【东财策略】每日复盘20260120 一、市场概况 1月20日A股震荡下行，三大指数集体收跌。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.01%收报4113点，深证成指跌0.97%，创业板指跌1.79%；两市成交额2.78万亿，较昨日小幅放 量。 全天上涨2233家，下跌3102家。 二、行业表现 【东财策略】每日复盘20260120 一、市场概况 1月20日A股震荡下行，三大指数集体收跌。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.01%收报4113点，深证成指跌0.97%，创业板指跌1.79%；两市成交额2.78万亿，较昨日小幅放 量。 全天上涨2233家，下跌3102家。 二、行业表现 分行业看，申万一级行业中，涨幅前五位是石油石化（+1.74%）、建筑材料（+ 截至目前，LPR已连续8个月保持不变。 3）盈方微于今日复牌并披露重大资产重组进展，拟收购上海肖克利及富士德中国100%股权以强化半导体分销业 务。 四、后市展望和思考 融资端约束叠加题材澄清、业绩扰动，行情更可能从"高弹性主线"转向"可验证线索"主导的轮动：一是涨价与供给 收敛的资源、化工链，二是地产链的低位修复与政策预期交易，三是年报预告驱动的业绩线索。 分行业看，申万一级行业中，涨 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: 长江电子 (Changjiang Electronics) - **Industry**: Communication Solutions, specifically focusing on backplane technology Core Points and Arguments 1. **Orthogonal Backplane Viability**: - The orthogonal backplane remains the most reliable communication solution within the Rubin-Ultra framework despite concerns about its performance based on recent testing results [1] - Current backplane design utilizes 78-layer M9 material, with suppliers testing 94-layer and 104-layer options to enhance impedance performance and connector reliability [1] 2. **Signal Performance Improvement**: - A less dense wiring approach is expected to yield faster signal speeds and reduced interference, thereby improving transmission speed and minimizing signal disruption [1] 3. **Delay Risks**: - The risk of delay in the orthogonal backplane development is considered low, with M9 material still dominating the market, while PTFE material remains a potential alternative [2] - Nvidia has not abandoned PTFE material, which has a low loss factor, and plans to continue testing it to improve yield, processability, and stability [2] 4. **Current Progress**: - The orthogonal backplane is currently in the second round of sample submissions, with 15 samples expected to be delivered by mid-February [3] - Nvidia plans to showcase the orthogonal backplane at the GTC conference in March, indicating strong certainty of its implementation [3] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The ongoing competition between M9 and PTFE materials could influence the timeline and final decision on the backplane technology, as the uncertainty surrounding PTFE's development may affect the overall project schedule [2]

Summary of the Earnings Call Transcript Company Overview - The company discussed is **Zhaoyan New Drug**, focusing on its financial performance and projections for 2025. Key Financial Projections - **2025 Revenue Forecast**: Expected to be between **1.573 billion to 1.738 billion CNY**, representing a year-over-year decline of **13.9% to 22.1%** [1] - **Net Profit Forecast**: Projected net profit attributable to shareholders is between **233 million to 349 million CNY**, showing a significant increase of **214.0% to 317.0%** year-over-year [1] - **Non-GAAP Net Profit**: Expected to be between **246 million to 370 million CNY**, indicating a substantial growth of **945.2% to 1467.7%** year-over-year [1] Q4 2025 Specifics - **Q4 Revenue Forecast**: Anticipated revenue for Q4 is between **588 million to 753 million CNY**, with a year-over-year decline of **14.0%** but a quarter-over-quarter increase of **10.2%** [2] - **Q4 Net Profit**: Projected net profit for Q4 is between **152 million to 268 million CNY**, with a year-over-year growth of **5.2% to 85.8%** [2] - **Non-GAAP Net Profit for Q4**: Expected to be between **217 million to 341 million CNY**, reflecting a year-over-year increase of **58.6% to 148.5%** [2] Profit Margin Insights - **Profit Margin Trends**: The profit margins for laboratory services and other businesses are narrowing, with reported losses in Q1 to Q4 of **-0.25 billion, -0.40 billion, -0.46 billion, and -0.57 billion CNY** respectively [2] - **Profit Margin Rates**: The profit margin rates for these services were reported at **-9%, -11%, -15%, and -8%** for the respective quarters [2] Biological Asset Valuation - **Significant Increase in Biological Assets**: In Q4, the fair value of biological assets is expected to show a positive change of **312 million to 359 million CNY**, which is significantly higher than the average of **47 million CNY** in the previous three quarters [2] - **Market Price and Natural Growth Factors**: The increase is attributed to both rising market prices and natural growth of the biological assets [2] - **Asset Valuation of Monkeys**: The valuation for 3-5 year old monkeys is projected to increase by **20,000 to 40,000 CNY**, with the end-of-year valuation for these assets expected to reach **100,000 to 120,000 CNY** [2]

