• 恒生指数和恒生科技指数的显著涨幅超过其他主要市场指数，为固收加基 金通过增加港股配置以提升收益弹性提供了机会。 • 固收加港股策略产品以纯债为基础，配置港股红利和科技龙头，构建攻守 兼备的投资组合，契合个人投资者需求，具有发展潜力。 • 截至 2024 年四季度末，固收加港股策略产品数量同比增长超 50%，规模增 长超 15%，在固收加基金整体规模下降的背景下逆势增长，市场份额显著 提升。 • 2024 年固收加港股策略基金收益中位数达 7.95%，在不同细分品类固收加 基金中表现最佳，且 2025 年初累计收益中位数超过全样本水平，显示出较 强的盈利能力。 • 固收加基金对港股资产配置比例显著提升，从 2024 年一季度末的 7.8%提 高到四季度的 11.3%，通过配置香港上市公司来补足传统周期与高科技板 块缺口。 • 固收加基金在港股持仓上侧重防御性，偏好传统周期、高股息标的和互联 网龙头，而主动权益基金更偏向成长性和科技领域，持仓更为分散。 • 2024 年四季度，固收加港股策略产品增持高分红资源品和低估值周期股， 并有限参与成长股反弹，同时减持腾讯幅度超过主动权益基金，体现其较 低的风险偏好。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the investment in CICC as favorable due to its current undervaluation and potential for growth in the upcoming IPO market and M&A activities [3][4]. Core Insights - CICC's H-shares have risen approximately 25% since the beginning of the year, yet the price-to-book ratio (PB) remains at 0.76, indicating a discount to net assets [3]. - The brokerage industry has a lower leverage ratio (4-5 times) compared to banks (over 10 times), suggesting lower operational risks and a more transparent balance sheet [3][4]. - The Hong Kong market is experiencing increased investment activity, with a projected 80% year-on-year increase in IPOs in 2025, which will positively impact CICC's performance [4][5]. - Anticipated supply-side reforms and M&A activities are expected to enhance operational efficiency among leading brokerages, including CICC [4][6]. - The domestic IPO market is expected to recover in 2025, with an estimated 150 IPOs and a total scale of around 1 trillion yuan, leading to a 23% increase in underwriting fees and a 3.2% revenue increase for CICC [5][6]. - New regulations will stabilize underwriting fees, supporting the recovery of investment banking revenues for CICC [5]. - The H-share market is expected to expand, with a projected 89% increase in IPOs in 2024, benefiting CICC, which has ranked first in H-share trading for five consecutive years [6]. - CICC's M&A business, which accounts for 33.4% of its revenue, is anticipated to grow further due to favorable regulatory changes [6][7]. Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - CICC is positioned as a left-side investment opportunity due to its low valuation and performance elasticity, benefiting from industry reforms [4]. IPO Market - The expected recovery in the domestic IPO market will enhance CICC's revenue and profit margins, with a projected 5% profit growth [5]. H-share Market and M&A - CICC is set to benefit significantly from the H-share market expansion and the growth of its M&A business, supported by new regulatory frameworks [6][7]. Fee Structure - The report notes that the fee structure for investment banking services is not standardized, with significant variations based on company qualifications, but new regulations are expected to provide a more stable income environment [9].

中金公司 红海复航不确定性增加，中国集运公司有望补涨 红海护航的不确定性对市场预期有何影响？ 红海护航的不确定性较高，从第二轮停火协议推进的曲折性以及胡塞武装组织 重新攻打以色列船舶等事件可以看出这一点。根据克拉克森的数据，截至 2 月 底，红海区域整体船舶和集装箱船舶通行量分别下降了 5 艘和 4 艘。红海不能 如期复航的概率在提升，因为胡塞武装组织态度才真正决定红海通行是否安全。 此外，从保险角度来看，需要联合战争险委员会将红海区域风险等级从当前高 风险地区下调，否则传动仍需面临较高保险成本。因此，我们认为红海复航会 面临很多不确定性，市场预期也会反复变化。 美国 301 调查可能带来哪些影响？ 20250312 摘要 Q&A 近期中国集运公司股价表现如何，与海外公司相比有何差异？ 自 1 月 19 日加沙停火协议生效以来，国内集运公司的股价普遍跑输于海外公司。 具体来看，海丰国际、中国远洋海控和东方海外的股价均出现个位数跌幅，而 马士基、ZIM 以及台湾和日韩的一些集运公司的股价则上涨了 10%到 20%。这种 • 红海护航不确定性增加，胡塞武装态度及保险成本制约复航，市场预期反 复。克拉克森数据显示， ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades ZTE Corporation (H/A) to Buy from Neutral with new price objectives of HK$32 for H shares and CNY45 for A shares [1][15][17]. Core Insights - ZTE's server business is expected to see robust expansion in 2024, driven by increased orders from Chinese telecom companies and cloud service providers (CSPs) [1][12][43]. - Despite potential near-term earnings pressure due to a soft carrier business, ZTE is positioned for a re-rating based on a positive outlook for China's Internet Data Centers (IDCs), share gain potential amid rising server demand, and its in-house CPU capabilities [1][12][15]. - The valuation of ZTE is supported by a re-rating of China IDC names, reflecting the market's growing confidence in server demand, particularly with the acceleration of AI applications [16][17]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating Changes - ZTE-H's price objective is raised to HK$32 from HK$21, and ZTE-A's price objective is lifted to CNY45 from CNY31 [3][17]. - The report reflects a change in earnings estimates for 2025-26, with a reduction of 12-17% due to margin pressures [17][18]. Financial Performance - ZTE's server sales nearly doubled year-on-year to CNY10 billion in 2024, representing an 8% mix, primarily due to breakthroughs with major CSPs [2][43]. - The company is expected to maintain robust growth into 2025-26, supported by strong capital expenditures from CSPs and a focus on data centers by Chinese telecoms [2][43]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that ZTE-H/ZTE-A trades at a discount compared to other Chinese server peers, with a current P/E of 13x for 2026E [1][32]. - The valuation gap between ZTE-A and ZTE-H has become volatile, suggesting that historical valuation trends may be more suitable for assessing ZTE-A's value [17][32].