金融工程 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 中银量化多策略行业轮动 周报 – 20250821 当 前（ 2025 年 8 月 21 日 ）中 银多 策略行 业配置 系统 仓位 ： 电 子 （11.2%）、非银行金融（9.0%）、综合（8.7%）、有色金属（7.5%）、 电力及公用事业（7.0%）、银行（6.8%）、综合金融（4.5%）、传媒 （4.3%）、汽车（4.3%）、基础化工（4.3%）、通信（3.4%）、机械 （3.4%）、电力设备及新能源（3.2%）、家电（3.0%）、农林牧渔 （2.8%）、纺织服装（2.7%）、石油石化（2.7%）、煤炭（2.7%）、食 品 饮 料 （ 2.7% ） 、 钢 铁 （ 2.7% ） 、 计 算 机 （ 1.6% ） 、 国 防 军 工 （1.5%）。 S1 行业盈利景气度追踪策略（周度）较基准超额收益为 3.3% S2 未证伪情绪跟踪策略（周度）超额收益为 4.4% S6 财报因子失效反转策略（月度）超额收益为-1.9% 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（七）：如何把 握市场"未证伪情绪"构建行业动量策略》 20220917 《中银证券量化行业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views of the Report - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium emphasizes the priority of the employment target, suggesting that as long as the August US CPI does not show an expanding trend, the conditions for a September rate cut could be met. The report maintains the view that the Fed will cut rates twice this year, with more cuts likely if the unemployment rate rises further [3]. - The long - term Treasury yield is closely related to the growth rate of household loans, and the slowdown in personal housing loan growth is the main factor dragging down the slowdown of household loan growth. The rebound of long - term bond interest rates at this stage may be mainly due to expectations and the transfer of funds caused by the strong performance of the stock market recently. Unless there is an unexpected real - estate support policy, the subsequent recovery process of long - term bond yields should be relatively slow [3]. - The year - on - year decline of the producer price index for means of production continues to narrow. From August 18th to 23rd, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.41% week - on - week and 27.31% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 3.56% week - on - week and decreased by 24.63% year - on - year [3]. - From August 1st to 20th, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities tracked by Wind was about 185,000 square meters per day, while in August 2024, the average daily trading area in 30 cities was about 232,000 square meters per day [3]. Summary According to the Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The long - term Treasury yield is closely related to the growth rate of household loans, and the slowdown in personal housing loan growth is the main factor dragging down the slowdown of household loan growth. Recently, the real estate market has stabilized, and the decline in the area of commercial residential buildings has converged, and the downward trend of new mortgage rates has also slowed down. The willingness of commercial banks to further reduce mortgage rates is not strong, and it is more difficult to lower the yield requirements for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds [3][12]. - The ratio of household loans to GDP in China has recently stabilized, indicating that the household sector's leverage ratio has stabilized. If the capacity management of key industries on the supply side and demand - side support policies can promote the recovery of nominal GDP growth, the growth rate of household loans may have room to rebound, which will pose a risk of rising long - term bond interest rates [3][14]. - The rebound of the real estate market and the growth rate of household loans is not significant. The rebound of long - term bond interest rates at this stage may be mainly due to expectations and the transfer of funds caused by the strong performance of the stock market recently. The comparison effect also restricts the rebound of long - term and ultra - long - term bond interest rates. Unless there is an unexpected real - estate support policy, the subsequent recovery process of long - term bond yields should be relatively slow [3][18]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - Multiple high - frequency data are compared with important macroeconomic indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, social retail sales, export volume, etc., including LME copper spot price, crude steel daily output, production material price index, etc. [23][33][41] Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - The report presents high - frequency indicators in the US and Europe, such as the US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes or cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [91][93][96] Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The seasonal trends of various high - frequency data are shown, including the daily output of crude steel, production material price index, China's commodity price index, steel price index, etc. [104][112][121] High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are presented [165][168]

Group 1 - The report highlights the emergence of leading growth stocks, with companies like Cambrian and Industrial Fulian driving market performance, contrasting with the previous dominance of small-cap growth stocks [4][13][14] - The expectation of a rate cut cycle is reinforced by recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which have increased market optimism and risk appetite, suggesting a favorable environment for technology assets [4][14] - The report emphasizes the return of mid-cycle industries, particularly technology and advanced manufacturing, as the economy transitions out of a low-price phase, with significant implications for investment strategies [4][29] Group 2 - The launch of DeepSeek V3.1, optimized for domestic chip structures, is seen as a catalyst for the domestic computing power industry, with companies like Cambrian and Haiguang Information showing strong performance in their recent earnings reports [34][35] - The report notes a significant increase in sales of AI products, such as AI glasses and smartphones, indicating a growing market for AI applications and the potential for substantial investment opportunities in this sector [38][39][41] - The performance of the domestic computing power industry is validated by strong earnings growth from key players, with Haiguang Information reporting a 45.21% year-on-year increase in revenue, reflecting robust demand for high-end chips [35][37]

