Core Insights - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation-Driven Index has seen a slight increase of 0.01% as of October 20, 2025, with notable stock performances from companies like Nanwang Technology and China Satellite [3] - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation-Driven ETF (515900) has risen by 0.13%, with a latest price of 1.56 yuan, and has shown a cumulative increase of 0.97% over the past month [3] - The liquidity of the ETF is strong, with a turnover rate of 0.12% and a transaction volume of 4.19 million yuan, while the average daily transaction volume over the past year is 20.36 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] Industry Developments - The frequency of satellite launches in China has significantly increased since the end of July 2025, indicating a rapid acceleration in satellite internet deployment [4] - The successful launch of the sixth batch of the Qianfan constellation, with 18 satellites entering orbit, has brought the total number of satellites in orbit to over 108, enhancing communication coverage [3][4] - The commercial space industry in China is entering a rapid development phase, with the initiation of regular launches and advancements in reusable rocket technology expected to lower launch costs and increase capacity [4] ETF Performance - The latest scale of the Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation-Driven ETF is 3.495 billion yuan, placing it in the top quarter among comparable funds [4] - The ETF has seen a significant increase in shares, with a growth of 4 million shares over the past week, also ranking in the top quarter among comparable funds [4] - The index tracks 100 representative listed companies from state-owned enterprises, focusing on innovation and profitability, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 36.04% of the index [5]

Group 1 - The liquidity of the rare earth ETF managed by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 1.54% and a transaction volume of 1.65 billion yuan [3] - The latest scale of the Jiashi rare earth ETF reached 107.14 billion yuan, marking a new high since its establishment and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The Jiashi rare earth ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past six days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.184 billion yuan, totaling 3.328 billion yuan [3] Group 2 - As of October 17, the Jiashi rare earth ETF has increased by 93.31% in net value over the past year, ranking 4th out of 3069 index equity funds, placing it in the top 0.13% [3] - The highest monthly return since the establishment of the Jiashi rare earth ETF was 41.25%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being 4 months and the longest cumulative increase being 83.89% [3] - The average return rate during the months of increase is 10.78% [3] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Rare Earth Industry Index account for 61.96% of the total, including Northern Rare Earth, Wolong Electric Drive, Lingyi Zhi Zao, China Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, Greeenmei, Goldwind Technology, Baotou Steel, Xiamen Tungsten, and China Aluminum [3] - The Ministry of Commerce has issued four documents to strengthen rare earth export controls, adding five categories of medium and heavy rare earth export controls and regulating the export of equipment, technology, and raw materials across the entire industry chain [4] - The upgrade of rare earth export controls is expected to enhance the global competitive advantage of China's electric motor industry, as China holds 69% of the global smelting and separation capacity and over 90% of the precision processing capacity [4]

Core Insights - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index increased by 0.41% as of October 20, 2025, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Dayang Electric, Taiji Industry, and others [3] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) rose by 0.18%, with a latest price of 1.14 yuan, and recorded a turnover rate of 1.96% with a transaction volume of 88.94 million yuan [3] - Over the past week, the Free Cash Flow ETF achieved an average daily transaction volume of 368 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] Fund Performance - As of October 17, 2025, the Free Cash Flow ETF's net value increased by 19.79% over the past six months [4] - The ETF's highest single-month return since inception was 7%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 5 months and a maximum increase of 18.05% [4] - The ETF's average monthly return was 3.08%, with an 85.71% monthly profit percentage and an 80.28% monthly profit probability [4] Risk and Recovery Metrics - The maximum drawdown for the Free Cash Flow ETF over the past six months was 3.65%, which is the smallest drawdown among comparable funds [4] - The recovery time after drawdown was 35 days, indicating the fastest recovery among comparable funds [4] Fee Structure - The management fee for the Free Cash Flow ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest among comparable funds [4] Tracking Accuracy - The tracking error of the Free Cash Flow ETF over the past three months was 0.061%, marking the highest tracking accuracy among comparable funds [4] Top Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index accounted for 54.91% of the index, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation, SAIC Motor, and others [5] - The top ten stocks by weight include SAIC Motor (10.18%), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (9.81%), and Midea Group (9.28%) [7]

