[Table_Title] 2024 年业绩亮眼，线上业务高增 ——361 度（01361）2024 年业绩点评 2025 年 03 月 16 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 马川琪 S0350523050001 macq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 廖小慧 S0350524080002 liaoxh@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2025/03/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 361 度 | 16.5% | 9.3% | 14.2% | | 恒生指数 | 5.9% | 20.0% | 41.3% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/03/14 | | 当前价格（港元） | | | 4.72 | | 52 周价格区间（港元） | | | 3.15-4.85 | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | 9,759.46 | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | 9,759.46 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 206,768.20 | | 流通股本（万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of HKD 75.96 per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - Kuaishou's Keling technology is positioned to lead in the multi-modal video generation space, with significant competitive advantages and ongoing technological iterations [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring of video generation model advancements and AI empowerment in existing business operations [4][8]. - Kuaishou's revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at CNY 127.19 billion, CNY 141.03 billion, and CNY 154.13 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of CNY 15.22 billion, CNY 19.05 billion, and CNY 23.42 billion [9]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Video Generation Model Development - The video generation model is entering a rapid development phase, with Kuaishou's Keling technology being a top player globally, particularly in core evaluation metrics such as consistency and precise control [22][31]. - The DiT architecture is identified as the mainstream framework for video generation, with Kuaishou quickly achieving technological breakthroughs [22][23]. Section 2: Kuaishou's Competitive Position - Keling's technological capabilities and data resource advantages position it favorably for future developments in the AI-driven content community [8][19]. - Kuaishou's strategic focus and unified organizational structure enhance its execution efficiency [8][19]. Section 3: Financial Performance and Market Position - Kuaishou's user engagement metrics remain strong, with MAU and DAU showing consistent growth, and daily average usage time maintained at high levels [8][9]. - The e-commerce GMV is expected to grow by 13.5% in 2025, outpacing the market, while online marketing services are projected to increase by 15.6% [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a strong annual performance for 2024, with total revenue of 10.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.15 billion, also up 19.5%. The cash dividend payout ratio increased to 45% [1][6] - The main brand, 361°, continues to lead the adult apparel segment with double-digit growth, driven primarily by volume increases. The footwear segment generated revenue of 4.29 billion, up 22.1%, while the apparel segment reached 3.09 billion, up 15.1% [2] - The children's apparel segment also showed strong growth, with revenue of 2.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. The footwear category contributed 1.1 billion, up 17.5%, while the apparel category reached 1.21 billion, up 22.6% [3][4] - E-commerce sales remained active, totaling 2.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, accounting for 25.9% of total sales. The company ranked among the top five footwear brands during major sales events [5] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth of 13% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 11% in 2027, reaching 11.4 billion, 12.7 billion, and 14.2 billion respectively. Net profit is expected to grow by 14% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 12% in 2027, reaching 1.38 billion, 1.47 billion, and 1.65 billion respectively [6][12] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.9, 6.1, and 5.5 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation for a leading player in the sportswear market [6][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a strong annual growth for 2024, with total revenue reaching 10.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.15 billion, also up by 19.5%. The cash dividend payout ratio increased to 45% [1] - The main brand, 361°, continues to lead the adult apparel segment with double-digit growth, driven primarily by volume increases. Footwear revenue reached 4.29 billion, up 22.1%, while apparel revenue was 3.09 billion, up 15.1% [2] - The children's clothing segment also showed strong growth, with revenue of 2.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. Footwear sales in this category reached 1.1 billion, up 17.5% [3] - E-commerce sales remained active, totaling 2.61 billion, a 12.2% increase, with a significant contribution from differentiated products [5] - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 13% in 2025, reaching 11.4 billion, and net profit growth of 14% to 1.38 billion, with a corresponding PE ratio of 6.9 [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 10,073.5 million, a 19.59% increase, and net profit of 1,148.6 million, a 19.47% increase. The projected revenue for 2025 is 11,405.9 million, with a growth rate of 13.23% [12] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 41.53%, with net profit margin at 11.84% [13] Product and Market Development - The company continues to innovate with new product lines, including advanced technology footwear and expanding its children's product line to cover ages up to 16 [4] - The company has increased its offline retail presence, with 5,750 stores and a focus on enhancing customer experience through new retail formats [2] E-commerce and Sales Channels - E-commerce sales accounted for 25.9% of total sales, with significant growth during promotional events, such as a 99% increase during the 618 shopping festival [5] Future Outlook - The company is projected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 12,737.8 million in 2026 and 14,191.4 million in 2027, alongside net profits of 1,470.7 million and 1,646.9 million respectively [12]

