Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Despite the impact of exchange rates, the company has achieved significant year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth, positioning it as a strong performer in the medium to long term [1] - The company expects a substantial increase in net profit for Q3 2024, with estimates ranging from 6.80 to 7.30 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.67% to 58.53% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.62% to 16.61% [4][5] - The company is benefiting from structural demand for printed circuit boards driven by emerging computing scenarios such as high-performance servers and artificial intelligence [5] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.21 to 18.71 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 91.05% to 96.29% [5] - The company has made significant investments in R&D in data communication, high-speed networking equipment, and data centers, leading to the successful launch of high-end products [5] - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are set at 115.30 billion yuan, 148.22 billion yuan, and 192.70 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 25.36 billion yuan, 32.72 billion yuan, and 44.73 billion yuan [5][6] Operational Developments - The construction of the company's production base in Thailand is progressing well, with the first phase expected to begin trial production in Q4 2024 [5] - The company is actively upgrading and expanding its production capabilities to ensure efficient operations across different production bases [5] Market Outlook - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for high-speed switches and advanced networking products, with expectations of further penetration in the market [5] - The anticipated growth in the company's earnings and revenue reflects a strong outlook for the printed circuit board industry, driven by technological advancements and market demand [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is partnering with Xinxuan Holdings to expand into live-streaming e-commerce, leveraging its extensive offline retail experience and Xinxuan's strong influence in live-streaming platforms [2] - The joint venture, Hangzhou Lianqi Future Co Ltd, will be 45% owned by the company and its management team, with Xinxuan Holdings holding 10% [2] - The joint venture aims to synergize the company's offline retail expertise with Xinxuan's live-streaming capabilities, particularly in the maternal and child lifestyle category, which accounts for approximately 80% of Xinxuan's annual GMV (around 40 billion yuan) [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 8,752.59 million yuan in 2023 to 11,241.66 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.48% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 105 million yuan in 2023 to 366 million yuan in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 100.23% in 2024 [4] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.10 yuan in 2023 to 0.33 yuan in 2026 [4] - ROE is expected to improve from 3.35% in 2023 to 10.31% in 2026 [4] Operational Metrics - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable, ranging from 29.6% in 2023 to 30.4% in 2026 [5] - Operating margin is expected to increase from 1.7% in 2023 to 4.3% in 2026 [5] - The company's asset turnover efficiency is improving, with total asset turnover days decreasing from 359 days in 2023 to 327 days in 2026 [5] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio is expected to decline from 85.17X in 2023 to 34.01X in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [4] - PB ratio is projected to decrease from 2.90X in 2023 to 3.51X in 2026 [4] - EV/EBITDA is forecasted to drop from 12.2X in 2023 to 10.6X in 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue showed steady growth, driven by its own-brand business and closed-system product revenue from enterprise clients [3] - The company continues to invest heavily in R&D, particularly in heated tobacco (HNB) and medical vaporization products, positioning itself for future growth [4] - The global HNB market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% from 2023 to 2028, reaching USD 75.51 billion by 2028 [4] - The company is expected to benefit from increasing overseas demand for new tobacco products and potential market share gains from major clients [4] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 3.286 billion, up 14.1% YoY, while net profit declined by 22.5% YoY to RMB 379 million [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 8.323 billion, up 4.0% YoY, and net profit of RMB 1.062 billion, down 11.9% YoY [3] - The company's own-brand revenue grew by 71.9% YoY in the first half of 2024, reaching RMB 1.116 billion, with continued strong growth expected in Q3 [3] - R&D expenses increased by 23.7% YoY in the first half of 2024, reaching RMB 760 million [4] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 1.7 billion, RMB 2.05 billion, and RMB 2.48 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 19.87% and 16.65% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [5] - Net profit growth is expected to accelerate to 20.45% and 20.98% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [5] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to be 43x, 35x, and 29x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on digital marketing and rapid response to consumer demand for its own-brand products [3] - It is expanding its international market presence and localizing operations to enhance its competitive edge [3] - The company's HNB product portfolio is gaining recognition, and potential orders from major clients like British American Tobacco could drive future growth [4] Financial