| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------|-------------------------------|-------------------| | | 快手 3Q24 点评：业绩符合预期，关注电 \n商多场域协同 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/交通运输 证券研究报告 Yuejiang Luo vi.luo@htisec.com Nan Yu nan.yu@htisec.com 京东物流（2618） 2024-11-25 [Table_InvestInfo] 京东物流：24Q3 降本持续超预期，单季度 利润率创历史新高 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 24Q3，公司录得营业收入 444 亿元/+6.6%，Non-IFRS 净利润为 26 亿元/+205.1%， 其 Non-IFRS 净利率为 5.8%，较 2023 年 2.0%的净利率提升 3.8 个百分点。 收入：24Q3，公司一体化供应链业务收入为 207 亿元/+5.4%，收入增长主要因为 ： 1）来自京东集团的收入增加；2）受外部一体化供应链客户的收入增加带动，其 来源于外部一体化供应链客户数量的同比增加。24Q3，外部一体化供应链客户数 达到 59286 名，同比增长近 9%，客均收入达到 13.3 万元。24Q3，公司其他客户收 入为 237 亿元/+7.6%，主要受快递快运业务量增加所带动。 毛利率：公司 24Q3 营业成本为 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 61.62 [1] Core Views - The company achieved its DAU target of 400 million, with DAU increasing by 5.4% YoY to 408 million and MAU growing by 4.3% YoY to 714 million in 3Q24 [1] - User engagement improved, with daily average time spent per user increasing by 1.8% YoY to 132 minutes, and total user time spent growing by 7.3% YoY [1] - Advertising revenue grew by 20.0% YoY to RMB 17.6 billion, accounting for 56.6% of total revenue, with significant growth in external loop advertising, particularly in short drama marketing [1] - E-commerce GMV increased by 15.1% YoY to RMB 334.2 billion, with monthly paying users (MPU) reaching 133 million, up 10.8% YoY [1] - Live streaming revenue declined by 3.9% YoY to RMB 9.3 billion, better than expected, with the number of signed agencies and hosts increasing by over 40% and 60% YoY, respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit for 3Q24 reached RMB 3.95 billion, with a gross margin of 54.3%, up 2.6 percentage points YoY [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow by 12.1% YoY in 2024E, reaching RMB 127.2 billion, with a gross margin of 54.7% [6] - Adjusted net profit for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 17.55 billion, with a net margin of 13.8% [6] - The company is valued at 14x PE for 2024E, with a target valuation of RMB 245.7 billion (HKD 265.8 billion) [6][10] Operational Highlights - The company leveraged its position as the official broadcaster for the 2024 Paris Olympics, with related content exposure reaching 310.6 billion views and 640 million users engaging with Olympic content [1] - Search functionality saw significant growth, with MAU exceeding 500 million and daily searches increasing by 20% YoY to over 700 million, peaking at over 800 million searches per day [1] - E-commerce initiatives, including the "818" promotion, saw GMV grow by over 24% YoY, with short video-driven GMV increasing by over 40% YoY [1]

Investment Rating - Maintain OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of HK$41.49 [1][2] - Current price is HK$27.30, indicating a significant upside potential [2] Core Views - Steady revenue growth in 24Q3 with revenue reaching CNY 13.30 billion (+14.8%) and net profit of CNY 930 million (+212.2%) [7] - Adjusted net profit margin improved to 10.0% (+1.8 percentage points) in 24Q3 [7] - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue grew by 7.6% to CNY 41.65 billion, with net profit increasing by 59.4% to CNY 2.97 billion [8] - The company is expanding its online medical insurance settlement services, covering 12 cities and connecting with 2,000 designated retail pharmacies [8] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E and 2025E is projected to be CNY 57.40 billion and CNY 64.00 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.2% and 11.5% respectively [9] - Adjusted net profit for 2024E and 2025E is expected to be CNY 4.34 billion and CNY 4.71 billion, with growth rates of 5.0% and 8.6% respectively [9] - Gross profit margin is forecasted to increase from 22.2% in 2023A to 24.0% in 2025E [6] Valuation - DCF valuation estimates the company's equity value at HKD 132.31 billion, corresponding to a share price of HKD 41.49 per share [9] - The valuation is based on a WACC of 8.4% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [9] Operational Highlights - The company has launched over 100 at-home testing services and 27 home care services, covering 14 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [8] - The company is benefiting from government subsidies for elderly-friendly products, which partially offset the impact of stricter regulations on certain medical devices [9] Market Performance - The stock has shown significant volatility over the past year, with a 12-month absolute return of -30.5% [4] - Relative to the MSCI China index, the stock underperformed by 38.4% over the past 12 months [4]

%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨快手-W（1024.HK） [Table_Title] 短剧营销等外循环广告推动在线营销收入持续 高增，日均活跃用户数首度破 4 亿 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | 报告要点 | | | [Table_Summary] 快手公布 2024Q3 财报。快手 2024Q3 实现营收 311.31 亿元，同比增长 11.4% ；实现 Non- | | | GAAP 净利润 39.48 亿元，同比增长 24.4% 。分市场来看， 2024Q3 国内业务经营利润 35.05 亿元，同比增长 11.1% ；海外业务经营亏损 1.53 亿元，同比收窄 75.9% 。快 ...