| 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵金属 | 1.21 | 15.13 | 35.3 | | 国有大型银 | 0.27 | 2.24 | 8.14 | | 行Ⅱ 农商行Ⅱ | 0.27 | 4.1 | 8.32 | | 航空机场 | 0.04 | 0.59 | 8.19 | | 冶钢原料 | 0.03 | 3.52 | 23.93 | | 跌幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | 光伏设备Ⅱ | -6.48 | 0.08 | 49.36 | | 其他电源设 | -6.38 | -2.18 | 37.9 | | 备Ⅱ 电网设备 | -5.89 | 3.85 | 27.5 | | 风电设备Ⅱ | -5.47 | 3.75 | 46.14 | | 元件Ⅱ | -5.05 | -13.5 | 96 | 证券分析师 陈悦 A0230524100003 chenyue@swsresearch.com 指数 收盘 涨跌（％） | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | - ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - Precious metals are experiencing strong demand due to geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to significant price increases for gold and silver [2][27][30] - Base metals, particularly copper, are facing price volatility with limited fundamental support, as domestic consumption remains weak and supply disruptions are easing [1][13][14] - The tungsten industry is seeing price fluctuations with a divergence in the supply chain, while the molybdenum market is experiencing price increases due to higher output from mines [3][71] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have retreated from highs, with domestic inventories increasing due to limited downstream demand and ongoing maintenance at smelters [1][13] - Aluminum prices have risen slightly, supported by stable supply and improved demand, with a decrease in social inventories [1][21][22][23] - Gold and silver prices have surged, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][27][29] Minor Metals - The tungsten market is experiencing mixed price movements, with some products increasing while others remain stable or decline due to weak downstream demand [3][66][67] - Molybdenum prices are on the rise, supported by increased output from mines and stable demand from steel manufacturers [71][73] Rare Earths - Recent export control policies are expected to strengthen China's position in the rare earth industry, with price fluctuations observed in various rare earth products [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report anticipates a potential upward trend in copper prices due to expected shortages in copper mines, particularly with the global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, facing production halts. The report suggests that the copper supply-demand balance may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage by 2026 [4] - The report highlights the performance of various metals, including aluminum, lithium, and cobalt, with specific recommendations for companies to watch in each segment [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Recent macroeconomic developments include a new round of US-China trade negotiations and comments from Trump regarding the unsustainability of high tariffs on China [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47% and the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index down 3.07%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 1.60 percentage points [10][11] 3. Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM for the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index is 26.96, down 1.78 from the previous week, while the PB_LF is 3.22, down 0.22 [19][22] 4. Copper - Copper prices have seen a decline, with LME copper down 1.86% and SHFE copper down 1.77%. However, the report indicates a potential for price recovery due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand [21][44] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with LME aluminum down 0.45% and SHFE aluminum down 0.47%. The report notes a decrease in inventory levels, which may support price stability [33][44] 6. Lithium - Lithium prices are showing mixed trends, with lithium carbonate down 0.27% and lithium spodumene up 0.83%. The report suggests that lithium prices may stabilize due to seasonal demand [73] 7. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased, with MB cobalt up 5.40% to $20.98 per pound, driven by changes in export regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo [86]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The trend of inventory reduction continues, driven by increased demand, and the aluminum price is expected to show stronger performance as inventory decreases [11] - The aluminum industry is anticipated to maintain high prosperity due to limited long-term supply growth and ongoing demand growth points [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of October 17, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,778.5 per ton, a week-on-week increase of $32.5 per ton, and a year-on-year increase of $191.0 per ton [24] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,910.0 yuan per ton, a week-on-week decrease of 70.0 yuan per ton, and a year-on-year increase of 320.0 yuan per ton [24] 2. Production - In September 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.615 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 118,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 74,000 tons [56] - The alumina production in September 2025 was 7.604 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 135,000 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 38.3 million tons [56] 3. Inventory - As of October 16, the domestic mainstream consumption area electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory recorded 627,000 tons, a week-on-week reduction of 22,000 tons, indicating a potential return to the inventory reduction trend [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shanjin International, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing price fluctuations due to tariff disturbances, but the long-term bullish trend remains intact. The U.S. government shutdown and increased tariffs on China are expected to boost gold's safe-haven demand [1]. - For industrial metals, copper prices are supported by supply disruptions, while macroeconomic uncertainties may cause short-term volatility. The aluminum market is expected to see high price fluctuations due to rising interest rate expectations and inventory reductions [2]. - In the energy metals sector, lithium prices are projected to remain strong due to increased supply and demand, particularly in the electric vehicle market. However, the silicon market is facing oversupply issues, leading to price fluctuations [3]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Tariff disturbances have led to price volatility in gold and silver, but the long-term bullish trend is expected to continue. The report suggests strategic allocation in precious metals [1]. - Recommended companies include: Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices are supported by supply disruptions from major mines, with a projected increase in price center due to mid-term supply constraints. However, short-term fluctuations may occur due to trade tensions [2]. - **Aluminum**: The market is experiencing high price volatility, influenced by interest rate expectations and inventory levels. The report suggests monitoring inventory accumulation [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The market is showing strong performance with supply and demand both increasing. The report indicates that lithium prices are likely to remain strong in the short term [3]. - **Silicon**: The market is facing oversupply, leading to price fluctuations despite being in a traditional demand season [3]. Key Companies - The report identifies key companies to watch, including: Luoyang Molybdenum, China Hongqiao, and Tianqi Lithium [5][6].