证券研究报告 创科实业 (669 HK) 港股通 电动工具主业稳健增长驱动盈利提升 华泰研究 年报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 刘思奇 研究员 SAC No. S0570523090004 SFC No. BSE590 +(86) 21 2897 2228 周衍峰 研究员 zhouyanfeng@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 SFC No. BXA731 倪正洋 研究员 SAC No. S0570522100004 SFC No. BTM566 +(86) 21 2897 2228 刘微 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070023 SFC No. BXF693 liuwei024778@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 目标价(港币): 144.30 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 fanjunhao@htsc.com SFC No. BDO986 收盘价 (港币 截至 3 月 4 日) 121.80 市值 (港币百万) 222,798 6 个月平均日成交额 (港币百万) 514.61 52 周价格范围 (港币 ...

股 票 研 究 燃机巨头订单旺盛，机器人基础模型 Pi 06 鲁棒性提升 [Table_Industry] 机械行业 机械行业周报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 刘麒硕(分析师) | 0755-23976666 | liuqishuo@gtht.com | S0880525080005 | 本报告导读： 上周（2026/2/24-2026/2/27）机械设备指数涨跌幅为+4.40%。燃机巨头订单旺盛，GEV 排产达 2029 年，地缘政治动荡推升油服设备景气上行。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 机械行业《春节后气体整体表现偏弱；广钢气体 中标海南商业航天发射场氦气采购项目》 2026.03.01 机械行业《具身模型 Pi 06 鲁棒性大幅提升，国 内人形初创百亿估值俱乐部增加至 6 家》 2026.02.28 机械行业《出口链月度跟踪：主要航线海运费同 ...

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 02 日 核心结论 分析师 【电子】2026 年电子年度策略：端云算力同频共振，自主可控步履铿锵 AI 硬件：国产 AI 芯片发展迅速，算力高景气度下，PCB、存储等供不应求。 半导体：全球资本开支重回增长轨道，晶圆扩产驱动设备国产化与先进封装 高景气。 端侧：AI 重塑终端形态，硬件升级与新兴品类开启新一轮创新周期。 【航海装备Ⅱ】船舶行业系列报告之二：船舶：摘取皇冠明珠，国产 LNG 船扬帆起航 LNG 运输船是现代造船工业皇冠上璀璨的明珠，其技术壁垒较高，是中国 造船业一直想要突破的高端船舶产品。2008 年 4 月 3 日，中国首制 14.7 万 立方米系列 LNG 船"大鹏昊"成功交付，打破了西方垄断 LNG 船市场的局 面，成功实现了"国轮国造"。 【计算机】英伟达 LPU 方案印证专用推理芯片的可行性 我们认为：英伟达将 LPU 整合进自身 AI 芯片体系，展现了专用推理芯片 （ASIC/DSA）在生成式 AI 推理计算中的重要性。这或将印证国产 AI 芯片 通过专业推理架构，在 AI 推理侧实现性能突破的可能性。AI 推理芯片的高 速迭代，或将推 ...

Industry Research Summary: Tools Industry Industry Overview - The tools market has reached a scale of over $100 billion, with growth rates correlated to GDP, maintaining a steady mid-single-digit growth in stable conditions [1][3] - The U.S. is the largest single market, with key companies generating over 60% of their revenue from the Americas, indicating a high exposure to the U.S. market [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The demand for tools is highly correlated with the U.S. real estate cycle. Current high mortgage rates and bottoming out of existing home sales are expected to improve as interest rates decline, potentially driving tool demand [1][5] - The tools industry primarily relies on offline channels, which are influenced by the inventory cycles of distributors. The inventory destocking phase is nearing its end in the second half of 2024, with stable inventory growth expected in 2025 [1][6] - The industry is anticipated to enter a recovery phase in 2026, driven by a resonance between the real estate cycle and the inventory cycle [1][7] Competitive Landscape - Techtronic Industries has established itself as the global leader in the tools sector, with QEP and JiuStar Technology ranking second in the OPE and hand tools categories, respectively. These companies are expanding through both organic growth and acquisitions [1][8] - The trend towards lithium battery technology is significant, with electric tools achieving a penetration rate of 70%-80%, while OPE has substantial room for growth [1][10] Market Dynamics - The tools market is characterized by over 10,000 SKUs, with electric tools and smart technology being key evolution directions. The introduction of robotic lawn mowers is a notable segment, with QEP planning to launch a new product in Europe in 2026 [1][3][12] - Companies are responding to tariff impacts by shifting production overseas. Techtronic and JiuStar have established significant overseas operations, while QEP is accelerating its efforts to cover U.S. exposure by the end of 2026 [1][3][14] Financial Performance and Projections - The tools sector has experienced a painful destocking period from 2022 to 2023, but current inventory levels are at historical lows. The anticipated improvement in U.S. real estate is expected to drive demand recovery and strengthen inventory replenishment efforts [2][5] - QEP and JiuStar have provided double-digit revenue growth guidance for 2026, supported by current valuations below historical averages, indicating potential for valuation and performance recovery [2] Profitability and Margins - Techtronic demonstrates strong anti-cyclical capabilities, with a gross margin exceeding 40% and a stable net profit margin of 7%-8% [19] - JiuStar's gross margin has improved significantly from a low of 22% in late 2022 to 35% in the latest quarter, driven by structural optimization and overseas production ramp-up [19] - QEP's profitability is expected to improve as its high-end Ego brand continues to grow, with a projected net profit margin of around 10% [19] Strategic Differentiation - Companies are employing diverse channel strategies, with Techtronic heavily reliant on Home Depot, while JiuStar and QEP are diversifying their channels to include online platforms and direct-to-consumer sales [13] - The competitive landscape is evolving with a focus on battery platform universality, with Techtronic and QEP leading in this area [10][11] Conclusion - The tools industry is poised for recovery, driven by improving real estate conditions and inventory cycles. Key players are strategically positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities through innovation and market expansion. The focus on lithium battery technology and smart tools will likely shape the competitive dynamics in the coming years [1][2][20]

