理想汽车（LI.O/2015.HK） 更新报告 买入 2025 年 6 月 11 日 Q1 毛利率优于预期，纯电产品即将发布 李京霖 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 唐伊莲 852-25321539 Alice.tang@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要资料 | 行业 | 新能源汽车 | | --- | --- | | 股价 | 30.15 美元/118 港元 | | 目标价 | 37.86 美元/140.27 港元 | | | (26%/19%) | | 股票代码 | LI.O/2015.HK | | 已发行股本 | 10.13 亿股 | | 总市值 | 323 亿美元 | | 52 周高/低 | 33.12 美元/17.44 美元 | | 每股净资产 | 33.54 元 | | 主要股东 | Amp Lee Ltd. 16.77% | | | DeutscheBankAktiengesel | | | lschaft 16.58% | | | InspiredElite 12.17% | | | | 来源：公司资料，第一上海预测 来源 ...

理想汽車（LI.O/2015.HK） 更新報告 買入 2025 年 6 月 11 日 Q1 毛利率優於預期，純電產品即將發佈 李京霖 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 唐伊蓮 852-25321539 Alice.tang@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要資料 公司 25 年 Q1 業績：公司 25 Q1 營收 259 億元，同比增長 1.1%， 其中車輛銷售收入 247 億元，同比增長 1.8%，毛利率為 20.5%，同 比-0.1pct，實現淨利潤 6.5 億元，同比增長 9.4%。車輛毛利率為 19.8%，同比增長 0.5pct，優於預期。Q1 汽車總交付量為 9.3 萬 台，同比增長15.5%；受到節假日以及產品換代影響，公司25Q1汽 車銷量承壓。 MEGA 銷量回暖，看好下半年純電車型：2025 年為公司純電產 品發佈大年，純電產品成敗將影響公司營收，公司於 Q2 相繼發佈 理想 MEGA Home 家庭特別版、理想 MEGA Ultra 智慧煥新版和理想 L 系列智慧煥新版。其中，純電產品 MEGA 新發佈後訂單火爆，預 計後 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of ★★★★☆ to the company based on fundamental factors and valuation [4] Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic seasoning industry, with a market share of 4.8% in the mainland seasoning market, which is expected to reach RMB 498.1 billion by 2024 [2][3] - The company ranks fifth globally in the seasoning market, holding a 1.1% market share in a market projected to reach RMB 2,143.8 billion by 2024 [2] - The company has a strong product matrix with seven product lines generating over RMB 1 billion in annual revenue, the highest in the domestic seasoning industry [3] - The domestic seasoning market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.0%, reaching RMB 699.8 billion by 2029, indicating significant growth opportunities [3] Summary by Sections Industry Position - The company has maintained its position as the largest seasoning enterprise in the mainland for 28 consecutive years, with soy sauce and oyster sauce products leading in sales [2] - The company is recognized as a popular brand in the domestic consumer market, with over 80% household penetration [2] Product Portfolio - The company offers a comprehensive product range, including soy sauce, oyster sauce, seasoning sauces, vinegar, cooking wine, and various specialty condiments, with over 1,450 SKUs available [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the fiscal years ending December 31 is projected as follows: RMB 256.09 billion in 2022, RMB 245.59 billion in 2023, and RMB 269.01 billion in 2024 [4] - Profit figures are expected to be RMB 62.03 billion in 2022, RMB 56.42 billion in 2023, and RMB 63.56 billion in 2024 [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a significant increase in free cash flow by 2025, with a strong potential for dividend growth. The performance of its cement business is stabilizing, and the value of its equity is anticipated to be reassessed [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Cash Flow Turning Positive, High Dividend Potential - The company focuses on waste-to-energy projects and indirectly holds a 17.8% stake in Conch Cement. As of the end of 2024, the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 2.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.03% year-on-year [8][14]. - Operating cash flow is expected to increase to 2.02 billion yuan in 2024, with capital expenditures decreasing significantly from 6.91 billion yuan in 2021 to 2.83 billion yuan in 2024 [8][31]. - The dividend payout for 2024 is projected at 657 million yuan, a 100% increase, with a dividend ratio of 32.51% [8][37]. 2. Strong Cost of Capital & Operational Efficiency, Profitable Small-scale Projects - The company has a financing cost of 2.51%, the lowest in its industry, and a capacity utilization rate of 111%, ranking second among peers [8][52]. - The company’s waste-to-energy projects are primarily located in small to medium-sized cities, with a focus on smaller-scale projects that have proven to be profitable [8][41]. 3. Cement Business Stabilizing, Equity Value Awaiting Reassessment - The cement business is showing signs of stabilization, with a projected net profit of 800 million yuan in 2025, leading to a valuation of 6.4 billion yuan based on a PE ratio of 8 [8][14]. - The current market value of the company is 15.4 billion yuan, indicating a significant discount on the value of its stake in Conch Cement, which is estimated at 17.2 billion yuan [8][14]. 