交银国际研究 公司更新 | 新能源 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 6.23 | 港元 | 8.00 | +28.4% | | | 龙源电力 (916 HK) | | | | | | 2024 年风电电价优于预期，订出 3 年派息政策应受投资者欢迎 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 8.29 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 5.31 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 20,670.39 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 69.63 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (3.26) | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 6.34 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 郑民康 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 916 HK 恒生指数 wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 18 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][9][21] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in performance in 2023, with a significant drop in net profit and profit margins, but future revenue recognition is expected to be strong [9] - The company has a robust cash position and is focusing on land acquisition in key cities, with a sales target increase for 2025 [9] - The company is well-positioned with a strong land bank and low financing costs, making its current valuation attractive compared to peers [9] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 80,222 million - 2024: 86,401 million (10.8% YoY growth) - 2025E: 90,807 million (5.1% YoY growth) - 2026E: 98,344 million (8.3% YoY growth) - 2027E: 106,310 million (8.1% YoY growth) [8][10] - Net profit forecasts indicate a significant decline in 2024, with a recovery expected in subsequent years: - 2023: 3,185 million - 2024: 1,040 million (-67.3% YoY) - 2025E: 1,095 million (5.3% YoY growth) - 2026E: 1,319 million (20.4% YoY growth) - 2027E: 1,582 million (20.0% YoY growth) [8][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be: - 2023: 0.85 - 2024: 0.26 - 2025E: 0.27 - 2026E: 0.33 - 2027E: 0.39 [8][10] Company Overview - The company reported a total cash position of 500.5 billion in 2024, with a net debt ratio of 51.7% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.1 times, indicating a strong liquidity position [9] - The company has a land bank of 1,971 million square meters as of the end of 2024, with a focus on first and second-tier cities [9] - The company’s average financing cost is reported at 3.49%, reflecting a decrease of 33 basis points year-on-year [9]

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 首席消费分析师 richard_lin@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6433 桑若楠，CFA 消费分析师 serena_sang@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6439 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | 评级 | | | --- | --- | | 目标价（港元） | 6.65 | | 潜在升幅/降幅 | +13.3% | | 股息率 | 6.0% | | 预期总回报 | +19.3% | | 目前股价（港元） | 5.87 | | 52 周内股价区间（港元） | 3.39-7.38 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 53,225 | | 近 3月日均成交额（百万港元） | 189.5 | | 注：截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日收盘价 | | 市场预期区间 中国飞鹤（6186.HK）：持续加大品牌 投入，引领行业整合 飞鹤 2H24 净利润不及市场预期，主要是由于功能营养产品（包括成 人奶粉）短期清理库存拖累整体毛利率的表现。然而，公司婴配粉业 务 2H24 收入增速符合预期，且利润率依然保持稳健。管理层表示有 信心 2025 年收入增速快于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 50.85 billion, 56.38 billion, and 60.58 billion respectively, indicating significant growth potential [6][8]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 886.75 billion in 2024, a decrease of 10.09% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.05 billion, down 97.83% [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.509 per share, totaling 19.94 billion, with a payout ratio of 45% [2]. - The decline in revenue was primarily due to impairment losses related to Bellamy and the joint venture Modern Dairy, which impacted profits significantly [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, cheese, and other businesses was 730.66 billion, 51.75 billion, 33.20 billion, 43.20 billion, and 27.94 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -10.97%, -14.12%, -12.66%, -0.86%, and +17.99% [3]. - The second half of 2024 showed improvements with liquid milk and milk powder revenue declines narrowing, while ice cream and cheese businesses experienced growth [3]. Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 39.57%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to lower raw milk prices [4]. - The net profit margin was 0.12%, a decrease of 4.76 percentage points, primarily due to significant impairment losses [4]. Strategic Positioning - The company is leveraging its channel advantages and rapidly iterating new products to meet diverse consumer needs, positioning itself for recovery in the liquid milk segment [5]. - The company is expected to further increase its market share in the medium to long term due to its leading channel advantages and swift product innovation [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 decreased by 7.66% to 2.79 billion, while adjusted net profit fell by 18.56% to 363 million, impacted by the postponement of civil service exams and intensified industry competition [1] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong industry demand and the company's focus on AI-driven efficiency improvements [5] Revenue and Profitability - The training business generated revenue of 2.34 billion in 2024, down 6.9% year-on-year, with online learning products and large classes facing revenue declines due to competition from low-cost courses [2] - The overall gross margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 52.5%, with training services gross margin rising by 0.6 percentage points to 56.0% [4] - The adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 is projected to be 370 million, 410 million, and 460 million respectively, reflecting growth rates of 3%, 10%, and 11% [5][6] AI Development and Product Offering - The company has expanded its AI product matrix, launching several AI-driven educational tools, including "Chalk AI Teacher" and "AI Teacher Interview Feedback," enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [3] - The company plans to increase AI R&D investment by 30% annually and collaborate with top institutions to develop educational AI models [3] Market Position and Growth Potential - The company benefits from a robust online and offline product offering, with a registered user base of 72.74 million and an average monthly active user count of 9.1 million [2] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for civil service and skills examination training, maintaining a high level of contract liabilities at approximately 140 million [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant revenue growth of 51.8% in 2024, with product revenue increasing by 43.6%, primarily driven by strong sales of its core product, Sintilimab, and the commercialization of new products [3][4]. - The company reported a narrowed net loss of 0.95 billion yuan, a 90.79% improvement year-on-year, and achieved Non-IFRS net profit of 0.33 billion yuan, marking a milestone in profitability [3][4]. - The product portfolio expanded to 15 commercialized products, including three new lung cancer targeted therapies and the world's first non-covalent BTK inhibitor [3][4]. - The company is accelerating its global expansion in the oncology field, with several clinical trials underway for innovative therapies [3][4]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for the company to reach 108.18 billion yuan in 2025, 143.06 billion yuan in 2026, and 200.22 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.87 billion yuan, 15.17 billion yuan, and 41.06 billion yuan respectively [4][6]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 94.22 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 84.0% and a sales expense ratio of 46.1% [3][4]. - Research and development expenses amounted to 26.81 billion yuan, with cash reserves of 102.21 billion yuan [3][4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -0.06 yuan in 2024 to 2.51 yuan in 2027 [4][6]. - The company's estimated market value range is between 929.56 billion yuan and 1,232.13 billion yuan, translating to approximately 1,007.41 billion to 1,335.31 billion Hong Kong dollars [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% over the next six months [4][17]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.09 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 53.9%. The adjusted EBITDA reached 960 million yuan, up 42.8% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 480 million yuan, a decrease of 6.3% due to a one-time investment gain in 2023 [1][2]. - The social business segment saw a revenue of 4.63 billion yuan in 2024, growing 58.1% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from late-stage products, with SUGO revenue increasing over 200% and TopTop revenue over 100% [2]. - The company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in revenue from late-stage products and continue investing in these areas, although the sales expense ratio may decrease in 2025, leading to improved product margins [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 6.51 billion yuan, 7.90 billion yuan, and 9.18 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 926 million yuan, 1.17 billion yuan, and 1.40 billion yuan [3]. - The company's P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 8.8, 7.0, and 5.8, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3][4]. - The company reported a return on equity (ROE) of 31.2% in 2024, with expectations of 37.9% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability [1][3].

丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨 TCL 电子（1070.HK） [Table_Title] 产品结构持续改善，收入业绩实现高增 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2024 年实现营业收入 993.22 亿港元，同比增长 25.7%，实现经调整归母净利润 16.06 亿 港元，同比增长 100.1%。公司 2024 年下半年实现营业收入 538.28 亿港元，同比增长 22.1%， 实现经调整归母净利润 9.52亿港元，同比增长 77.0%。董事会建议派发末期股息每股现金 0.318 港元，派息率达经调整归母净利润的约 50.0%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 TCL 电子（1070.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 产品结构持续改善，收入业绩实现高增 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司披露年报：公司 2024 年实现营业收入 993.22 亿港元，同比增长 25.7%， ...

| 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 | | | | liujm@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 秦一方 S0350523120001 | | | | qinyf@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 黄诗汶 S0350124040004 | | | | huangsw01@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 魔芋品类势能向上，全年收入提速 ——卫龙美味（09985）2024 年报点评报告 最近一年走势 2025 年 04 月 01 日 公司研究 评级：增持(首次覆盖) | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2025/03/31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 卫龙美味 | 57.2% | 111.4% | 190.6% | | 恒生指数 | 0.8% | 15.3% | 39.8% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/03/31 | | 当前价格（港元） | | | 15.22 | | 周 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase-S (09999.HK) [1] Core Views - The strong recovery in PC gaming has led to a positive turnaround in gaming revenue, with the game "Marvel Duel" exceeding expectations [2][22] - The company is expected to continue its growth in gaming revenue in Q1, driven by new product launches [3][23] - The valuation model suggests a target price range of HKD 175-207 for 2025, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the full year, gaming and related services generated revenue of CNY 836 billion, a year-over-year increase of 2.5%, with PC game revenue at CNY 219.46 billion (up 16.56%) and mobile game revenue at CNY 584.96 billion (up 2.7%) [2][22] - In Q4, gaming and related services revenue reached CNY 212 billion (up 1.54% year-over-year), with online gaming revenue at CNY 205.41 billion (up 5.12%) [2][22] - The gross margin for the gaming business in Q4 was 66.70%, reflecting a slight decrease [2][22] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is CNY 311.99 billion, CNY 339.94 billion, and CNY 361.22 billion, respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 15.0 for 2025, 13.8 for 2026, and 13.0 for 2027 [4] - The report highlights the importance of new product launches for future revenue growth, with several titles in the pipeline [3][23] Key Financial Metrics - Main revenue for 2024 is projected at CNY 105,295 million, with a year-over-year growth rate of 1.8% [5] - Net profit for 2024 is estimated at CNY 29,698 million, with a growth rate of 1.0% [5] - The report indicates a stable financial position with a debt-to-asset ratio of 27.30% [6]