Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4Q25 at 4.84 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.2%, which is in line with market expectations [1][2] - Operating profit for the quarter was 350 million RMB, down 26.7% year-over-year, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment and adjustments in the tourism segment [3] - Adjusted net profit reached 780 million RMB, exceeding expectations by 3.3% [1][3] - The company is optimistic about the resilience of domestic tourism demand and the long-term growth potential in international business and hotel management [1] Revenue Performance - The company's revenue for 4Q25 was 4.84 billion RMB, with the core OTA business showing strong performance [2] - Accommodation booking services generated 1.31 billion RMB, up 15.4% year-over-year, driven by an increase in hotel night stays and a slight rise in average daily rates [2] - Transportation ticketing revenue was 1.84 billion RMB, reflecting a 6.5% year-over-year increase, attributed to rising user demand and enriched value-added products [2] - Other business revenue, benefiting from the strategic acquisition of Wanda Hotels and Resorts, reached 917 million RMB, a robust growth of 53.0% [2] Profitability Analysis - The core OTA operating profit was 1.15 billion RMB, with an operating profit margin of 22.3%, aligning with expectations [3] - The vacation business reported an operating loss of 430 million RMB, below expectations, mainly due to strategic reductions in the buyout business and weak tourism demand in Southeast Asia and Japan [3] - The company confirmed a goodwill impairment of 453 million RMB in the vacation business, which significantly impacted overall operating profit [3] Growth Potential - The international ticket booking volume saw significant year-over-year growth, contributing 7% to total transportation ticketing revenue [4] - The company aims to increase the contribution of international business revenue to 10%-15% over the next 2-3 years, positioning it as a key growth driver [4] - The proprietary app has shown strong user engagement, with daily active users increasing by over 30% year-over-year, supported by the AI travel planning tool DeepTrip [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are estimated at 21.6 billion RMB, 24 billion RMB, and 26.6 billion RMB respectively, with slight downward adjustments for 2026 and 2027 [5] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.9 billion RMB, 4.4 billion RMB, and 4.5 billion RMB, reflecting minor downward revisions [5] - The target price for the company is set at 29.9 HKD, based on a 16x PE ratio for 2026, which is a discount compared to comparable global OTA platforms [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company Changfei Fiber Optic (6869.HK) [4][5]. Core Insights - Changfei Fiber Optic is a leading global player in the fiber optic cable industry, with a market share that has ranked first worldwide for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024. The company has a strong international presence, generating over 30% of its revenue from overseas markets for four consecutive years [1][3]. - The demand for fiber optics is expected to surge due to the AI-driven growth in data centers, with significant capital expenditures projected from major cloud service providers. This trend is anticipated to lead to a new industry cycle characterized by rising volume and prices [2][50]. - The company is focusing on advanced fiber optic technologies and expanding its product offerings, including optical modules and high-speed cables, to capitalize on the increasing demand from AI data centers [3][54]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Changfei Fiber Optic was established in 1988 and is the first company in China's fiber optic industry to be listed on both the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges. It provides a comprehensive range of fiber optic products and solutions to over 100 countries [1][13]. Industry Dynamics - The global fiber optic cable industry is entering a new phase driven by AI, with a projected market size of USD 139.2 billion by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 8.51% to reach USD 209.4 billion by 2030. The demand for fiber optics in data centers is expected to significantly outpace traditional telecommunications needs [50][51]. Financial Performance - For the first half of FY25, the company reported revenues of CNY 6.384 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.38%. The gross profit was CNY 1.807 billion, up 21.08%, while net profit reached CNY 346 million, reflecting a 5.63% increase [1][25]. - The company’s revenue structure has been adjusted to focus on two main categories: optical transmission products and optical interconnection components, with the latter showing promising growth potential [25][29]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's net profits for 2025-2027 to be CNY 966 million, CNY 4.209 billion, and CNY 6.162 billion, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 110x, 25x, and 17x, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers in the later years [4][6]. - The company has demonstrated a consistent improvement in gross margins due to product mix optimization and cost control measures, with expectations for continued margin expansion in the future [29][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Keren Biotechnology (06990), indicating a positive outlook for the company as it is positioned to become a leading global ADC enterprise due to its differentiated ADC pipeline, strong R&D foundation, and deep collaboration with Merck [1] Core Insights - Keren Biotechnology's core