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategic overweight in Chinese stocks and gold, while recommending a lower allocation to commodities and overseas assets [2][5][13]. Core Insights - The correlation between Chinese stocks and bonds has turned negative, while the correlation in the U.S. has turned positive, reflecting differing inflation environments [1][3]. - Chinese stock volatility is expected to trend downward, whereas U.S. volatility may rise due to high inflation and interest rate policies [1][3]. - The decoupling of economic fundamentals has led to a decrease in correlation between Chinese and overseas assets, making Chinese assets attractive for risk diversification [1][4][5]. - The updated multi-factor model predicts that gold prices could rise to $3,000-$5,000 over the next decade, indicating a long-term bullish outlook despite short-term uncertainties [1][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw better-than-expected market performance due to lower-than-expected tariff increases and improved export diversification from China [1][8][9]. Summary by Sections Market Strategy - The report highlights three new asset allocation trends: the negative correlation of Chinese stocks and bonds, the positive correlation of U.S. stocks and bonds, and the decreasing correlation between Chinese and overseas assets [3][4]. Investment Implications - The strengthening negative correlation in China suggests that less bond allocation is needed to hedge stock risks, allowing for increased bond positions in portfolios [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing the allocation to Chinese stocks due to their cheap valuations and risk diversification benefits [5][7]. Gold Investment Perspective - The report maintains a positive stance on gold investment, having updated its multi-factor model to extend the analysis period and exclude U.S. Treasury yields, indicating a potential long-term price surge [6]. Chinese Stock Strategy - The report advocates for a strategic overweight in Chinese stocks, citing their cheap valuations and long-term growth potential in a low inflation and low interest rate environment [7]. Overseas Asset Strategy - The report advises a cautious approach to overseas assets, particularly U.S. stocks, due to their high valuation and the risk of mean reversion following significant past gains [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a potential range for the Hang Seng Index between 23,000 and 25,000 points, depending on market sentiment and earnings per share (EPS) realization [1][5]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance early in the year, primarily driven by small-cap stocks and market liquidity, but foreign long-term capital has not significantly flowed in yet [1][2][3]. - The divergence in performance between the US and Hong Kong stock markets is attributed to factors such as tariffs, inflation, and the development of AI, which have led to different re-evaluations of Chinese assets [1][6]. - The development of AI is significantly impacting both US and Chinese capital markets, with US AI companies facing tariff and inflation pressures, while AI is driving growth in China's technology sector [1][7][8]. - The macroeconomic environment in China is facing leverage issues, necessitating a focus on structural policies rather than aggregate policies, with an emphasis on lowering costs and improving return expectations [4][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a rapid increase post-Chinese New Year, driven by technology sentiment, particularly in software services [2]. - Less than 20% of the companies in the Hang Seng Index have outperformed the index itself, highlighting a structural characteristic of the market [2]. Capital Flows - Current data indicates that foreign long-term capital has not significantly entered the Hong Kong market, with trading funds dominating the market dynamics [3]. Economic Predictions - Static calculations suggest that if market sentiment returns to historical highs, the Hang Seng Index could reach between 23,000 and 25,000 points, contingent on EPS realization [5]. - The report emphasizes that the current range of 23,000 to 24,000 points already reflects much of the first phase of Chinese asset re-evaluation [5]. US-China Market Dynamics - The contrasting performance of US and Hong Kong markets is influenced by tariffs, inflation, and AI developments, leading to different asset re-evaluation outcomes [6]. - The report notes that the US economy is experiencing a cyclical recovery, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year [10][14]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends exploring investment opportunities across four dimensions: dividends, overseas expansion, new consumption, and technology [4][18]. - It suggests a structural adjustment approach rather than aggressive leverage, with a focus on individual stock opportunities in the context of broader market trends [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is currently undervalued, particularly in sectors such as retail, media entertainment, and consumer services, with a static valuation at historical lows [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent