智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，根据特步国际(01368)25年中期报告，公司将于25H2升级零 售战略，进行DTC改革，加快响应消费者需求，提高运营效率，该行预计DTC改革将逐步推进，短期财 务影响较小。预计公司25-27年归母净利润13.62/15.14/16.58亿元，参考可比公司，给予公司26年PE10 倍，对应合理价值6.02港元/股，维持"买入"评级。 广发证券主要观点如下： 25Q4特步主品牌流水同比持平 根据公司25Q4及25Q3运营公告，特步主品牌全渠道流水同比持平，环比Q3(低单增长)降速，预计主要 受Q4天气暖和、春节时间晚等因素影响冬装销售；零售折扣为70-75折，环比Q3持平；渠道存货周转为 约4.5个月，环比Q3(4-4.5个月)略有增加，但仍处于健康水平。该行预计电商渠道有望延续25H1趋势， 维持双位数增长；特步儿童在"特步少年"助力儿童运动追高的品牌定位下，推出成长鞋，有望实现较快 增速。 25Q4索康尼流水恢复高增 根据公司25Q4运营公告，索康尼全渠道流水同比增长超过30%，环比Q3(同比增长超过20%)有所提速， 预计主要系公司自Q2对电商渠道进行调整，Q4已初 ...

Core Insights - The event "New Opportunities for Apparel Export" and "Logistics Industry Inspection in Indonesia" was successfully held in January 2026, focusing on exploring efficient supply chain solutions for Chinese brands in Southeast Asia [1] - A delegation of over twenty logistics and supply chain leaders from domestic apparel and home textile companies conducted an in-depth investigation of J&T Express's localized logistics service system in Indonesia [1] Group 1: Logistics Infrastructure - J&T Express showcased its key operational nodes in Indonesia, including an automated sorting capacity exceeding one million packages daily, peaking at 2.5 million during high seasons [2] - The logistics network established by J&T Express covers over 17,000 islands in Indonesia, with more than 10,000 service points, 5,800 trunk vehicles, and 64 automated transfer centers [2] - This extensive infrastructure supports efficient circulation of e-commerce packages, particularly for light industrial products like apparel [2] Group 2: Digital Solutions - J&T Express presented systematic solutions to common cross-border logistics challenges such as customs efficiency, last-mile coverage, and reverse logistics [3] - The company has implemented a "warehouse and distribution integration" model, which has helped some apparel brands reduce inventory turnover costs by over 30% [3] - The logistics system developed by J&T Express enhances the predictability of cross-border fulfillment, achieving next-day delivery in Jakarta and stable delivery times of 2-3 days in core areas of Java Island [3] Group 3: Collaborative Ecosystem - The Secretary-General of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing's Apparel Logistics Branch highlighted the significant growth potential in the Indonesian market for logistics and e-commerce [4] - The inspection deepened the industry's understanding of the Southeast Asian market and laid a practical foundation for mutually beneficial cooperation [4] - J&T Express is positioned to evolve from a logistics service provider to a strategic partner for Chinese brands expanding into Southeast Asia, reinforcing its long-term competitive edge in cross-border logistics [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the EPS forecast for Xtep International (01368) at 0.49/0.55 yuan for 2025/26, introduces a new EPS forecast of 0.61 yuan for 2027, and sets a target price of HKD 6.47, reflecting an 11% decrease and a 27% upside potential from the current stock price, corresponding to an 11x P/E for 2026 [1]. Company Status - Xtep reported that its main brand's retail revenue remained flat year-on-year in Q4 2025, with retail discounts between 70% to 75%, and channel inventory turnover at 4.5 months by the end of December. The Saucony brand saw retail revenue growth of over 30% year-on-year [2]. Retail Environment and Performance - The retail environment showed fluctuations, with the main brand's retail revenue remaining stable in Q4 2025. Online channels, particularly live e-commerce, performed well. Monthly performance was strong in October and November due to promotional events, but December was affected by weather conditions. Retail discounts for the main brand remained stable, and the inventory turnover was healthy [3]. Saucony Brand Growth - The Saucony brand experienced accelerated growth in Q4 2025, with retail revenue increasing by over 30% year-on-year. Strong growth was noted in offline channels, with average store efficiency reaching 450,000 yuan per month. The brand's product line continued to expand with new sports and leisure products, achieving double-digit growth in apparel [4]. Strategic Focus for 2026 - In 2026, the main brand will focus on enhancing offline store efficiency, while the Saucony brand aims for a premium positioning. The management plans to convert 200 stores to a DTC model and open 20-30 new flagship stores. The company also plans to accelerate the opening of outlet stores, with a target of 70-100 new stores in 2026, and aims to enhance the high-end sports image of Saucony [5].

