Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Important news: Ant Fund released data on the profitability of its fund investors; the scale of newly issued funds in a single week reached a new high in nearly three years, with science and technology innovation bond ETFs becoming the absolute main force; multiple bond funds announced adjustments to net value precision [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Important News 1.1 Market Dynamics - The reform of fund fees may affect short - term bond funds, and wealth management companies are considering three alternative paths. The CSRC's proposed regulations on redemption fees may increase the cost of short - term redemptions, affecting the investment value of short - term bond funds. Wealth management companies are considering direct bond trading, bond allocation through dedicated accounts, and investing in bond ETFs and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds [8]. - Ant Fund released data on the profitability of its fund investors. With the rise of the A - share market, the overall returns of active equity funds have recovered, and 90% of fund net values have exceeded last year's high. As of September 19, 215 million fund investors on the Ant Fund platform have achieved cumulative profits [8]. - Tibet Dongcai Fund officially changed its name to Dongcai Fund. The company completed the industrial and commercial change registration on September 15 and will subsequently change the names of its public fund products [9]. - The Asset Management Association of China (AMAC) released the public fund sales ranking for the first half of 2025, and securities firms are on the "fast - track" of index investment. In the first half of 2025, the overall public fund sales and custody scale of various institutions increased, and securities firms performed well in the field of index fund sales. The top ten institutions in the equity fund custody scale remained the same as at the end of 2024, while there were some changes in the non - monetary market fund and stock index fund custody scales [9]. 1.2 Product Highlights - The subscribers of the second batch of science and technology innovation bond ETFs were announced, mostly institutional investors. The second batch of 14 science and technology innovation bond ETFs will be listed on September 24, and most of the funds are held by institutional investors, with the proportion of institutional holdings in some funds exceeding 90% [10]. - The scale of newly issued funds in a single week reached a new high in nearly three years, with science and technology innovation bond ETFs becoming the absolute main force. From September 15 to 21, 56 new funds were established, with a total issuance scale of 76.715 billion yuan. Bond funds were particularly prominent, with 21 new bond funds established and a total issuance scale of 48.621 billion yuan, accounting for 63% of the total [12]. - Multiple bond funds announced adjustments to net value precision. Since July, more than 20 bond funds have announced adjustments to net value precision, mainly to avoid the adverse impact of large - scale redemptions on the interests of fund holders [14]. 1.3 Overseas Market - The acceleration of the "going - global" strategy of public funds is expected to bring a second growth curve. Recently, Huatai - Peregrine Asset Management (International) Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Huatai - Peregrine Fund in Hong Kong, obtained relevant licenses from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Many public funds have established overseas subsidiaries in recent years, which is expected to enhance the influence of China's capital market and introduce more funds [14]. - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points. On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the range of 4.00% - 4.25%, restarting the interest - rate cut process suspended since December last year [15]. 2. Market Review - Last week (from September 15 to 19, 2025), most of the A - share market's major broad - based indices showed a downward trend, while most overseas indices showed an upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 1.30%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4501.92, down 0.44%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7170.35, up 0.32%; the CSI 800 Index closed at 4951.69, down 0.24%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7438.19, up 0.21%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3091.00, up 2.34%. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 5.09%, the China Internet 30 Index rose 3.34%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 2.21% [3]. - The power equipment and new energy, and coal industries led the gains last week. The top five industries in the CSI primary industry index in terms of gains and losses were power equipment and new energy (3.61%), coal (3.59%), consumer services (3.52%), automobiles (3.43%), and electronics (2.75%). The bottom five industries were comprehensive (-4.09%), banking (-4.09%), non - ferrous metals (-3.93%), non - bank finance (-3.80%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-2.77%) [19]. 