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Company Overview - The company discussed is **芯碁微装 (Xingqi Microelectronics)**, a leader in high-end PCB exposure equipment, benefiting significantly from the expansion of AI PCB production [1][2]. Key Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 between **275-295 million yuan**, representing a year-on-year growth of **71%-84%** [1]. - The projected net profit excluding non-recurring items is estimated to be between **264-284 million yuan**, with a year-on-year increase of **78%-91%** [1]. - For Q4 2025, the expected net profit is between **76-96 million yuan**, with a median of **86 million yuan**, indicating a **52%** increase compared to Q3 2025 [1]. - The projected net profit excluding non-recurring items for Q4 2025 is between **71-91 million yuan**, with a median of **81 million yuan**, reflecting a **43%** increase from Q3 2025 [1]. Industry Insights 1. **High Demand for High-End PCB Equipment** - The company is experiencing strong order demand for its high-end LDI equipment, maintaining a high capacity utilization rate [1]. - The successful commissioning of the second-phase production base enhances the timely delivery capability of high-end equipment, contributing to the company's performance [2]. 2. **Advancements in the Semiconductor Sector** - The company is making continuous breakthroughs in the semiconductor field, securing repeat orders for advanced packaging and board-level packaging equipment [2]. - Orders for advanced packaging equipment have exceeded **100 million yuan** for 2025, with expectations for over **20 units** to be delivered in 2026 at an average price of **15-20 million yuan** per unit [2]. - Orders for substrate equipment are also expected to increase significantly, with several units anticipated to be shipped, providing new growth momentum alongside the gradual ramp-up of semiconductor business [2]. 3. **Growth in Laser Drilling Equipment** - There is a rapid increase in orders for laser drilling equipment, with the company's high-precision CO₂ laser drilling equipment already adopted by leading clients, achieving double-digit order volumes [2]. - The company has developed ultra-fast laser technology and UV+CO₂ composite laser technology to address processing challenges with M9 materials, positioning laser drilling as a key growth area [2].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The real estate and building materials sector experienced a significant increase, primarily driven by market rumors regarding policy relaxation in Shanghai and expectations of more substantial policy measures to follow [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - A reassessment of the real estate and related sectors is deemed necessary at this juncture [2] - Key points highlighted in the commentary from "Qiushi" include: 1. Recognition of real estate as a significant financial asset, central to household wealth [3] 2. The need for comprehensive policy measures rather than incremental adjustments, indicating potential for new expectations regarding policy strength and breadth [3] - Statistical data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in real estate investment by 17% year-on-year, new construction down by 20%, completions down by 18%, sales area down by 9%, and sales revenue down by 13% [3] - Despite the overall decline in data, the marginal negative impact on the building materials industry has noticeably weakened [3] - The fundamental investment logic in the building materials sector is centered on "supply-side improvement" preceding "demand-side recovery" [3] - Under the "anti-involution" policy direction, price coordination in industries like cement is beginning to show results, with profit levels continuing to recover [3] - The consumer building materials sector, including waterproofing and coatings, is entering the final phase of clearing out excess, with an improved competitive landscape and positive changes in gross margins and expense ratios for leading companies in specific segments [3] Recommendations - Recommended to focus on high-credit, high-quality real estate developers benefiting from policy rumors, such as China Merchants Shekou and Binjiang Group [4] - Suggested to pay attention to leading companies in the real estate supply chain that are expected to benefit from anticipated demand recovery, including Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Sankeshu, and Tubao [4]

旺季刺激+抢出口，草铵膦、草甘膦价格上涨 事件：#草甘膦、草铵膦价格上调。 1月9日财政部和国家税务总局宣布自2026年4月1日起，部分农药及原药中间体等产品增值税出口退税率取消/下 调。 1月16日草铵膦提价至46000元/吨，较前日上调2100元/吨；1月19日草甘膦提价至23296元/吨，较前日上调200元/ 吨。 1、#2010年草甘膦退税取消加速行 旺季刺激+抢出口，草铵膦、草甘膦价格上涨 事件：#草甘膦、草铵膦价格上调。 1月9日财政部和国家税务总局宣布自2026年4月1日起，部分农药及原药中间体等产品增值税出口退税率取消/下 调。 1月16日草铵膦提价至46000元/吨，较前日上调2100元/吨；1月19日草甘膦提价至23296元/吨，较前日上调200元/ 吨。 1、#2010年草甘膦退税取消加速行业出清。 回溯此前，2010年7月草甘膦出口退税率取消，叠加2010年草甘膦价格低至19600元/吨震荡，处于行业成本线之下 运行，与此同时国内加紧环保核查，草甘膦供给端出清加速，最终草甘膦周期启动，价格涨至45000元/吨。 2、#草铵膦格局有望大幅优化。 草铵膦格局和2010年的草甘膦类似，根据百 ...

