广州期货认为，当下驱动铜价上涨逻辑有所松动，但铜矿供应脆弱+新兴领域带来的刚性需求，以及战 略资源属性愈发强化，铜价底部依旧坚实，调整空间相对有限，倾向于震荡蓄势后延续涨势。 铜业股午前集体走强，截至发稿，中国有色矿业(01258)涨12.02%，报16.68港元；五矿资源(01208)涨 11.02%，报5.05港元；中国黄金（600916）国际(02099)涨7.25%，报233.6港元；紫金矿业（601899） (02899)涨5.05%，报42.46港元；江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)涨4.07%，报47.06港元。 消息面上，正信期货表示，宏观预期情绪有所降温，但地缘担忧仍存，尽管美国政府持续施压美联储， 但市场对于降息定价较为保守，同时通胀数据暂未超预期，失业率回落，美国自身经济韧性仍存。产业 端来看，虽然远期的供需预期暂难证伪，但近段弱现实特征延续，全球库存进一步增加至100万吨。铜 价在10万关口调整后再度反弹，主要还是受地缘以及金价指引，价格高位震荡为主。 ...

当国际金价距离5000美元/盎司仅一步之遥，当伦敦银现仅用两个月时间便实现翻倍，当铜铝铅锌锡上 演起"元素周期表"行情，当硫磺价格一年翻倍、碳酸锂迭创新高……这一系列看似独立的市场脉冲正汇 聚成一股时代洪流，宣告着全球大宗商品市场正迈入新一轮的"超级周期"。 "这轮周期的持续强度、持续时间都可能远超我们想象。"近期，多位基金经理向券商中国记者表达了类 似的观点，在全球货币超发、美元信用危机、技术革命创新需求、地缘冲突引发供应链重构等众多因素 共振下，全球大宗商品可能迎来一场远超市场预期的周期浪潮，而嗅觉敏锐的公募基金正闻风而动，将 投资罗盘的指针拨向现代工业的"血液"与"基石"——有色金属与基础化工，不仅定位着这场全球商品盛 宴的历史坐标，更寻找着浪潮之下具体的产业掘金路径。 全球大宗商品迎来第三轮"超级周期" 其四，长达十年的资本开支收缩期后的供给约束。上述基金经理指出，全球有色金属主要品种的资本开 支在2011年见顶后，步入了漫长的收缩期。勘探投入持续低迷，叠加全球矿山品位的自然下降，导致主 要金属品种的产出缺口日益明显。供给端的约束，是本轮周期最具刚性的一环。 "目前我们处于过往60年以来第三轮全球商品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is entering a new "super cycle," driven by factors such as excessive monetary issuance, a credit crisis in the US dollar, technological innovations, and geopolitical conflicts reshaping supply chains [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Driving the Super Cycle - The current super cycle is rooted in global monetary overissuance, particularly since the 2008 financial crisis and accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to significant inflation and asset price increases [2]. - Four key factors are contributing to this cycle: the US debt cycle and the restructuring of dollar credit, structural demand driven by AI and green energy transitions, geopolitical changes affecting supply chain security, and supply constraints following a decade of reduced capital expenditure in the mining sector [3][4][5]. Group 2: Domestic Price Trends and Economic Policies - China's Producer Price Index (PPI) is showing signs of recovery, with a 0.2% month-on-month increase in December 2025, indicating a potential turning point for domestic prices [6]. - Three core factors are expected to drive this price recovery: a strong base effect from previous low commodity prices, the impact of "anti-involution" policies aimed at improving industry profitability, and stabilization in the real estate sector after years of decline [7][8]. Group 3: Strategic Asset Allocation - Fund managers are increasingly reallocating towards cyclical assets, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and chemical sectors, as they anticipate a recovery in commodity prices and domestic economic conditions [9][10]. - Notable investments include significant positions in leading mining companies and a strategic focus on industrial metals and small metals, which are expected to benefit from new demand drivers such as AI infrastructure and energy transitions [11][12].

