Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 56.05 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 430 million for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21%. However, it incurred a net loss of RMB 510 million and an adjusted net loss of RMB 480 million. The sales performance of the product, Sipulizumab, in the nasal indication has shown strong initial results, with sales of approximately RMB 43 million in the first three and a half months post-approval [1][2]. - The company is expected to continue its progress in commercialization and pipeline development, particularly in the nasal indication, which is currently the only approved treatment in China. The potential for significant sales growth is anticipated due to the product's efficacy and safety profile [1][3]. - The company has a robust pipeline with several clinical trials underway, including CM313 for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and other indications. Data from the I/II phase trials for SLE is expected to be disclosed in the second half of 2025 [3][4]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s cash reserves are strong, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to RMB 2.16 billion by the end of 2024. This financial position supports ongoing commercialization efforts and pipeline development [4]. - Revenue projections have been adjusted, with expected revenues of RMB 717 million in 2025 and RMB 1.096 billion in 2026, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [7][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been revised to -RMB 2.69 for 2025 and -RMB 2.33 for 2026, with a projected positive EPS of RMB 0.36 in 2027 [5][21]. Valuation - The company’s fair value based on discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is estimated at approximately RMB 14.3 billion, leading to a target price of HKD 56.05, reflecting a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.3% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.5% [5][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 7.82 HKD [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue increase of 6.5% year-on-year to 18.1 billion RMB and a net profit increase of 5.3% year-on-year to 5.5 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2024. The fourth quarter saw a revenue increase of 10.8% and a net profit increase of 20% [1][2]. - The proposed dividend for the fiscal year 2024 is 0.385 RMB per share, representing a 20% increase year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 42% and a corresponding dividend yield of approximately 6.75% [1][2]. - The company benefits from a favorable environment for high-dividend stocks in a low-interest-rate context, enhancing its investment appeal [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's toll road revenue and segment profit are expected to grow by 2.3% and 13.1% year-on-year, respectively, contributing approximately 72% to the net profit [2]. - The growth in truck and passenger vehicle traffic is driven by the economic prosperity in Zhejiang province, with GDP growth of 5.5% and total import and export growth of 7.4% [2]. Brokerage Performance - The brokerage segment experienced a significant improvement in profitability in Q4 2024, with a 32% year-on-year increase in segment profit, driven by a more active market following favorable policy changes [3]. - The overall contribution of the brokerage business to net profit for 2024 is approximately 14% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted upwards by 2.6% and 0.6% to 5.71 billion RMB and 5.88 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 introduced at 6.20 billion RMB [4]. - The target price has been raised to 7.82 HKD, reflecting an increase in the valuation of the Hong Kong financial sector and a decrease in the risk-free interest rate [4][11]. Financial Metrics - The company is projected to achieve an EPS of 0.95 RMB in 2025, with a PE ratio of 5.99 and a PB ratio of 0.70 [5][20]. - The dividend yield is expected to remain stable at 6.75% for the next few years [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 68.73 HKD [7][24]. Core Insights - The company's 4Q revenue increased by 8.7% year-on-year to 35.38 billion RMB, aligning with consensus expectations of 35.7 billion RMB. The gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 54%, and adjusted net profit rose by 13.3% year-on-year to 4.7 billion RMB, also meeting expectations [1][19]. - For 2025, total revenue is expected to grow by 11% year-on-year, with advertising revenue and GMV growth rates slowing to 14% and 13%, respectively. Adjusted net profit is projected to reach 20.6 billion RMB [1][20]. - The company is anticipated to accelerate revenue growth starting in 2Q 2025, driven by AI commercialization opportunities in areas such as 2C subscriptions, 2B e-commerce advertising, and API calls, which could contribute an additional 400 to 800 million RMB in revenue [1][20]. Revenue and Business Segments - E-commerce and other revenue growth slowed to 14.1% year-on-year in 4Q, below expectations by 3.5%. The e-commerce GMV grew by 14.4% year-on-year, with the share of general merchandise e-commerce increasing to 30% [2]. - The number of active e-commerce merchants increased by over 25% year-on-year, with significant growth in GMV from small and medium-sized businesses driven by new policies [2]. - The AI capabilities of the company are expected to enhance advertising efficiency, with a 13.3% year-on-year increase in advertising revenue in 4Q, although this was 2% below expectations [3]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted upward by 0.6%, while the adjusted net profit forecast has been reduced by 12.6% to 20.6 billion RMB due to increased investments in AI [20][22]. - The report introduces a new valuation for 2027, projecting revenue and adjusted net profit of 163.8 billion RMB and 28.3 billion RMB, respectively [20]. - The target price of 68.73 HKD is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, with