4. Energy Efficiency Improvements and Revenue Growth - The company’s average electricity generation per ton of waste processed has increased to 279 kWh/ton, with a compound annual growth rate of 3% from 2018 to 2024 [8][62]. - The external steam supply has surged by 561% in 2024, indicating substantial potential for revenue growth through heat supply [8][63].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage [3][8][10]. Core Views - China Resources Beverage, as a leading bottled water company, benefits from both revenue and profit growth. The company is expected to enjoy the industry's penetration rate increase and has made initial progress in its beverage business with the "Zhiben Qingrun" chrysanthemum tea series. The company is projected to improve its profitability through various cost-reduction strategies [3][8][29]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Resources Beverage is a subsidiary of China Resources Group, focusing on bottled water and beverage businesses. Its core brand "Yibao" is a leading bottled water brand in China, with a market share of 18.4% in 2023 [5][15]. Bottled Water Business - The bottled water market in China has grown from 152.6 billion yuan in 2018 to 215 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 7.1%. The company aims to increase its self-production rate from 32% in 2023 to over 60% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which is expected to significantly enhance profitability [6][8][29]. Beverage Business - The company has been exploring the beverage sector since 2011, launching various products. The "Zhiben Qingrun" series has gained a market share of 38.5% in 2023. The company aims to improve channel efficiency and reduce sales expenses through continuous product launches and increased distribution [7][8][29]. Financial Forecast and Investment Advice - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 140.7 billion yuan, 150.6 billion yuan, and 161.4 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Corresponding net profits are projected to be 19.2 billion yuan, 22.4 billion yuan, and 26.1 billion yuan, with EPS of 0.8, 0.93, and 1.09 yuan, respectively [8][29].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in cash flow, with a turning point towards positive free cash flow anticipated in 2025. The potential for dividend increases is substantial, driven by reduced capital expenditures and stable operational cash flow [8][14]. - The company's main business, focused on waste-to-energy operations, is projected to lead profit growth, while the performance of its cement business is stabilizing, indicating a potential revaluation of equity value [8][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Cash Flow and Dividend Potential - The company has a strong focus on waste incineration power generation and indirectly holds a 17.8% stake in Conch Cement. As of the end of 2024, the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 2.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.03% year-on-year [8][14]. - Operating cash flow has increased to 2.02 billion yuan in 2024, with capital expenditures decreasing significantly from a peak of 6.91 billion yuan in 2021 to 2.83 billion yuan in 2024 [8][14]. - The dividend payout for 2024 is expected to be 657 million yuan, representing a 100% increase, with a dividend ratio of 32.51% [8][14]. 2. Cost of Capital and Operational Efficiency - The company has a competitive edge with a financing cost of 2.51%, the lowest in its industry, and a high capacity utilization rate of 111% in 2024 [8][14]. - The company’s waste treatment operations have a gross profit margin of 47.38%, aligning with industry averages, and the average return on equity (ROE) for its main business is 7.92%, slightly above the industry average [8][14]. 3. Cement Business Performance - The cement business is stabilizing, with a projected net profit of 800 million yuan in 2025, and the equity value of the cement stake is expected to be reassessed as performance improves [8][14]. - The report indicates that the current market valuation of the company does not fully reflect the value of its stake in Conch Cement, which is estimated to be significantly undervalued [8][14]. 