证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 03 15 年 月 日 中国宏桥（01378.HK） 历史最佳业绩，一体化成本优势凸显 事件：公司已于 3 月 14 日公布 2024 年全年业绩，2024 年公司实现营收 1561.7 亿元，同比增长 16.9%；实现归母净利润 223.7 亿元，同比增长 95.2%；扣非归母净利润 245.7 亿元，同比增长 96.1%；基本每股收益 2.36 元，同比增长 95.2%。净利润增加主要系电解铝及氧化铝"量价齐 升"及原材料采购价格较 2023 年同期下降所致。目前铝价在全球低库存 及国内供给刚性凸显下维持高位预期，并有望伴随美联储降息及新能源 相关绿色用铝占比提升带来定价中枢进一步上移，凭借铝行业高景气延 续，公司业绩弹性有望持续提升。 受益铝行业高景气，各产品"量价齐升"增厚公司业绩。1）量，公司实 现电解铝销量 583.7 万吨，同比增长 1.5%；氧化铝销量 1092.1 万吨， 同比增长 5.3%；铝合金加工产品销量 76.6 万吨，同比增长 32.1%。2） 价，公司电解铝外售价为 1.755 万元/吨（不含税），同比增长 6. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to release two new electric vehicle models in the second half of 2025, which may create surprises. Continuous investment in AI is anticipated to enhance the competitiveness of its Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) [4][5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been adjusted downwards from 169.2 billion to 166.2 billion CNY and from 216.2 billion to 215.6 billion CNY, with a new forecast for 2027 at 244 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth of 15.1%, 29.7%, and 13.2% respectively [4] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised down from 13.2 billion to 11.2 billion CNY and from 17.8 billion to 16.9 billion CNY, with a new forecast for 2027 at 22.8 billion CNY, corresponding to EPS of 5.2, 7.8, and 10.4 CNY [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 123.85 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 173.5%. For 2024, revenue is expected to be 144.46 billion CNY, growing by 16.6%, and for 2025, it is projected at 166.2 billion CNY, with a growth of 15.1% [6] - The net profit for 2023 is 12.198 billion CNY, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 58,494.3%. For 2024, it is expected to be 10.671 billion CNY, a decrease of 12.5%, and for 2025, it is projected at 11.153 billion CNY, with a growth of 4.5% [6] - The gross margin is expected to be 22% in 2023, decreasing to 21% in 2024, and further to 20% in 2025, before recovering to 21% in 2026 and 22% in 2027 [6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 19.9, 13.3, and 9.9 respectively, indicating a potential undervaluation in the coming years [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (LI.US/2015.HK) and raises the target price to $32.2, indicating a potential upside of 17% [3][10]. Core Insights - Li Auto's growth momentum for 2025 is driven by the launch of new models and expansion of its sales network, with a solid foundation for increased total deliveries this year [10]. - The company is focusing on international market expansion, which is expected to contribute to incremental growth over the next two years [10]. - Li Auto emphasizes the strategic importance of AI investments to ensure long-term competitive advantages [10]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 123.9 billion in 2023 to RMB 259.4 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% in 2026 [4]. - Gross margin is expected to stabilize around 20.9% by 2027, while net profit is forecasted to increase from a loss of RMB 11.7 billion in 2023 to a profit of RMB 17.5 billion in 2027 [4][11]. - The target price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.7x for 2025, which is considered attractive compared to peers [10]. Performance Review and Adjustments - In Q4 2024, Li Auto's revenue reached RMB 44.3 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, while net profit was RMB 3.5 billion, down 38% year-over-year [12]. - The company reported a gross margin of 20.3% in Q4 2024, reflecting a decline due to the introduction of new models and cost pressures [12]. - Adjustments to revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been made, with expected revenues of RMB 176.4 billion and RMB 230.5 billion respectively, reflecting a 12% reduction from previous estimates [14]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying different price-to-earnings ratios for automotive sales and other revenues, leading to a target price of $32.2 for Li Auto [18]. - The report also provides a target price of HKD 132.0 for Li Auto-W (2015.HK), reflecting similar growth expectations [6][18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral with a target price of HKD 93.62, reflecting a potential downside of 17.3% from the current closing price of HKD 113.20 [1][7][8]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the automotive gross margin for the fourth quarter was below expectations, with a gross margin of 19.7%, which is lower than the market expectation of approximately 20%. This decline is attributed to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) and an increase in per-vehicle costs, including provisions for purchase commitment losses and promotional activities [2][8]. - The company has guided first-quarter sales to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, with March sales estimated at 32,000 to 37,000 units, indicating