房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 7 月 22 日 强于大市 房地产行业第 29 周周报（2025 年 7 月 12 日-2025 年 7 月 18 日） 本周新房二手房成交同比降幅均收窄；中央城市工作会议 将"城市更新"写入总体要求 新房成交面积环比由负转正，同比降幅收窄。二手房成交面积环比由负转正， 同比降幅收窄。新房库存面积同环比均下降。去化周期环比上涨，同比下降。 核心观点 政策 本周中央城市工作会议召开，是时隔 10 年再度召开该会议，从中央层面全方位部署城市工 作，意义重大。会议指出"城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效为主的阶 段"，同时提出"高质量开展城市更新"、"加快构建房地产发展新模式，稳步推进城中 村和危旧房改造"。中央将"城市更新"写入总体要求，意味着我国城市发展逐渐进入城 市更新的重要时期。我们预计未来城市更新相关政策的支持力度进一步加大。 投资建议： 二季度销售、投资、房价数据均明显走弱。我们预计，7 月的政治局会议表态或将更加 积极，带动板块在 7 月中旬开始出现的一波政策博弈的行情机会。考虑到 7 月 15 日中 央城市工作会议的相关表态，城市 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 7 月 22 日 | 7 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 002244.SZ | 滨江集团 | | 002352.SZ | 顺丰控股 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 002648.SZ | 卫星化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 688680.SH | 海优新材 | | 603011.SH | 合锻智能 | | 600054.SH | 黄山旅游 | | 300476.SZ | 胜宏科技 | | 688519.SH | 南亚新材 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250722 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】提振消费的几点思考*朱启兵。短期内提振消费的关键在于增 强政府财政能力以及增加居民收入，中期提振消费需要收入分配制度的变革 和城镇化的持续推进。 【电子】鹏鼎控股*苏凌瑶。公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预告，根据业绩预 告及月度营收披露，2025 年上半年公司有效降本同时稳步推进产品结构优 化，上半年营收利润取得增长。 市场指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, expecting it to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [2][48]. Core Insights - The social services sector saw a 3.18% increase in the last two trading weeks, ranking 9th among 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.26 percentage points [2][13]. - The competitive "involution" in the food delivery market has negatively impacted retail sales in June, but the summer travel market is expected to remain robust, indicating potential for growth in related industries [2][5]. - The report highlights the significant impact of visa-free policies on inbound tourism, with a notable increase in inbound travel expected during the summer season [5][41]. Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's performance was strong, with sub-sectors like professional services (+7.53%) and tourism retail (+2.85%) leading the gains, while hotel and catering services saw a slight decline of -0.17% [17][20]. - The report notes that from July 1 to August 31, the national railway is expected to send 953 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [5][30]. - The inbound tourism market has shown a strong recovery, with 33.3 million inbound travelers in the first half of 2025, a 15.8% increase year-on-year [5][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the travel and related industries, including Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others [5][41]. - It also recommends monitoring hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel [5][41]. - Companies involved in the recovery of the duty-free market, such as China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [5][41].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [31]. Core Insights - The report highlights a resonance in AI development both domestically and internationally, driven by the launch of OpenAI's general-purpose AI Agent and advancements in large models [11][12]. - The introduction of the world's first RMB tokenized fund by Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong) is noted, which enhances the offshore RMB hub status of Hong Kong and improves transparency and settlement efficiency through blockchain technology [14]. - NVIDIA's H20 chip has received export approval to China, which may alleviate the short-term shortage of inference computing power, while the launch of the RTX Pro GPU is expected to accelerate industrial robot and autonomous driving transformations [15][16]. Summary by Sections AI Development - OpenAI released the ChatGPT Agent, integrating various tools for enhanced human-computer interaction, achieving significant performance in benchmark tasks [11][12]. - The Kimi K2 model, launched by Moonshot AI, is the largest open-source model to date, demonstrating superior capabilities in coding and task execution [12][13]. Financial IT Sector - Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong) launched the first RMB tokenized fund, which allows investors to subscribe or redeem through traditional and digital channels, filling a gap in RMB on-chain income-generating assets [14]. Chip and Computing Power - NVIDIA's H20 chip, while limited in performance compared to its flagship models, is expected to support vertical model inference and may impact local chip manufacturers [15][16]. - The RTX Pro GPU is designed for digital factories and robotics, enhancing sensor simulation capabilities crucial for industrial applications [16]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the large model, computing power, and financial IT sectors, including Keda Xunfei, Kingsoft Office, and others [4].

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 7 月 21 日 002938.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 47.46 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 33.3 54.7 67.9 26.3 相对深圳成指 25.1 47.4 56.4 3.4 发行股数 (百万) 2,318.05 流通股 (百万) 2,306.78 总市值 (人民币 百万) 110,014.70 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 1,004.54 主要股东 美港实业有限公司 66.17% (30%) (18%) (6%) 7% 19% 31% Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 鹏鼎控股 深圳成指 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 7 月 18 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《鹏鼎控股》20250411 《鹏鼎控股》20241031 《鹏鼎控股》20240815 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨 ...

Consumption Insights - China's final consumption expenditure accounted for 56.6% of GDP in 2024, with household consumption at 70.6% and government consumption at 29.4%[9] - The nominal growth of final consumption expenditure in 2024 was only 3.9%, the second-lowest since 1995, while actual growth was 3.7%[26] - Government consumption expenditure growth was particularly weak, with a nominal increase of just 0.7% in 2024, compared to a 5.0% increase in household consumption[26] Economic Factors - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 44.5% in 2024, down from over 50% in most years since 2011[25] - The decline in household consumption growth is attributed to slowing income growth, particularly in property and transfer income, which saw declines of 5.44% and 5.00% respectively[36] - The wealth effect has weakened due to a downturn in the real estate market, impacting consumer spending[46] Policy Recommendations - Short-term strategies to boost consumption include enhancing government fiscal capacity, increasing transfer income for residents, and improving the nominal growth environment[57] - Long-term strategies focus on reforming income distribution systems and promoting urbanization as key drivers for consumption growth[57] - Strengthening fiscal policy is essential, as local government leverage reached a historical high of 36.8% by early 2025, indicating a need for central government intervention[58] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence remains low, with the consumer confidence index at 88% and the consumer expectation index at 89.5% as of May 2025, both below the neutral level of 100%[47] - The Engel coefficient for urban residents was 28.8% in 2024, indicating a rise in basic consumption needs relative to total consumption[49]

Group 1: Key Insights on Macro Economy - The "urban renewal" is highlighted as a significant focus for future urban work, with infrastructure and real estate investment expected to be boosted [5][6] - The central urban work conference emphasized transitioning urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on quality and efficiency [5][6] - The meeting underscored the importance of "innovation" as a key theme, aiming to stimulate high-tech industry investment through urban renewal initiatives [7] Group 2: Insights on Intelligent Driving Industry - Intelligent driving is positioned as a leading application of physical AI, with the potential to drive investment opportunities across the industry chain [8][10] - The report identifies a shift in competitive focus among domestic automakers from merely increasing the number of operational cities to achieving nationwide functionality of intelligent driving features [9][10] - The technological paradigm shift towards data-driven and knowledge-driven approaches is enhancing the generalization performance of intelligent driving systems, paving the way for faster deployment of high-level intelligent driving [9] Group 3: Insights on Defense and Aerospace Industry - The company, 菲利华, is positioning its quartz fiber electronic cloth as a core material for M9 PCBs in the computing era, benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution [12][13] - The semiconductor and optical materials sectors are expected to gain from the increasing demand for high-purity, high-temperature resistant quartz products, with the global semiconductor quartz product market projected to grow from $3.226 billion in 2024 to $7.321 billion by 2031 [13] - 菲利华 is actively expanding its production capacity in the quartz fiber electronic cloth market, aiming to capture early advantages in this emerging sector [12][14]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment shows a strong performance in the first half of the year, with actual GDP growth of 5.3%, laying a solid foundation for the annual target of 5.0% [2][22] - Industrial added value and retail sales both maintained strong growth, with industrial added value increasing by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of the year [2][22] - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8%, although real estate development investment saw a decline of 11.2% [22][33] Group 2 - The report maintains a preference for asset allocation in the order of stocks, commodities, bonds, and currency, indicating a bullish outlook on stocks [3][4] - The stock market showed positive performance, with the ChiNext Index rising by 3.17% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.04% [37] - The bond market remains under pressure, with a recommendation for lower allocation due to potential short-term impacts from stock market fluctuations [4][43] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of fiscal policy in stimulating domestic demand, especially in light of uncertainties in external demand due to U.S. tariff policies [2][22] - The central urban work conference emphasized the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on quality improvement rather than quantity expansion [20][33] - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from policies supporting consumption, with significant year-on-year growth in wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles [33][40]

Group 1 - The report highlights the expectation of a "de-involution" trend, which may lead to a temporary rise in market sentiment, particularly focusing on domestic computing power, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals as key investment opportunities [1][2][10] - The humanoid robotics industry is experiencing significant catalysts, with Yuzhu Technology set to debut on the A-share market, marking a critical milestone for the industry and enhancing resource integration and supply chain optimization [2][30][32] - The computing power industry is also seeing renewed catalysts, with the introduction of the H20 chip, which is expected to alleviate supply pressures and stimulate demand across the AI industry chain [2][36][40] Group 2 - The report indicates that the luxury car market will benefit from a reduction in tax thresholds for super luxury vehicles, which may disrupt the current market dynamics and provide competitive advantages for electric luxury cars [2][47] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is poised for growth due to recent policy adjustments that expand payment options for innovative drugs, enhancing their market potential [2][40][43] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of key sectors, with the automotive, pharmaceutical, and communication industries receiving significant capital inflows recently [2][43][44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariffs' impact on US inflation has partially emerged, with varying effects on different commodities, and further inflation effects will depend on the domestic production process [3][12] - The US still needs restrictive monetary policy to curb inflation from the demand side, and the relatively normal wage growth helps suppress inflation [3][15] - Replacing the Fed Chair alone may not change the policy direction and could damage monetary policy credibility. The Fed's rate - cut rhythm depends on tariffs' impact on inflation, and currently, a rate cut restart in October is expected [3][16] - If the Fed "changes leadership" soon, it may benefit the precious metals market and steepen the US Treasury yield curve [3][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - Tariffs' impact on US inflation is partially reflected in terminal goods. Different products are affected differently, and the impact on inflation will further manifest with the domestic production process [3][12] - The US needs restrictive monetary policy to control inflation from the demand side. In June, the core commodity CPI expanded, and retail data showed resilience [3][15] - Replacing the Fed Chair may not change the overall FOMC attitude. The probability of Powell being replaced soon is low, and the Fed's rate - cut decision depends on tariff - inflation effects [3][16] - A list of high - frequency data's weekly环比 changes is provided, including data on food, other consumer goods, energy, metals, real estate, and shipping [19] High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trend Comparison - Multiple charts show the comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators such as PPI, CPI, and export amounts [24][26][29] Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display US weekly economic indicators, employment data, sales data, financial conditions, and the implied interest - rate adjustment prospects of the Fed and ECB [84][86][91] Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - Charts present the seasonal trends of various high - frequency data, including production data, price indices, and real - estate - related data [95][99][109] High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Charts show the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in these four cities [152][154]