Ratios - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 38.81% in 2023 to 40.88% by 2026 [7] - ROE is projected to increase from 7.68% in 2023 to 9.05% by 2026 [7] - The company's net debt ratio is expected to remain negative, indicating a strong financial position [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the brokerage sector is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The brokerage sector is expected to see upward price movement supported by performance elasticity, with a notable increase in A-share trading volume reaching 3.48 trillion yuan on October 8, 2024, marking a historical high [5] - A-share brokerages have shown a rebound, while H-share brokerages have declined, indicating that the A/H premium still has room for growth compared to historical averages [5] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant performance improvement in brokerages due to increased trading volumes, with estimated profit increments of 9%, 19%, and 28% for average daily trading volumes of 1.5 trillion, 2.0 trillion, and 2.5 trillion yuan, respectively [5] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on leading brokerages with improved return on equity (ROE) due to resource optimization and risk control, specifically recommending stocks like China Merchants Securities, Huatai Securities, CITIC Securities, GF Securities, and East Money [3][4] Key Company Ratings - China Merchants Securities: Market Cap 185.93 billion yuan, Rating: "Accumulate" [4] - Huatai Securities: Market Cap 174.77 billion yuan, Rating: "Accumulate" [4] - CITIC Securities: Market Cap 443.43 billion yuan, Rating: "Accumulate" [4] - GF Securities: Market Cap 94.35 billion yuan, Rating: "Not Rated" [4] - East Money: Market Cap 384.54 billion yuan, Rating: "Accumulate" [4] Market Performance - On October 8, 2024, A-share brokerages rose by 10.87%, while H-share brokerages fell by 27.60%, indicating a significant divergence in performance [5] - The A/H premium for major brokerages has expanded, with premiums of -2%, -6%, and -17% for CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Merchants Securities, respectively, compared to historical averages of 60%, 65%, and 114% [5] Sensitivity Analysis - The report includes a sensitivity analysis showing that brokerages with higher revenue from brokerage services, such as East Money, Huatai Securities, and Changjiang Securities, will experience greater profit elasticity with increased trading volumes [7]

Group 1: Market Trends - The social services sector has seen a market performance decline of 32% over the past 12 months, compared to a 9% increase in the CSI 300 index[1] - The duty-free sales sentiment index for Hainan was recorded at 29.5, indicating a need for improvement as it is below the neutral level of 50[13] - Hainan's airport passenger flow reached 399,000, a 12.1% increase from the previous week, recovering to 109.7% of the 2019 level[13] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Focus on the recovery of duty-free sales driven by improved customer spending and the opening of city duty-free stores in Q4[20] - In the education sector, the public examination training market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase in the number of candidates due to a record high of 11.79 million graduates in 2024[33] - The medical beauty sector shows potential for rebound, with leading stocks like Ai Meike and Juzi Biotechnology experiencing weekly gains of 20.0% and 17.7% respectively[34] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The consumer sentiment in the medical beauty sector is improving, leading to increased spending and a potential surge in demand during Q4 promotions[34] - The retail sector is expected to benefit from favorable employment and real estate policies, with a focus on high-dividend stocks like Yuyuan and Dazhong[2]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant increase of 23% in September, with an average daily trading volume of 0.79 trillion yuan[4] - The real estate sector led the market with a notable performance, benefiting from supportive policies, while the non-bank financial sector also saw substantial gains[6] Economic Indicators - The average duration of previous major upward trends in the market was 18 days with an average gain of 22% during the initial phase, followed by 11 days with a 2% decline in the intermediate phase, and 11 days with an 11% gain in the peak phase[2] - The current market has potential recovery space of approximately 10% to the central level and up to 30% to the cyclical high[2] Investment Trends - Foreign capital inflows into Chinese equity assets reached a historical high, with a net inflow of 6.8 billion USD in the last two weeks[2] - Over the past two weeks, ETFs saw a net inflow exceeding 120 billion yuan, with significant contributions from the CSI 300 ETF (+50.4 billion yuan) and the ChiNext ETF (+12.1 billion yuan)[2] Sector Performance - The consumer and real estate sectors are expected to benefit from policy catalysts and economic recovery, with a focus on high-growth areas such as overseas business in non-ferrous metals and machinery[3] - The performance of the A-share market is expected to stabilize and gradually recover, particularly in the context of supportive domestic policies and easing overseas liquidity[3] Risks - Potential risks include the possibility of an economic recession in the United States, unexpected overseas financial risks, and the potential failure of historical patterns to predict future market behavior[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the securities and fund industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant turnaround in the capital market expectations due to policy