新东方-S(09901):新东方-s(09901):出国业务或仍承压,降本增效或在4季度体现
BOCOM International· 2025-04-24 09:47
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price of HKD 46.00, indicating a potential upside of 29.8% from the current price of HKD 35.45 [1][4][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the overseas business may still face pressure, but cost reduction and efficiency improvements are expected to manifest in the upcoming quarter [1]. - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenue growth of 12.9% and net profit growth of 21.5% [2][9]. - The core education segment contributed 57% of total revenue, with new business revenue growing by 35%, accounting for 27% of total revenue [8][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for fiscal year ending May 31, 2023, was USD 2,998 million, with projections of USD 4,314 million for 2024 and USD 4,871 million for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -3.5%, 43.9%, and 12.9% respectively [2][15]. - Net profit for 2023 was USD 259 million, expected to rise to USD 381 million in 2024 and USD 457 million in 2025, with corresponding earnings per share of USD 0.15, USD 0.23, and USD 0.28 [2][15]. - The company’s operating profit margin is projected to be 12.1% for 2025, slightly down from 13.1% in 2024 [8]. Quarterly Performance - In the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, the company reported a revenue of USD 1,183 million, a 2% decrease year-on-year, with adjusted net profit of USD 102 million [8][9]. - The report anticipates a 13% year-on-year increase in core education revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, amounting to USD 1,036 million [8]. Valuation - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 12 times for 2025, with an expected profit growth of over 15%, indicating an attractive valuation [8][9]. - The report maintains a target price of HKD 46.00, based on a 15 times price-to-earnings ratio for the education services business [8][9].
新东方-S(09901):新东方-s(09901):预期筑底,看好全年盈利弹性
HTSC· 2025-04-24 09:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a bottoming out of its performance, with a positive outlook on profit elasticity for the full year [1]. - The core K12 business shows steady revenue growth, and operational profit margins are anticipated to improve post-autumn 2025 due to cost reduction measures [1][3]. - The non-selective business is projected to have revenue growth guidance of 10-13% year-on-year for Q4 FY25, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 FY25, total revenue was $1.183 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, while revenue excluding selective business was $1.038 billion, reflecting a 21.2% increase [1][2]. - Adjusted operating profit for Q3 was $142 million, with a profit margin of 13.3%, slightly better than previous forecasts [1][2]. - The company expects non-GAAP operating profit margin to improve by approximately 1 percentage point in Q4 FY25 due to a low base effect [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for non-selective business are adjusted to $4.424 billion, $4.819 billion, and $5.538 billion for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively [4][10]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are revised to $457 million, $550 million, and $654 million for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively [4][10]. - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue and profit margins, with a focus on enhancing management efficiency and optimizing expansion pace [3][4]. Valuation Analysis - The target price is set at $67.25 based on a 20x PE ratio for FY26E, reflecting the company's leading position in the education sector [4][13]. - The report highlights that the current demand for non-academic training remains strong, supporting the company's long-term growth potential [4][10].
京东集团-SW(09618):25Q1业绩前瞻:国补深化驱动核心品类高增,新业务投入相对可控
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-04-24 09:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group with a target price set at 132.4 HKD, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5][13]. Core Views - JD Group is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 11.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 291 billion CNY, driven by the effectiveness of national subsidy policies and a recovery in consumer spending [1]. - The company is leveraging its strong supply chain capabilities and internal efficiency improvements to enhance performance as macroeconomic conditions improve [1]. - The expansion of the self-operated business and the POP ecosystem is expected to continue, supported by national subsidy policies that stimulate consumer demand [2]. - The launch of JD's food delivery service is aimed at enhancing user experience and merchant offerings, with a focus on quality and ecosystem collaboration [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Forecast - JD Group's revenue is projected to be 12,510 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 8.0%, followed by 13,312 billion CNY in 2026 and 14,095 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 6.4% and 5.9% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders (Non-GAAP) is expected to be 519 billion CNY in 2025, 574 billion CNY in 2026, and 628 billion CNY in 2027 [4]. Business Strategy - The company is enhancing its self-operated business barriers and expanding its POP ecosystem, with a focus on integrating various marketing resources to drive sales of new products [2]. - JD's food delivery service has already covered 126 cities and attracted over 300,000 quality restaurants, with daily order volumes exceeding one million [3]. Market Position - The report highlights JD Group's strong position in the non-essential consumer goods sector, benefiting from government policies and a robust supply chain [5].
