Macro Research - The recovery momentum in consumption is strong, but investment and production still require further policy support [2] - The A-share market is expected to welcome a "spring opening red" as policy expectations, liquidity, and fundamentals resonate positively [2] - The price signals indicate that industrial prosperity is beginning to emerge and continue [2] Strategy Research - The A-share market closed 2025 at 3968.84 points, with an annual increase of 18.41%, confirming the strategic judgment made by Guotai Junan [3] - The market is anticipated to stabilize and appreciate due to the upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve chairman and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026 [3][24] - The decision-makers have emphasized the need to "promote investment stabilization," indicating a potential increase in policy support for growth [3][24] Food and Beverage Research - Yanjing Beer shows strong reform momentum, with significant potential for national expansion of its U8 product line, expected to exceed 1.5 million tons in the future [3][8] - The company is expected to enhance its product structure and profitability through the expansion of high-priced products above 10 yuan [8][9] - The beer industry is stabilizing, with leading companies like Yanjing benefiting from structural upgrades and improved profit margins [8][9] Industry Comparison - The report highlights a favorable outlook for technology, non-bank financials, and consumer sectors, driven by the industrialization of emerging markets and the AI trend [6][27] - The technology sector is expected to benefit from global chip technology breakthroughs and rising storage prices, with domestic infrastructure shortages accelerating the pace of domestic production [6][27] - Non-bank financials are poised to gain from increased wealth management demand and capital market reforms, while cyclical stocks are seen as bottoming out and benefiting from domestic demand expansion [6][27]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the pig industry, with a title indicating a weakening trend in pigs on January 5, 2026 [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking - In terms of spot prices, the Henan spot price is 13,430 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 900 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 13,050 yuan/ton with a 400 - yuan/ton increase, and the Guangdong spot price is 13,160 yuan/ton with a 200 - yuan/ton increase [3] - For futures prices, the price of Live Pig 2603 is 11,795 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 5 yuan/ton, Live Pig 2605 is 12,165 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan/ton decrease, and Live Pig 2607 is 12,805 yuan/ton with a 5 - yuan/ton decrease [3] - Regarding trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of Live Pig 2603 is 82,347 lots, a decrease of 23,116 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 171,144 lots, a decrease of 1,202 lots; for Live Pig 2605, the trading volume is 24,226 lots, an increase of 696 lots, and the open interest is 90,813 lots, an increase of 2,111 lots; for Live Pig 2607, the trading volume is 4,496 lots, a decrease of 249 lots, and the open interest is 41,704 lots, an increase of 24 lots [3] - In terms of price spreads, the basis of Live Pig 2603 is 1,635 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 895 yuan/ton, Live Pig 2605 basis is 1,265 yuan/ton with a 910 - yuan/ton increase, and Live Pig 2607 basis is 625 yuan/ton with a 905 - yuan/ton increase; the spread between Live Pig 3 - 5 is - 370 yuan/ton with a 15 - yuan/ton increase, and the spread between Live Pig 5 - 7 is - 640 yuan/ton with a 5 - yuan/ton decrease [3] Group 3: Market Information - Yunnan Shennong registered 85 lots of warehouse receipts on December 4, Guizhou Fuyuan registered 23 lots on December 5, Dekang registered 225 lots on December 10 and 150 lots on December 11, Yangxiang registered 40 lots on December 10, COFCO registered 300 lots on December 15 and 150 lots on December 29, and Muyuan registered 40 lots on December 23 [4] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the pig industry is - 1, indicating a weak outlook as the range is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]

宏观与策略 宏观快评:12 月 PMI 数据解读-年末脉冲，助力收官 固定收益专题研究:2026 年 1 月转债市场研判及"十强转债"组合 策略深度:资配跨年展望(三)-龙头科技，强者恒强 总量专题（首席经济学家团队）:总量专题-26 年牛市的变与不变 行业与公司 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月05日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-31 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3968.84 | 13525.02 | 4629.93 | 14545.57 | 3911.49 | 1344.20 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.09 | -0.58 | -0.45 | -0.30 | -0.51 | -1.15 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 8295.11 | 12156.30 | 4444.91 | 4402.74 | 5436.91 | 492.84 | $\frac{10}{100}$$\frac ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in pork prices before the New Year, with the average price of lean pigs reaching 12.39 CNY/kg, a 7.6% increase from the previous week, although it remains 19.7% lower year-on-year [5][13][23] - The implementation of a safeguard policy for beef import quotas is expected to alleviate domestic supply pressures, with a total import quota of 2.688 million tons for 2026, which is 93.5% of the total imports in 2024 [14] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages in the livestock sector, particularly Wens Foodstuff and Muyuan Foods, while also highlighting potential turnaround candidates like Zhengbang Technology [5][13] Livestock Farming - The report notes that the pork market is under pressure due to significant losses in the industry, but the reduction in production capacity is expected to accelerate, leading to a more stable price environment in the first half of 2026 [5][13] - For poultry, the average price of white feather chickens is reported at 3.78 CNY/lb, down 3.1% week-on-week, while yellow feather chicken prices have shown slight increases, benefiting companies like Lihua and Wens [5][13][32] Dairy Industry - The current price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.03 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.2% year-on-year, indicating a balance in supply and demand as inventory levels decrease [14] - The safeguard measures on beef imports are anticipated to support domestic beef prices, which are expected to rise, enhancing the performance of companies like Yurun and Modern Farming [14] Feed and Animal Health - The report indicates a rebound in aquaculture prices due to holiday demand, with significant increases in white shrimp prices leading up to the New Year [15] - The feed industry is facing intense competition, but leading companies are expected to gain market share due to their cost advantages, especially in international markets [15] Agricultural Sector Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.7 percentage points, with livestock farming and feed sectors showing the highest gains of 1.4% and 0.5%, respectively [21] - The report tracks various agricultural product prices, noting fluctuations in corn and soybean meal prices, with corn prices rising by 0.6% to 2352 CNY/ton [23][46]