2026 年 03 月 01 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 近期涨价链行情观点及 3-4 月布局思路 最近一年走势 相关报告 《流动性周报 2 月第 3 期：社融同比增速放缓，权 益基金发行回暖*赵阳》——2026-02-24 《年报预报落地后，市场如何演绎？*赵阳》—— 2026-02-01 《流动性周报 1 月第 3 期：宏观资金均衡偏松，ETF 继续大幅净流出*赵阳》——2026-01-28 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、怎么看待近期涨价链行情；2、即将 到来的三月该配置什么风格和主题。 | 2、 | 三月中旬开始可能要关注风格切换 6 | | --- | --- | | 3、 | 三月的三个配置思路 8 | | 4、 | 风险提示 14 | 核心要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 《流动性周报 2 月第 2 期：宽基流出明显收窄*赵 阳》——2026-02-10 《流动性周报 2 月第 1 期：宽基 ETF 继续大幅流 出*赵阳》——2026-02-02 2 月份涨价是 ...

核心观点 免税：春节假期离岛免税销售整体稳健，市场预期过高导致股价暂时承压。短期看，折扣缩减、货币升值的带动仍有 待体现；中期看，高端消费复苏、日本旅游回流逻辑不变，看好中长期业绩增长逻辑不变，持续推荐。 黄金珠宝：本周金价整理后向上突破，头部品牌涨价效果或好于预期。2 月 28 日老铺黄金正式启动 2026 年开年首轮 调价，整体涨幅在 20%-30%之间，创下公司历史调价新高。本次调价呈现大克重、热门款涨价更高的规律，小克重入 门款相对涨价幅度较小，对高客群体的价格策略方面更加强调品牌调性。 消费者对涨价接受度好于预期，品牌力持续验证。从线下表现看，2 月 27 日北京、上海、广州、澳门多地门店排队火 爆，排队时间或达 3 小时以上；2 月 28 日涨价后上海豫园店、杭州万象城等地依然出现排队盛况。看好 26 年店铺优 化调整与高客运营策略，同店增长有望持续；同时海外加速布局，有望贡献超额增量。 行业数据追踪 GMV 表现：根据国金数字未来 Lab，1 月第 4 周天猫+京东整体 GMV 同比+81.52%，同比高增或与年货节错期相关。 品类表现：根据国金数字未来 Lab，1 月第 4 周天猫+京东品类增 ...

Group 1 - In 2026, China is expected to return to the "value investment year" of 2019, driven by strong cash flow from manufacturing and consumption sectors, which will attract value investors again [1][13] - The foundation of Buffett's "value investment" is stable cash flow from "big DCF assets," which are characterized by low capital expenditures and high cash flow [2][14] - China's large refining sector possesses a global competitive advantage and is also a stable cash flow "big DCF asset," benefiting from the appreciation of the RMB and increased export capabilities [3][15] Group 2 - The chemical industry, particularly segments like fluorochemicals, synthetic resins, and plastics, has seen a significant recovery in free cash flow, with many sectors recovering to historical percentiles above 60% and some above 90% [5][17] - The large refining sector is anticipated to experience a "Buffett moment" in 2026, coinciding with a potential global oil price supercycle as geopolitical tensions ease [4][16] - The investment logic for Zijin Mining includes short-term supply concerns due to production halts at major copper mines, leading to potential price increases [21] - For Luoyang Molybdenum, the investment rationale is based on rising copper and gold prices, with a clear growth path through acquisitions and capacity upgrades [25][26] - Nanjing Steel's strategy focuses on resource integration and creating a stable return on equity through a comprehensive industrial chain [29][30] - Xinhua Insurance is positioned to benefit from strong investment returns due to its high equity elasticity and stable premium inflows [33][34] - Guobang Pharmaceutical is expected to see profit elasticity due to the clearing of excess production capacity in the animal health sector and a rebound in antibiotic demand [37][39] - Enjie Technology is set to improve its market position through cost reduction and product innovation in the lithium battery separator market [43][44] - Haiguang Information aims to expand its market share through AI infrastructure investments and new product launches [47][48] - Nanya New Materials is positioned for growth with innovative formulations and high-end product recognition in the electronic materials sector [50][51] - Xirui, a leader in the private jet market, is expected to benefit from increasing demand and improved delivery capabilities [55][57] - Yihai International is likely to see performance elasticity from product price increases and improved operational metrics [61][64] - Juxing Technology is expected to maintain steady growth through its leading position in hand tools and electric tools, supported by a healthy demand recovery [65][68] - Gobi Jia, focusing on special glass products, is set to benefit from increased demand in the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors [69][72]