Investment Rating - The report gives a positive outlook on Angelalign, indicating an "Outperform" rating for the stock over the next 12-18 months, expecting a relative return exceeding 10% compared to the benchmark index [16]. Core Insights - Angelalign is advancing its globalization strategy by establishing a new manufacturing facility in Wisconsin, USA, which will span 52,000 square feet and utilize proprietary automated 3D printing technology, positioning it as one of the world's most advanced orthodontic appliance manufacturing centers [5][6]. - The company initiated its overseas expansion in 2022, with overseas clear aligner cases growing to 33,000 in 2023, representing 13% of total cases. Projections for 2024 suggest that overseas cases could exceed 110,000, accounting for over 30% of total cases [2][6]. - The construction of the overseas factory is expected to yield three main benefits: 1) Automated production lines that can quickly respond to demand; 2) Reduced shipping and production costs; 3) Mitigation of tariff risks associated with international trade [2][6]. - The report expresses optimism regarding the application of AI technology in the consumer healthcare sector, which is anticipated to reduce information asymmetry and enhance demand for medical products, particularly in the beauty and youthfulness segments [2][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Angelalign is set to build a factory in the US, marking a significant milestone in its globalization strategy [5]. Market Expansion - The company has seen substantial growth in overseas markets, with a notable increase in clear aligner cases and expectations for continued growth in 2024 [2][6]. Technological Advancements - The integration of AI technology in consumer healthcare is highlighted as a key driver for reducing information asymmetry and enhancing market penetration for Angelalign's products [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of HKD 75.96 per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - Kuaishou's technology in multi-modal video generation is globally leading, particularly with its Keling model, which is positioned as a top competitor in the industry [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous technological iteration in video generation models and Kuaishou's competitive advantages in this space [4][8]. - The company is expected to see steady growth in its e-commerce GMV, projected to increase by 13.5% in 2025, outpacing the market [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Adjusted net profit forecasts for Kuaishou are CNY 176 billion, CNY 201 billion, and CNY 247 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]. - The report highlights a stable financial outlook with a low to mid-range valuation, providing a good safety margin for investors [8]. Video Generation Model Development - The report identifies the DiT architecture as the mainstream framework for video generation, with Kuaishou's Keling model being a leading player in this domain [22][23]. - Kuaishou's Keling model is noted for its superior performance in key evaluation metrics such as consistency and precise control, making it a top competitor globally [8][30]. User Engagement and Commercialization - Kuaishou's user engagement metrics remain strong, with MAU and DAU showing consistent growth, and average daily usage time maintained at 120-130 minutes [8][9]. - The report anticipates a transition in Kuaishou's business model from PUGC tools to multi-scenario empowerment, indicating a shift towards broader user engagement and monetization strategies [19][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6]. Core Insights - AIA Group achieved a strong performance in 2024 with a New Business Value (NBV) of USD 4.712 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 18%. The annualized new premiums reached USD 8.606 billion, up 14% year-on-year, with an NBV margin improvement of 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [1]. - The growth in NBV was driven by significant contributions from both the agency force and partner distribution channels, which recorded NBV of USD 3.707 billion and USD 1.301 billion, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 16% and 28% [1]. - All regions reported double-digit growth in new business value, with notable increases in Mainland China and Hong Kong, achieving growth rates of 20% and 23%, respectively [1][2]. Summary by Sections Group Performance - AIA Group's 2024 NBV reached USD 4.712 billion, up 18% year-on-year, with annualized new premiums of USD 8.606 billion, reflecting a 14% increase. The NBV margin improved to 54.5% [1]. Mainland China - In Mainland China, the 2024 NBV recorded a year-on-year growth of 20% to USD 1.217 billion, with new subsidiaries contributing 27% to the growth. The NBV margin increased by 4.9 percentage points to 56.1% [2]. Hong Kong - Hong Kong's 2024 NBV grew by 23% to USD 1.764 billion, the highest proportion within the group. The demand for flagship savings products remained strong, and the company expects continued robust growth in 2025 [3]. ASEAN and Other Markets - AIA successfully capitalized on wealth growth opportunities in Singapore, achieving a 15% increase in NBV to USD 0.454 billion. Thailand and Malaysia also reported NBV growth of 15% and 10%, respectively [4]. OPAT and Share Buyback - The 2024 Operating Profit After Tax (OPAT) was USD 6.605 billion, up 7% year-on-year, with a per-share increase of 12%. A new share buyback plan of USD 1.6 billion has been approved, expected to yield approximately 6% total return for