2025 年 03 月 18 日 公司点评 买入/维持 361 度(01361) 目标价: 昨收盘:4.82 24 年财报点评：营收破百亿，25 年布局超品店有望带来新增量 ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (14%) 2% 18% 34% 50% 24/3/18 24/5/29 24/8/9 24/10/20 24/12/31 25/3/13 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 20.68/20.68 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿港元) | 99.66/99.66 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 4.98/3.15 | | (港元) | | 相关研究报告 <<24Q3 经营数据点评：运营持续稳 健，国庆表现强劲，看好全年百亿收 入目标达成>>--2024-10-21 <<361 度点评：24Q1 流水表现亮眼， 期待全年百亿收入目标达成>>-- 2024-04-13 <<2023 年业绩点评：业绩表现超预 期，24 年收入有望破百亿>>--2024- 03-14 证券分析师：郭彬 E-MAIL：guobin@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190519090001 证券 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on Tencent Holdings with an expected revenue growth of 8.8% year-on-year for Q4 2024 and 7.8% for the entire year [4]. Core Insights - Tencent is anticipated to report a Q4 revenue of 168.9 billion RMB, with a full-year revenue forecast of 656.5 billion RMB, reflecting strong growth in value-added services and marketing services [4]. - The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 54.1 billion RMB in Q4, marking a 26.7% increase year-on-year, and 220.6 billion RMB for the full year, representing a 39.9% growth [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with lower-than-expected sales and management expense ratios [5]. Revenue Breakdown - Value-added services are expected to generate 77.1 billion RMB in Q4, up 11.6% year-on-year, and 317.2 billion RMB for the full year, an increase of 6.3% [4]. - Marketing services are projected to grow by 13.6% year-on-year in Q4 to 33.8 billion RMB, with a full-year growth of 18.46% to 120.2 billion RMB [4]. - Cloud and financial services are expected to record 55.9 billion RMB in Q4, a 2.7% increase, and 211.7 billion RMB for the full year, up 3.9% [4]. AI and Product Development - Tencent's new feature in Tencent Yuanbao allows users to upload and export Tencent documents, enhancing productivity and collaboration [6]. - Tencent Games is set to showcase new products at the 2025 Game Developers Conference, including the highly anticipated multiplayer adventure game "Honor of Kings World," which could contribute 1 to 1.5 billion RMB monthly if successful [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (stock code: 2015.HK) [1][4][5] Core Views - Li Auto achieved a revenue of 144.46 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%, but net profit decreased by 31.37% to 8.03 billion yuan [4][6] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 44.27 billion yuan, up 6.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.52 billion yuan, down 37.74% year-on-year [4] - The company delivered 500,500 vehicles in 2024, a 33.10% increase year-on-year, with Q4 deliveries reaching 158,700 units, a 20.40% increase year-on-year [4][5] - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles decreased by 13.48% year-on-year to 276,800 yuan in 2024, primarily due to the increased sales of lower-priced models [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2025E: Revenue of 186.90 billion yuan, net profit of 11.49 billion yuan, EPS of 5.41 yuan [6][8] - 2026E: Revenue of 235.39 billion yuan, net profit of 15.40 billion yuan, EPS of 7.26 yuan [6][8] - 2027E: Revenue of 276.45 billion yuan, net profit of 19.11 billion yuan, EPS of 9.01 yuan [6][8] - Key Financial Ratios: - 2024: Gross margin at 20.53%, net profit margin at 5.56% [8] - 2025E: Gross margin expected to decrease to 19.86% [8] - 2024 R&D expense ratio at 7.66%, with a focus on maintaining cost control [4][6] Strategic Initiatives - The launch of new electric models, including the i8 and i6, is expected to enhance market competitiveness and drive sales growth [4][5] - The company is expanding its charging infrastructure, with plans to increase the number of charging stations to 4,000 by the end of 2025 [4][5] - Li Auto is focusing on international market expansion, establishing a presence in Central Asia and planning to enter markets in the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The company, 德昌电机控股, is actively exploring applications for humanoid robots and aims to leverage its expertise in drive systems to tap into high-growth markets [8] - The automotive sector is a key growth area, with revenue from automotive products expected to grow at a rate of 10% annually over the next three fiscal years [9] - The company forecasts revenue growth from $3.814 billion in 2024 to $4.939 billion in 2027, with net profit increasing from $229 million to $396 million during the same period [7][11] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: $3.647 billion - 2024: $3.815 billion (YoY growth of 6%) - 2025: $4.135 billion (YoY growth of 8%) - 2026: $4.519 billion (YoY growth of 9%) - 2027: $4.939 billion (YoY growth of 9%) [7] - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: $158 million - 2024: $229 million (YoY growth of 45%) - 2025: $295 million (YoY growth of 29%) - 2026: $352 million (YoY growth of 19%) - 2027: $396 million (YoY growth of 12%) [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from $0.17 in 2023 to $0.42 in 2027 [7] Market Performance - The automotive product revenue for the fiscal year 2024 is expected to reach $3.210 billion, reflecting a 10.2% increase [11] - The company has reported a 10% revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific region for automotive products, outperforming the regional light vehicle production growth of 8% [9] - In the Americas, automotive product revenue is projected to grow by 9%, exceeding the estimated 6% increase in vehicle production [9] Valuation - The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio range of 8 to 10 times for 2025, leading to a fair value range of HKD 19.69 to HKD 24.61 [8]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.16 2024 年收入稳健增长，至尊浓缩引领行业变革 蓝月亮集团(6993) ——蓝月亮集团更新报告 [Table_Industry] 耐用消费品 毛利率显著提升，推广开支增加拖累净利 2024.03.28 渠道改革成效渐显，有望重回增长轨道 2023.12.03 | 财务摘要（百万港元） | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 7,597 | 7,947 | 7,324 | 8,503 | 9,389 | 10,381 | | (+/-)% | 8.6% | 4.6% | -7.8% | 16.1% | 10.4% | 10.6% | | 毛利润 | 4,439 | 4,595 | 4,540 | 5,187 | 5,727 | 6,332 | | 净利润 | 1,014 | 611 | 325 | -706.6 | 406.0 | 587.7 | | (+/-)% | -22.5% | -39. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [10]. Core Viewpoints - The rapid development of the Mao Geping brand since 2019 is attributed to the favorable trends in high-end cosmetics and the return to traditional aesthetics, supported by the brand's classic philosophy, the founder's unique industry position, and high-quality products, creating significant entry barriers [3][5][21]. - The company is expected to benefit from a clear growth logic in the medium to long term, driven by product diversification and channel optimization [8][29]. Product Analysis - The brand is expanding its product lines, including color cosmetics, skincare, and fragrance, with a focus on enhancing its foundation category and introducing new products that align with consumer preferences [6][28]. - The foundation category is transitioning from niche professional products to more mainstream offerings, with a rich reserve of potential single products [32][35]. - The skincare line is being upgraded to meet technological trends, with significant products like the caviar mask becoming a flagship item [45][48]. Channel Strategy - The company has a solid offline presence while online channels are expected to become a significant source of revenue and profit, with online growth outpacing offline [7][34]. - Offline, the brand is enhancing store efficiency through strategic upgrades in shopping districts, while online, it is focusing on detailed operations to attract younger consumers [7][34]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 9.01 billion, 12.00 billion, and 15.42 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 51, 38, and 30 times [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (stock code: 2015.HK) [1] Core Views - Li Auto achieved a revenue of 144.46 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%, but net profit decreased by 31.37% to 8.03 billion yuan, with an EPS of 4.03 yuan [4] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 44.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.09%, and a net profit of 3.52 billion yuan, down 37.74% year-on-year but up 25.18% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company delivered 500,500 vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33.10%, with Q4 deliveries reaching 158,700 units, up 20.40% year-on-year [4] - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles decreased by 13.48% year-on-year to 276,800 yuan in 2024, with Q4 ASP at 268,700 yuan, down 12.29% year-on-year [4] - The company expects Q1 2025 deliveries to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 15.7% [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are as follows: - 2025E Revenue: 186.90 billion yuan, Net Profit: 11.49 billion yuan, EPS: 5.41 yuan - 2026E Revenue: 235.39 billion yuan, Net Profit: 15.40 billion yuan, EPS: 7.26 yuan - 2027E Revenue: 276.45 billion yuan, Net Profit: 19.11 billion yuan, EPS: 9.01 yuan [6][8] - The company’s gross margin for vehicle sales in 2024 was 