Macro and Strategy - The February PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing activity, primarily due to the extended Spring Festival holiday, with new export orders showing a notable decrease, reflecting a cooling in external demand [7] - The rise in oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, is expected to push inflation higher, increasing the likelihood of a positive PPI in the first half of the year [7] - Attention is drawn to the upcoming National People's Congress meeting for policy direction, with a projected GDP growth target of 4.5%-5.0% for the year [7] Chemical Industry - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to elevate the risk premium and transportation costs for oil, leading to a higher baseline price for crude oil [8] - The attack on Qatar's energy facilities has caused a surge in European natural gas prices, impacting the European chemical industry [8] - Domestic refining companies are less affected by the Iranian conflict due to ample crude oil inventories [8] - Recommended stocks include oil and gas producers such as China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil, as well as chemical companies like Sinochem International and Wanhua Chemical, which may benefit from rising energy prices [8] Metal Industry - The drag from the real estate sector on copper and aluminum demand has significantly reduced, with potential for demand growth if real estate data rebounds [9] - Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and electronic equipment continue to drive demand for copper and aluminum [9] - Some downstream sectors remain weak, but domestic demand policies are expected to boost related sectors [9] Company Analysis: Weixing Co., Ltd. - Weixing Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 4.787 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.41%, while net profit decreased by 8.38% to 642 million yuan [13] - The fourth quarter showed a recovery in revenue growth, but profits were pressured by increased foreign exchange losses and rising depreciation [14] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in orders and a potential easing of negative impacts from tariffs and exchange rates in 2026 [14] Company Analysis: MINIMAX-WP - MINIMAX-WP reported a revenue of $79.04 million for 2025, a 159% year-on-year increase, driven by significant growth in AI-native products [16] - The adjusted loss rate narrowed significantly, with gross margin improving to 25% due to enhanced model efficiency and optimized infrastructure [16] - The company plans to focus on programming, office applications, and multi-modal content creation in 2026, anticipating rapid growth in token consumption [17][18]

Market Overview - US and European markets rebounded, with tech stocks in the US rising over 1% and the VIX index dropping more than 10% [1] - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates optimistic economic expectations in the US, with moderate growth anticipated in the coming months [1] Oil and Gas Industry - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices by $10 to $76 per barrel due to disruptions in major export routes caused by the Iran conflict, leading to increased oil storage [2] - The cost of supertankers on the US-Asia route surged to a record high of $29 million [1] - Maersk suspended cargo bookings to and from several Middle Eastern countries, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, due to ongoing regional conflicts [1][9] Semiconductor Industry - Asian semiconductor manufacturers are expected to increase capital expenditures to over $136 billion in 2026, driven by demand for AI chips and HBM memory, marking a 25% year-on-year increase [12] - Tesla is reportedly negotiating with Samsung to increase the production scale of 2nm AI chips by 50% [12] Robotics and Automation - Xiaomi's founder submitted proposals focusing on humanoid robots, predicting a market size of $5 trillion by 2050, with significant growth expected in industrial and service applications [9] - The humanoid robot industry is entering a critical mass production phase, benefiting companies with manufacturing advantages and supply chain integration [9] Financial Market Dynamics - Southbound capital saw a net outflow of HKD 466 million on March 4, but overall, there has been a net inflow in 27 out of 37 trading days this year, totaling CNY 161.245 billion [5] - The offshore RMB against the US dollar rose to 6.8951, reflecting a gain of 243 points [5] Corporate Developments - Huawei and BYD announced new "disruptive" technologies, with Huawei launching a new generation of laser radar products [5] - Samsung Electronics completed negotiations for DRAM supply prices, with increases of approximately 100% compared to the previous quarter [5]

早 报 精 选 3、欧美股市全线上涨，美股加密货币概念股集体大涨。 1、十四届全国人大四次会议今日上午开幕。 4、Seedance2.0生成视频价格公布，生成视频一秒1块钱。 2、国新办今日举行吹风会，解读《政府工作报告》。 5、中石油超越农业银行，夺得A股市值冠军。 宏 观 新 闻 1、十四届全国人大四次会议3月4日在人民大会堂举行新闻发布会，大会发言人娄勤俭就大会议程和人大工作相关问题回答中外记者 提问。娄勤俭介绍，十四届全国人大四次会议将于3月5日上午开幕，3月12日下午闭幕，会期8天，共安排3次全体会议。大会议程共 有十一项。 行 业 新 闻 2、国务院新闻办公室将于今日上午11时30分举行吹风会，请《政府工作报告》起草组负责人、国务院研究室主任沈丹阳，《政府工 作报告》起草组成员、国务院研究室副主任陈昌盛解读《政府工作报告》，并答记者问。 1、从知情人士处获悉，鸿蒙智行"五界"以及"华系"更多品牌和价位车型将陆续搭载896线激光雷达。3月4日，华为乾崑发布全球量 产线束最高的896线新一代双光路图像级激光雷达，并率先搭载于尊界S800及问界M9旗舰版车型。 3、中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅4日同 ...