新东方-S(09901):新东方-s(09901):留学业务增速触底,降本行动缓解利润率压力
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-04-24 08:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the growth rate of the study abroad business has reached a bottom, and cost reduction actions are alleviating pressure on profit margins [6] - The company reported a revenue of $1.183 billion for 3QFY25, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, while non-selection business (education + cultural tourism) achieved revenue of $1.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.2% [4] - The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company was $113 million, down 14.3% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 9.6%, narrowing by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [4] Summary by Sections Study Abroad Business - The growth of the study abroad business has slowed, with revenue from overseas exam training and consulting reaching $296 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, which is a slowdown of 35.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5] - The high-end one-on-one training business is facing challenges due to its premium pricing, and the demand for studying abroad is returning to normal after the rapid release of pent-up demand from the pandemic [5] New Business Growth - New business revenue (K9 quality training + learning machine business) grew by 34.5% year-on-year to $325 million [5] - The company is expanding its service offerings to enhance the resilience of its study abroad business by adjusting class types and increasing youth overseas exam training services [5] Profitability and Financial Projections - The Non-GAAP operating profit margin for non-selection business narrowed by 1.8 percentage points to 13.3% due to the slowdown in the high-margin study abroad business [6] - The report projects Non-GAAP net profits for FY25, FY26, and FY27 to be $454 million, $534 million, and $636 million respectively, with a DCF target price of $74.8 [6][8]
泡泡玛特(09992):2025Q1收入超预期,IP、品类、渠道共振
Guohai Securities· 2025-04-24 08:34
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 165%-170% year-on-year for Q1 2025, with domestic revenue growth of 95%-100% and overseas revenue growth of 475%-480% [6][11]. - The company is experiencing strong growth in overseas markets, particularly in the Americas and Europe, with revenue increases of 895%-900% and 600%-605% respectively [8]. - The company is expanding its product categories and IP offerings, with a notable increase in the number of stores and online sales channels [8][11]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - As of April 22, 2025, the company's stock has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, with a 1-month performance of 31.0%, 3-month performance of 87.5%, and a 12-month performance of 430.6% [5]. - The current stock price is HKD 175.90, with a total market capitalization of HKD 236.22 billion [5]. Revenue Growth - The company expects Q1 2025 revenue to grow by 165%-170% year-on-year, with domestic revenue growth of 95%-100% and overseas revenue growth of 475%-480% [6][11]. - The company has opened 14 new stores in Q1 2025, with a total of 138 overseas stores [8]. Product Expansion - The company launched 19 new blind box products in Q1 2025, with strong market performance for several series [8]. - The company is accelerating the launch of MEGA and plush product lines, with 11 new MEGA products introduced in Q1 2025 [9]. Financial Projections - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting revenues of RMB 239.63 billion, RMB 330.69 billion, and RMB 412.41 billion respectively [11]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 60.82 billion, RMB 86.32 billion, and RMB 109.58 billion for the same period [11].
波司登(03998):动态点评报告:品牌创新驱动增长,期待春夏系列表现
Guohai Securities· 2025-04-24 08:34
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][12]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on brand innovation to drive growth, with expectations for strong performance in the Spring/Summer collection [3][8]. - The company has been recognized for its sustainable practices, being included in the "Sustainable Development Yearbook (China Edition) 2025" by S&P Global, highlighting its leadership in ESG [5][8]. - The company is actively upgrading its channels and innovating its products, which is expected to enhance brand growth and sales performance [8][11]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 255.6 billion, RMB 288.3 billion, and RMB 325.0 billion for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, with net profits of RMB 34.98 billion, RMB 39.88 billion, and RMB 45.20 billion [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from RMB 0.30 in FY2025 to RMB 0.39 in FY2027, indicating a positive growth trajectory [10][11]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 23% in FY2025 to 24% in FY2026 and FY2027 [10][11]. Market Performance - As of April 23, 2025, the company's stock price is HKD 3.95, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 45.57 billion [4][12]. - The stock has shown a relative performance of -1.0% over the last month, 7.6% over the last three months, and -6.0% over the last year compared to the Hang Seng Index [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its product offerings with the launch of the 2025 Spring/Summer collection, which includes innovative materials and designs aimed at meeting diverse consumer needs [8][11]. - The company has initiated a stock buyback program, demonstrating management's confidence in the company's future prospects, with a total of 69.21 million shares repurchased, representing 0.6% of total shares [9][11].
讯飞医疗科技(02506):首次覆盖:收入结构优化,医院及患者服务双擎驱动增长
Haitong Securities International· 2025-04-24 08:06
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company [5][9]. Core Insights - The company's BC business is experiencing strong growth, with significant market potential as foundation models expand in healthcare. Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.98 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.55 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits attributable to shareholders expected to be -0.09 billion, -0.004 billion, and 0.11 billion RMB [5][9]. - The revenue structure has been optimized, with hospital business revenue increasing by 103.4% and patient services by 56.6%, raising their combined share from 35.9% in 2023 to 46.8% in 2024 [10][11]. - The launch of the Spark Medical foundation model X1 in March 2025 marks a significant advancement in AI healthcare, surpassing existing models in accuracy [12]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 0.56 billion RMB in 2023 to 1.55 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24.9% [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve from a loss of 0.31 billion RMB in 2023 to a profit of 0.87 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a significant turnaround [3][4]. - The company's gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 55% over the forecast period, with a notable increase in net profit margin projected for 2027 [6][10]. Business Model and Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading provider of AI-enabled medical solutions in China, holding a market share of 5.9% in the AI healthcare sector as of 2023 [8]. - The company offers a range of services including primary healthcare support, hospital efficiency enhancement, patient service improvement, and regional management platform solutions [8]. - By the end of 2024, the AI assistant is expected to cover 30 provinces and 670 districts, providing approximately 0.91 billion AI diagnostic suggestions [11].