3. Fund Market Review 3.1 Active Equity Fund Performance - In the short - term performance of active equity funds, manufacturing and technology theme funds performed outstandingly. In the past week, the average interval returns of manufacturing and technology theme funds were 2.67% and 2.26% respectively; in the past three months, they were 30.99% and 44.66% respectively; in the past year, the technology and pharmaceutical theme funds performed prominently, with average interval returns of 96.18% and 59.78% respectively [20]. - Half of the active equity funds achieved positive returns last week, and the median interval return of active equity funds was 0.35%. Among different sectors, manufacturing and technology theme funds had the most prominent performance, with median interval returns of 2.56% and 1.95% respectively [23]. 3.2 Top - Performing Fund Performance Statistics - The top - performing active equity fund last week was Jinxin Steady Strategy A (007872.OF), a technology - themed fund, with an interval return of 15.24% [25]. - The report also listed the top five industry - themed funds in terms of interval returns last week, including their basic information and performance [26]. 4. ETF Fund Statistics 4.1 ETF Fund Performance - In terms of the average interval return last week, the top three ETF categories were technology (2.34%), manufacturing (1.78%), and international broad - based (0.84%) theme ETFs. In the past month, the top three were technology (15.57%), manufacturing (12.69%), and A - share broad - based (10.30%) theme ETFs [27]. 4.2 ETF Fund Capital Flow Statistics - In terms of capital inflows last week, the top categories were financial real estate (134.94 billion yuan), technology (87.83 billion yuan), and manufacturing (66.85 billion yuan) theme ETFs. The top categories in terms of capital outflows were A - share broad - based (148.82 billion yuan), bond (40.96 billion yuan), and commodity futures (16.30 billion yuan) theme ETFs [3]. - There were 448 ETFs with net capital inflows and 592 ETFs with net capital outflows last week. The top three ETFs in terms of capital inflows were Cathay CSI All - Share Securities Company ETF, Fullgoal CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, and E Fund China Securities Robot Industry ETF. The top three in terms of capital outflows were Huaxia SSE STAR Market 50 ETF, Bosera CSI Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond ETF, and Huatai - Peregrine SSE 300 ETF [34]. 4.3 ETF Fund Premium and Discount Statistics - As of September 19, 2025, the top three ETFs in terms of premium rate were Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF (2.87%), Bank of Communications 180 Governance ETF (1.87%), and Cathay CSI Consumer Electronics Theme ETF (1.06%). The top three in terms of discount rate were Huatai - Peregrine CSI A100 ETF (0.58%), Huaxia ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF (0.51%), and ICBC Daiwa Nikkei 225 ETF (0.49%) [36]. 5. Fund Market Dynamics 5.1 Fund Manager Changes - Last week, 47 public funds had new fund managers, involving 39 fund managers from 24 fund management companies. The fund management companies with the largest number of public funds with new fund managers were BOC Fund, Morgan Fund, CCB Fund, E Fund, and Invesco Great Wall Fund [38]. - Last week, 46 public funds had fund manager departures, involving 29 fund managers from 23 fund management companies. The fund management companies with the largest number of public funds with departing fund managers were Zheshang Fund, BOC Fund, and Morgan Fund [41]. 5.2 Newly Established Funds Last Week - A total of 63 public funds were newly established last week, with a combined issuance share of 74.828 billion. The fund type with the largest number of new funds was passive index funds, with 16 newly established and a combined issuance share of 9.095 billion. The fund type with the largest combined issuance share was passive index bond funds, with 15 newly established and a combined issuance share of 44.943 billion [44]. - The fund management company with the largest combined issuance share was Tianhong Fund, with newly established public funds including Tianhong CSI A500 Index Enhanced A, Tianhong China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index A, and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Tianhong, with a combined issuance share of 6.408 billion [44].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a nominal year-on-year increase of 3.4%, which is lower than expected. Excluding automobiles, the year-on-year increase is 3.7% [6][13] - For the first eight months, the total retail sales amounted to 323,906 billion yuan, with a nominal year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and a 5.1% increase excluding automobiles [6][13] - The jewelry sector continues to show high growth, with a year-on-year increase of 16.8% in August, driven by self-indulgent consumption and rising gold prices [6][20] - Online retail sales for the first eight months grew by 9.6%, with August online retail sales at 12,993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [6][29] Summary by Sections Overall Retail Data - In August, retail sales of goods increased by 3.6% year-on-year, while dining revenue rose by 2.1% [6][14] - The CPI in August decreased by 0.4%, with food and beverage prices down by 2.5% [6][14] Retail Sales by Category - Essential goods showed weak demand for tobacco and alcohol, possibly due to stricter regulations, while other categories remained relatively stable [6][20] - In August, the retail