product, sac-TMT (Lukangshatuo), is identified as the main growth driver for the company, with significant clinical advantages demonstrated in key studies [1] - The product has shown a progression-free survival (PFS) of 7.9 months compared to 2.8 months for chemotherapy (HR=0.23) and an overall survival (OS) of 20 months compared to 11.2 months for chemotherapy (HR=0.45), indicating its competitive edge in the market [1] - The company expects substantial sales growth for sac-TMT in 2026, especially after its inclusion in the national medical insurance directory, with projections indicating that this product will contribute over 80% of revenue [1] Clinical Development - 2026 is highlighted as a critical year for Keren Biotechnology, with a focus on the ongoing Phase III clinical trials of sac-TMT combined with Pembrolizumab (Keytruda) for first-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer, with key data expected to be released throughout the year [2] - The company has already achieved primary endpoints in its Phase III study for PD-L1 positive non-small cell lung cancer, reinforcing confidence in the clinical value of the ADC + IO combination [2] - Keren Biotechnology is also advancing other ADC pipelines and combinations with immunotherapies and small molecule targeted therapies to expand indications [2] Competitive Advantages and Innovation - Keren Biotechnology has established collaborations with Merck for several ADC projects, including SKB410 and SKB571, which have shown significant progress in a competitive landscape [3] - The company is exploring diverse technological pathways, including RDC and dual payload ADCs, with several innovative products already in clinical stages [3] - Notable projects include SKB107 for advanced solid tumors, SKB103 as a dual-target ADC, and SKB565, which introduces a new concept of dual delivery for enhanced anti-tumor effects [3] Long-term Growth Potential - Keren Biotechnology is expected to continue unlocking pipeline value and driving long-term growth by leveraging its ADC technology advantages and global collaborations with international pharmaceutical companies like Merck [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Henderson Land Development Company Limited (恒基地产) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that Henderson Land has a historical tendency to maintain stable dividends rather than a fixed payout ratio since 2018, leading to expectations that the dividend per share will remain unchanged in the coming years [1] - It is anticipated that the company's stock price may come under pressure following a dividend cut, suggesting that investors may find opportunities to buy at lower prices [1] - The forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the company's earnings from 2025 to 2028 is projected to be 19% [1] - The target price for the stock has been adjusted down from HKD 39 to HKD 35 due to high uncertainty regarding the current interest rate outlook [1] Financial Projections - A 38% year-on-year decline in core earnings for 2025 is expected, which the market is unlikely to find surprising [1] - The 30% reduction in dividends is seen as a measure that alleviates some uncertainties [1] - Management aims to stabilize dividends by 2026, with earnings expected to rebound by 28% in the same year, particularly with profit margins from development properties in Hong Kong anticipated to recover to mid-teens (approximately 13% to 17%) [1] - The report suggests that these targets should be achievable as long as the macroeconomic environment does not significantly deteriorate [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on SANY Heavy Industry (06031) with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 30 [1] Core Insights - SANY Heavy Industry is the largest engineering machinery manufacturer in China and ranks among the top three globally, poised to capture the next phase of global equipment demand driven by replacement cycles, accelerated electrification, and high-quality internationalization strategies [1] - The company's profit structure is undergoing transformation, with increasing contributions from high-margin overseas markets, mining, new energy, and after-sales services, distinguishing it from domestic peers through leading risk management and strong operating cash flow [1] - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% in earnings per share from 2025 to 2027, indicating that the current valuation is not expensive compared to other global leaders, with further upside potential as profit margins expand and capital returns accelerate [1] - The report also maintains an "Overweight" rating for SANY Heavy Industry's A-shares (600031.SH) with a target price of RMB 28, anticipating a 25% year-on-year increase in net profit for the last quarter of the previous year [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) [5] Core Insights - In 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 3.758 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 57.67%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -10.469 billion yuan, a significant decline of 546.14% compared to the previous year [1][5] - The company holds a 47.7% market share in the ADAS market for domestic brands, leading the industry. In the mid-to-high-end intelligent driving market, it has a 14.4% share, positioning itself among the top tier of the industry [1] - The company has significantly increased its hardware shipments, with a total of 4.01 million units shipped in 2025, a 38.8% increase year-on-year. The shipments of hardware supporting mid-to-high-end intelligent driving functions reached 4.8 times that of the same period in 2024, accounting for 45% of