2026 年化工策略报告汇报 化工进入击球区：看好全球供 给反内卷大周期，看好全球 AI 需求大周期 20260128 摘要 基础化工行业产能扩张放缓，在建工程与固定资产比值降至低位，叠加 行业协会和龙头企业推动反内卷，有望扭转亏损局面，双碳政策也限制 了新增产能，预示行业盈利能力将恢复。 全球流动性宽松及新兴产业发展驱动需求增长，化工品消费具全球性， 下游产业对海外消费依赖度高，人工智能、机器人等新兴产业对新材料 需求增加，共同推动化工行业景气度提升。 基础化工行业价差虽有复苏但仍处底部，安全度较高，自由现金流自 2022 年以来逐渐改善，预计 2025 年全年转正，预示行业拐点出现， 为投资者带来分红等回报机会，潜在股息率普遍超过 10%。 化工行业估值提升受益于自由现金流转正、投资放缓约束、库存低位和 开工率良好，反内卷及能耗政策约束，以及欧洲企业退出市场，共同推 动化工产品价格上涨。 欧洲化工企业因能源成本、人工成本及供应链效率等问题，长期低开工 率难以恢复，高成本产能逐步退出市场，将导致聚烯烃、有机硅等产品 供应减少，推升全球价格。 Q&A 2026 年至 2030 年化工行业的整体趋势如何？ 从 ...

万华化学 20260128 摘要 万华化学经历产品价格周期性波动，股价随 MDI、TDI 价格先涨后跌。 2022 年后，受产能过剩和需求疲软影响，股价下跌，中美冲突加剧进 一步施压，2024 年触底。目前公司处于景气度底部，等待反弹，量增 显著，估值和基本面提供较好布局时机。 欧盟竞争对手如巴斯夫、科思创等受俄乌冲突影响，能源成本上升导致 盈利压力增大，化工产能退出约 5%，且短期内难以好转。这对万华化 学构成利好，有助于其提升市场份额和盈利能力。 国内行业投资缩减，资本开支增速转负。"反内卷"政策和"双碳"政 策有望控制产能，提升行业景气度。MDI 需求受益于发展中国家经济增 长和发达国家结构性需求，以及国内家电补贴政策和新兴应用领域。 美国和欧盟降息有望促进房地产市场复苏，从而带动 MDI 需求增长。全 球 MDI 市场寡头垄断，新增产能主要集中在万华化学，公司策略转向利 润获取，供应端管控有望推动 2026 年价格反转。 万华化学 MDI 产能接近 400 万吨，年产量约 300 万吨，MDI 价格向上 弹性大，盈利和市值空间可观。行业准入门槛高，万华 MDA 工艺领先， 若巨 MDA 和纯 MDA ...

2026 年 01 月 29 日 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2026-01-28 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2026-01-27 | | 3、《双融日报》2026-01-26 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 67 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：67 分（较热） ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：化工、银行、消费 1、化工主题："十五五"规划强调扩大内需，叠加美国降息 周期，化工品需求预期提升。行业供需双底基本确立，政策 助力产能出清，且资本开支连续两年负增长，供给端持续收 缩。市场普遍预计，2026 年化工行业将迎来周期拐点，有望 实现从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"，开启新一轮 上 升 周 期 。 相 关 标 的 ： 卫 星 化 学 （ 002648 ） 、 云 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2026 年 1 月 29 日 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 4151.24 | 0.27 | | 深证成指 | 14342.89 | 0.09 | | 沪深 300 | 4717.99 | 0.26 | | 中小 100 | 8742.72 | 0.19 | | 创业板指 | 3463.33 | (0.37) | 中银晨会聚焦-20260129 ■重点关注 【策略研究】策略点评—Clawdbot 重塑个人 AI 助理新范式*王君 高天然 Clawdbot 以创新设计推动 AI 向主动执行进化，凸显 AI agent 投资潜力。 【基础化工】化工行业 2026 年度策略—行业周期拐点已近，新材料蓄势腾 飞*余嫄嫄 徐中良 范琦岩 赵泰 2025 年化工行业景气度处于低位。展望 2026 年，本轮行业扩产已近尾声，"反 内卷"等措施有望催化行业盈利底部修复，同时新材料受益于下游需求的快 速发展，有望开启新一轮高成长。当前行业估值处于低位。维持行业强于大 市评级，推荐三条投资主线。 中银国际证 ...