4. Future Profitability and Growth - The company anticipates a net profit of 2.18 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 8%, and a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 7.06 [1][8]. - The report highlights the potential for significant dividend increases in 2025 and 2026, with projected dividend yields of 5.8% and 10.6%, respectively [8][14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a reasonable valuation range of HKD 96.40 - 99.90, indicating a potential upside of 30%-35% from the current price of HKD 73.45 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the livestock industry in Southwest China, focusing on pig and yellow chicken farming, with a complete industry chain from feed production to breeding, farming, and sales [2][13]. - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a pig output of 8.78 million heads, a 24% year-on-year increase, ranking sixth nationally, while yellow chicken output is projected at 88.12 million heads, a slight decrease of 0.7%, ranking third nationally [2][13]. - The company is expanding its slaughtering and food processing projects, aiming for an annual slaughter volume of over 3 million pigs, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [2][13]. Company Overview - The company has established a unique "company + family farm" breeding model, allowing farmers to raise breeding pigs directly, which leads to a lighter asset structure and more stable cooperation with farmers [3][26]. - The management team has a strong strategic vision, focusing on the core breeding segment, and has built a breeding group of nearly 15,000 heads by the end of 2024, capable of supporting the production of over 1.17 million breeding sows [3][27]. Industry Analysis - The report is optimistic about the continuation of favorable conditions in the livestock industry, emphasizing the importance of low-cost enterprises gaining market share [2][57]. - The pig industry is expected to maintain price stability due to insufficient expansion willingness, while the yellow chicken sector is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in domestic consumption [2][78]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of HKD 22.463 billion in 2024, a 39% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of HKD 3.297 billion, marking a significant turnaround from a loss in 2023 [5][30]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at HKD 8.87, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of approximately 7.6x, significantly lower than the industry average of 15.4x, indicating potential for valuation recovery [4][5].

上 市 公 司 交通运输 2025 年 06 月 10 日 德翔海运 (02510) ——大亚洲区域领先玩家，兼具周期和成长 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 10 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 7.52 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8780.13 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 8.00/3.80 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 119.22 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,665.03 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0925 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -7% 193% HSCEI 德翔海运 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 ⚫ 风险关注：全球宏观经济衰退；关税政策升级；红海复航；新造船订单大量释放 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万美元） | 875 | 1,340 | 1351 | 1299 | 1539 | | 同比增长 ...

计算机/软件开发 美图公司（01357.HK） 2025 年 06 月 10 日 投资评级：买入（首次） | 日期 | 2025/6/10 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 7.420 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 7.500/2.070 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 338.81 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 338.81 | | 总股本(亿股) | 45.66 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 45.66 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 102.28 | 股价走势图 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 美图公司 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 视觉经济领跑者，AIGC 驱动商业化加速 ——港股公司首次覆盖报告 | 张可（分析师） | 荀月（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhangke1@kysec.cn | xunyue@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523070001 | 证书编号：S0790524110001 | xunyue@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790 ...

港股研究丨公司深度丨华润饮料（2460.HK） [Table_Title] 华润饮料深度报告：清润至本，方兴未艾 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 华润饮料作为头部包装水企业具备收入端、利润端双重逻辑。从收入端看，公司作为包装水龙 头优先享受行业渗透率提升红利，同时公司积极探索饮料业务，"至本清润"菊花茶已取得初步 成果，未来第二曲线可期。从利润端看，公司通过提高自产率、降低代工费、优化生产工艺多 种方式降低包装水生产成本，饮料业务的增长也将摊薄销售费用，公司盈利能力具备较大提升 空间。我们预计 2025/2026/2027 年公司 EPS 为 0.8/0.93/1.09 元，对应 PE 为 15X/13X/11X， 首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 冯萱 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490524060001 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 盈利预测与投资 ...