加入轩辕同学 ， 成就新汽车人! 设计 | 甄 尤 美 题图 ｜ A I 撰文 | 郝 雨 涵 编辑 | 张 南 "15年被套11年，今天终于解套了。"一位持有中石油股票的网友，2026年3月3日，在社交媒体平台这样说道。 炸弹落在波斯湾，也炸出了股市"三桶油"的历史首次集体涨停。 当天，受美伊冲突影响，石油板块持续大涨。其中，中国海油、中国石油、中国石化（简称"三桶油"）更是收获两连板，创下其A股历史首次集体 涨停纪录，中石油更是趁这波涨势重回A股市值第一。 油价同步飙升，出现历史性涨幅。3 月 3 日布伦特一度突破 85 美元 / 桶，较战前涨超 20%，创下2025年1月以来的最高水平。 黄金作为避险资产的"压舱石"作用，也在发生美国和以色列对伊朗战争的这几天体现得淋漓尽致。Wind数据显示，伦敦金属交易所现货黄金价格 一度逼近5400美元/盎司，而COMEX黄金期货盘中则突破了5400美元大关。 这些异常波动的原因当然是因为对伊朗的战争，而直接的导火索则是全球能源运输的咽喉要道——霍尔木兹海峡的停摆。 当地时间2月28日晚，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队宣布，禁止任何船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。随后的两天里，海峡内已有 ...

延续多时的涨价潮，终于在国际争端的催化下，快速从石油、化工原料推进到材料端了，而且来得很猛。此前已经涨价非常明显材料包括 聚氨酯、弹性体、有机 硅 ，现在或将蔓延更多品类，比如塑料领域。 刚刚，3月4日， 巴斯夫 宣布全球范围内上调塑料应用领域抗氧化剂、加工助剂和光稳定剂产品价格，最高涨幅达20%，主要受原材料成本上涨、通胀压力及运费 增加影响。 然后就是， 万华化学 宣布，PA12全系列产品自3月1日起涨价5%-10%，具体幅度依产品型号另行告知，直言"受上游原料价格持续上涨影响，生产成本面临显著 上行压力" 。 作为全球极少数能够掌握全产业链PA12生产的厂商来说，自然有涨价底气 。此前，万华化学的王牌产品MDI、TDI、TPU等都已经涨过几轮了。 点击阅读 ： 巴斯夫、科思创、万华化学，再涨价！ 最后是，很意外的 金发科技 。 3月2日， 珠海金发生物材料有限公司 发布 PBAT产品 价格调整函，即日起上调PBAT系列产品价格： PBAT树脂类涨价700元/吨，PBAT改性系列涨价500元/ 吨，PBAT母粒系列涨价400元/吨。 | 产品系列 | 各类产品涨幅(具体可联系我司销售人员咨询) | | | ...

亚太市场收盘后，欧洲市场开启了微弱的反弹行情，截至北京时间17时，英国富时100指数跌 0.35%，法国CAC40指数、德国DAX指数分别上涨0.06%和0.33%。 韩国股市两天蒸发1000点 3月4日，韩国综合股指跌超8%后，连续第二天盘中触发"临时停牌"机制。然而，熔断机制解除 后，跌势仍未止住。Wind数据显示，截至当日收盘，韩国综合股指跌12.24%，收于5083.02 点，创该指数有史以来最大单日跌幅。 3月3日至4日，韩国综合股指的跌幅约为18.43%，三星电子 的股价缩水20%，SK海力士的股价也缩水了19.98%。在此 轮全球股市震荡之时，韩国股市成了"重灾区"。 作者：牛钰 封图：图虫创意 3月3日，全球股市遭遇"黑色星期二"。因中东局势急剧升级，亚太、欧洲及美洲主要股票市场均 出现大幅下挫。 3月4日，最先交易的亚太股市齐齐下跌。截至收盘，A股上证指数收跌0.98%，失守4100点；港 股恒生指数收跌2.01%。日经225指数跌3.61%。韩国综合股指跌12.24%。截至北京时间17 时，新加坡海峡指数跌超2.28%，印度孟买指数跌超1.1%。 苏商银行特约研究员付一夫对经济观察报表示， ...

在中东地区地缘局势升级的背景下，A股市场的石油天然气板块强势异动，在短短数日内"独占鳌 头"。 油气股掀起狂潮，公募基金快速响应，调整相关产品发行节奏——3月3日晚间，易方达国证石油 天然气ETF（159181）发布公告，将募集时间提前了两个工作日。 不过，由地缘冲突引发的资产价格再定价中，市场关注的是，资源板块的行情是趋势反转，还是阶 段性交易？基金公司"抢发"产品又释放了怎样的信号？ ETF"抢发" 伴随着近期行情演绎，公募基金对产品发行节奏快速调整。 3月3日晚间，易方达基金发布了一则募集期调整公告。公告称，易方达国证石油天然气ETF募集 时间调整为2026年3月5日至3月12日，该基金管理人根据认购的情况可适当调整募集时间，并及 时公告，但最长不超过法定募集期限。 2月28日，易方达国证石油天然气ETF发布公告表示，该基金将自2026年3月9日至3月20日进行 发售。 油气股掀起狂潮，公募基金快速响应，调整相关产品发行节奏 ——3月3日晚间，易方达国证石油天然气ETF（159181）发 布公告，将募集时间提前了两个工作日。 作者：洪小棠 封图：图虫创意 这也意味着，该基金仅提前2个交易日发售。 根据公 ...