total shipments [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are estimated at 6.056 billion, 9.508 billion, and 14.737 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of -2.428 billion, -898.6 million, and 1.034 billion yuan [2][3] - The company is expected to maintain a revenue growth rate of 61.1% in 2026, followed by 57.0% in 2027 and 55.0% in 2028 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be -0.2 yuan in 2026, -0.1 yuan in 2027, and 0.1 yuan in 2028 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for 2025, with total revenue reaching 27.303 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of approximately 221%, and net profit of 4.868 billion RMB, up 231% [2] - The company anticipates strong performance in Q1 2026, projecting sales revenue of approximately 19-20 billion RMB and net profit of around 3.6-3.8 billion RMB [2] - The brand's market influence and product innovation are key drivers of revenue and profit growth, with the company achieving high sales performance in both online and offline channels [3][4] Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 37.6%, which is expected to recover to over 40% following price adjustments due to rising gold prices [5] - The company’s net profit margin improved to 18.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points [5] - Revenue from gold products in 2025 was 27.3 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 221% [4] Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 37.294 billion RMB, 45.471 billion RMB, and 53.776 billion RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 41.50 RMB, 51.01 RMB, and 60.55 RMB [6][8] - The projected growth rates for revenue are 36.59% for 2026, 21.92% for 2027, and 18.26% for 2028 [8] Market Position - The company ranks first in store efficiency and sales per square meter among luxury brands in mainland China, and second in overall revenue among luxury brands in the region [3] - The company has expanded its loyal customer base to approximately 610,000 members, with a significant overlap in consumer demographics with international luxury brands [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 39.69 per share [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 567 million for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.9%, and an adjusted net profit of USD 122 million, also up by 24.4% [2][7]. - The company's three main business segments showed robust growth, with the baby care segment generating USD 446 million in revenue, up 23.1%, and the female care segment achieving USD 99 million, up 27.9% [7]. - The African market remains stable, while the Latin American market is emerging as a new growth engine, with revenue in Latin America increasing by 134.3% to USD 22.05 million [7]. - The gross profit margin improved to 35.9%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, aided by favorable currency exchange rates and product mix optimization [7]. - The company is expected to see net profits of USD 143 million, USD 167 million, and USD 192 million for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 16, and 14 [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at USD 567 million, with expected growth rates of 17.2%, 15.1%, and 12.7% for the following years [2][8]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is USD 121 million, with growth rates of 27.4%, 18.2%, and 16.6% anticipated for the next three years [2][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be USD 0.20 for 2025, increasing to USD 0.31 by 2028 [2][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from USD 763 million in 2025 to USD 1.448 billion by 2028 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Kelun-Biotech (6990.HK) [3][6][13] Core Insights - The company is transitioning towards an integrated R&D and sales model, with its core product sac-TMT having received approval for four indications domestically and is undergoing 17 global Phase III clinical trials [4][6] - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.058 billion yuan, with drug sales contributing 543 million yuan and licensing and collaboration income reaching 1.5 billion yuan [3][4] - The company has established strategic partnerships with major firms such as Merck and others to expand its product offerings and market reach [3][4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted to 2.3 billion yuan and 3.337 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2028 set at 5.362 billion yuan [6][11] - The company reported a net loss of 382 million yuan in 2025, with expectations of a return to profitability in 2027 with a projected net profit of 36 million yuan [5][11] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 71.9% in 2025 to 78.0% by 2028, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [5][11] Product Pipeline - The core product sac-TMT is involved in multiple clinical trials, including studies for treating TNBC and NSCLC, with significant data showing improved overall survival rates [4][6] - The company has a diverse product matrix, including ADCs, immune therapies, and small molecules, with several products already approved and others in various stages of clinical trials [6][10]

证券研究报告 海底捞 (6862 HK) 港股通 期待战略聚焦下的新成长周期 2026 年 3 月 25 日│中国香港 餐饮 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 3 月 | 25 日│中国香港 | | 餐饮 | 目标价(港币): | 20.92 | | 海底捞公布 | 2025 年全年业绩：2025 | 年公司实现营业收入 | 432.25 亿元 | 樊俊豪 SAC No. S0570524050001 | 研究员 fanjunhao@htsc.com | | /yoy+1.1%；核心经营利润 | | 54.03 亿元/yoy-13.3%，对应核心经营利润率 | | SFC No. BDO986 | +(852) 3658 6000 | SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 zengjun@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 洪洋* 联系人 SAC No. S05 ...