sales of household appliances increased by 14.3% year-on-year, and furniture sales rose by 18.6% [6][22] Online Retail Data - The online retail sales of physical goods for the first eight months reached 80,964 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, accounting for 28.2% of total retail sales [6][29] - The online sales of food, clothing, and daily necessities saw year-on-year increases of 15%, 2.4%, and 5.7%, respectively [6][29]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][56]. Core Views - The company is a leading global foundry in integrated circuit manufacturing, ranking fifth in global market share and is a leader in China's semiconductor industry [8]. - The semiconductor market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of $185.11 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20% [33]. - The company has a comprehensive process platform that meets diverse customer needs, benefiting from the localization of chip manufacturing [41]. - Revenue and profit forecasts indicate a steady growth trajectory, with expected revenues of $9.26 billion, $10.82 billion, and $12.63 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [51][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 2000 and has established itself as a major player in the foundry market, providing 8-inch and 12-inch wafer foundry services [12]. - It has a strong management team with extensive industry experience and no single controlling shareholder [21][24]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese semiconductor market is experiencing robust growth, driven by local production demands and geopolitical factors that favor domestic foundries [34]. - The foundry industry has high entry barriers due to significant capital requirements, leading to a concentrated market structure [38]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.53% from 2018 to 2024 [26]. - The first half of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 22.04% year-on-year, indicating a return to profitability [26]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $9.26 billion in 2025, with a net profit of $679 million, reflecting a profit margin improvement [51][54]. - The projected gross margins for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21.17%, 23.31%, and 26.14% respectively, indicating a positive trend in profitability [52]. Competitive Position - The company maintains a diverse customer base across various sectors, including telecommunications and consumer electronics, which supports its revenue expansion [43]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with a current monthly capacity of 991,300 equivalent 8-inch wafers [46].

Core Insights - SK On plans to mass-produce all-solid-state batteries by 2029, marking a significant advancement in battery technology [3][39] - The solid-state battery sector has seen strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of 48.53% in the solid-state battery index [3][7] - The lithium battery sector continues to grow, with a year-to-date increase of 46.79% in the lithium battery index [3][7] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.3% this week, while the solid-state battery index decreased by 2.09% [3][7] - Year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 13.97%, and the lithium equipment sector has surged by 122.31% [3][7] - Trading volume for the entire A-share market was 12,589.23 billion yuan, up 8.23% week-on-week [3][7] Price Tracking - Lithium carbonate (battery-grade Li2CO3 ≥99.5%) is priced at 73,000 yuan per ton, up by 1500 yuan from the previous week [3][13] - The price of lithium iron phosphate (domestic) remains stable at 34,300 yuan per ton [3][13] - The price of ternary materials (523) increased by 6.5 yuan per kilogram to 115.3 yuan [3][13] Industry News - Several companies are advancing in solid-state battery technology, including: - Ganfeng Lithium has achieved trial production of solid-state batteries for certain vehicle models [3][31] - Panasonic Energy is focusing on solid-state battery production, aiming for sample shipments by 2026 [3][32] - Tianqi Lithium has commenced a pilot project for producing 50 tons of lithium sulfide [3][35] - Zhonggu Shidai has completed Pre-A financing to accelerate the industrialization of solid-state batteries [3][30] Demand Tracking - In the first eight months of 2025, the production of power and other batteries reached 970.7 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 54.3% [3][41] - The power battery installation volume for the same period was 417.9 GWh, up 43.1% year-on-year [3][41] - Exports of power batteries totaled 111.5 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.3% [3][41]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to August 2025, general public budget revenue totaled CNY 14.82 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[2] - General public budget expenditure for the same period reached CNY 17.93 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[2] - In August 2025, general public budget revenue was CNY 1.24 trillion, up 2.0% year-on-year, while expenditure was CNY 1.86 trillion, reflecting a 0.8% increase[4] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue continues to outperform non-tax revenue, with August tax revenue growing by 3.4% year-on-year, marking five consecutive months of positive growth[5] - Manufacturing