双融日报 2026 年 02 月 02 日 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：40 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 1、《双融日报》2026-01-30 2、《双融日报》2026-01-29 3、《双融日报》2026-01-28 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 40 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：化工、银行、消费 1、化工主题："十五五"规划强调扩大内需，叠加美国降息 周期，化工品需求预期提升。行业供需双底基本确立，政策 助力产能出清，且资本开支连续两年负增长，供给端持续收 缩。市场普遍预计，2026 年化工行业将迎来周期拐点，有望 实现从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"，开启新一轮 上 升 周 期 。 相 关 标 的 ： 卫 星 化 学 （ 002648 ） 、 云 天 化 （600096） 2、银行主题 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to show varied performance in Q4 2025, with significant growth in certain segments like gold and jewelry, while others like supermarkets and department stores are projected to decline [1][2][4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival season, suggesting that sectors with performance elasticity, such as duty-free shops and certain tourist attractions, should be closely monitored [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in enhancing e-commerce marketing, indicating a shift towards new retail strategies [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook - Gold and Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% in Q4 2025 - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% in Q4 2025 - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 1.2 to 2.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit growth of 150% to 254% in Q4 2025 - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion in Q4 2025, compared to a loss of 1.03 billion in the same period last year [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30% in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarkets and Department Stores - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a decline of 22.4% year-on-year, with a projected drop of 92.5% in Q4 2025 - Wangfujing: Expected net profit loss of 0.45 to 0.23 billion, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% in Q4 2025 - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a net profit growth rate of -3.1% in Q4 2025 - Home Home Joy: Expected net profit of 198 to 228 million, with a growth rate of 50.1% to 72.8% in Q4 2025 [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% in Q4 2025 - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% in Q4 2025 - Su Mei Da: Expected net profit of 1.355 billion, with a growth rate of 70.8% in Q4 2025 [3] Social Services Sector Outlook - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% in Q4 2025 - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% in Q4 2025 - Jiuhua Tourism: Expected net profit growth of 0% to 15% in Q4 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, certain tourist attractions, and gold and jewelry [9] - For 2026, the report suggests looking at service consumption and product consumption, particularly in duty-free and travel chains, as well as undervalued segments with improving fundamentals [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of outlet malls in China, highlighting their evolution from discount-focused shopping destinations to comprehensive lifestyle centers that cater to a wider range of consumer needs and experiences [6][7][18]. Group 1: Market Trends - The sales revenue of China's outlet industry is projected to grow from approximately 126 billion to 248 billion yuan between 2021 and 2025, nearly doubling in five years, showcasing strong resilience during market fluctuations [6]. - The traditional perception of outlet malls is changing, with younger consumers increasingly frequenting these locations for leisure and social activities, rather than just for discounted shopping [31][35]. Group 2: Business Model Evolution - Outlet malls are shifting towards a "one-stop" and "full-format" model, integrating non-retail sectors such as dining and entertainment, which now account for over 40% of offerings in some locations [11][12]. - Brands that previously avoided outlet malls are now entering the space, with examples including lululemon and ON, indicating a shift in inventory strategies where new and full-price items are becoming more prevalent [14][16][17]. Group 3: Consumer Demographics - The influx of younger consumers, particularly families, is revitalizing outlet malls, with family demographics making up 74.51% of visitors in some locations, prompting tailored experiences such as children's activities [34]. - Outlet malls are increasingly adopting immersive experiences and themed events to attract younger audiences, transforming them into social hubs rather than mere shopping venues [35][31]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The rise of new outlet formats is putting pressure on traditional shopping centers, which must adapt to maintain their relevance by offering unique experiences or locations that cannot be easily replicated by outlet malls [39]. - The competition is intensifying as new players, including internet giants, enter the outlet space, leveraging their resources to create a scale that challenges established outlet chains [26][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry, specifically for Outlet REITs [1]. Core Insights - The outlet industry is characterized by high cost-performance and anti-cyclical properties, appealing to consumers' frugal spending habits. During economic downturns, high-income consumers tend to downgrade their spending and turn to outlets for discounted luxury brands. The current expansion of outlets in China is slowing, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and innovating business models among major players [2]. - The domestic outlet market is less concentrated compared to overseas markets, indicating potential investment value in quality outlet REITs. The overall discount rate/capitalization rate for domestic outlet assets is higher than that of shopping centers, reflecting the volatility of income linked to sales performance. The report highlights that leading outlet REITs, such as CICC Vipshop Outlet REIT, maintain a high NOI yield above 77% for 2023-2024, showcasing their attractiveness to consumers and operational capabilities [2]. Summary by Sections Outlet Industry Characteristics & Comparison with Shopping Centers - Outlets differ from shopping centers in tenant management, customer coverage, business mix, and income structure. Outlets typically use a joint venture model, allowing for greater revenue elasticity and a focus on operational performance rather than occupancy rates. They also have lower fixed costs and a higher profit margin due to their retail-centric business model [3][25][29]. - The seasonal characteristics of outlets are notable, with Q2 and Q3 being off-peak seasons, while Q1 and Q4 see higher sales due to major holidays and promotional events. This seasonal pattern influences operational strategies, such as brand upgrades during off-peak periods [41][38]. Investment Value of Outlet REITs - The report emphasizes that the domestic outlet market is entering a phase of stable competition, with room for increased concentration among leading players. Quality outlets possess barriers in brand introduction, operational management, and capital strength, making them scarce and valuable assets. The anti-cyclical nature of outlets positions them as an attractive investment choice in a rational consumption environment [2][19]. - The report suggests monitoring specific outlet REITs, such as CICC Vipshop Outlet REIT and Huaxia Shouchuang Outlet REIT, as they demonstrate long-term investment potential [2]. Major Players in the Outlet Market - The report identifies six major players in the domestic outlet market, with Shanshan leading in the number of opened projects. These players are categorized into professional outlet operators and diversified department store transformations, indicating a competitive landscape with varying operational strategies [19][20][21]. - The report notes that two of the major players have already issued outlet REITs, showcasing the trend of institutional investment in this sector [22]. International Comparison and Future Outlook - The report draws parallels with international outlet markets, suggesting that the concentration level of domestic outlets is expected to rise, similar to trends observed abroad. This indicates a potential for growth and investment opportunities in the domestic outlet sector [48].