Key Points - The report highlights a selection of stocks for August, including companies such as SF Holding, Satellite Chemical, and Industrial Fulian, indicating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [1] - The macroeconomic analysis indicates that the US tariff policies are increasing global trade uncertainties, while the RMB exchange rate has shown a strong average performance despite some fluctuations [2][4] - The merger and acquisition activity in the A-share market has slightly decreased but remains characterized by high frequency, diverse participants, and broad sectors, with a total of 80 disclosed transactions amounting to 601.89 billion RMB [5] - China Southern Airlines is noted for its leading fleet size and passenger volume, benefiting from a recovering tourism market and lower aviation fuel prices, which enhances profitability [6][7] - The aviation industry has seen significant growth in passenger transport over the past 15 years, with a 172.8% increase, and the domestic passenger transport volume is expected to reach 730 million in 2024, a 17.86% year-on-year increase [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4][6] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant revenue and net profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by AI-related demand and high-end product optimization [4][9] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for high-end PCB/CCL technology, with projected revenues of RMB 49.13 billion, RMB 64.61 billion, and RMB 83.99 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][8] - The report highlights the company's strong market position and ongoing expansion in high-end product capacity, particularly in communications, AI, and data center applications [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 2.305 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43.06%, and a net profit of RMB 87 million, up 57.69% year-on-year [9] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 11.53%, an increase of 1.40 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 2025 showing a gross margin of 12.63% [9] Revenue Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 4.913 billion in 2025, RMB 6.461 billion in 2026, and RMB 8.399 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 46.2%, 31.5%, and 30.0% respectively [8][9] Profitability Metrics - The report forecasts net profits of RMB 277 million in 2025, RMB 575 million in 2026, and RMB 851 million in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 451.0%, 107.3%, and 48.0% [8][9] Market Dynamics - The demand for high-end copper-clad laminates (CCL) is expected to rise due to AI server needs and the recovery in consumer electronics, which will drive price increases [9] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, including new lines in Jiangxi and plans for high-end product production bases in East China and overseas [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next 6-12 months [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 21.675 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.39%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.815 billion, up 7.01% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was RMB 1.762 billion, reflecting an 8.40% increase [3][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 3.50 per 10 shares (tax included) and will not issue bonus shares [3]. - The company is experiencing steady growth in its business, with innovative products gradually entering the harvest phase, which supports a positive long-term development outlook [3][5]. Financial Projections - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is RMB 4.162 billion, RMB 4.782 billion, and RMB 5.404 billion, respectively. The corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 2.37, RMB 2.73, and RMB 3.08 [5][7]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are 19.3, 16.8, and 14.8 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [5][7]. Business Performance - The industrial segment of the company continues to show good growth, with a revenue of RMB 10.939 billion in the second quarter of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.65% [8]. - The innovative products have generated sales and agency service revenue of RMB 1.084 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 59% [8]. - The company has established a strong commercial network, ensuring the continued growth of its innovative products [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of HKD 21.42 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's core OTA (Online Travel Agency) business shows steady growth, with a revenue of RMB 4.669 billion in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.0%. The adjusted net profit reached RMB 775 million, up 18.0% year-on-year. The report emphasizes the company's significant long-term competitive advantages [3][5][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 4.669 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of RMB 1.185 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.7%. The adjusted net profit was RMB 775 million, up 18.0% year-on-year. The core OTA business generated revenue of RMB 4.01 billion, a 13.7% increase year-on-year [3][8]. - The company's gross margin stood at 65.0%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. Cost optimization led to improved profit margins, with the OTA operating profit margin at 26.7%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Business Segments - Revenue from the accommodation, transportation ticketing, vacation, and other segments in Q2 2025 was RMB 1.37 billion, RMB 1.88 billion, RMB 660 million, and RMB 760 million, respectively. The transportation segment saw a nearly 30% year-on-year increase in international ticket volume [8]. Market Outlook - The domestic travel market remains robust, with cross-border travel continuing to grow. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the industry's growth in lower-tier markets and is actively expanding its business [5][8]. - The report projects the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be RMB 2.707 billion, RMB 3.369 billion, and RMB 4.082 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.0, 13.7, and 11.3 times [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Views - China Southern Airlines has the largest fleet size in the country and leads in passenger capacity among domestic airlines. The growth rate of China's civil aviation fleet is showing a "step-down" trend, while the ongoing recovery in the tourism market is expected to boost air travel demand. The average price of aviation kerosene has decreased compared to the same period last year, which is beneficial for enhancing the company's profitability [1][5][8]. Company Overview - China Southern Airlines is the leading air transport service provider in China, with a well-established fleet and a focus on building dual hubs in Guangzhou and Beijing. The company has maintained the highest passenger transport volume among domestic airlines for 44 consecutive years. The airline operates a diverse fleet, including Boeing and Airbus models, and has a significant market share in terms of flight frequency and route network [16][24][25]. Financial Data - The company's total revenue for 2024 reached approximately 174.22 billion RMB, marking a 8.94% year-on-year increase, and is the highest in nearly a decade. The company has experienced continuous losses for four years since the pandemic, but the financial performance is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in revenue in 2023 [39][41][43]. Industry Overview - The aviation industry in China has seen a 172.8% growth in passenger transport over the past 15 years, with a gradual marketization of air ticket pricing. The three major airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) account for over 62.64% of the total transport turnover in the market. The domestic passenger transport volume is expected to reach 730 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.86% [47][48][49].