东岳集团(00189):冷剂景气度向上,公司业绩持续向好
Guoxin Securities· 2025-04-24 07:48
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dongyue Group is "Outperform the Market" [5][30][31] Core Views - The refrigerant market is experiencing an upward trend, leading to continuous improvement in the company's performance. In 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 811 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [8][30] - The company is a leading producer of R22 and R32 refrigerants in China, with significant production capacity and quotas, which positions it well to benefit from rising refrigerant prices [2][19] - The fluoropolymer segment has a complete industrial chain and cost advantages, contributing to profit growth despite a decrease in revenue [3][23] - The organic silicon segment is seeing improved supply-demand dynamics, with increased sales volume offsetting price declines [4][24] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Dongyue Group reported revenue of 14.181 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year, while net profit reached 811 million yuan, up 14.6% [8][30] - The gross profit margin was 21.62%, an increase of 4.81 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 6.96%, up 2.76 percentage points [8][30] Refrigerant Segment - The refrigerant segment generated revenue of 3.248 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with profits soaring by 159.6% to 806 million yuan [2][19] - The company holds approximately 22,000 tons of R22 production capacity and 6,000 tons of R32 capacity, with significant market share in quotas [2][19] Fluoropolymer Segment - The fluoropolymer segment achieved revenue of 3.825 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 16.0%, but profits increased by 50.9% to 508 million yuan [3][23] - The company benefits from a complete industrial chain and cost advantages, positioning it for high-end market breakthroughs [3][23] Organic Silicon Segment - The organic silicon segment reported revenue of 5.213 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, with profits turning positive at 102 million yuan [4][24] - Despite price declines, the increase in sales volume has led to improved financial performance [4][24] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a long-term growth trajectory in the refrigerant market, with forecasts for net profits of 2.177 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.953 billion yuan in 2026 [30][31] - The EPS is projected to be 1.26 yuan in 2025 and 1.70 yuan in 2026, reflecting strong growth potential [30][31]
康方生物(09926):AK112-306PFS强阳性,看好全球一线临床加速
HTSC· 2025-04-24 02:19
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 115.25 [8][5]. Core Views - The mid-term analysis of AK112-306 shows strong positive results, marking the second head-to-head positive outcome for the drug in the NSCLC field, indicating a promising future for the drug in lung cancer treatment [1][2]. - The drug has demonstrated significant benefits in first-line sqNSCLC patients, regardless of PD-L1 expression, with a notable safety profile [2][3]. - The company is expected to accelerate its global clinical trials, with positive results from AK112-306 likely to expedite the HARMONi-3 study [3][4]. - The company anticipates that the application for the drug's approval for 1L PD-L1 positive NSCLC in China will be submitted soon, with multiple ongoing Phase III trials for other indications [4][5]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB 0.76 billion, RMB 6.62 billion, and RMB 14.16 billion, respectively, reflecting an increase in the success rate of developing the 1L PD-L1 negative NSCLC indication [5][13]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 3.35 billion, with a significant increase expected in subsequent years [20][21]. - The DCF valuation method estimates the company's fair value at approximately RMB 970 billion, with a target price adjustment to HKD 115.25 [5][13].
东岳集团(00189):制冷剂盈利上行,氟硅材料静待复苏
HTSC· 2025-04-24 02:17
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 10.00 [7][8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 14.18 billion for 2024, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 0.81 billion, an increase of 14.6% year-on-year [1] - The profitability of refrigerants is expected to continue improving, leading to a positive outlook for the company [1][4] - The company’s net profit for 2024 was below expectations due to significant losses from the disposal of real estate business [1] Revenue and Profitability Analysis - The revenue from the polymer materials segment decreased by 16% to RMB 3.83 billion, while the gross profit increased by 51% to RMB 0.51 billion due to cost control measures [2] - The organic silicon segment saw a revenue increase of 7.3% to RMB 5.21 billion, with gross profit turning positive at RMB 0.10 billion [2] - The refrigerant segment benefited from supply-demand dynamics, with revenue increasing by 13% to RMB 3.25 billion and gross profit rising by 160% to RMB 0.81 billion [2] - The overall gross margin improved by 4.8 percentage points to 21.6%, while the expense ratio decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 13.3% [2] Price Trends and Market Conditions - As of April 23, 2024, the prices for refrigerants R22, R32, R125, and R134a increased by 9%, 13%, 7%, and 11% respectively since the beginning of the year, indicating a tight supply and sustained demand from downstream sectors [3] - Prices for PTFE and PVDF materials showed slight increases, while some organic silicon products experienced minor declines [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been slightly adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of RMB 1.62 billion, RMB 2.10 billion, and RMB 2.37 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The report assigns a price-to-earnings ratio of 10x for 2025, reflecting a discount compared to comparable companies, leading to a target price of HKD 10.00 [4]