宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 2 月 23 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 需求是拉升国际金价的重要因素 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 ◼ 本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.00%，沪深 300 股指期货上涨 1.09%；焦煤期货 本周上涨 3.86%，铁矿石主力合约本周上涨 3.07%；余额宝 7 天年化收益 率下跌 4BP 至 1.25%；十年国债收益率上行 7BP 至 1.72%，活跃十年国债 期货本周下跌 0.53%。 资产配置建议 ◼ 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。需求是拉升国际金价的重要 因素。截至 2025 年 2 月 20 日，伦敦金现价实现 2939.0 美元/盎司，较年 初（2025 年 1 月 2 日）增长 12.0%，较 2022 年涨幅实现 60.7%，近年国 际金价涨幅较为明显。黄金本身具备避险属性，或在一定程度上受到地缘 关系影响。截至 2025 年 2 月 18 日，地缘政治威胁指数五日均值为 159.1， 明显高于 1 月 1 日水平。2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2 月 18 日，地缘政治威胁指 数 ...

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 2 月 17 日 交通运输行业周报 1 月全球新船订单同比下降，首都机场 24 年业 绩预告减亏 航运方面，1 月全球新船订单同比下降，韩国船厂凭借箱船订单跃至全球新 船订单量首位；航空方面，苏州通用机场将于 2026 年建成，首都机场 24 年 业绩预告减亏；快递物流方面，2025 年 1 月份电商物流指数为 109.2 点， 发 改委等八部门将在多个城市开展物流数据开放互联试点。 ◼ 核心观点： ①1 月全球新船订单同比下降，韩国船厂凭借箱船订单跃至全球新船订 单量首位。2025 年 1月，全球成交新船订单 68艘 305 万载重吨，同比分 别下降 48.5%和 62.6%，环比分别下降 44.3%和 42.8%。全球船舶完工交 付 171 艘 990 万载重吨，同比分别下降 8.1%和 6.7%。1 月末，全球船舶 手持订单 5750 艘 3.68 亿载重吨，同比分别上涨 19.0%和 30.1%。在 1 月 的新船订单中，集装箱船依旧是占比最高的船型，按载重吨计，占比升 至 78%，其余船型占比均在 10%以下。1 月，韩国凭借大量的集装箱船 订 ...

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 2 月 17 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20250216 国际油价小幅上涨，氯化钾、 DMF 价格上涨 2 月份建议关注：1、下游行业快速发展，建议关注部分电子材料、新能源材料公司；2、高质量 发展与高股东回报并重，建议关注大型能源央企及相关油服公司在新时代背景下的改革改善与 经营业绩提升；3、景气度较高的制冷剂、维生素行业龙头公司；4、宏观经济整体预期改善， 建议关注估值较低的行业龙头价值公司、轻烃裂解子行业龙头公司等。 投资建议 风险提示 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 相关研究报告 《化工行业周报 20250209》20250209 《化工行业周报 20250126》20250126 《化工行业周报 20250119》20250120 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 联系人：赵泰 tai.zhao@bocichina.com 一般证券业 ...