the advertising business valued at 53.36 HKD per share, the e-commerce business at 8.75 HKD, and the live streaming business at 4.87 HKD [24][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see continuous improvement in online music revenue and profit margins due to the growth in paid users and ARPPU [2] - The forecasted net profits for the years 2024 to 2026 are 6.644 billion, 7.645 billion, and 9.133 billion CNY respectively, with a target price set at 66.89 HKD [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates total revenue of 28.401 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [12] - The operating profit for 2024 is projected to be 7.349 billion CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 53.8% [12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 6.644 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 35.0% [12] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 42.3% in 2024, up from 35.3% in 2023 [12] - The net margin is projected to reach 23.4% in 2024, compared to 17.7% in 2023 [12] - The company’s P/E ratio for 2025 is estimated at 26.1 times [12] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2024, the online music service revenue is expected to be 58.3 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [9] - The social entertainment service revenue for Q4 2024 is projected at 16.3 billion CNY, a decrease of 13.0% year-on-year [9] - The total revenue for 2025 is anticipated to reach 310 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][21][22] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 42.76 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.71 billion RMB, up 4.6% year-on-year, exceeding previous expectations [1][9] - The core operating profit reached 6.23 billion RMB, reflecting an 18.7% year-on-year growth, indicating strong operational performance [1][9] - The company is focusing on brand incubation under the "Red Pomegranate Plan," with 11 active entrepreneurial projects, including new brands like "Yanjing Barbecue" and "Xiao Hai Hot Pot" [3][18][20] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the overall table turnover rate was 4.1 times per day, an increase of 0.3 times year-on-year, while the average customer spending was 97.5 RMB, a slight decrease of 1.6 RMB [2][11] - The gross profit margin improved to 62.1%, a 3.0 percentage point increase, marking a new high since the company's listing [3][15] - The core operating profit margin reached 14.6%, up 1.9 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 11.0%, up 0.1 percentage points, both representing the best performance since the company went public [3][15] Store Expansion and Market Presence - As of the end of 2024, the total number of stores was 1,368, with 1,355 self-operated and 13 franchised, reflecting a net increase of 25 stores compared to mid-2024 [2][12] - Same-store sales growth was 3.6%, with different growth rates across city tiers, indicating resilience in the core hot pot business [2][12] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 5.38 billion RMB and 6.12 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 6.93 billion RMB, indicating growth rates of 14.4%, 13.7%, and 13.3% [4][21] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16x, 14x, and 12x, respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation outlook [4][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with a target price of 559.92 HKD [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in advertising driven by AI, alongside robust performance in gaming during the Q1 Spring Festival period [2]. - The forecast for IFRS net profit for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 194.1 billion, 226.1 billion, and 250.1 billion RMB respectively, reflecting an upward revision due to increased advertising and other revenues [3]. - Non-IFRS net profit estimates for the same period are projected at 222.7 billion, 257.6 billion, and 285.6 billion RMB [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the expected operating revenue is 660.26 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.41% [4]. - The operating profit for 2024 is forecasted at 200.1 billion RMB, showing a significant increase of 30.97% year-on-year [4]. - The attributable net profit for 2024 is projected at 194.07 billion RMB, reflecting a substantial growth of 68.44% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 52.90% in 2024, up from 48.13% in 2023 [4]. - The net profit margin is anticipated to rise to 29.39% in 2024, compared to 18.92% in 2023 [4]. Revenue Breakdown - For Q4 2024, total revenue is reported at 172.4 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 11% [8]. - The revenue from value-added services is expected to reach 79 billion RMB, growing by 14% year-on-year [8]. - Gaming revenue for Q4 2024 is projected at 49.2 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% [8]. - Marketing services revenue is anticipated to be 35 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 17% [8]. - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue is expected to be 56.1 billion RMB, showing a 3% year-on-year growth [8]. Valuation Data - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, with a target price of 559.92 HKD based on various business segments [3][10]. - The estimated market capitalization for Tencent's H shares is approximately 4.62 trillion HKD [8]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of Tencent's business segments, including gaming, social advertising, and financial technology, with respective valuations [10][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has deepened its IP strategy and accelerated globalization, achieving a record high gross margin [1] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 16.