market rebound is primarily driven by risk premiums and optimistic expectations stemming from the AI industry's impact on technology sector revaluation [1][3]. - It notes a trend of global capital flow shifting towards Asia, benefiting Hong Kong stocks from southbound capital inflows and enhanced technology sector trends [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions and policy changes for the sustainability of this trend in the long term [4]. Summary by Sections Market Valuation - The static valuation of the Hong Kong market is relatively low, with the Hang Seng Index at the 61st percentile historically, while the Hang Seng Technology Index is around 20 times earnings, significantly lower than its peak in 2021 [2][7]. - The report suggests that while static valuations are low, dynamic valuations appear elevated, indicating a potential for emotional market overextension [7]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has been significantly influenced by AI narratives and capital sources, with southbound capital inflows leading to a rapid decline in AH premiums, indicating a strong impact on valuation and pricing power [5][6]. - The report identifies that the current market sentiment is relatively exuberant, with the Hang Seng Index's equity risk premium at approximately 5.7%, close to historical lows since 2021 [3][5]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy focusing on technology sector trends while incorporating stable dividend returns [10]. - It suggests a bottom-up stock selection approach, targeting new consumption and overseas markets to optimize investment outcomes [10]. Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report anticipates a significant increase in fiscal debt issuance in 2025, with a focus on new growth drivers and livelihood sectors, which is expected to enhance monetary circulation and reduce risk premiums [16][19]. - It highlights that the fiscal execution pace in 2025 is expected to be front-loaded, with a proactive approach to address potential economic challenges [21]. Global Capital Flows - The report discusses the "East rises, West falls" trend in global capital flows, indicating that Hong Kong and European markets are performing well while U.S. markets remain weak [11][12]. - It notes that this trend is driven by factors such as AI developments, fiscal policies, and geopolitical relationships, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics [11][12]. Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is highlighted as having absolute valuations that remain attractive, although profitability differences among companies should be considered [7][8]. - The report suggests that if technology stocks return to their 2021 highs, the Hang Seng Index could reach approximately 25,000 points, although this does not guarantee a correction or inability to break through that level [7].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the commodity market, suggesting a mixed investment strategy with a focus on low volatility commodities [2][3][10]. Core Insights - The commodity market has shown significant changes recently, with a notable shift from macro-driven trends to a focus on fundamental pricing mechanisms [3][6]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical factors, such as U.S. tariffs and Trump's policies, on various commodity sectors, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of these influences [4][5][12]. - Supply risks are evolving from a binary to a more complex three-dimensional framework, incorporating spatial, temporal, and geopolitical dimensions [7][9]. - The report suggests that while some commodities may face supply constraints, others may not see significant price movements due to balanced supply and demand dynamics [10][11]. Summary by Sections Commodity Market Overview - The correlation index among commodities has decreased, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2]. - The market is transitioning from a macro-driven environment to one where fundamental factors play a more significant role in pricing [3][6]. Geopolitical Influences - U.S. tariff policies are causing disruptions in the commodity market, particularly affecting aluminum and steel prices [4][5]. - The report discusses the potential impacts of Trump's policies on oil prices, highlighting the complexity of these influences [4][12]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the commodity market is moving towards a state of oversupply, with a potential return to a more balanced state by 2025 [6][10]. - Supply risks are now viewed through a three-dimensional lens, considering spatial, temporal, and geopolitical factors [7][9]. Specific Commodity Insights - Oil prices are expected to face upward pressure due to supply constraints, particularly in the context of OPEC's production limits [10][12]. - The aluminum sector may experience cost increases due to tariff impacts, while the steel market is likely to see price increases domestically [4][5]. - Agricultural commodities, particularly soybeans, are expected to remain under pressure from supply dynamics, with a focus on South American production [18].