房地产行业|证券研究报告—行业月报 2025 年 2 月 17 日 强于大市 房地产行业2025年1月月报 1 月楼市成交环比季节性回落，但较去年春节月有大幅增长； 土拍溢价率创近三年新高 核心观点 【新房成交】 【二手房成交】 【新房库存与去化】 【土地市场】 1 月土地市场成交规模季节性回落，但溢价率创近三年新高。1 月全国（300 城）成交土地建面环比-74.3%，同比-18.4%；楼面均 价环比-27.8%，同比+13.8%；平均土地溢价率为 8.1%，环比+4.3pct，同比+4.8pct。北京、深圳、杭州等地的优质地块在年初成 交，再加之 1 月三四线城市土地成交比例下降，明显提升了 2025 年 1 月的平均溢价率，为 2022 年以来的新高。一、二、三线城 市成交土地规划建筑面积环比增速分别为-87.8%、-77.1%、-73.3%，同比增速分别为-76.1%、-28.4%、-4.3%；楼面均价分别 25824、1735、1002 元/平，环比增速分别为 247.5%、-21.8%、-41.2%，同比增速分别为 436.0%、-5.1%、29.7%；平均溢价率分别 为 14.8%、16.0%、 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 2 月 17 日 | 2 月金股组合 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | --- | --- | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | | 中国石油 | | 601857.SH | | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 300750.SZ | 宁德时代 | | 688085.SH | 三友医疗 | | 000524.SZ | 岭南控股 | | 002241.SZ | 歌尔股份 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250217 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 产品组 证券分析师：王军 (8621)20328310 jun.wang_sh@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300511070001 市场指数 指数名称 收盘价 涨跌% 上证综指 3346.72 0.43 深证成指 10749.46 1.16 沪深 300 3939.01 0.87 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】关注 2025 年金融改革*张晓娇 朱启兵。2024 年顺利完成 5% 的经济增长目标。稳健的货币政策灵活适度、精准有效，加大逆周期调节力 度，支持实体经济回升向 ...

Economic Overview - In 2024, state-owned enterprises in China are projected to achieve total operating revenue of CNY 84,722.58 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.3%[3] - The total profit is expected to reach CNY 4,350.46 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4%[3] - By the end of December, the asset-liability ratio stands at 64.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year[3] Commodity Market Insights - Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.09% to USD 77.49 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures fell by 0.03% to USD 74.60 per barrel[5] - The EIA reported a reduction of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil inventory, bringing the total to 412 million barrels[5] - U.S. crude oil production decreased by 4,000 barrels per day to 1,347.7 million barrels per day, while exports increased by 43,700 barrels per day to 4.515 million barrels per day[5] Steel and Iron Ore Production - China's crude steel production for 2024 is estimated at 1,005.09 million tons, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year[9] - The iron output is projected at 851.74 million tons, down 2.3% year-on-year[9] - Steel exports are expected to reach 110.716 million tons, marking a 22.7% increase year-on-year, the highest in nine years[9] Market Trends - The market is experiencing a seasonal slowdown in demand as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to increased inventory levels in steel[9] - The PX market is facing downward pressure due to increased downstream PTA maintenance and a lack of strong demand[7] - The fuel oil market shows mixed trends, with high-sulfur fuel oil futures rising by 0.14% to CNY 3,613 per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil futures fell by 0.59% to CNY 4,015 per ton[6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the increase in international oil prices, with WTI crude oil futures reaching $71.29 per barrel, a weekly increase of 6.09% [1] - It suggests focusing on leading companies in high-demand sectors such as refrigerants and vitamins, as well as undervalued industry leaders and companies in the light hydrocracking sub-sector [1][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and shareholder returns, recommending attention to large energy state-owned enterprises and related oil service companies [1][17] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - During the week of December 9-15, 31 out of 101 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 37 experienced declines, and 33 remained stable [1][42] - The average price of WTI crude oil rose by 6.09% to $71.29 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 4.74% to $74.49 per barrel [1][43] - The report notes that the macroeconomic outlook is improving, which may positively impact demand [1][43] Price Changes - The report indicates that the average price of DMF decreased by 2.91% to 4,175 yuan per ton, while the price of butadiene increased by 6.87% to 10,500 yuan per ton [1][42] - The average price of NYMEX natural gas rose by 5.22% to $3.27 per mmbtu [1][43] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in sectors with high growth potential, such as fluorochemicals, animal nutrition, and polyester filament [1][17] - It suggests that the oil and gas extraction sector will continue to perform well under high oil prices, and highlights the potential recovery in the semiconductor industry [1][17] Company Highlights - The report identifies specific companies to watch, including China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Wanhu Chemical [1][17]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the decline in international oil prices and the mixed performance of chemical products, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies in high-demand sectors such as refrigerants and vitamins [1][2] - It suggests that macroeconomic expectations are improving, indicating potential investment opportunities in undervalued leading companies and those in the light hydrocracking sub-industry [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and shareholder returns, recommending attention to large state-owned energy enterprises and related oil service companies [1][2] - It notes the rapid development