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with adjusted net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 15.4% [5] - The company expects to maintain strong performance in the second half of 2025, driven by its IP strategy and expansion of overseas direct stores [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20.95 billion yuan, 25.51 billion yuan, and 30.97 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.3%, 21.7%, and 21.4% [5] - Net profit projections for the same years are 3.05 billion yuan, 3.72 billion yuan, and 4.57 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.5%, 22.1%, and 22.7% [5] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 44.9% in 2024 to 50.6% in 2027 [5] Market Performance - The company has optimized its store layout and enhanced IP penetration in China, with revenue from the mainland reaching 9.33 billion yuan, a 10.9% increase [5] - The overseas revenue reached 6.68 billion yuan, a 41.9% increase, with a significant increase in the number of direct stores [5] - The company is focusing on enhancing its online sales and expanding its product categories to drive growth [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 187.046 billion, an increase of RMB 9.692 billion or 5.5% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 5.960 billion, up RMB 0.278 billion or 4.9% year-on-year. The core profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 6.359 billion, an increase of RMB 0.215 billion or 3.5% year-on-year. The annual dividend was RMB 0.3158 per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 43% [1]. - The company's gas sales volume outperformed the industry, with a slight increase in gross margin compared to the first half of the year. The total natural gas sales volume reached 54.170 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. Retail gas volume was 32.757 billion cubic meters, up 8.1% year-on-year, while distribution and trading accounted for approximately 21.4 billion cubic meters, a rise of 12.9% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expanding its business layout into the central and western provinces, which have high growth potential and significant profit contributions. Retail gas volumes in the northwest and southwest regions grew by 12% and 19.2%, respectively [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 187.046 billion, with a net profit of RMB 5.960 billion and a core profit of RMB 6.359 billion for the year [1]. - The average procurement price for gas was RMB 2.37 per cubic meter, while the sales price was RMB 2.84 per cubic meter, resulting in a weighted average price difference of RMB 0.47 per cubic meter [2]. LNG Operations - The LNG receiving stations in Tangshan and Jiangsu had a gasification loading volume of 15.940 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year. The average load factor for the two stations was 87.6%, down 3 percentage points year-on-year. The operational efficiency of LNG plants improved, with 13 plants achieving profitability [2]. Exploration and Production - The exploration and production business faced significant impacts due to the expiration of oil field contracts. The company achieved an oil sales volume of 8.29 million barrels, a decrease of 0.92 million barrels or 10% year-on-year, with an average realized price of USD 66.7 per barrel [3]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to RMB 6.414 billion and RMB 7.011 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at RMB 7.656 billion. The EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be RMB 0.74, RMB 0.81, and RMB 0.88, respectively [4].

腾讯控股 00700.HK 公司研究 | 季报点评 AI 驱动广告高速增长，Q1 春节档游戏强劲 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 554,552 | 609,015 | 660,257 | 737,770 | 807,370 | | 同比增长 (%) | -1.21% | 9.82% | 8.41% | 11.74% | 9.43% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 100,017 | 152,784 | 200,097 | 229,061 | 257,041 | | 同比增长 (%) | -14.32% | 52.76% | 30.97% | 14.47% | 12.22% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 188,243 | 115,216 | 194,073 | 226,083 | 250,091 | | 同比增长 (%) | -16.27% | -38.79% | 68.44% | 16.49% | 10.62% | | 每股收益（元） | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of HKD 18.84 per share, corresponding to a PE valuation of 20x for 2025 [5][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of CNY 28.24 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 18.8%, and a net profit of CNY 1.27 billion, down 51.8% year-on-year. The second half of 2024 saw a revenue of CNY 13.82 billion, down 22.0%, and a net profit of CNY 240 million, down 83.6% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to an accelerated inventory clearance strategy [1][2]. - Looking ahead to 2025, the company is expected to benefit from product structure optimization and market share growth due to the effects of trade-in subsidies and new national standards [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company accelerated inventory clearance, leading to a decline in sales volume to 6.64 million units in the second half, a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year, with an average selling price of CNY 2,082, down 2.3% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit margin for the second half of 2024 was 1.7%, down 6.5 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin decrease of 4.7 percentage points due to lower selling prices [3]. Market Outlook - The company is focusing on optimizing its supply chain and expanding into overseas markets, with investments in core components like batteries and controllers. It plans to launch its first mass-produced sodium battery electric bicycle in January 2025 [3]. - The company is expanding its production scale in Southeast Asia and deepening its retail network, with factories in Indonesia and Vietnam and flagship stores in Thailand and Indonesia [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 37.56 billion, CNY 40.91 billion, and CNY 46.37 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of CNY 2.70 billion, CNY 2.93 billion, and CNY 3.38 billion for the same years [8][9]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 0.87, CNY 0.94, and CNY 1.08 respectively [8].