Market Overview - Gold prices are nearing the $5000 mark, with spot gold closing at $4986.13 per ounce, up 1.04% [3][8] - Silver has entered the "three-digit" era, closing at $100.23 per ounce, a significant increase of 7.34% [3][8] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.84%, closing at 97.46, marking the largest weekly decline since June of the previous year [3][8] Oil Prices - International oil prices have rebounded due to increased sanctions on Iranian oil shipments by the U.S. government, with WTI crude oil closing at $61.39 per barrel, up 2.81%, and Brent crude at $66.08 per barrel, up 2.72% [4][8] Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.58%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose slightly by 0.03% and 0.28% respectively [4][8] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed up 0.45% at 26749.51 points, with significant trading activity in the commercial aerospace and precious metals sectors [5][8] - A-shares also experienced gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.33% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.79%, driven by strong performances in the photovoltaic equipment sector [6][8] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has taken strict actions against illegal activities related to Rui Feng Da, indicating a tightening regulatory environment [3][17] - There are rumors regarding tightened listing requirements for companies going public in Hong Kong, which have been denied, confirming that there are no changes to the overseas listing policies [3][17]

当国际金价距离5000美元/盎司仅一步之遥，当伦敦银现仅用两个月时间便实现翻倍，当铜铝铅锌锡上 演"元素周期表"行情，当硫磺价格一年翻倍、碳酸锂价格迭创新高……这一系列看似独立的市场脉冲， 正汇聚成一股时代洪流，预示着全球大宗商品市场正迈入新一轮超级周期。 "这轮周期的持续强度和时间，可能远超我们想象。"近日，多位基金经理向证券时报记者表达了类似的 观点。在全球货币超发、美元信用危机、技术革命创新需求、地缘冲突引发供应链重构等众多因素共振 下，全球大宗商品可能迎来一场远超市场预期的周期浪潮，而嗅觉敏锐的公募基金正闻风而动，将投资 罗盘的指针拨向现代工业的"血液"与"基石"——有色金属和基础化工，在定位这场全球商品盛宴历史坐 标的同时，也寻找着浪潮之下具体的产业掘金路径。 大宗商品迎来第三轮超级周期 历史从不简单重复，但总是押着相同的韵脚。 回溯百年，大宗商品的超级周期往往与全球经济格局的剧变、技术革命的浪潮以及货币体系的重构紧密 相连。如今，我们再次站在一个多重历史因素交汇的十字路口。 "本轮超级商品周期的根源，可以追溯到全球性的货币超发。"汇添富基金权益投资总监王栩指出，自 2008年次贷危机之后，现代货币 ...

当国际金价距离5000美元/盎司仅一步之遥，当伦敦银现仅用两个月时间便实现翻倍，当铜铝铅锌锡上 演"元素周期表"行情，当硫磺价格一年翻倍、碳酸锂价格迭创新高……这一系列看似独立的市场脉冲， 正汇聚成一股时代洪流，预示着全球大宗商品市场正迈入新一轮超级周期。 "这轮周期的持续强度和时间，可能远超我们想象。"近日，多位基金经理向证券时报记者表达了类似的 观点。在全球货币超发、美元信用危机、技术革命创新需求、地缘冲突引发供应链重构等众多因素共振 下，全球大宗商品可能迎来一场远超市场预期的周期浪潮，而嗅觉敏锐的公募基金正闻风而动，将投资 罗盘的指针拨向现代工业的"血液"与"基石"——有色金属和基础化工，在定位这场全球商品盛宴历史坐 标的同时，也寻找着浪潮之下具体的产业掘金路径。 大宗商品迎来第三轮超级周期 历史从不简单重复，但总是押着相同的韵脚。 回溯百年，大宗商品的超级周期往往与全球经济格局的剧变、技术革命的浪潮以及货币体系的重构紧密 相连。如今，我们再次站在一个多重历史因素交汇的十字路口。 "2026年，非常有希望成为物价走势变局之年。"万家基金权益投资部基金经理叶勇直言，这可能触发市 场风格的重大切换，其信心主 ...