enhancements, with a notable increase in trading volume and improved liquidity in the equity market [4][17]. - The brokerage sector has seen a substantial increase in stock prices, with a 39% rise in the brokerage sector from September 24 to September 30, indicating a potential upward trend in both valuation and performance [4][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of head brokerage firms benefiting from industry resource optimization and improved risk control indicators, recommending specific stocks such as Citic Securities and China Galaxy [4][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Data Tracking - **Market Performance**: Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 saw increases of 21.91% and 25.52% respectively during the week of September 23-30 [8]. - **Market Activity**: The average daily trading volume for A-shares reached 13,204 billion CNY, a 134.7% increase from the previous week, with a peak trading volume of 26,115 billion CNY on September 30 [11]. - **Public Fund Issuance**: A total of 251 billion units of public funds were issued during the week, with equity funds accounting for 204 billion units, indicating a strong interest in passive stock index funds [15]. 2. Recent Key Events - **Policy Announcements**: On September 24, the central bank announced significant policy measures including lowering reserve requirements and interest rates, aimed at stabilizing the stock market [17]. - **Securities Regulatory Reforms**: The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released guidelines to support mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the regulatory framework for listed companies [19]. - **Market Stability Initiatives**: The central political bureau emphasized the need to boost the capital market and facilitate long-term capital inflows, indicating a proactive approach to market stabilization [22][23]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the brokerage sector is poised for valuation expansion and fundamental improvement, with a focus on leading firms that can leverage resource integration and risk management enhancements [24]. - Specific stocks recommended include Citic Securities, China Galaxy, and Dongfang Caifu, which are expected to benefit from increased trading volumes and improved brokerage business performance [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry, particularly focusing on companies involved in foundational AI infrastructure and applications [23]. Core Insights - OpenAI's new API features significantly simplify AI development processes and reduce costs, making it accessible for small and medium enterprises to create voice assistants [2][6]. - The Canvas platform revolutionizes writing and programming paradigms by providing a separate output interface for modifications without needing to regenerate the entire content [11]. - Meta's Movie Gen models, with 300 billion parameters for video generation and 130 billion for audio, demonstrate advanced capabilities in generating high-quality multimedia content based on textual prompts [14][15]. Summary by Sections OpenAI's API Developments - OpenAI has introduced several new API functionalities, including real-time voice interaction, visual fine-tuning, prompt caching optimization, and model distillation services, enhancing the developer ecosystem [2][6]. - The real-time voice interaction API integrates multiple models, streamlining the development process for voice assistants [6]. - Visual fine-tuning allows for significant improvements in task success rates with minimal data input, exemplified by companies like Grab and Automat [8]. Meta's Movie Gen Models - The Movie Gen Video model can generate high-quality images and videos based on text prompts, with a training set of 1 billion images and 100 million videos [14][15]. - The Movie Gen Audio model generates synchronized high-quality audio, capable of producing environment sounds and non-narrative music that aligns with visual content [14][15]. - Meta's training approach for these models involved extensive GPU resources, indicating a significant investment in computational capabilities [15]. Upcoming Technological Events - HarmonyOS NEXT is set to launch on October 8, showcasing advancements in a self-developed operating system [18]. - Tesla plans to unveil its Robotaxi on October 11, marking a significant milestone in autonomous vehicle technology [19]. - AMD will host an event on October 10 to present its latest advancements in AI and server technology [20].

计算机 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.10.07 AI 电力，能耗与运营的双重革命 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -36% -27% -18% -9% 0% 9% 计算机 沪深300 分析师 杨烨 SAC 证书编号：S0160522050001 yangye01@ctsec.com 分析师 王妍丹 SAC 证书编号：S0160524040002 wangyd01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《政策刺激下，支付交易量有望回暖， 关注支付 IT》 2024-09-28 2. 《财政政策发力，近水楼台先得月， 关注财政 IT》 2024-09-27 3. 《政策强发力，看多计算机板块，关 注券商 IT》 2024-09-27 核心观点 证券研究报告 ❖ AI 耗电量激增，核电等清洁能源需求提升。根据澎湃新闻，目前训练 AI 大模型使用的主流算力芯片英伟达 H100 芯片，一张最大功耗为 700 瓦，即运 行一小时就要耗电 0.7 度。根据 iea 统计，2022 年全球数据中心耗电量约 460TWh，到 2026 年全球数据中心的总用电量可能达到 1000TWh 以上，这个 需求大致 ...

电力设备 / 行业投资策略报告 / 2024.10.06 电力设备与新能源 3Q2024 业绩前瞻 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -29% -21% -14% -6% 2% 9% 电力设备 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 张一弛 SAC 证书编号：S0160522110002 zhangyc02@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《逆变器 8 月出口数据稳增，关注特 高压柔直招标》 2024-09-25 2. 《 新能源车销量激增，风电市场活 跃》 2024-09-16 3. 《二季度光伏业绩见底出清加速，锂 电小幅改善》 2024-09-07 3Q2024 业绩前瞻 核心观点 证券研究报告 ❖ 锂电：电池端，龙头宁德时代壁垒高筑，亿纬锂能储能强势，订单接踵而来。 材料端，今年以来负极、六氟磷酸锂、电解液陆续出现结构性涨价，供给过剩 格局逐步改善中。行业筑底期，经历两年的全产业链价格深度下跌，我们预计 各环节即将先后进入底部反转阶段。 ❖ 光储: 阳光电源是逆变器和储能系统双龙头，组件和储能系统降价后，海外地 面电站光伏和大储需求快速增长，公司受益明显。光伏主产业链方面，目前硅 料、硅片环节 ...