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong growth potential in the manufacturing sector driven by advancements in AI and robotics, particularly in the context of electric vehicles (EV) and information and communication technology (ICT) [2][3]. Core Insights - The manufacturing industry is undergoing significant transformation with the integration of AI and robotics, which is expected to drive substantial growth over the next 10 to 20 years [2][3]. - The company aims to evolve from a traditional manufacturing service provider to a platform solution provider, focusing on smart manufacturing, smart EV, and smart city applications [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of digital transformation and automation in enhancing production efficiency, quality, and cost management [4][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The manufacturing sector is critical for global economies, with a focus on leveraging AI and robotics to improve product quality and efficiency [1][2]. - The company has established a global presence with operations in 24 countries and approximately 205 facilities, indicating a robust operational footprint [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has adopted a "3+3" strategy, focusing on new industries such as EV, digital healthcare, and robotics, while also emphasizing new technologies like AI semiconductors and next-generation communications [3][4]. - The goal is to integrate new industries and technologies to enhance competitiveness and drive growth [3]. Technological Advancements - The report highlights the role of AI in transforming manufacturing processes, including the development of AI-driven factories that enhance production efficiency and decision-making [4][6]. - The integration of AI and machine learning is expected to lead to self-learning systems that continuously optimize manufacturing processes [5][8]. Automation and Robotics - The company is investing in advanced robotics to improve flexibility and efficiency in manufacturing, with a focus on collaborative and adaptable robotic systems [10][12]. - The report discusses the potential of dual-arm robots and other advanced automation technologies to address complex manufacturing tasks that were previously reliant on skilled labor [12][13]. Sustainability and Recognition - The company is committed to sustainable manufacturing practices, focusing on energy management and the use of renewable resources [13][14]. - The report notes that the company has received international recognition for its contributions to the electronics manufacturing industry and its commitment to ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) standards [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious but optimistic outlook for the A-share market in 2024, indicating a potential for structural opportunities to increase compared to 2023 [1][2] Core Views - The report identifies three main perspectives on the A-share market: 1. The market is expected to stabilize, avoiding extremes of caution or exuberance seen in previous years [1] 2. Market fluctuations are anticipated to be more frequent but with smaller amplitudes, with a better environment expected in the second half of the year [2] 3. The importance of bottom-up stock selection is expected to rise, contrasting with the previous year's focus on top-down macro strategies [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The report posits that the significant market bottom occurred in September of the previous year, with limited chances of returning to that level in the next 1-2 years [1] - It anticipates a return to normal risk preferences, with structural opportunities likely to increase in 2024 [1] Market Rhythm - The report notes that the market's rhythm in the previous year was characterized by significant ups and downs, while this year is expected to have quicker changes with smaller fluctuations [2] - The second half of the year is projected to have a better market environment compared to the first half [2] Asset Allocation - The report emphasizes a shift from top-down macro strategies to bottom-up stock selection, indicating that last year's major events have already occurred, leading to a focus on ongoing trends rather than new turning points [3] - It highlights three key investment themes for the year: 1. Not all growth stocks are worth buying, with a focus on technology growth in the first half and renewable energy manufacturing in the second half [4][11] 2. Some resilient external demand should still be considered [11] 3. Dividend assets are viewed as offering structural opportunities rather than a broad trend [12] Sector Performance - The report indicates that the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sector has seen significant trading volume, accounting for approximately 46% of the A-share market recently [6] - It draws parallels to the market conditions of 2013, where the overall index remained flat while certain sectors, like the ChiNext, experienced substantial growth [6][10] Policy Support - The report suggests that policy support will continue to be a trend, with themes such as mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, and debt repayment expected to remain relevant [13]