accounted for over 30% of total tax revenue, with a growth rate exceeding 5% in the first eight months of 2025[5] - Securities transaction stamp duty surged by 226% in August, driven by increased market activity, contributing significantly to tax revenue growth[8] Fiscal Pressure and Challenges - The fiscal data for August indicates mounting pressure, with weakened consumption impacting tax revenue and a declining real estate sector exacerbating fiscal income challenges[23] - Government fund revenue fell by 5.7% year-on-year in August, primarily due to a 5.8% drop in land transfer income[18] - Infrastructure spending remains weak, with related expenditures showing a significant decline of 13.2% when combined[13] Future Outlook and Policy Implications - The necessity for incremental policy measures is rising due to anticipated economic pressures and the nearing end of government bond issuance in the fourth quarter[23] - The potential for early utilization of next year's debt quota and the timing of policy financial tools will be critical in supporting economic stability[23]

Core Insights - The report indicates a shift from profit to loss in self-breeding pig farming, driven by ongoing capacity regulation policies [1][7][33] - The overall investment rating for the agricultural sector remains optimistic [1] Group 1: Swine Farming Data Tracking - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.80% in August compared to July, indicating a slight contraction in supply [19] - The price of market pigs has declined, with the average selling price on September 18 being 13.15 CNY/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 2.74% [28][29] - Profitability in self-breeding and purchased pig farming has turned negative, with losses of 24.44 CNY/head and 199.31 CNY/head respectively as of September 19 [33][36] Group 2: Poultry Farming Data Tracking - The average price of white feather broilers on September 19 was 6.88 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.99% [34][37] - The profit from white feather broiler farming was negative at -1.56 CNY/bird [34][37] Group 3: Animal Health Data Tracking - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, with significant growth in vaccine approvals and product launches [43] - The industry is seeing a recovery in sales, with notable increases in the issuance of various vaccines [43] Group 4: Seed Industry Data Tracking - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn as of September 19 were 2430 CNY/ton, 3032 CNY/ton, and 2360 CNY/ton respectively, with corn prices showing a year-to-date increase of 11.2% [47][49] Group 5: Pet Industry Data Tracking - Pet food exports in July amounted to 930 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0% [52][53] - Domestic sales of pet food continue to grow, with e-commerce platforms showing an overall growth rate of 8% in August [55][57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the bond market was relatively stable, with interest rates first declining and then rising. Market sentiment improved in the first half of the week as the market speculated on the central bank restarting treasury bond trading, leading to a decline in interest rates and credit bond yields. In the second half of the week, influenced by factors such as China - US negotiations, there was a slight upward movement. Credit spreads fluctuated slightly overall, with long - term credit spreads rising [2]. - Since the market adjustment began in July, institutional behavior has changed. Large banks have shifted from net selling to net buying of interest - rate bonds, mainly focusing on varieties with a maturity of less than 5 years. Funds and securities firms have sold more long - term interest - rate bonds, with relatively scattered buyers. For credit bonds, the net buying of wealth management products, insurance, and other product categories has been relatively stable. State - owned banks' purchase of short - term interest - rate bonds also contributes to short - end stability. The trading volume of long - term credit bonds has significantly decreased recently. It is speculated that the inflection point of the continuous upward trend of long - term credit bond yields is approaching [3]. - Compared with the year - to - date low in early July, the yields of medium - and long - term credit bonds with a maturity of 4 years and above have increased significantly. Compared with the high point in March, the yields of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years have declined by more than 10bp, and the yields of ultra - long - term credit bonds are slightly higher than the year - to - date high. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, there is limited room for a significant reduction in credit bond spreads, but the stability of the short end is highly certain [4]. - Considering the current low funding rates, weak fundamentals, and the strong volatility - resistance ability of short - term bonds, short - term bonds with a maturity of around 2 years have good investment value. Currently, the price - ratio of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds (Two - Yong Bonds) to medium - term notes has reverted to the mean, reducing their trading value. Their future performance mainly depends on interest - rate trends. If interest rates decline, there is still room for further decline. The trading volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds has decreased significantly, and the yields of some varieties have exceeded the year - to - date high, making them suitable for allocation. However, for trading - oriented institutions, especially those with less stable liability ends, the trading opportunities in the fourth quarter are limited, and it is advisable to wait appropriately. For allocation - oriented institutions, they can gradually start allocating [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Institutional Behavior and Point Observation 3.1.1 What are the characteristics of institutional behavior? - Since July, large banks have increased their net buying of interest - rate bonds, while funds and securities firms have increased their net selling. Large banks are more inclined to buy short - term interest - rate bonds rather than long - term ones. There is a mismatch in the maturity between the purchasing willingness of large banks and the selling willingness of funds and securities firms, which will affect the market trend. For credit bonds, the overall behavior is relatively stable. The net buying of insurance, wealth management products, and other product categories is relatively stable, while the selling of securities firms, city commercial banks, and joint - stock commercial banks is also relatively stable. Large banks' selling has decreased since July. The net buying of rural commercial banks in the secondary market of credit bonds has remained at a good level, but the overall volume is limited. Since the bond market adjustment in July, funds' demand for long - term credit bonds has weakened significantly, and they have continuously sold long - term credit bonds. Insurance's net buying of long - term credit bonds has declined to a relatively low level in recent weeks [10][14][18]. 3.1.2 Credit bond point observation - Compared with the year - to - date high on March 18, the current credit bond yields are still lower. Yields of bonds with a maturity of less than 2 years are about 30bp lower, those with a maturity of 3 - 5 years are about 20bp lower, and those with a maturity of more than 5 years are only about 5bp lower. Credit spreads are significantly lower than the high point in March, with spreads of bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years being about 20bp lower. Compared with the low point on July 7, the short - end adjustment of bonds with a maturity of 2 years and below is relatively small, while the adjustment of bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years is particularly large. The weak fundamentals and relatively loose funding rates provide a stable foundation for the short end. The relatively stable purchasing power of important buyers of credit bonds, such as insurance and wealth management products, and large banks' preference for short - term interest - rate bonds also indirectly support credit bonds [22][26][30]. 3.1.3 Investment thinking and suggestions for the portfolio - From the perspectives of the funding situation, institutional behavior, and anti - decline ability, appropriate credit risk - taking in short - term credit bonds is still worthy of attention. Currently, the volume of credit bonds with a remaining maturity of less than 3 years, a valuation of more than 2.1%, and an implicit rating of AA(2) and above exceeds 1 trillion yuan. The price - ratio of Two - Yong Bonds to medium - term notes has reverted to around 0, reducing their trading value. Their future performance depends on interest - rate trends. The yields of ultra - long - term credit bonds are close to the year - to - date high, and the trading volume has dropped to a low point. They have allocation value, and allocation - oriented institutions can gradually allocate [32][34][37]. 3.2 What to buy in credit? 3.2.1 It is recommended to focus on high - grade Two - Yong Bonds - This week, the price - ratio of AAA Two - Yong Bonds to medium - term notes has declined significantly. The price - ratio of 5 - year AAA - rated Tier 2 capital bonds to 5 - year AAA medium - term notes has dropped by more than 5bp this week. The price - ratio of short - term urban investment bonds to medium - term notes has declined significantly and is close to the year - to - date low, with relatively low cost - effectiveness. The price - ratio of long - term weak - quality urban investment bonds to medium - term notes has increased recently and is currently positive [41][43]. 3.2.2 Focus on high - coupon assets with a maturity of around 2 years - Currently, the proportion of urban investment bonds with a valuation of more than 2.2% is 38.6%, that of non - financial industrial bonds is 26.1%, and that of Two - Yong Bonds is 34.7%. Bonds with a maturity of around 2 years and a valuation of more than 2.2% have good value. For urban investment bonds, it is recommended to focus on bonds with a maturity of around 2 years issued by entities such as Xi'an High - tech Holdings Co., Ltd., Henan Airport Group Investment Co., Ltd., and Zhuhai Huafa Group Co., Ltd. For industrial bonds, it is recommended to focus on 2 - year bonds of important local state - owned real - estate enterprises and 2 - year or less bonds of non - real - estate industrial entities [45][47][49]. 