通宇通讯，-43%， 三维通信，-40%， 顺灏股份，-43%， 航天环宇，-38%， 航天发展，-39%， 神剑股份，-39%， 中国卫通，-36%， 中国卫星，-23%， 中天火箭，-30%， 航天晨光，-29%， 航天科技，-28%， 航天智装，-28%， 周二，商业航天概念再遭暴击，高点下来跌了多少？ 周二，商业航天概念再遭暴击，高点下来跌了多少？ ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company Overview - The focus is on **China National Materials Group Corporation (中材国际)**, which is expected to experience a significant improvement in its fundamentals by 2026, supported by a strong dividend yield [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Order Growth**: - The company reported a **12% year-on-year increase** in new contracts for 2025, with equipment orders rising by **30%** and overseas equipment orders increasing by **51%**. This is expected to significantly accelerate revenue growth due to the shorter project cycle of equipment projects, which is **7 months** compared to engineering projects [1]. 2. **International Market Performance**: - The overseas market remains robust, with a projected **24% growth** in overseas orders for 2025. This includes increases of **26%** in overseas engineering, **51%** in equipment, and stable performance in operations and maintenance. The proportion of overseas contracts has risen to **63%**, an increase of **6 percentage points** from 2024, indicating a continuous optimization of the order structure [1][2]. 3. **Domestic Market Recovery**: - Concerns regarding the domestic business have eased, with the order decline expected to narrow to **-4%** in 2025, compared to an **18% decline** in the first three quarters. A stabilization or slight recovery is anticipated in 2026, driven by contributions from phosphate chemical projects, which are expected to offset declines in new cement construction [2]. 4. **Performance Outlook**: - The year 2026 marks the first year of the company's **14th Five-Year Plan**, with expectations for a strong start in performance [2]. 5. **Incentives and Valuation**: - The potential introduction of an equity incentive plan could further enhance performance growth expectations. The company forecasts a stable performance for 2025, with an anticipated growth of **8%-10%** in 2026. The projected dividend yield for 2026 is **6%**, and if the yield shifts to **4%**, the reasonable market value could reach **40.5 billion**, indicating over **40% upside potential**. The current valuation is considered to be at a bottom range with sufficient safety margins [3]. Additional Important Content - **Risk Factors**: - The company faces several risks, including credit impairment risks, potential underperformance in overseas order conversion, and foreign exchange loss risks [3].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - The company discussed is Tonghuashun, which is involved in the financial technology sector, particularly focusing on AI and data services. Core Insights and Arguments - **2025 Earnings Forecast**: Tonghuashun has projected a net profit attributable to shareholders between 2.73 billion to 3.28 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 80% [1] - **Quarterly Breakdown**: If the upper limit is achieved, the company expects to realize net profits of 120 million, 380 million, 700 million, and 2.08 billion yuan for Q1 to Q4 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +15%, +47%, +144%, and +77% [1] - **Contract Liabilities**: The high level of contract liabilities as of Q3 2025, amounting to 2.52 billion yuan, is seen as a significant indicator of growth for 2025-2026 [2] Additional Important Information - **AI Data Advantage**: The company emphasizes its competitive edge in AI, attributed to substantial investment in information fees, comprehensive data interfaces, and authentic data sources for large model evaluations. This has led to the publication of six papers in top-tier conferences in 2025 [3] - **Market Position**: Tonghuashun has achieved a monthly active user base of 36.7 million, with a market share of 21%, which is twice that of its competitor, Dongfang Caifu [3] - **Future Growth Potential**: The company aims to leverage its AI capabilities to potentially convert 10% of its projected 40 million monthly active users into paying customers, which could lead to a profit of 10 billion yuan if each pays an average of 100 yuan per month [3] - **Valuation Metrics**: Currently, the company is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40x, with historical bull market averages around 70x, indicating a potential upside of 75% [3] - **Expansion Plans**: The company has announced plans to expand its AI robotics team, showcasing its commitment to integrating AI into more real-world business scenarios [3]

【西部化工&新材料】"海外产能加速退出+国内反内卷"，龙头企业产能大幅增长涨价弹性大，重视化工行业板块 机会！ #化工龙头产能已大幅增长，涨价弹性大。 近年来化工行业海外产能加速退出，国内扩产接近尾声，叠加反内卷政策，化工行业价格价差有望修复。 我们认为市场忽视了化工企业扩产带来的涨价潜力，当前化工龙头尽管盈利仍然低于21年，但产能已较21年大幅 增长，且全球份额大幅领先，产品价格略做抬升后 【西部化工&新材料】"海外产能加速退出+国内反内卷"，龙头企业产能大幅增长涨价弹性大，重视化工行业板块 机会！ #化工龙头产能已大幅增长，涨价弹性大。 近年来化工行业海外产能加速退出，国内扩产接近尾声，叠加反内卷政策，化工行业价格价差有望修复。 我们认为市场忽视了化工企业扩产带来的涨价潜力，当前化工龙头尽管盈利仍然低于21年，但产能已较21年大幅 增长，且全球份额大幅领先，产品价格略做抬升后的业绩弹性将大于21年。 ＃我们对18家龙头进行分情景业绩弹性测算，欢迎联系我们交流！ #受益标的： 原油（中国海油、中曼石油、洲际油气）；炼化（中国石油、中国石化、恒力石化、荣盛石化）； 长丝PTA（新凤鸣、桐昆股份）。 #农药：海 ...