1月28日，化工板块攻势不减。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘短暂震荡后迅速拉 升，而后持续高位震荡，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到3.2%，截至收盘，涨2.48%，收盘价续创2022年7 月以来新高。值得注意的是，化工ETF（516020）午后频现溢价交易，收盘溢价率更是高达0.42%，反 映买盘资金较为强势。 成份股方面，纯碱、氨纶、氮肥等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至收盘，和邦生物、浙江龙盛双双涨停， 卫星化学、华峰化学飙涨超8%，鲁西化工、桐昆股份、宝丰能源等亦涨幅居前。 消息面上，近日，工业和信息化部、国家发改委等五部门联合印发《关于开展零碳工厂建设工作的指导 意见》。自2026年起，遴选一批零碳工厂，做好标杆引领；到2027年，在汽车、锂电池、光伏、电子电 器、轻工、机械、算力设施等行业领域，培育建设一批零碳工厂；到2030年，逐步扩展至钢铁、有色金 属、石化化工、建材、纺织等行业领域，探索传统高载能产业脱碳新路径。 方正证券指出，对化企而言，一方面未来部分高能耗或高碳排放子行业的供给侧增量存量均有政策约 束，另一方面，随着碳排放权交易市场的扩围，碳配额制度有望重塑部分行业成本曲线，加速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.57%, driven by a "price increase" theme, particularly in resource sectors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market saw over 3,600 stocks decline, with a total trading volume of 2.97 trillion yuan [1] - The resource sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, led the market, with significant inflows of over 34.3 billion yuan into the sector [3] Group 2: ETF Performance - The Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876) reached a new high, with an intraday price increase of 7.35% and a closing increase of 6.95%, attracting a net subscription of 1.4 million units [3][5] - The Chemical ETF (516020) also performed well, with a closing increase of 2.48%, marking a new high since July 2022 [7] - The Hong Kong Information Technology ETF (159131) rose by 1.75%, reflecting strong performance in the semiconductor sector [10] Group 3: Commodity Prices and Economic Factors - International gold prices have reached historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][5] - The aluminum price has surged to a nearly four-year high, with spot gold reaching a new record of $5,283 per ounce [5] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decisions are expected to influence market dynamics, with a dovish stance likely to support the non-ferrous metals market [5] Group 4: Sector Analysis - The chemical industry is experiencing a price surge, with a notable increase in prices for products like soda ash and nitrogen fertilizers, indicating a potential turning point for the sector [7][9] - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a price increase, with major companies like Samsung and SK Hynix raising prices significantly for memory products [10][13]