3.3 Market Review: Yields Fluctuated 3.3.1 How was the market performance? - This week, credit bond yields fluctuated, with long - term yields generally rising and some bonds with a maturity of 7 years and above adjusting by more than 3bp, while short - term Two - Yong Bonds generally declined. Credit spreads showed a divergent trend, with short - term spreads decreasing significantly, and spreads of ultra - short - term bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year generally decreasing by more than 4bp. From a daily perspective, yields fluctuated upward this week, showing a V - shaped trend. Credit spreads also showed a divergent trend, with short - term spreads decreasing on Mondays and Fridays and long - term spreads widening significantly on Tuesdays and Wednesdays [51][55][56]. 3.3.2 Insurance's allocation strength declined, and funds turned to net buying - The scale of insurance companies' credit bond allocation decreased compared with the previous week. This week, the net buying scale of insurance was 8.092 billion yuan, a 36.8% decrease from the previous week. The net buying volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years was 2.204 billion yuan, with a slight increase in the增持 strength. Funds turned to net buying. This week, funds net - bought 6.331 billion yuan of credit bonds, mainly focusing on bonds with a maturity of 1 - 5 years, with an增持 scale of 11.869 billion yuan. However, they still continued to net - sell ultra - long - term bonds, selling 2.938 billion yuan this week. The scale of wealth management products remained basically the same as last week. As of September 14, the scale of bank wealth management products was 31.07 trillion yuan. The allocation strength of wealth management products was stable, and the allocation strength of other product categories increased slightly. This week, the增持 scale of wealth management products in credit bonds was 20.32 billion yuan, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week. The net buying scale of other products was 13.386 billion yuan, a 20.7% increase from the previous week [58][60][63]. 3.3.3 Transaction proportion: The proportion of transactions within 1 year remains low - The proportion of medium - and short - term transactions (within 3 years) of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds remains relatively high, and the proportion of transactions of Two - Yong Bonds with a maturity of 3 - 5 years is still not low, indicating that general credit bonds are shortening their duration, and Two - Yong Bonds still have strong trading characteristics [67].

Group 1 - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook based on recent market performance [2][5] - The company's mineral resources are abundant, with stable operations in its existing mines, producing nickel, cobalt, copper, lead, and zinc [8][9] - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 15,534 tons of nickel, 1,435 tons of cobalt, 11,562 tons of copper, 5,029 tons of lead, and 23,331 tons of zinc, with respective year-on-year changes of -1.91%, -0.49%, 1.22%, 13.75%, and 5.32% [9][10] Group 2 - The company is making steady progress on its undeveloped copper mines, with expectations to enter the construction phase this year [30][33] - The Pakistan Siyadik copper mine has a resource volume of 3.78 million tons, with all relevant approval processes applied for and largely approved as of the first half of 2025 [30][31] - The Afghanistan Aynak copper mine, with a resource volume of 12.36 million tons, has seen significant progress, with the access road completed and mining operations expected to start by the end of 2025 [33][34] Group 3 - The report draws comparisons with Hongda Co., indicating that the company's valuation in the non-ferrous metal sector is expected to be reassessed positively [34][36] - Since the breakthrough in project progress on August 2, 2025, the market capitalization of the company has increased by approximately 80.15 billion and 85.01 billion for its A and H shares respectively [36][38] - The company holds a 75% stake in the Aynak copper mine and an 80% stake in the Siyadik copper mine, corresponding to an equity resource volume of approximately 12.29 million tons [38][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Views - In October 2025, the intensity of convertible bond clause games may rise again. There are 47 convertible bonds whose non - downward - revision cooling periods end in October, significantly higher than August - September. And 18 convertible bonds' non - call cooling periods end, the second - highest this year [2][6]. - In terms of downward revision, among the convertible bonds whose downward - revision cooling periods end before October 2025, 6 convertible bonds worth over 2 billion yuan will start downward - revision counting. The proportion of convertible bonds proposing downward - revision announcements in 2025 is 12.5%. As the remaining term shortens and the equity market reaches a historical high, the probability of downward revision may increase. Since late August, the valuation of convertible bonds has declined, opening up price space for some games [2][8]. - Regarding call provisions, 21 convertible bonds end their call cooling periods before October 2025. Excluding Jingyuan Convertible Bond and Jinlun Convertible Bond, the parities of the rest are above 130 yuan as of September 19. With the continued prosperity of the equity market, the call pressure on individual