行 农林牧渔 2026 年 01 月 04 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《肥猪供给偏紧年前猪价上行，宠物 食品出口环比改善 —行业周报》- 2025.12.28 《年前猪价存在供需双重支撑，蛋鸡 存栏高位淘鸡延续 —行业周报》- 2025.12.21 《腌腊渐入旺季支撑猪价上行，犊牛 价格上行彰显牛周期景气—行业周 报》-2025.12.14 10 牛肉进口"国别配额及配额外加征关税"落地，利 多国内牛价 ——行业周报 chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 陈雪丽（分析师） 王高展（分析师） wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070003 周观察：牛肉进口"国别配额及配额外加征关税"落地，利多国内牛价 供需双驱驱动年前猪价中枢上移，据涌益咨询，截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，全国 生猪均价 12.78 元/公斤，周环比+1.20 元/公斤，同比-3.01 元/公斤。截至 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market dynamics that promote capacity reduction, leading to a potential price turning point in Q2 2026, with long-term performance improvements anticipated for related stocks [3][43] - The structural growth trend in the post-cycle sector continues, with profits likely to gradually transmit downstream if the current round of pig capacity reduction proceeds smoothly, benefiting the animal health sector [3] - The planting chain shows a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, indicating favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, highlighting significant investment opportunities [3] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth and price increase logic, with continuous recognition of domestic brands and sustained growth of leading companies [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs as of December 31 was 12.76 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 10.38%, while the average price of 15 kg piglets was 19.44 yuan/kg, up 2.21% week-on-week [12][51] - The supply side shows a widening price gap for fattened pigs, supporting price increases, while demand is boosted by consumption expectations during the New Year holiday [12][17] Poultry - The price of white feather broilers increased to 7.82 yuan/kg, up 6.39% week-on-week, and chick prices rose to 3.59 yuan/chick, up 1.7% week-on-week [17][51] - The supply of meat chickens has increased, leading to a more relaxed market supply, while demand has weakened due to some slaughterhouses reducing operations [17] Feed Sector - The prices of corn, wheat, and soybean meal have risen, with corn averaging 2351.57 yuan/ton, up 0.57% week-on-week, and soybean meal at 3172.29 yuan/ton, up 0.96% week-on-week [27][51] - Increased selling enthusiasm among farmers is noted, although the pace of supply remains slow [27] Major Agricultural Products - The domestic natural rubber futures price was 15605 yuan/ton as of December 31, down 0.29% week-on-week, with inventory levels increasing [38][51] - The current down cycle for sugar prices continues, with no significant recovery expected [39]