shareholders [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates continued strong growth in 2025, driven by market expansion in Mainland China and sustained demand for savings products in Hong Kong. The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upward to USD 7.55 billion, USD 7.94 billion, and USD 8.39 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10.4%, 5.2%, and 5.6% respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$19.45, representing a potential upside of 15% from the current price of HK$16.96 [1][5][6]. Core Views - The report anticipates low single-digit growth in both revenue and profit for 2024, with a projected revenue increase of 4.0% to RMB 431.1 billion and a net profit growth of 2.1% to RMB 45.9 billion [3][5]. - The company is expected to face significant operational pressure in Q1 2025, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and recent public relations issues at specific locations [4][5]. - Despite challenges, the long-term growth logic of "steady revenue growth and outstanding profitability" remains intact, with a projected market capitalization range of HK$570 billion to HK$1,141 billion based on various assumptions [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - For 2024, revenue is expected to reach RMB 431.1 billion, with a net profit of RMB 45.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0% and 2.1% respectively [3][6]. - The report projects a slight increase in gross margin to 61.5% due to lower beef and lamb prices, despite a slight decline in net profit margin to 10.7% [3][6]. Adjustments to Estimates - The target price has been raised by 25% from HK$15.55 to HK$19.45, reflecting a 19x P/E ratio for 2026 [1][5]. - Revenue estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards by 6.5%, 9.2%, and 10.5% respectively, while net profit estimates have been slightly adjusted upwards for 2024 and 2025, but down for 2026 [7][6]. Financial Summary - The financial data indicates a steady increase in revenue from RMB 31,039 million in 2022 to an expected RMB 46,859 million in 2026, with net profit projected to grow from RMB 1,374 million in 2022 to RMB 5,362 million in 2026 [6][13]. - The report highlights a consistent improvement in earnings per share (EPS), projected to rise from RMB 0.25 in 2022 to RMB 0.96 in 2026 [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$19.45, representing a potential upside of 15% from the current price of HK$16.96 [1][5]. Core Insights - The report anticipates low single-digit growth in both revenue and profit for 2024, with a projected revenue increase of 4.0% to RMB 431.1 billion and a net profit growth of 2.1% to RMB 45.9 billion [3][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to face significant operational pressure, with potential revenue and profit declines due to high base effects from the previous year [4][5]. - The valuation is based on a 19x P/E ratio for 2026, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 being RMB 0.82, RMB 0.91, and RMB 0.96 respectively [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 431.1 billion, with a 4.0% year-on-year growth. The net profit is projected to be RMB 45.9 billion, reflecting a 2.1% increase [3][6]. - The report outlines a slight increase in gross margin to 61.5% for 2024, driven by lower beef and lamb prices [3][7]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the revenue forecasts downwards for 2024-2026 by 6.5%, 9.2%, and 10.5% respectively, while net profit estimates are adjusted upwards by 2.1% for 2024 and 1.6% for 2025, but down by 0.4% for 2026 [7][6]. Market Position - Haidilao's market capitalization is approximately US$12.16 billion, with a current share count of 5,574 million [1][5]. - The report highlights that the company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory despite facing challenges in the upcoming quarters [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated significant growth resilience, with a reported NBV increase of 18% year-on-year to $4.712 billion in 2024, and a steady rise in operating profit by 7% [1][4]. - The company is confident in achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% to 11% for after-tax operating profit over the next three years [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In the 2024 annual report, the company reported an 18% year-on-year increase in NBV and a 7% increase in after-tax operating profit [1]. Operational Analysis - All reporting segments achieved double-digit growth in NBV, with a fixed exchange rate NBV of $4.712 billion in 2024, reflecting an 18% increase year-on-year. The margin improved by 1.9 percentage points to 54.5%, and annualized new business increased by 14% [2]. - Breakdown by regions: - Mainland China: NBV increased by 20%, annualized new business by 10%, and margin improved by 4.9 percentage points to 56.1% [2]. - Hong Kong: NBV rose by 23%, with local and MCV growth at 24% and 22% respectively, and margin increased by 8 percentage points to 65.5% [2]. - Southeast Asia (Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia): Thailand's NBV grew by 15%, Singapore's by 15% with a 52% increase in annualized new business, and Malaysia's by 10% [2]. Shareholder Returns - The company reported a 7% increase in after-tax operating profit, with a target of returning $6.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in 2024, equating to an approximate shareholder return rate of 8.3% [3]. - The company announced a $1.6 billion share buyback plan, including $600 million from free surplus and an additional $1 billion [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in NBV, with projected growth rates of 9%, 10%, and 10% for 2025-2027, and operating profit growth rates of 9%, 8%, and 9% respectively [4]. - The estimated PEV for 2025 is 1.20 times, which is at the 10th percentile of valuations since 2018 [4].