Group 1: China Ping An - The core strategy of China Ping An is "comprehensive finance + medical care and elderly care," which aims to create a new value growth pole through a "product + service" model, leading to long-term stable profit growth [3][4] - The report suggests that the current market valuation of China Ping An is low, with a PEV of 0.75, and recommends a target market value of 1.6 trillion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 88.53 yuan per share [3][4] - The aging population in China and the increasing importance of commercial health insurance in medical payments are expected to enhance the effectiveness of the "product + service" model, positioning it as a new growth driver for the company [3][4] Group 2: Steel Research High Temperature Alloy - Steel Research High Temperature Alloy is a leading company in the high-temperature alloy sector, benefiting from strong demand in the aerospace industry and the trend towards technological self-sufficiency [5][6] - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in net profit, with forecasts of 132 million yuan, 152 million yuan, and 172 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, respectively [5][6] - The report highlights the resilience of the high-temperature alloy industry, driven by increasing defense budgets and the upgrade of aerospace equipment, which supports long-term demand [6][7] Group 3: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group is recognized for its strong innovation capabilities, with a focus on oncology and chronic disease treatment pipelines, and has established an international business development ecosystem [8][9] - The company has entered a strategic collaboration with AstraZeneca to develop innovative long-acting peptide drugs, which is expected to generate significant revenue potential [9][10] - The report predicts EPS growth of 48%, 36%, and -7% for 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 16.58 HKD per share [8][9] Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market in China is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with only 19% of cities showing signs of bottoming out as of Q4 2025 [18][19] - New home prices are experiencing significant fluctuations, particularly in first-tier cities, while second-hand home prices are generally declining [19][20] - The report indicates that the inventory clearance cycle is extending, with first-tier cities reaching 19-28 months and some second-tier cities exceeding 38 months [20] Group 5: Robotics and Automation - The company is actively expanding into the humanoid robotics sector, with new product launches expected to drive growth [21][22] - The report forecasts EPS of 1.14, 1.47, and 1.83 yuan for 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 147.00 yuan per share [21][22] - The company is leveraging its expertise in micro-drive systems to enhance its competitive position in the robotics market [22][23] Group 6: Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage sector is anticipated to see significant growth, with the introduction of capacity pricing mechanisms in provinces like Qinghai [36][37] - The report suggests that the demand for energy storage systems and batteries will increase, recommending several key stocks in this sector [36][37] - The expected growth rate for energy storage demand in 2026 is projected to be around 50% [38]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.26 [Table_Industry] 机械行业 出口链月度跟踪：主要航线海运费同比持续下 滑，2 月美国住房市场指数同比-14.29% | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 赵玥炜(分析师) | 021-23185630 | zhaoyuewei@gtht.com | S0880525040040 | | 丁嘉一(分析师) | 021-23187266 | dingjiayi@gtht.com | S0880525080009 | 本报告导读： 美元兑人民币小幅贬值，主要航线海运费同比继续下滑；美国餐饮 RPI环比下降， 美国住房市场指数环比承压。 投资要点： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 机械行业《特斯拉宣布重启光伏组件生产，三年 年化目标 100GW》2026.02.25 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.26 [Table_Industry] 机械行业 出口链月度跟踪：主要航线海运费同比持续下 滑，2 月美国住房市场指数同比-14.29% | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 赵玥炜(分析师) | 021-23185630 | zhaoyuewei@gtht.com | S0880525040040 | | 丁嘉一(分析师) | 021-23187266 | dingjiayi@gtht.com | S0880525080009 | 本报告导读： 美元兑人民币小幅贬值，主要航线海运费同比继续下滑；美国餐饮 RPI环比下降， 美国住房市场指数环比承压。 投资要点： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 机械行业《特斯拉宣布重启光伏组件生产，三年 年化目标 100GW》2026.02.25 ...