项目以奥莱品牌矩阵为核心引擎，汇集全国首家概念店、形象店、旗舰店，依托多层次首店集群构建差 异化竞争力。开业活动期间，累计客流245万人次，销售突破2亿元，单日最高客流突破26万人次，销售 突破2600万元；元旦期间客流累计62万人次，销售突破5600万元。 据悉，湾里.王府井WellTown以"全国首家跨界融合多元体验的文商旅商业体"为定位，成为区域微度假 消费的重要目的地。以"光、水、天空"元素为主题的三大中庭作为标志性景观，成为该项目最受瞩目的 打卡地，吸引大量游客在此驻足。 WellTown创新联动太空人爬行动物博物馆等为代表的主理人品牌，以策展式零售模式打造前沿消费目 的地，持续吸引高黏性年轻客群。此外，WellTown创新性地打造了WCCA湾里当代艺术中心，通过高 品质策展及多元文化活动，为商业空间注入艺术内涵与文化价值。 记者从北京城市副中心获悉，北京城市副中心全新文商旅地标——湾里王府井（600859）WellTown自 去年年底开业以来，以超预期态势掀起消费热潮，开业首月累计客流突破330万人次，累计销售突破3亿 元。 ...

当前时点如何看消费顺周期？20260129 摘要 房地产市场：预计 2027 年接近底部，短期一线城市二手房成交量回升， 价格跌幅收窄，政策稳定预期，显示边际向好信号。关注未来超常规政 策如房贷结构性工具、公积金降息及城市更新货币化安置。 货币政策与流动性：央行维持低利率，定期存款到期或转向理财及权益 市场，活期存款增加，资金更易流入资本市场。地产板块持仓比例仅 0.4%，刷新历史新低，估值修复迅速。 财政政策与消费：财政支出倾斜社保民生等领域，多地发放消费券支撑 春节消费，1 月政府债同比多增，表明财政前置发力。2026 年一季度经 济量价预计整体提升。 通胀预期：春节临近及季节性因素致蔬菜、水果、白酒价格上涨，国际 金属价格上行推动 PPI 向 CPI 传导，预计 2026 年 CPI 中枢高于去年。 白酒板块持仓降至新低，有望迎来反弹。 消费品市场：大众品复苏节奏超前于白酒，连锁业态维持高景气，规模 效应提升利润率。调味品板块库存消化完毕，进入发货周期，餐饮供应 链复苏，经销商备货积极。 Q&A 当前如何看待消费顺周期的表现？ 当前消费顺周期的表现主要受到几个因素的影响。首先，从地产层面来看，我 们总结 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The duty-free industry is experiencing significant changes, with cosmetics leading the category at 45% of sales by 2025, followed by jewelry at approximately 20% and a notable increase in gold sales due to new investment policies. However, the import of gold bars will be suspended by the end of 2025, leading to a decrease in mobile phone sales to around 14% and clothing and accessories at 12% [1][4][19]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Sales Growth Factors**: The increase in average transaction value in 2025 is primarily concentrated in Q4, driven by the launch of the iPhone 15, the National Day holiday effect, and the influx of customers due to the December closure. This upward trend is expected to continue into 2026, supported by increased visitor flow and a willingness to purchase high-ticket items [1][5]. - **Market Share Dynamics**: Sanya dominates the duty-free market with over 50% of sales, while China Duty Free Group (CDFG) holds an 80% market share, with pure duty-free sales reaching 85%. Other players like Wangfujing are on the rise, while Haikou's performance is declining [1][6]. - **Sales Projections for 2026**: The duty-free industry is expected to see high growth rates at the beginning of 2026, particularly during the Spring Festival, with a conservative estimate of at least double-digit growth despite potential limitations in store capacity [1][8][19]. - **New Store Openings**: There are plans for a new duty-free store at Phoenix Airport T3, likely operated by CDFG or Haikou Duty Free. However, the short-term potential for foreign investment in the duty-free market remains low [1][9]. Additional Important Content - **Consumer Behavior**: The average spending per person for outbound tourists is approximately 8,500 yuan, compared to 6,000 yuan for domestic tourists. The gap is narrowing due to increased gold purchases by domestic consumers [15]. - **Government Initiatives**: In 2025, the Hainan government issued 2.1 billion yuan in duty-free consumption vouchers, the largest amount ever. For 2026, additional vouchers are planned to stimulate consumption, particularly in Sanya [17][18]. - **Tax Reform Implications**: There is no clear timeline for tax reform, which could significantly impact the duty-free market. If implemented, it may lead to a loss of competitive advantage for existing duty-free stores as brands could sell directly to consumers [20]. Conclusion The duty-free industry in Hainan is poised for growth, driven by strategic government policies, changing consumer preferences, and market dynamics. However, challenges such as capacity limitations and potential tax reforms could impact future performance.