融 研 究 院 聚酯：淡季中的强预期 张永鸽 期货从业证号：F0282934 投资咨询证号: Z0011351 业 金 期 货 弘 数据来源：Wind CCF 隆众资讯 弘业期货金融研究院 p 后市研判 风险点：原油 政策 装置变动 数据来源：Wind CCF 隆众资讯 弘业期货金融研究院 融 研 究 院 l 在强预期及资金涌入的带动下，聚酯产业链最近行情火爆。基于预期的好转和供需面的良好，PTA市场表现较为强势，PX的强势支撑和PTA 低开工、聚酯市场降负的缓慢共振。PTA价格在上涨的同时，也带动现货加工费和盘面加工费的纷纷走高。其中现货加工费提升至460元/吨 附近，环比25年末的300元不到的加工费大幅抬升。目前来看PTA市场负荷仍不高，季节性累库幅度不大。不过随着终端降负的加快，2月中 上旬聚酯也将迎来负荷低点，PTA若继续持续拉升或透支未来需求，后期市场或偏强震荡为主，但幅度料有限。 弘 业 期 货 金 l 乙二醇市场作为聚酯产业链中最弱的品种，在供需远期压力下持续走低。上周后半周沙特、科威特及美国等多装置检修停车，海外供应收 窄预期下，资金对于低估值的乙二醇产生做多意愿。国内卫星石化计划2月中转产 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings PTA - Core view: Neutral [5] - Month spread: Cautiously bearish [5] - Spot: Neutral [5] - Cost: Neutral [5] - Device change: Neutral [5] - Downstream demand: Neutral [5] - Supply - demand balance: Cautiously bearish [5] - Processing profit: Cautiously bearish [5] PX - Core view: Neutral [6] - Month spread: Neutral [6] - Spot: Neutral [6] - Device change: Neutral [6] - Import: Cautiously bearish [6] - Downstream demand: Neutral [6] - Supply - demand balance: Neutral [6] - Processing profit: Cautiously bearish [6] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - Core view: Neutral [7] - Month spread: Neutral [7] - Spot: Neutral [7] - Device change: Neutral [7] - Import: Neutral [7] - Downstream demand: Cautiously bearish [7] - Supply - demand balance: Neutral [7] - Processing profit: Neutral [7] 2. Report's Core Views PTA - PTA supply changes little, demand experiences seasonal decline, but positive capital expectations lead to a significant repair of processing fees. Short - term focus is on capital changes [5][57]. PX - PX supply - demand changes little, with high Asian operating rates. Near - term floating prices are weak, and PXN valuation is not low. Short - term focus is on capital changes [6][88]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - There are plans for domestic MEG plants to switch production, and overseas maintenance increases. Supply is expected to improve, while demand seasonally declines. Real - world inventory is accumulating seasonally from January to February. Short - term focus is on capital changes [7][137]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Weaving - Weaving is gradually reducing its operating rate. As of January 23, the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and printing and dyeing dropped to 66% (-4%), 49% (-6%), and 70% (-) respectively. Due to high raw material prices, downstream stockpiling is low, only about 1 - 2 weeks [9]. Polyester - As of January 23, the polyester load was around 86.2% (-2.1%). Cost rebounds compressed polyester cash flow again, and the average polyester inventory remained stable at around 12.7 days. Polyester plants are gradually implementing pre - holiday maintenance, and the subsequent operating rate may decline seasonally. The estimated loads for January and February are 88% and 83% (-1%) respectively [14][40]. PTA - **Device maintenance**: Many PTA devices are under maintenance. For example, Ineos, New Materials are in maintenance, and Dushan Energy's No. 2 device is planned to stop in late January. The planned maintenance volume from January to February is not low [48][50]. - **Inventory**: As of January 23, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased to 2.083 million tons, up 38,000 tons. The inventory pressure is currently not large [51]. - **Balance sheet**: From January to February, there is a small seasonal inventory accumulation. PTA processing fees are over 400 yuan, and short - term focus is on capital drivers [55][57]. PX - **Device operation**: The domestic PX operating rate is 88.9%, and Asia's is 81%, both at high levels. Shanghai Petrochemical slightly increased its load, while Zhejiang Petrochemical slightly decreased its load for 2 - 3 weeks. Sinochem Quanzhou plans to restart. In Asia, South Korea's GS reduced its load, and other changes are minor [6][79]. - **Balance sheet**: The near - term supply - demand is in a loose balance. PXN is around $350, with a relatively high valuation. Attention should be paid to capital changes [87][88]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Device operation**: As of January 23, the overall MEG operating rate was stable at a high level, with a total load of 73.66% and a coal - based load of 80%. Many domestic devices have maintenance, production reduction, or production switching plans. Overseas, there are also many device maintenance plans [104][106][122]. - **Inventory**: As of January 26, the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area was about 858,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,000 tons. The inventory is moderately high. The polyester factory's MEG raw material stockpiling days increased to 15.9 days (+0.7), and downstream stockpiling increased steadily [132]. - **Balance sheet**: Supply is expected to improve, while demand is seasonally weakening. There is seasonal inventory accumulation from January to February. As the price rebounds, the valuation has recovered significantly, and attention should be paid to capital changes [134][137].

Group 1 - The chemical raw materials sector increased by 3.58% on January 28, with Satellite Chemical leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the chemical raw materials sector showed significant price increases, with Satellite Chemical rising by 8.86% to a closing price of 24.21 [1] Group 2 - The chemical raw materials sector experienced a net inflow of 870 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 673 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Baofeng Energy and Satellite Chemical had notable net inflows from main funds, with Baofeng Energy receiving 223 million yuan [3] - Retail investors showed significant outflows in several stocks, including Baofeng Energy and Satellite Chemical, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3]

Group 1 - The core index, the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index (H11057), has seen a strong increase of 2.64% as of January 28, 2026, with notable individual stock performances including Bang Bio rising by 10.16%, Zhejiang Longsheng by 9.99%, and Satellite Chemical by 8.50% [1] - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) has increased by 2.87%, with a latest price of 1.15 yuan, and has accumulated a weekly increase of 2.77% as of January 27, 2026 [1] - The trading activity for the E Fund Chemical Industry ETF has been robust, with a turnover rate of 10.92% and a transaction volume of 61.67 million yuan, indicating active market participation [1] Group 2 - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF has reached a new high in scale at 549 million yuan and a new high in shares at 494 million shares, both within the past year [1] - Over the past eight days, the E Fund Chemical Industry ETF has experienced continuous net inflows, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 74.97 million yuan, totaling 280 million yuan in net inflows and an average daily net inflow of 35.02 million yuan [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index account for 56.73% of the index, including major companies such as Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical [2]