that price reductions have effectively stimulated sales recovery. However, the ASP is expected to continue declining to around RMB 250,000 in the first quarter, which is below expectations [2][8]. Financial Overview - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 123.851 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 173.5%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach RMB 144.460 billion, reflecting a growth of 16.6% [3][16]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 11.704 billion, with a significant decline of 673.8% year-on-year. The forecast for 2024 shows a net profit of RMB 8.032 billion, a further decrease of 32.2% [3][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at RMB 5.95, dropping to RMB 4.03 in 2024, with a forecasted EPS of RMB 4.29 for 2025 [3][16]. Market Competition and Challenges - The report highlights that the competition in the automotive market is shifting from incremental to stock competition, with more competitors entering the range-extended vehicle segment in 2025. This includes the launch of new models from competitors that may impact the company's sales base [8]. - The report expresses concerns regarding the company's ability to maintain its gross margin, particularly with the introduction of new electric models expected to have lower margins, which could further pressure overall profitability [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Li Auto (LI.US/2015.HK) [3][10] Core Views - The target price for Li Auto is raised to $32.2, indicating a potential upside of 17% [3][5] - The target price for Li Auto-W is set at HKD 132.0, also reflecting a potential upside of 17% [6][10] - The growth momentum for 2025 is expected to come from new model launches and expansion into overseas markets, alongside a strategic focus on AI investments [10][30] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 123,851 million in 2023 to RMB 259,382 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% in 2026 [4][11] - Gross margin is expected to stabilize around 20.9% by 2027, after a slight decline in the earlier years [4][11] - Net profit is forecasted to improve from a loss of RMB 11,704 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 17,543 million by 2027 [4][11] Performance Review - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 44,274 million, a 6% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of RMB 3,523 million, down 38% from the previous year [12][10] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 20.3%, reflecting a decline compared to the previous year due to increased costs associated with new model launches [12][10] Market Expectations - The report highlights that the demand for new energy vehicles in China, particularly in the high-end segment, is expected to drive sales growth for Li Auto [30][35] - The company aims to enhance its AI capabilities and expand its retail network, with plans to open over 200 retail showrooms and 60 pop-up stores nationwide [10][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral with a target price of HKD 93.62, reflecting a potential downside of 17.3% from the current closing price of HKD 113.20 [1][7][8]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the automotive gross margin for the fourth quarter was below expectations, with a gross margin of 19.7%, which is lower than the market expectation of approximately 20%. This decline is attributed to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) and an increase in per-vehicle costs, including provisions for purchase commitment losses and promotional activities negatively impacting ASP [2][8]. - The company has guided for first-quarter sales between 88,000 to 93,000 vehicles, with March sales estimated at 32,000 to 37,000 vehicles, suggesting that recent price cuts have effectively stimulated sales recovery. However, the ASP is expected to continue declining to around RMB 250,000 in the first quarter, which is below expectations [2][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 123.851 billion - 2024: RMB 144.460 billion (YoY growth of 16.6%) - 2025E: RMB 157.981 billion (YoY growth of 9.4%) - 2026E: RMB 202.373 billion (YoY growth of 28.1%) - 2027E: RMB 224.975 billion (YoY growth of 11.2%) [3][16]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 11.704 billion - 2024: RMB 8.032 billion - 2025E: RMB 8.560 billion - 2026E: RMB 10.843 billion - 2027E: RMB 12.458 billion [3][16]. - The report highlights a significant drop in earnings per share (EPS) for 2023, with a forecast of RMB 5.95, declining to RMB 4.03 in 2024, and a slight recovery to RMB 4.29 in 2025 [3][16]. Market Competition and Challenges - The report notes that the company faces significant challenges in terms of sales growth, cost control, and market competitiveness. The competition is expected to intensify in 2025 with the introduction of more range-extended competitors, including new models from rival