bonds is not low. The convertible bond market scale is about to fall below 60 billion yuan, and the supply - demand contradiction persists, so the valuation may be strongly supported [2][13]. - As the equity market's rise slows down and the convertible bond valuation remains high, alpha returns from convertible bonds become more important. Investors may pay more attention to clause games. It is recommended to cherish the window period and select relevant targets from the clause + theme dimensions, especially those with certain demands and price space [2][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Attention to the upcoming wave of convertible bond clause games - In October 2025, there are 47 convertible bonds whose non - downward - revision cooling periods end, and 18 whose non - call cooling periods end, providing more clause - game opportunities compared to the same period in the past five years [2][6]. - In the downward - revision aspect, 6 large - scale convertible bonds will start downward - revision counting. The probability of downward revision may increase due to factors such as the short remaining term and high equity market position. Since late August, the valuation decline has created game space [2][8]. - For call provisions, 21 convertible bonds end their call cooling periods before October 2025. After exclusions, most have parities above 130 yuan. The call pressure is not low, and the valuation may be supported by the supply - demand contradiction [2][13]. 2. Market trends in a week - As of Friday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 1.30% for the week, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 473.61, down 1.55%. The top - rising industries in the stock market are power equipment and new energy (+3.61%), coal (+3.59%), and consumer services (+3.52%), while the declining industries are comprehensive (-4.09%), banking (-4.09%), and non - ferrous metals (-3.93%) [15]. - No new convertible bonds were listed this week. 79 convertible bonds rose, accounting for 18%. The top - five gainers are Jingxing Convertible Bond (26.23%), Hengshuai Convertible Bond (21.84%), etc. 193 convertible bonds' conversion premium ratios increased, accounting for 45%. The top - five in valuation change are Jiete Convertible Bond (16.86%), Jingke Convertible Bond (14.61%), etc. [17]. 3. Important shareholders' convertible bond reduction - Companies that issued convertible bond reduction announcements this week are Jieneng Fengdian, Tianhao Energy, Jianfan Biology, and Nanjing Medicine [24]. - Many companies' major shareholders have reduced their holdings of convertible bonds, such as Zhejiang Yuesheng Group's reduction of Xingang Convertible Bond [25]. 4. Convertible bond issuance progress - The approval rhythm in the primary market has accelerated. Huichuangda (650 million yuan), Huaxiang Co., Ltd. (1.308 billion yuan), etc. are at the board - of - directors' proposal stage. Tonghe Technology (522 million yuan), Weike Precision (630 million yuan), etc. have passed the general meeting of shareholders. Shenyu Co., Ltd. (500 million yuan), Ruike Da (1 billion yuan) have passed the issuance review committee [26][27]. 5. Private EB project update - There is no progress update on private EB projects this week [28]. 6. Style & Strategy: The convertible bond market style was flat this week - All styles in the convertible bond market were not prominent. As of the last trading day of this week, the excess return of high - rated convertible bonds over low - rated ones was 0.10pct, that of large - amount convertible bonds over small - amount ones was - 0.22pct, and that of equity - biased convertible bonds over debt - biased ones was 0.03pct [30]. 7. One - week convertible bond valuation performance: Convertible bond valuation declined - The convertible bond market's 100 - yuan premium ratio fell to 28.66%, down 0.34% from the previous week, at the 84% historical percentile in the past six months and 92.4% in the past year. The median conversion premium ratio of all - caliber convertible bonds decreased by 1.4pct to 25.91%, and the market - value - weighted conversion premium ratio (excluding banks) decreased by 0.62pct to 39.45% [39]. - For equity - biased convertible bonds, the median conversion premium ratio was 9.71%, down 1.75pct from the previous week, at the 77.3% historical percentile in the past six months. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the median pure - debt premium ratio was 10.1%, down 1.91pct from the previous week, at the 73.9% historical percentile in the past six months [39]. - In terms of extreme pricing, as of the last trading day of this week, there was 1 convertible bond below par value, 0 below the debt floor, and 4 with a YTM greater than 3, at the 9.1%, 0%, and 10% historical percentiles since 2016 respectively [41]. - The median YTM of bank convertible bonds was - 2.68%, 4.56pct lower than the 3 - year AAA corporate bond yield. The median YTM of AA - to AA + debt - biased convertible bonds was - 1.24%, 3.36pct lower than the 3 - year AA corporate bond yield [45]. - The adjusted 100 - yuan premium ratio decreased. The adjusted 100 - yuan premium ratio considering various factors was 14.37%, at the 82.6% historical percentile in the past six months and 66.1% since 2018. The adjusted 100 - yuan premium ratio considering only the debt floor was at