中金发布研报称，基本维持特步国际(01368)2025/26年EPS预测0.49/0.55元不变，引入27年EPS预测0.61 元，当前股价对应8倍2026年市盈率，维持跑赢行业评级。考虑行业估值中枢下移，下调目标价11%至 6.47港元，对应26年11x P/E，较当前股价有27%的上行空间。 特步主品牌线下渠道逐步优化提升，管理层表示4Q25已回收200家门店转为DTC模式，26年继续按计划 推进。新店型方面，2H25公司分别在西安、上海南翔开设金标领跑店，截至目前表现符合公司预期， 26年计划新开设20-30家金标领跑店。公司继续加快精选奥莱门店布局，25年已开出20+门店，规划在26 年开设70-100家精选奥莱店，已有门店月店效超100万元。索康尼方面，管理层规划2026年线下加强高 端运动形象，切入高端消费群体，渠道升级以提升店效，产品上继续投入研发，持续提升服装、休闲 OG系列的占比。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧，终端零售环境不及预期，渠道转型不及预期。 中金主要观点如下： 公司近况 公司公布2025年第四季度营运情况：特步主品牌零售流水同比持平，零售折扣七至七五折，12月末渠道 库存周转4.5个月 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Insights - The demand for bank bonds has increased due to rising bond yields, making them more attractive compared to loan interest rates, leading to sustained buying from institutional investors [12] - Wealth management products have shown a significant increase in scale, with a notable shift towards deposits, while there has been a reduction in bond holdings, particularly in interest rate bonds [14] - The one-year interest rate has decreased to 1.6%, indicating a trend of net repayment of certificates of deposit [15] Group 2: Real Estate Market Analysis - The second-hand housing market has shown improvement with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 7.3%, while new home sales continue to weaken with a year-on-year drop of 38.6% [5] - In 2025, new home prices fell by 3.0% and second-hand home prices dropped by 6.1%, with significant declines across all city tiers [24][25] - The report suggests that the real estate sector remains a key economic indicator, with potential for recovery driven by policy changes and market dynamics [26] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - The price of Brent crude oil has increased by 5.4%, while copper and coking coal prices have risen by 2.1% and 3.4% respectively, indicating a general upward trend in major commodity prices [5] - The coal market is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with prices stabilizing as winter demand begins to wane [28] - The silver price has recently surpassed $100, indicating a bullish trend in precious metals, while other metals like nickel and lithium are also showing upward momentum [23] Group 4: Consumer and Retail Sector Developments - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from policy support and improving fundamentals, particularly in new retail and service sectors [19] - Key retail segments such as hotels and duty-free shops are projected to see growth, with specific companies recommended for investment [20] - The report highlights the importance of domestic consumption and the potential for brands to expand internationally, with a focus on companies that have established competitive advantages [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the proactive allocation of active equity public funds towards technology manufacturing, cyclical industries, service consumption, and non-bank financial sectors, while reducing exposure to media, computing, military, real estate, and pharmaceutical industries in Q4 2025 [9][10][12] - The report highlights a significant increase in the allocation to cyclical industries, with the proportion of holdings in global pricing metals rising by 2.1 percentage points to 8.0%, marking a historical high, and the configuration coefficients for basic chemicals, automobiles, and construction materials also showing notable increases [9][10] - The report indicates that the AI sector remains a focal point for public fund holdings, with the communication sector's allocation reaching a historical high of 11.1%, and the overall TMT sector holding at 38%, despite a slight decrease from the previous quarter [11][12] Group 2 - The report discusses the performance of active equity public funds, noting a decrease in overall positions but an increase in the median net value growth of 25.8% for 2025, with a significant recovery in the technology sector [13][14] - The report outlines the growth of passive public funds, with the total scale of stock ETFs reaching nearly 3.8 trillion yuan in Q4 2025, marking a new high and surpassing the market value share of active equity public funds [14][15] - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for sectors with clear industrial trends and supportive policies, such as semiconductors, energy storage, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are reflected in the holdings of public funds [15][16] Group 3 - The report notes that the company Huafeng Measurement Control (688200) has released an earnings forecast for 2025, expecting revenue of 1.275 to 1.413 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.87% to 56.11%, and a net profit of 489 to 594 million yuan, reflecting a strong performance exceeding market expectations [30][31] - The report highlights that the company is positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in semiconductor equipment demand driven by AI, with global sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment projected to reach 133 billion USD in 2025, a 13.7% increase [30][31] - The report indicates that Zhongkong Technology (688777) has announced a stock incentive plan, with a target for AI business revenue exceeding expectations, and anticipates significant growth in its product lines focused on AI and high-performance computing [32][33]