Group 1: Strategy Observation - The report highlights that prices of cyclical resources are rising, driven by supply constraints and strong downstream demand in sectors like basic chemicals, new energy materials, and industrial metals [3] - The AI industry trend continues, with domestic electronic industry demand significantly boosted, leading to an increase in storage prices and sustained high growth in PCB exports [3][4] - Service consumption shows marginal improvement, with tourism in Hainan experiencing a price index increase due to travel demand, and pig prices stabilizing and rising towards the year-end [3] Group 2: Industry Tracking - Electronics - Mini LED technology is entering a rapid development phase, with increasing penetration in mid-to-high-end TV markets and expanding into lower-end markets and automotive applications [17] - The report anticipates that by 2025, Mini LED TV shipments in China will reach 9.23 million units, a year-on-year increase of 122%, with a penetration rate exceeding 25% [20] Group 3: Industry Monthly Report - Aviation - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to turn profitable in 2026, driven by a recovery in public and business demand, with significant growth in passenger traffic projected for 2025 [21][30] - The report suggests that the upcoming New Year holiday will see strong travel demand, with expectations for improved pricing and passenger volume [33] Group 4: Industry Deep Dive - Cultural Communication - The report emphasizes the ongoing progress of native large model companies in Hong Kong, highlighting the potential investment opportunities arising from the commercialization of AI technology [35] - Companies involved in AI algorithms and applications are recommended, including Meitu and Zhejiang Shuju, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the AI trend [35][36] Group 5: Industry Tracking - Automotive - The report notes the continuation of the "old-for-new" policy for automobiles in 2026, which includes subsidies for scrapping and replacing vehicles, aimed at boosting consumption [46][48] - The policy supports consumers who scrap their vehicles and purchase new energy or low-emission vehicles, with specific subsidy percentages outlined [49]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 33.58 CNY [6][12]. Core Insights - The company maintains a leading position in breeding costs, with a projected continuous growth in pig sales volume. The company's low debt ratio and high cash flow security are highlighted [2][12]. - The report indicates that the company's breeding cost as of October 2025 is 12.2 CNY/kg, which remains industry-leading. It is expected that breeding costs will continue to decline in 2026 [12]. - The company sold approximately 300,000 pigs in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 32%. The company aims to reach a target of 5 million pigs sold [12]. - The company's debt ratio is low, with asset-liability ratios of 26.41%, 27.39%, and 27.07% for 2023 to Q3 2025, indicating a stable financial position [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3,891 million CNY in 2023 to 7,469 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.8% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from a loss of 401 million CNY in 2023 to a profit of 978 million CNY in 2027 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from -0.76 CNY in 2023 to 1.86 CNY in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from -9.6% in 2023 to 15.1% in 2027 [4]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 15,454 million CNY, with a total share capital of 525 million shares [7]. - The stock price has fluctuated between 24.81 CNY and 35.70 CNY over the past 52 weeks [7]. - The current price of the stock is 29.45 CNY [12].

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes a structural transformation in the capital market, focusing on rebuilding confidence and addressing external demand pessimism [3][4] - The investment logic suggests a shift from cyclical growth to cyclical value, with a resilient cycle expected in 2026, highlighting the value attributes of leading companies [9] - Key assumptions include a gradual decrease in the breeding sow inventory and proactive capacity control by pig companies, which may lead to reduced supply pressure and potential price recovery for pigs in 2026 [8] Group 2 - The report identifies specific companies to focus on, such as leading low-cost and high-certainty firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as high-growth smaller pig companies [7] - The report outlines potential risks, including the possibility of breeding sow inventory not decreasing as expected, which could lead to an oversupply of pigs and downward pressure on prices [8] - The report also discusses the beef market, indicating that if the import impact continues, it could lead to downward pressure on beef prices, affecting the profitability of beef companies [16][24] Group 3 - In the poultry sector, the report highlights that the yellow chicken market may see price increases if breeding stocks continue to decline, while the white chicken market is expected to recover as macroeconomic activities improve [25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand in the poultry market, noting that weak demand could lead to price declines and pressure on company performance [27][32] - The report suggests that the animal health sector will benefit from the recovery of livestock profitability, with a focus on companies that have strong R&D capabilities and product pipelines [33][36] Group 4 - The grain sector is expected to see upward price trends due to adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields, with a focus on companies involved in seed production and transgenic varieties [40][41] - The report warns of potential risks in the seed industry, including weak demand for new varieties, which could lead to price declines and increased pressure on seed companies [44][45] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring government policies regarding the commercialization of new seed varieties, as delays could impact market expectations [46][48] Group 5 - The report provides a risk assessment for recommended stocks, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, indicating potential risks related to pig output and price declines [50][56] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous monitoring of key indicators, such as breeding sow inventory and market prices, to assess the performance of the companies in the livestock sector [56]

Core Viewpoint - The aquaculture sector experienced a rise of 1.15% on December 30, with Jingji Zhino leading the gains, while the overall market showed mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3965.12, unchanged, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13604.07, up by 0.49% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Jingji Zhino (000048) closed at 17.23, up by 5.90%, with a trading volume of 453,500 shares and a transaction value of 766 million yuan [1]. - Other notable performers included: - Shennong Group (605296) at 29.45, up by 2.08% [1]. - Muyuan Foods (002714) at 50.89, up by 1.98% [1]. - Lihua Co. (300761) at 20.78, up by 1.27% [1]. - Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) at 17.12, up by 1.18% [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The aquaculture sector saw a net outflow of 21.95 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 153 million yuan [2]. - The capital flow for key stocks included: - Muyuan Foods (002714) had a net inflow of 1.29 billion yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 104 million yuan from retail investors [3]. - Jingji Zhino (000048) experienced a net inflow of 32.34 million yuan from institutional investors and a net inflow of 43.92 million yuan from retail investors [3]. - New Hope (000876) had a net inflow of 11.87 million yuan from institutional investors [3].