Group 1: Institutional Movements - The non-ferrous metal sector is becoming a focal point for both fund companies and investors, with public funds significantly increasing their positions in this industry by Q4 2025 [1][2] - The allocation ratio of non-ferrous metals in actively managed equity funds has notably increased, rising by 2.3 percentage points compared to the end of Q3 2025, driven by strong demand and favorable liquidity conditions [2] - Major funds are concentrating their holdings in strategic metals such as gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony, with specific funds optimizing their stock selections [2] Group 2: ETF Inflows - A substantial amount of capital is flowing into non-ferrous metal ETFs, with a net subscription of nearly 20 billion yuan in Q4 2025 alone [3] - The total scale of non-ferrous metal theme ETFs has surpassed 100 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in this sector [4] Group 3: New Product Launches - There has been a surge in the issuance of new non-ferrous metal-themed ETFs, with four new products currently in the pipeline as of January 23 [4] - The mining companies within the non-ferrous metal sector are expected to benefit significantly from rising metal prices, as their revenues are closely linked to the spot prices of metals like copper, lithium, and zinc [4] Group 4: Long-term Investment Outlook - The long-term investment logic for the non-ferrous metal mining sector is being reinforced due to tightening supply and demand dynamics, alongside a favorable macroeconomic environment [4] - Despite recent price corrections, the overall bullish outlook on resource commodities remains intact, with expectations for long-term investment returns in the non-ferrous sector [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations amidst inventory accumulation, with short-term price adjustments expected to be limited due to the financial attributes of copper supported by rising gold prices. The supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage in the medium to long term, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions. The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that both alumina and aluminum prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels. The short-term outlook for aluminum prices is expected to remain stable amidst high demand, particularly in the air conditioning and consumer goods sectors [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with lithium carbonate prices entering an upward cycle driven by supply-demand reversal. The report recommends focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in lithium resources [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply, with the report suggesting companies like Huayou Cobalt and others for investment [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. core PCE price index and unemployment claims, which align with expectations [9] - Key announcements include Zijin Mining's completion of the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, significantly increasing its production capacity [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 6.03% compared to the index's 0.84% rise [11] - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the sector, highlighting significant movements in various sub-sectors [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 33.82, with a change of 1.79, while the PB is 4.18, reflecting a significant premium over the broader market [20][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in commodity prices, particularly in precious metals like gold and silver, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [8][67]. - Industrial metals are expected to see price stability due to improved domestic demand and production adjustments, despite some fluctuations in inventory levels [21][24]. - The energy metals sector, particularly cobalt and nickel, is facing supply constraints, which may lead to price increases in the near future [83]. Industry and Company Performance - The SW Nonferrous Index rose by 6.03% during the week of January 19-23, with precious metals like gold and silver increasing by 8.30% and 14.80%, respectively [8]. - Key companies such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are projected to have strong earnings growth, with EPS estimates for 2024 at 1.21 and 0.63 yuan, respectively [2]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Shengtu Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Western Mining, based on their strong market positions and growth potential [8]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels, with LME aluminum prices recorded at $3,174 per ton, reflecting a 1.44% increase [13][24]. - Copper prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors, with current prices at $13,128.5 per ton, showing a 2.50% increase [13][38]. - Zinc prices have shown volatility, with LME zinc prices at $3,246.5 per ton, reflecting a 1.17% increase, driven by supply disruptions [43][44]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have surged due to heightened geopolitical risks, with gold trading at approximately 4,983.10 USD per ounce, an increase of 8.30% [15][67]. - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [67]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to ongoing supply shortages, with current prices around 432,500 yuan per ton [83]. - Nickel prices are projected to remain high due to production cuts in Indonesia, with current prices at 148,010 yuan per ton [55].

通过所选区间该基金净值增长率分位图，可以观察该基金与同类基金业绩比较情况。图为坐标原点到区间内某时点的净值增长率在同类基金中的分位数。 AI基金工银核心机遇混合A（013341）披露2025年四季报，第四季度基金利润6026.45万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.1347元。报告期内，基金净值增长 率为14.38%，截至四季度末，基金规模为4.45亿元。 该基金属于偏股混合型基金。截至1月22日，单位净值为1.231元。基金经理是母亚乾，目前管理的4只基金近一年均为正收益。其中，截至1月22日，工银核 心机遇混合A近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达97.58%；工银行业优选混合A最低，为34.55%。 基金管理人在四季报中表示，本基金后续将继续聚焦上游资源和大周期板块，以基本面为锚，力争选择行业景气趋势向好、供给格局稳定的行业进行配置， 同时结合自下而上的精选个股的策略，长期持有估值相对合理、资源禀赋较优秀、管理能力较突出、股东回报意识较强的优质企业。 截至1月22日，工银核心机遇混合A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为31.80%，位于同类可比基金3/621；近半年复权单位净值增长率为62.91%，位于同类可比 基 ...