhou being the first to completely lift all restrictions on home purchases for residents [3]. - Shanghai and Shenzhen also implemented various optimizations to their housing policies, including adjustments to loan policies and purchase qualifications [3]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market and promoting consumption will likely lead to a recovery in the home furnishing sector [3]. - The introduction of long-term special bonds to stimulate consumer spending is expected to release pent-up demand in the home furnishing market [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with strong supply chain efficiency and management capabilities, such as Oppein Home and Kuka Home [3]. - It also suggests monitoring other leading brands in the mattress and home furnishing sectors, including Mousse (001323.SZ) and Juran Home (000785.SZ) [3].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the utilities sector, specifically focusing on the green electricity and carbon markets [1] Core Viewpoints - Green electricity trading generates premium income, with green certificates serving as the sole proof of environmental value [4] - The national carbon market has entered its third compliance cycle, with the CCER market officially restarting in 2023 [4] - The national carbon market is expanding, and indirect emissions are no longer considered, clarifying the boundaries between CCER and green certificates [4] Green Electricity and Green Certificate Market - Green electricity trading is part of medium- and long-term power trading, with electricity energy value and environmental value accounted for separately [9] - Green certificates are the only proof of green electricity's environmental value, and the separation of certificates and electricity breaks transaction boundaries [16] - The renewable energy subsidy gap is widening, and environmental premiums are replacing subsidies through market mechanisms [19] - Green certificates are the basic proof of green electricity consumption, driving the green transformation of electricity demand [22] National Carbon Market - The national carbon market is expanding, with CCER assisting in quota completion [29] - The carbon quota market has transitioned from local pilots to a unified national market, with further expansion expected [31] - The CCER market has restarted after six years, with project methodologies fully updated [32] Linkage Between Green Electricity and Carbon Markets - The environmental value of green electricity lies in reducing carbon emissions, with carbon prices being an important component of electricity prices [35] - Purchased electricity generates indirect emissions, and emission factors clarify the zero-carbon value of green electricity [36] - The national carbon market is expanding to include three new industries, and indirect emissions are not considered to align with international markets [40] - Local markets continue to account for indirect emissions, with green electricity deduction mechanisms being introduced [44] Investment Recommendations - Green electricity operators are expected to benefit from environmental premiums, with companies like Longyuan Power, China Resources Power, and Xintian Green Energy recommended for attention [54]

Group 1: Market Overview - The current market trend is expected to continue for over 2 months, similar to past extreme market conditions observed in December 2005, November 2008, and February 2024[1] - Short-term rebound potential is estimated at 5-10%, aiming to recover relative losses compared to Hong Kong and US markets[1] - Historical analysis shows that past rebounds typically recover about 50% of the previous high declines, indicating a potential recovery from the May 2024 position[1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on high-elasticity growth stocks and brokerage firms, while mid-term strategies should target consumer and real estate sectors[1] - The report suggests that the current market environment favors growth and brokerage sectors due to their higher valuation elasticity[1] - The anticipated recovery in the A-share market is supported by favorable monetary policies, including a 0.5% reduction in reserve requirements and potential further rate cuts[1] Group 3: Policy Implications - Recent monetary policy adjustments include a 20 basis point decrease in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.5%[1] - Five key policies aim to alleviate pressure on household balance sheets in the real estate sector, including lowering existing mortgage rates and standardizing down payment ratios to 15%[1] - The capital market is being stimulated through measures such as facilitating stock buybacks and encouraging long-term capital inflows[1] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected US economic downturns, overseas financial instability, and the possibility of historical patterns failing to hold true[1]