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market - A" with a maintained rating [5]. Core Views - The market is currently influenced by the ongoing US-China trade tensions, leading to increased risk aversion. The focus is on the strategic attributes of rare earths and the safe-haven properties of gold. Despite potential short-term adjustments, the fundamentals for industrial metals, strategic metals, and precious metals remain positive, with a continued bullish outlook on metals such as rare earths, copper, aluminum, tin, gold, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium [1]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have reached new highs, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $4234.9 and $50.4 per ounce, reflecting increases of 6.5% and 7.3% respectively. Concerns over tariffs persist, and there has been a significant increase in global gold reserves, with a 19-ton increase reported in August 2025. The outlook for gold prices remains bullish in the medium to long term [2]. - Recommendations include stocks such as Shandong Gold, Shandong International, China National Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Hunan Gold [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown a slight decline, with LME copper closing at $10,607 per ton, down 1.81% from the previous week. The supply side is facing challenges, with Japanese copper smelting companies indicating reduced processing fees, leading to profit declines. Demand remains strong, with copper rod and wire cable production rates increasing [3]. - The outlook for copper prices is positive due to supply constraints, despite potential impacts from tariffs and macroeconomic policies [3]. - Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, Hebei Steel Resources, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Yunnan Copper [4]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2778.5 per ton, with a slight increase of 1.2%. The overall macroeconomic environment is optimistic, supporting stable aluminum prices. However, uncertainties from tariff wars and overseas mining events could still impact prices [4]. - The demand for aluminum remains stable, with no significant changes reported in construction and industrial material needs [4]. - Suggested stocks include Shenhuo Co., Tianshan Aluminum, Zhongfu Industrial, China Hongqiao, Hongchuang Holdings, Yunnan Aluminum, and China Aluminum [4]. Tin - Tin prices have decreased slightly, with the SHFE main contract at 280,750 yuan per ton. The market sentiment is weak, but there is an expectation of price stability due to tight supply conditions [9]. - Recommended stocks include Yunnan Tin, Huaxi Silver Tin, and Xingye Nonferrous [10]. Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices have shown slight declines, but the outlook remains positive due to expected supply changes and increased demand. The market is less pessimistic about the impacts of US-China trade tensions compared to earlier in the year [10]. - Recommended stocks include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, Shenghe Resources, Huahong Technology, Jinke Magnetics, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials [11]. - Cobalt prices are on the rise, driven by tight supply conditions and increased demand from battery manufacturers. The market is expected to see continued price increases [11]. - Recommended stocks include Huayou Cobalt, Liqin Resources, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tengyuan Cobalt, Hanrui Cobalt, and Greeenme [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the volatility in metal prices due to fluctuating tariff expectations and geopolitical factors, particularly affecting copper and aluminum prices [4][30]. - The precious metals sector is expected to benefit from increased central bank purchases, particularly gold, as the current pricing environment favors safety over yield [22]. - Industrial metals like copper are projected to see price increases due to stable demand from infrastructure investments and AI data centers, despite short-term tariff impacts [4][30]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 4.99% [5]. - The non-ferrous metals index decreased by 3.07%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.85 percentage points [5]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 69.59%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 54.87 percentage points [5][8]. Price Changes - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with COMEX gold rising by 5.76% and silver by 6.55% [4]. - Industrial metals experienced mixed results, with copper prices decreasing by 4.34% and aluminum by 1.19% [4][9]. - Lithium prices showed slight increases, while cobalt prices surged by 10.33% [4][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is expected to tighten due to production disruptions from incidents at major mines, with a projected 2.2% decrease in global copper supply [4][30]. - The aluminum sector is witnessing stable demand, with a shift towards peak consumption season anticipated [4][44]. - The steel industry is experiencing a decrease in production, while downstream demand is increasing, leading to a reduction in steel inventory [4][20]. Key Company Valuations - Notable companies in the precious metals sector include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold, with varying price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating differing market expectations [19]. - In the industrial metals sector, companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are highlighted for their growth potential, with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [19][20].