[Table_Page] 公告点评|耐用消费品与服装 证券研究报告 | [Table_Title] 【 广 发 纺 服 | 海 外 】 特 步 国 际 & | | --- | --- | | （01368.HK） | | | 25Q4 | 主品牌稳健，索康尼环比提速 | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测：*本文如无特殊说明，货币单位均为人民币，1HKD=0.90CNY | [Table_ 单位 Finance] :人民币百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | 12,743 | 13,577 | 14,416 | 15,516 | 16,868 | | 增长率（ % ） | -1.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | | EBITDA | 2,120 | 2,379 | 2,343 | 2,571 | 2,813 | | 归母净利润 | 1,030 | 1,238 | 1,362 | 1,514 | 1,668 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies, including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, Huazhu Group, Li Ning, Miniso, and others, with target prices ranging from 6.99 to 354.00 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the enhanced subsidized interest policy for personal consumption loans, which has been extended until the end of 2026, including support for credit card installment payments and the removal of certain limits on subsidy amounts [2]. - Pop Mart's new PUCKY series has gained significant popularity, being referred to as the "electronic wooden fish" due to its unique design and emotional stress-relief features [3]. - Weekly performance shows TCL Electronics (+24.8%), Pop Mart (+23.0%), and others leading the market, while companies like Ecovacs (-1.2%) and Haier Smart Home (-2.2%) lag behind [5][9]. Company Summaries - **Pop Mart**: Recently launched the PUCKY series, which quickly sold out and is now being resold at a premium on secondary markets [3]. The company also repurchased 1.9 million shares [7]. - **TCL Electronics**: Established a joint venture with Sony to take over Sony's home entertainment business, reflecting strategic growth initiatives [8]. - **Huazhu Group**: Engaged in strategic partnerships and is expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in the hospitality sector [4]. - **Li Ning**: Continues to perform well in the market, maintaining a positive outlook with an "Outperform" rating [1]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes significant strategic partnerships, such as Saint Bella's collaboration with Yunji Technology to explore AI and robotics in home care [15]. - The IPO of Busy Ming was oversubscribed by over 1,500 times, indicating strong market interest [10]. - Regulatory developments include the State Council's solicitation of opinions on national standards for pre-made dishes, which could impact the food and beverage sector [10].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 25 Jan 2026 中国策略 China Strategy 春节红包行情蓄力稳行，科技与价值各有亮点 Spring Festival "Red Packet" Rally Builds Momentum Steadily, with Highlights in Both Tech and Value 周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang 从本周表现看，大盘如期震荡休整，市场整体情绪有所降温之后更健康，半导体走势偏强，航天军工等方向短期 震荡调整之后再次回暖。 我们判断，春节红包行情仍将蓄力稳行。从结构来看依然聚焦"高科技+强周期"，具体而言： ——高科技方向的机会：一方面，可继续延着当前年报预告业绩超预期的方向，深挖半导体特别是存储、储能、 电网设备、化工、创新药等方向。另一方面根据十五五规划相关的产业引领，进一步聚焦掘金国防军工、国产算 力/芯片、太空算力、可控核聚变等领域龙头。 ——价值方向的机会：首先，继续持有黄金及相关权益资产。其次，在震荡中择机布局性价比高、基本面改善的 低位价值股机会，关注港股具有业绩 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the textile and apparel fund holdings remained stable, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2% in clothing retail sales in December, indicating a slowdown in growth compared to the previous month [3][4]. - The report highlights structural opportunities in exports and notes that the retail data from the U.S. shows resilience, with a continuous decrease in the inventory-to-sales ratio for clothing [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Data Tracking - In December 2025, the retail sales of clothing increased by 1.2%, while textile and apparel exports decreased by 7.4% [18]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China increased by 0.9% year-on-year, with clothing and accessories retail sales growing by 1.2% [20]. - The textile and apparel export value for December 2025 was approximately $25.992 billion, down 7.4% year-on-year [20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages through diversified production capacity and highlights the importance of order cycle management [4]. - Recommended stocks include: - Bailing Oriental (百隆东方) [16] - Chaoying International Holdings (超盈国际控股) [16] - Anta Sports (安踏体育) [16] - Li Ning (李宁) [16] - Xtep International (特步国际) [16] - Prada (普拉达) [16] - Samsonite (新秀丽) [16] - Jiangnan Buyi (江南布衣) [16] - Taobo (滔搏) [16] - The report emphasizes the potential for mid-to-high-end product orders to show resilience and the positive outlook for cotton prices benefiting related cotton spinning enterprises [4].