康希诺生物（6185） 更新报告 流脑疫苗带动季度恢复盈利，多管线构建未来增长点 买入 2024 年 11 月 22 日 高小迪 852-25321960 疫情后首次实现单季度盈利：2024Q3 公司营收 2.64 亿元（同比+76.1%， 下同）。前三季度共计营收 5.67 亿元（+222.9%），扣除新冠疫苗预估退 货影响，同比增长 36.9%。前三季度销售费用 1.96 亿元（+1.2%），管理费 用 1.17 亿元（-37.6%），研发费用 2.72 亿元（-41.0%），管理费用和研 发费用支出都有明显降低，公司费用管控效果显著。此外得益于存货及资 产管理的不断优化，公司前三季度资产减值损失同比减少 7.77 亿元，归母 净亏损缩窄至 2.22 亿元。其中 Q3 归母净利润 264 万，在新冠疫情之后首 次实现季度盈利。扣非归母净亏损 672 万。 曼海欣增速喜人，扩龄申报上市在即：公司流脑疫苗产品收入取得高速 增长，前三季度录得 5.16 亿元，同比增长 39.07%。曼海欣在短期内仍将是 国内唯一的 MCV4 产品，有利于其进一步巩固在中国市场的地位。其 4-6 岁 扩龄的申报工作也在积极推进中 ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Geely Automobile (0175 HK) [10] Core Views - Geely Automobile's Q3 2024 performance showed strong growth with revenue reaching 1676 8 billion yuan, up 36 0% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders surging 358 5% YoY to 130 53 billion yuan [6] - The company's new energy vehicle (NEV) transformation is accelerating, with NEV sales accounting for over 50% of domestic market penetration in Q3 [6] - The integration of Zeekr and Lynk & Co is expected to optimize brand structure and enhance internal resource synergy [8] - Geely's GEA architecture supports a new product cycle, with Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy brands performing well [8] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 603 8 billion yuan, up 20 5% YoY and 9 8% QoQ, marking a record high for single-quarter revenue [6] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 24 6 billion yuan, up 92 4% YoY and 78 4% QoQ [7] - Gross margin improved to 15 6% in Q3, with further optimization in expense ratios [7] Brand Performance - Zeekr achieved sales of 55,000 units in Q3, up 51% YoY, with revenue reaching 18 36 billion yuan, a 31% YoY increase [7] - Lynk & Co and Zeekr's integration is expected to reduce related-party transactions and eliminate competition, enhancing resource synergy [8] Strategic Developments - Geely Group plans to transfer 11 3% of Zeekr shares to Geely Automobile, increasing its stake to approximately 62 8% [8] - Zeekr will acquire 51% of Lynk & Co, with 30% of the shares purchased from Volvo Group for 5 4 billion yuan [8] - The transaction is expected to be completed by Q1 2025, further solidifying Geely's strategic focus [8] Valuation and Outlook - Geely Automobile's current valuation remains low, with expected net profits of 160 billion, 118 billion, and 157 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively [8] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 7 7X, 10 5X, and 7 9X, indicating potential upside [8]

%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨小鹏汽车-W（9868.HK） [Table_Title] 小鹏汽车 2024 年三季报点评：强势新车周期带 动销量高增，毛利率再创新高 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 报告要点 | | | [Table_Summary] 2024 年三季度公司实现收入 101.0 亿元，同比 +18.4% ，环比 +24.5% ，净亏损 18.1 亿元，亏 | | | 损同比收窄 20.8 亿元， Non-GAAP 净亏损 15.3 亿元，亏损同比收窄 12.6 亿元。智驾能力持 续领先，新车周期强势开启，叠加渠道变革和营销体系加强，公司销量有望加速提升。规模提 | | | 升、平 ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|零售业 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发商社&海外】携程网(TCOM)/ 携程集团-S(09961.HK) 出境游领先行业恢复，利润超预期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 携程集团发布 3Q24 业绩公告。公司 3Q24 净收入 159 亿，同比增长 16%，环比增长 32%；毛利率同比提升 0.3pct 至 82.4%；non-GAAP 归母净利润为 60 亿元，同比增长 22%，non-GAAP 归母净利润率同 比增长 1.6pp 至 37.6%。 ⚫ 根据公司 3Q24 财报，（1）3Q24 住宿业务收入同比增长 22%至 68 亿 元。（2）3Q24 交通业务收入同比增长 5%至 57 亿元。（3）3Q24 旅游 度假收入同比增长 17%至 16 亿元。（4）3Q24 商旅服务收入同比增长 11%至 6.56 亿元。 ⚫ 根据携程研究院公众号，海外业务持续高增，出境酒店和机票预订已 全面恢复至 2019 年疫情前同期的 120%，可见公司出境业务的市占率 持续提升。公司国际 OTA 平台酒店和机票预订同比增长超过 60%。公 司在亚太 ...

赛晶科技（580 HK） | 2024 年 11 月 19 日 目标价：8.80 港元 香港股市 │电子行业 赛晶科技 (580 HK) IGBT 行业新星，国产替代任重道远 输配电、新能源产业链核心器件供应商 2010 年上市，赛晶科技（"公司"）是输配电行业、新能源行业以及工业领域中的阳极 饱和电抗器、层叠母排、功率半导体等核心器件供应商，亦是国内自主研发阳极饱和电 抗器主要供应商之一。2019 年，公司开启 IGBT 和 IGBT 模块的研发和制造，并于 2020 年 发布首款产品。公司随后完成了 IGBT 芯片、ST 分装 IGBT 模块，SiC 芯片及模块以及车 规级 BEVD 的研发和制造。公司是国内 IGBT 企业中，第一批量产 12 寸晶圆的企业。 输配电业务稳步推进 自 2009 年起，公司迅速成为特高压柔性直流输电设备的主要供应商，参与了国内几乎所 有直流工程。2023 年输配电领域的收入占比 39.5%，毛利率 48.0%。 "十四五"规划中 提出了加强特高压输电工程等清洁能源输送通道的建设和利用效率，对设备提出了更高 要求。于"十四五"期间，国网规划建设特高压工程涉及线路 3 万余公里 ...