the 81.7% historical percentile in the past six months and 29.7% since 2018 [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Views - The bond market remained volatile in September. Regulatory disturbances occurred in the first half, and the better-than-expected China-US negotiations in the second half. The current financial market's interbank idle circulation is not severe, so there's no need for large-scale financial supervision. The central bank maintains a supportive stance, so the pattern of a ceiling on interest rates won't change. The 10-year Treasury bond at 1.8% and the 5-year at 1.6% have allocation value. It's recommended to seize the left-side opportunity, hold old 10-year Treasury bonds and 2 - 3-year medium to high-grade credit bonds in the short term, and gradually switch to 25T6 later [3]. - Under weak fundamentals, strict financial supervision is likely, but the regulatory risk in this round is limited compared to history. The current idle circulation problem in the financial market is not prominent, and the central bank's "anti-idle circulation" in the Q2 2025 monetary policy report mainly refers to the "enterprise - finance" level. The possibility of a systematic adjustment in the bond market is limited [3]. - The China-US phone call has a complex impact on the stock market. In the short term, it's more beneficial. For the bond market, the implementation of the negotiation results may delay the use of aggregate monetary policy tools in Q4. Considering the 10-year Treasury bond interest rate ceiling of about 1.9% in Q1 and the 10bp interest rate cut in May, the current 1.8% 10-year Treasury bond has significant allocation value [3]. - From September 15th to 19th, funds were slightly tight, and yields generally rose. The progress of China-US negotiations, poor Treasury bond issuance results, and Shanghai's property tax adjustment were negative factors, while the weak economic data in October was positive. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 1.19BP to 1.88%, and the 10-year CDB bond yield fell 0.93BP to 2.02% [3]. - As of September 14th, the wealth management scale increased slightly, and the duration decreased. The public fund duration decreased to 2.30, and the divergence degree decreased, with a slight increase in market consensus [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Whether to Worry about Strict Regulatory Risks - In a weak economic environment, financial institutions may engage in regulatory arbitrage due to profit - seeking motives under loose monetary conditions. However, the current financial market's idle circulation is not serious, and the central bank maintains a supportive attitude, so the bond market may adjust, but the pattern of a ceiling on interest rates remains [7][15]. 1.1 2013: On - balance - sheet Interbank Expansion and the Money Crunch - In the first half of 2013, the macro - background was weak fundamentals, loose monetary policy, and strong expectations of stimulus policies. Banks had a strong motivation for business expansion, leading to significant growth in interbank liabilities and a surge in wealth management business. The tightening of monetary policy and financial supervision had a significant impact on the bond market [16][21][25]. 1.2 2016: Liability - side Driven Capital Out of the Balance Sheet - In 2016, the economic downturn led to weak real - sector financing demand. Banks faced pressure on the liability side and used active liability management and asset - side allocation to form inter - bank chains. The financial de - leveraging starting from October 2016 and the subsequent tightening of fundamentals, inter - bank supervision, and monetary policy had a large impact on the bond market [28][35][38]. 2. How to View This Round of the Head - of - State Phone Call - Analyzing Trump's social media posts after the two phone calls, this round of the phone call achieved more results. It's expected that the scope of trade restrictions may be narrowed, and the fentanyl tariff may be reduced. For the stock market, it's more beneficial in the short term, but it may reduce the possibility of large - scale domestic incremental policies. For the bond market, it may delay the use of aggregate monetary policy tools in Q4, and the 1.8% 10 - year Treasury bond has allocation value [39][41][44]. 3. The Decline of the Bond Market Slows Down - From September 15th to 19th, the central bank's open - market operations were net injections, and funds were slightly tight. Bond yields generally rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 1.19bp to 1.88% and the 10 - year CDB bond yield falling 0.93bp to 2.02%. Different factors affected the bond market on each trading day [46][50][51]. 4. The Wealth Management Scale Increases Slightly - As of September 14th, the wealth management's existing scale reached 31.07 trillion yuan, with a week - on - week increase of 238.2 billion yuan. The new - issued wealth management scale from September 8th to 14th was 207.76 billion yuan. In September, the scale of fixed - income products increased, and the net - breaking rate decreased slightly [52][54][57]. 5. Duration - From September 15th to 19th, the public fund duration decreased by 0.02 to 2.30 compared to September 12th, with a weekly average of 2.39. The duration divergence degree decreased, and market consensus increased slightly [61].