companies [8]. - The sales forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 7.5% to 558,000 vehicles, reflecting concerns over the sales performance of the range-extended series and new electric models [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (LI.US/2015.HK) [3][10] - The target price for Li Auto (LI.US) is raised to $32.2, indicating a potential upside of 17% [3][5] - The target price for Li Auto-W (2015.HK) is raised to HKD 132.0, also indicating a potential upside of 17% [3][6] Core Insights - Li Auto's growth momentum for 2025 is supported by the launch of new models and expansion of its sales network, with a solid foundation for total delivery growth [10] - The company is focusing on international market expansion, which is expected to contribute to incremental growth in the next two years [10] - Li Auto's strategic emphasis on AI investments is aimed at ensuring long-term competitive advantages [10] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for Li Auto from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 123,851 million - 2024: RMB 144,460 million (growth of 17%) - 2025E: RMB 176,440 million (growth of 22%) - 2026E: RMB 230,493 million (growth of 31%) - 2027E: RMB 259,382 million (growth of 13%) [4][11] - Gross margin is projected to be 22.2% in 2023, declining slightly to 20.9% by 2027 [4][11] - Net profit (loss) projections are as follows: - 2023: RMB 11,704 million - 2024: RMB 8,032 million (decline of 31%) - 2025E: RMB 8,724 million (growth of 9%) - 2026E: RMB 12,922 million (growth of 48%) - 2027E: RMB 17,543 million (growth of 36%) [4][11] Market Expectations - In Q4 2024, Li Auto's revenue reached RMB 44,274 million, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [12] - The company achieved a gross margin of 20.3% in Q4 2024, with a net profit of RMB 3,523 million, down 38% year-on-year but up 25% quarter-on-quarter [12] - The average selling price of vehicles decreased by 12% year-on-year to RMB 268,709 [12] Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a target price of $32.2 for Li Auto (LI.US) based on a target P/E ratio of 26.7x for 2025 [10][18] - The target price for Li Auto-W (2015.HK) is set at HKD 132.0 [10][18]

2025 年 3 月 17 日 公司研究 能源工程订单内外开花，算力中心建设蓬勃发展 ——中国能源建设（3996.HK）经营近况点评 要点 布局战新产业，积极构建全国一体化算力网络。公司凭借在绿电领域的技术优势 和全产业链一体化建设的优势，积极参与全国一体化算力网络系统的构建，已在 甘肃庆阳、宁夏中卫、安徽芜湖、广东韶关、山西大同、北京经开区等多个枢纽 节点投资或布局了数据中心项目。目前在建的甘肃庆阳大数据产业园示范项目， 一期工程已于 2024 年 9 月点亮投运，一次性通过中国质量认证中心（CQC）数 据中心场地基础设施认证，获颁国标最高等级——增强级（GB50174-2017A 级） 证书。公司旗下中能建（北京）智慧算力科技有限公司与城地香江签署了《附条 件生效的股份认购协议》，致力于打造算力中心"国家队"。 盈利预测、估值与评级：中国能源建设在电力建设及运营投资领域有竞争优势， 新签订单快速增长，算力中心建设蓬勃发展，我们看好公司在电力及算力等领域 的发展。公司在 2024 年前三季度归母净利润同比增长 17.3%，经营表现优异， 我们上调公司 24 年归母净利润预测至 86 亿元（上调约 3%），考 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for the company [2][5] Core Insights - The company has shown significant profit improvement, with a net profit increase of 200% year-on-year in 2024, reaching US$366 million [3][14] - The production of copper and zinc has steadily increased, with copper production at 400,000 tons in 2024, up 15% year-on-year, and zinc production at 220,000 tons, up 8% year-on-year [3][14] - The company is advancing major projects, including the successful development of Chalcobamba and the expansion of Kinsevere, which is expected to ramp up production in 2025 [15][17] - The company plans to acquire Brazilian Nickel for up to US$500 million, which is expected to enhance its nickel production capacity significantly by 2030 [17] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was US$4.479 billion, a 3% increase year-on-year, with EBITDA rising by 40% to US$2.049 billion [3][14] - The company expects EPS for 2025-2027 to be US$0.04, US$0.05, and US$0.05 respectively, translating to HK$0.31, HK$0.39, and HK$0.39 based on the current exchange rate [5][18] - The target price is set at HK$4.65, reflecting a 15x PE valuation based on the 2025 EPS [5][18] Production Guidance - For 2025, the company anticipates copper production of 470,000 to 520,000 tons, with specific contributions from Las Bambas, Khoemacau, and Kinsevere [9][16] - Zinc production is expected to be between 310,000 and 340,000 tons [9][16] Capital Expenditure - The company projects capital expenditures of US$1.2 billion to US$1.3 billion for 2025, with significant allocations for Las Bambas, Khoemacau, and Kinsevere [16][17]

联合研究丨港股公司深度丨贝壳-W（2423.HK） [Table_Title] 房屋经纪王者归来，三翼齐飞开拓未来 ——贝壳-W 深度覆盖报告 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 经纪主业护城河竞对难以逾越，直营品牌链家先发占据核心战场，通过贝联把握下沉市场实现 市占扩张。二手市场边际向好而低线城市新房市场低迷为公司经营舒适区间，二手业务提量新 房业务提价，公司业绩持续增厚，经营杠杆也会放大盈利弹性。家装与租赁业务短期增收不增 利，但中期有望为公司贡献较大业绩增量。鉴于竞争优势、相对稀缺、潜在业绩弹性以及入通 后的增量资金等因素，公司短期应当享有一定估值溢价。中长期角度，经纪业务份额仍有提升 空间，家装、租赁可贡献潜在增长，数据资产具备较大价值弹性，公司属于战略配置品种。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 范超 蔡方羿 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490516060001 SFC：BUV416 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BUV463 袁佳楠 ...