Core Insights - The Chinese consumer market is transitioning from total expansion to structural differentiation, characterized by an "L-shaped bottoming" trend as of early 2026, with retail sales growth impacted by factors like the timing of the Spring Festival and a decline in promotional activities [1] - A "K-shaped" differentiation is emerging, where resilient "extreme value-for-money" essential consumption contrasts with high-premium emotional consumption, while traditional mid-range discretionary spending faces growth challenges [1][2] - The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is recovering slowly, reflecting a rational return in middle-class consumption decisions, with consumers being more cautious about non-essential spending but willing to pay premiums for categories that satisfy "self-pleasure" and "social" needs [1] Consumer Trends - In December 2025, restaurant revenue grew by 2.2%, significantly outpacing the 0.7% growth in retail sales, with online food products seeing a remarkable growth of 14.5%, serving as a stabilizing force for overall consumption [2] - Emotional consumption sectors, such as sports entertainment (+9.0%), cultural office supplies (+9.2%), and cosmetics (+8.8%), are experiencing robust growth, contrasting sharply with the downturn in real estate-related sectors like home appliances (-18.7%) and construction decoration (-11.8%) [2] Valuation Insights - Core consumer sectors have fallen to historical low valuations, providing a significant safety margin for investors [3] - As of January 2026, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for food and beverage is at 7.5%, with liquor even lower at 4.1%, indicating that pessimistic expectations are already priced in, highlighting the long-term value of core assets [4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a "barbell" investment strategy, recommending defensive positions in essential consumption and social service leaders with low valuations and strong cash flows, such as grain and oil, traditional Chinese medicine, and gold jewelry, while also emphasizing their dividend value and defensive attributes [5] - On the offensive side, investors should capture growth sectors benefiting from policy catalysts and fundamental improvements, including the duty-free sector and emotional consumption categories like cosmetics, sports goods, and trendy toys [5] Policy Impact - The first month of the Hainan Free Trade Port's duty-free sales reached 4.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.8%, demonstrating the strong appeal of "zero tariffs and low tax rates" for high-end consumption [6] - China Duty Free Group holds a dominant market share of 78.7% and continues to strengthen its channel and brand barriers through acquisitions and expanding its presence in city stores [7] Emerging Markets - The pet economy is experiencing a "humanization" upgrade, and the "going out" trend in categories like home appliances is also contributing to significant incremental alpha sources [9] - The shift in pet ownership towards viewing pets as family members is driving both volume and price increases, while the home appliance sector leverages China's supply chain advantages to replicate successful "extreme value-for-money" strategies overseas [10] Market Dynamics - Overall, while the total consumption recovery is not steep, the market opportunities are shifting from a "beta market" to "structural alpha" under low valuations and clear structures [11] - Investors are encouraged to abandon linear thinking of a "full recovery" and focus on "dividend assets" and "emotional consumption" as dual main lines, employing a "barbell" strategy to seize certain opportunities amid uncertainty [12]

2026 年 01 月 30 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：50 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2026-01-29 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2026-01-28 | | 3、《双融日报》2026-01-27 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 50 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：化工、银行、消费 1、化工主题："十五五"规划强调扩大内需，叠加美国降息 周期，化工品需求预期提升。行业供需双底基本确立，政策 助力产能出清，且资本开支连续两年负增长，供给端持续收 缩。市场普遍预计，2026 年化工行业将迎来周期拐点，有望 实现从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"，开启新一轮 上 升 周 期 。 相 关 标 的 ： 卫 星 化 学 （ 002648 ） 、 云 ...