of downstream industries, suggesting a focus on certain electronic materials and new energy materials companies [1][2] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - During the week of December 1-8, 2024, among 101 tracked chemical products, 34 saw price increases, 38 saw declines, and 29 remained stable [1][2] - The average price of pure MDI decreased to 18,700 CNY/ton, down 1.84% from the previous week, while TDI prices increased to 12,900 CNY/ton, up 2.38% [1][2] - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude at 67.20 USD/barrel and Brent at 71.12 USD/barrel, reflecting a weekly decline of 1.18% and 2.50% respectively [1][2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in sectors with high demand, such as refrigerants and vitamins, and those with low valuations in the chemical industry [1][2] - It identifies mid to high oil prices as a backdrop for continued high demand in the oil and gas extraction sector, with a focus on energy state-owned enterprises enhancing quality and efficiency [1][2] - The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, with attention to advanced packaging and domestic substitution of semiconductor materials [1][2] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and several technology and chemical companies such as Anji Technology and Wanhua Chemical [1][2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock price will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next 6-12 months [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 43.54% for the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue reaching RMB 3.185 billion, although it experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.78% [2][3]. - The wind power industry showed improved demand, contributing to a quarter-on-quarter revenue increase of 28.11% in Q3 2024, with revenue of RMB 1.397 billion [2][3]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 2.27 percentage points to 17.22%, while the net profit margin increased by 5.81 percentage points to 15.76%, primarily due to investment income from the transfer of wind power assets [3][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of RMB 506.52 million, a 43.54% increase year-on-year, despite a significant quarter-on-quarter decrease of 74.61% [2][6]. - The comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 17.22%, reflecting ongoing pressure on the core casting business [3][6]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 1.397 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.23% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.11% [2][3]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 85 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 37.98% [2][6]. Business Development - The company is actively developing new business lines, including nuclear waste storage tanks and special alloy steel products, which have received customer recognition and are set for mass production [3][6]. - The successful transfer of 80% equity in a wind power project contributed approximately RMB 273 million to the company's investment income [3][6]. Valuation - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 to RMB 0.63, 0.75, and 0.89, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20.8, 17.6, and 14.9 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock price will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next 6-12 months [2][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 132.52 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, despite a 1.1% decline in revenue [2][3]. - The third quarter saw a net profit of 43.91 billion RMB, which is a 2.3% increase compared to the previous quarter, showcasing the company's ability to enhance profitability amid challenging market conditions [2][3]. - The report highlights the optimization of the company's asset-liability structure, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 39.5%, the lowest in nearly 14 years [3]. - The upstream natural gas production increased by 4.0% year-on-year, indicating growth potential in oil and gas exploration and development [3]. - The chemical business showed a significant profit increase, with operating profit rising to 3.499 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 33.68 billion RMB [3]. - The natural gas sales volume increased by 8.6% year-on-year, reflecting strong demand driven by China's economic development and energy transition [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 702.41 billion RMB, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year, while total costs were 650.06 billion RMB, down 11.75% [9]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 22,562.79 billion RMB, with total costs at 20,889.44 billion RMB, showing a slight decline in revenue but effective cost management [8]. Profitability Metrics - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was 132.52 billion RMB, with a projected net profit of 171.35 billion RMB for 2024, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 9.5 times [4][6]. - The report forecasts net profits of 182.56 billion RMB and 192.09 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a steady growth trajectory [4]. Operational Highlights - The company processed 1,036.2 million barrels of crude oil in the first three quarters of 2024, with a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, while chemical product output increased by 9.7% [3]. - The report emphasizes the company's focus on upgrading its refining and chemical operations, which is expected to enhance profitability in the future [3].