19.8%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [4] - R&D expense ratio for 2024 was 7.66%, a decrease of 0.88 percentage points year-on-year [4] Strategic Initiatives - The launch of new electric models, including the i8 SUV in July and the i6 later in the year, aims to enhance market presence [4] - Upgrades in intelligent driving technology and expansion of charging infrastructure are expected to boost sales [4] - The company is focusing on international market expansion, establishing a luxury brand image in Central Asia and planning to enter markets in the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong revenue and net profit growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% for revenue and 41% for net profit from 2021 to 2023. For the first half of 2024, revenue and net profit both increased by 41% year-on-year [4][6]. - The company has a robust product development capability, with a total of 387 products as of June 30, 2024, including 337 makeup items and 50 skincare items, averaging about 75 new product upgrades annually [6]. - The company has a strong channel management capability, with 372 self-operated counters, ranking second among all beauty brands in China, and a diverse online sales presence across major e-commerce platforms [6]. - The company targets the high-end segment of the makeup market, maintaining a significant price difference from international brands, with a strong performance in light-reflecting products [6]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 40.58 billion, 55.56 billion, and 72.94 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41%, 37%, and 31% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 8.9 billion, 12.2 billion, and 16.3 billion RMB for the same years, with growth rates of 35%, 37%, and 34% [7]. - The report provides a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 52, 38, and 28 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, based on the closing price of 101.0 HKD on March 14, 2024 [6][7].

华润建材科技 (1313 HK) 证券研究报告 港股通 Q4 毛利率环比改善，期待盈利弹性 | 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 3 月 | 17 日│中国香港 | 水泥 | 公司公布 24 年业绩：24 年公司实现收入/归母净利 230.4/2.11 亿元，同比 -9.8%/-67.2%，24H2 收入/归母净利 125.9/0.5 亿元，同比-11.3%/-44.1%， 归母净利符合业绩预告，主要系水泥价格回落及减值损失增加。我们认为随 着节后开工实物量逐步恢复及错峰生产执行背景下，水泥价格中枢有望抬 升，叠加骨料业务高速扩张，公司作为华南龙头有望持续受益，维持"买入"。 Q4 毛利率环比显著改善，骨料全年销量高增 24 年公司水泥/混凝土/骨料业务实现收入 150.4/41.6/25.2 亿元，同比 -20.4%/+21.6%/+56.2%，其中销量同比-10.9%/+39.6%/+52.1%，对应均 价 同 比 -10.6%/-12.9%/+2.8% ； 毛 利 率 为 15.1%/12.2%/35.1% ，同比 +3.4/+0.3/-19.2p ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15.03 HKD, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The company has successfully implemented a platform-based development strategy, leading to a significant increase in platform technology service revenue, which reached 3.47 billion HKD, a year-on-year growth of 103.6% [2]. - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected to be 3.80 billion HKD, reflecting a 42% increase year-on-year, despite the impact of the divestment of Wuxi Guojin Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd [1]. - The integration of AI technology into the supply chain has positioned the company as a leader in the AI + industrial supply chain sector, with a focus on infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, and bulk commodities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects total revenue of 9.19 billion HKD, a decrease of 4.6% year-on-year, primarily due to the divestment impact, which is offset by growth in platform technology services [1]. - The platform technology services now account for 37.7% of total revenue, up from 17.7% in 2023 [2]. Strategic Developments - The company has established strong partnerships with local state-owned enterprises, enhancing its platform-based financial services and increasing the number of funding partners to 163, a growth of 24.4% [2]. - The company is actively exploring new markets, including e-commerce and robotics, with potential market sizes exceeding 10 trillion HKD [4][5]. AI and Technology Integration - The company has integrated its cloud platform with DeepSeek AI, enhancing its capabilities in supply chain management and decision support [4]. - The company has also secured computational resources from Wuxi Economic Development Zone, which will support its AI initiatives [4]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026 have been adjusted to 11.11 billion HKD and 13.46 billion HKD, respectively, with net profit projections of 4.98 billion HKD and 6.53 billion HKD [6]. - A new revenue forecast for FY2027 is set at 16.15 billion HKD, with a net profit of 8.36 billion HKD [6].