2026.03. 04 本文字数：2145，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一 财经 齐琦 地缘冲突持续，国内化工板块在经历集体大涨后，迎来"分水岭"。 3月4日收盘，化工板块在早盘高开后走势分化。个股方面，北化股份（002246.SZ）今日盘中触及 涨停，收盘报24.11元，上涨9.64%，多只甲醇概念股在前一交易日涨停后，4日涨势分化，泸天化 （000912.SZ）、金牛化工（600227.SH）收盘分别涨5.19%、5.5%；赤天化（600227.SH）却 收跌3.6%；广汇能源（600256.SH）两连板后，4日收盘下跌3.37%。 从期货市场收盘数据看，苯乙烯主力期货收报8213元/吨，上涨2.27%；PTA主力期货收报5694元/ 吨，最近一周累计涨超8%；甲醇期货主力合约收报2553元/吨，周累计涨超17%，但多个远月合约 收跌。 "这场由美伊冲突升级、霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻引发的供给链中断，带来了石油、天然气等能源价格 暴涨，油气及煤化工企业也显著受到催化。"一位交易人士告诉记者，国内化工行业方面，细分到 PTA、苯乙烯、甲醇等品种，因各自不同的基本面格局，展现出截然不同的上涨韧性。预计随着市场 ...

今天市场继续下跌，很多人开始对着账户垂头丧气了，说实在的，没啥必要——开篇，我们先抛开短期的阴霾， 聊点中长期视角的东西吧 ，以 下内容，首发在今天的知识星球中，我觉得具有一定的普适性，因此，凝练之后，分享给大家。 下图，数据源，来自于保险业协会近期发布的，保险机构的26年资产配置展望， 收集了36家保险资管机构，和91家保险公司的调查结果 ，算是 核心的买方观点了—— 据我所知，这也应该是行业首次采取这个形式，所以含金量算是很足的 。 本篇，可以和此前12月底写的这篇，《 解读保险大佬们的26年展望 》，一起看。 从数据中抽丝剥茧，总结为以下10条。 1、10年国债看1.8-1.9%，30年国债看2.2-2.4%——从长债收益率，再看红利。 下图 ，分别是保险机构对26年内，10年国债和30年国债的点位判断，其中蓝色是保险资管机构，橙色是保险公司，我们合并在一起看个大概。 科普一下，"保险资管机构"通常是大中型保险公司下设的，因此更能代表大中型险资的观点，而很多小保险公司没有创设保险资管机构，因 此"保险公司"的观点中，中小险企的权重会更高——要详细了解这块背景的，请见2023年的老文《 聊一聊神秘的保险资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the A-share market, particularly focusing on the performance of oil prices, manufacturing PMI, and the impact of geopolitical tensions on various sectors [4][13][30]. Group 1: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have shown significant volatility, with a recent increase of approximately 18%, indicating that the market has priced in a 25% to 30% risk of severe supply disruptions [4]. - If the current supply disturbances are short-term, factors such as oversupply and high inventories may lead to a decline in oil prices below current levels [4]. - Historical data suggests that a sustained oil price increase of 50% to 100% over several months is necessary to trigger an economic crisis [7]. Group 2: A-Share Market Performance - As of the market close, China Petroleum's stock price was 13.24 CNY, up 0.68%, with a market capitalization exceeding 21,438.48 billion CNY, regaining the top position over Agricultural Bank [8]. - The A-share market saw a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.98%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.75%, and the ChiNext by 1.41% [29]. - The trading volume in the market was 23,881.92 billion CNY, a decrease of 7,697.98 billion CNY from the previous day, with over 3,600 stocks declining [29]. Group 3: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for February fell by 0.3 percentage points to 49%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [13]. - The new export orders index decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 45.0%, suggesting a decline in external demand [13]. - Morgan Stanley noted that despite the seasonal disruptions, infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate in March, supporting GDP growth in Q1 to reach 4.8% to 4.9% [15]. Group 4: Sector Performance and Trends - The electric power equipment, military industry, agriculture, and chemical sectors showed positive performance, while sectors like non-bank financials and transportation faced declines [29][46]. - The military equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased defense spending due to rising geopolitical risks [30]. - The electric power equipment sector is experiencing growth driven by significant investment in transmission infrastructure, with a total of $75 billion in projects approved [29]. Group 5: Price Adjustments and Market Reactions - Lenovo has announced price increases for certain computer products, with some models seeing price hikes exceeding 1,000 CNY [39]. - Samsung has completed negotiations for a 100% price increase in DRAM supply for the first quarter, reflecting a significant rise in demand and costs [39]. - The article highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on commodity prices, particularly in the context of the Middle East, affecting supply chains and market stability [39].