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The opening of the first low-altitude cargo route between Wuhan and Ezhou, along with high passenger traffic at Shanghai ports during the summer season, indicates growth in logistics and transportation [2][3] - Oil shipping rates remain low and fluctuating, while shipping rates for routes to Europe and the US continue to decline [3][16] - Joby Aviation successfully completed the world's first manned eVTOL flight between airports, showcasing advancements in aviation technology [3][17] - National railway coal shipments reached 1.02 billion tons in the first half of 2025, reflecting strong demand in the transportation sector [3][27] Industry Dynamics Shipping and Logistics - Oil shipping rates are experiencing low-level fluctuations, with the China Import Crude Oil Composite Index at 1064.60 points, up 0.7% from the previous week [15] - The shipping market is showing signs of weakness, with rates for routes to Europe and the US declining by 7.2% and 3.5% respectively [16] - The first low-altitude cargo flight between Ezhou and Wuhan was completed, marking a significant development in regional logistics [25][26] Passenger Transport - Shanghai's passenger traffic has remained high, averaging 129,000 daily entries and exits, a year-on-year increase of over 14% [18] - The peak day recorded 157,000 passengers, indicating a strong recovery in air travel [18] Freight and Rail Transport - In the first half of 2025, national railways transported 1.98 billion tons of goods, with coal shipments accounting for 1.02 billion tons [27] - The average daily loading of coal cars was 182,400, reflecting a 3.0% year-on-year increase [27] High-frequency Data Tracking - Air cargo prices have shown a slight decline, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 4455.00 points, down 4.1% year-on-year [28] - The domestic air cargo flight volume increased by 7.61% year-on-year in July 2025, while international flights rose by 23.31% [37] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Consider opportunities in low-altitude economy investments, particularly in companies like CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Explore investment opportunities in the road and rail sectors, with recommendations for Gansu Expressway, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and others [5] - Pay attention to the express delivery sector, recommending companies like SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [5]

Core Insights - The overall activity level of the A-share merger and acquisition market in China has slightly decreased, characterized by high frequency, diverse participants, and broad sectors [1] - A total of 80 merger and acquisition events were disclosed during the period, with a total transaction amount of 601.88 billion RMB, showing a significant increase in both the number and value of major M&A events compared to the previous period [2] - The real estate management and development, other metals and mining, semiconductor products, electronic equipment, instruments and components, electrical equipment, and automotive parts sectors are particularly active in M&A activities [2][3] - Private enterprises and local state-owned enterprises are actively engaging in horizontal integration and strategic cooperation, indicating diverse motivations for mergers and acquisitions [1][2] - The M&A market is expected to further release integration and value reconstruction potential, supported by regulatory policy optimization, economic recovery, policy encouragement, and capital market reforms [1] M&A Market Overview - The number of major M&A events in the A-share market increased by 60% compared to the previous period, with a total disclosed transaction amount of 601.88 billion RMB, representing a 187.97% increase [2] - Key sectors for M&A activities include real estate management and development, other metals and mining, semiconductor products, electronic equipment, instruments and components, electrical equipment, and automotive parts [2] - The market is entering a new phase characterized by "efficiency improvement + structural optimization," driven by policy and proactive corporate adjustments [2] Listed Companies' M&A Plans - A total of 44 listed companies announced or planned M&A activities, with an average stock price fluctuation of 7.53% over two weeks [2] - 22 companies made significant progress after announcing M&A plans, with an average stock price fluctuation of 3.76% [2] - The number of major restructuring events increased by 60% compared to the previous period, with research enthusiasm rising by 11.54% [2] Companies with Significant Progress - Companies such as Yunnan Cheng Investment and AnYuan Coal Industry have made notable advancements in their M&A plans, with various strategic objectives including asset adjustments and diversification [10][11] - The progress of these companies reflects a broader trend of active restructuring and strategic realignment within the A-share market [10][11] Market Sentiment and Performance - The restructuring index showed a fluctuation of 5.10% over the two-week period, indicating a positive sentiment in the M&A market [12] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and market values of companies involved in M&A activities vary significantly, reflecting diverse market conditions and investor sentiments [7][8]