化工板块今日（1月26日）震荡盘整。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）早盘两度冲高，场 内价格涨幅一度达到1.32%，午后震荡走弱，最终平盘报收。值得注意的是，化工ETF（516020）全天 多数时间溢价交易，收盘溢价率更是高达0.6%，反映买盘资金较为强势。 成份股方面，磷化工、钛白粉、石化等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至收盘，云天化大涨3.56%，卫星化 学、兴发集团双双涨超2%，钛能化学、东方盛虹、新洋丰等多股涨超1%。 值得注意的是，化工板块场内热门布局工具化工ETF（516020）近日吸金不断。交易所数据显示，截至 上个交易日（1月23日），化工ETF（516020）近5个交易日累计获资金净申购额超过11亿元；近20个交 易日累计获资金净申购额更是超过24亿元。 有分析指出，宏观上化工行业已迎来重大拐点。（1）双碳政策为化工行业的产能设立长期天花板。 （2）世界局势变化，化工行业有望再定价。（3）下游需求回暖。海外降息周期打开，国内PPI同比增 速下半年有望转正，行业盈利或将从上游原材料扩散至中游。 风险提示：化工ETF被动跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，该指数基日为2004.12.31，发 ...

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry is currently at the bottom of a four-year down cycle, with a potential reversal expected in 2026 due to supply-side capacity reduction and expanded domestic demand policies [2] - Capital expenditure has experienced negative growth for seven consecutive quarters since Q4 2023, reinforcing the logic of a cycle reversal [2] - The industry is witnessing structural differentiation, with the aromatics sector experiencing strong growth due to maintenance and pre-holiday inventory demand, while oil products are underperforming due to high refinery production and seasonal logistics challenges [2] Group 2 - Ping An Securities indicates that the chemical industry is transitioning from the bottom of the previous price cycle to the start of a new cycle, with inventory dynamics shifting from passive destocking to active restocking [3] - The industrial product PPI and chemical raw material PPIRM have shown signs of rebound, suggesting that the price decline and destocking cycle is nearing its end [3] - The traditional refining sector is entering a phase of "controlling scale, adjusting structure, and promoting transformation," with small and outdated refineries being gradually eliminated [3] Group 3 - The petrochemical ETF (159731) closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, consisting of stocks from the petrochemical sector, reflecting the overall performance of these companies [3] - The ETF has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10% annually, providing investors with opportunities to invest in the sector [4]

化工ETF紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，中证细分产业主题指数系列由细分有色、细分机械等7 条指数组成，分别从相关细分产业中选取规模较大、流动性较好的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映 相关细分产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 化工板块逆市吸金，化工ETF(159870)盘中净申购11.13亿份，冲刺连续18天净流入。 机构指出，宏观上化工行业已迎来重大拐点。1)双碳政策为化工行业的产能设立长期天花板。未来产能 将有指标化趋势，化工行业盈利周期将被拉长。2)世界局势变化，化工行业有望再定价。我国化工多个 子行业全球市占率已超50%，出口持续高增，中国化工产能在全球或具备稀缺性。且我国化工企业经营 思路或从"抢份额"向"增厚利润"转变，未来化工行业有望再定价。3)下游需求回暖。海外降息周期打 开，国内PPI同比增速下半年有望转正，行业盈利将从上游原材料扩散至中游，且化工行业多个子行业 连续亏损3年以上，涨价意愿强烈，价格上涨弹性或超预期。 截至2026年1月26日 13:53，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)成分股方面涨跌互现，云天化领涨 4.01%，卫星化学上涨3.25%，东方盛虹上涨2.73%；广东宏大 ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 对二甲苯：单边趋势偏强 PTA：单边趋势偏强 MEG：单边趋势偏强 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 来源：CCF，同花顺 iFinD，S&P Global，国泰君安期货研究 PX：23 日尾盘石脑油价格仍然僵持，2 月 MOPJ 目前估价在 561 美元/吨 CFR 附近；PX 价格上涨，一 单 3 月现货在 921 成交，尾盘 3 月在 919/928 商谈，4 月在 925/942 商谈，3/4 在-6/0 商谈，1 月 23 日 PX 收 在 923 美元/吨 CFR，较昨日上涨 16 美元/吨。1 月 23 日市场现货商谈尚可，浮动价格 3 月在-6 附近有成交， 4 月在-3~-4 附近成交商谈。 Platts 公司于 1 月 23 日评估亚洲对二甲苯 CFR Unv1/中国和 FOB 韩国标志分别为 922.67 美元/公吨和 901.67 美元/吨，均较日上涨 16 美元/吨。 Platts 的数据显示，这些价格是自 2024 年 10 月 7 日以来的最高水平，当时评估价为每吨 928 美元。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share chemical sector continues to rise, with active performance in sub-sectors, led by Hongbaoli (a leader in polyurethane and fine chemicals) and Meibang Technology, which saw a gain of over 9% [1] - Key stocks such as Hongqiang Co., Wanhua Chemical, and Satellite Chemical also experienced gains, creating a pattern of leading stocks driving the market and a coordinated response from other companies [1] - The market is buoyed by rising product prices and favorable policies, leading to increased investment interest and active trading within the sector, highlighting a high-growth structural market [1] Group 2 - Five departments are jointly promoting the construction of zero-carbon factories, expanding this initiative to the chemical industry and promoting green transformation plans, which benefits green chemical enterprises [2] - Multiple chemical product prices have increased, with pure benzene and polypropylene rising by 2.8%-4.4% year-on-year, and lithium iron phosphate increasing by 8.4%, directly restoring industry profit margins [2] - Local governments are intensifying efforts for the transformation of the chemical industry, with Uihai City releasing a "three transformations" plan for 2026-2028 to promote intelligent and green transformation, aligning with growth stabilization requirements [2] Group 3 - The new energy materials sector is positively impacted by an 8.4% increase in lithium iron phosphate prices, alongside explosive demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, indicating a potential for volume and price growth for chemical companies in this field [3] - The textile and apparel sector benefits from a 2.2% rise in polyester filament prices, with recovering end-consumer demand driving raw material needs and significant recovery potential in industry profit margins [3] - The plastic packaging sector sees a rebound in polyethylene and polypropylene prices, coupled with downstream consumption recovery and growth in overseas orders, leading to an expansion of market share for leading companies and increased demand for upstream chemical raw materials [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [67]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price fluctuations in the chemical sector due to extreme weather conditions affecting natural gas prices in the U.S. [1]. - The average prices for various chemical products, including pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI, have shown a decline compared to the previous week, with respective price changes of -129, -114, and -213 CNY/ton [2]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of profit margins across different segments, indicating a decrease in margins for pure MDI and polymer MDI, while TDI margins remained relatively stable [2]. Summary by Sections 2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trends - The basic chemical index has shown a weekly increase of 7.3% as of January 23, 2026, with a year-to-date increase of 16.8% [8]. 2.2 Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are reported at 17,714, 13,900, and 13,975 CNY/ton respectively, with corresponding profit margins of 4,503, 1,689, and 2,459 CNY/ton [2][16]. 2.3 Oil, Coal, and Olefin Sector - Ethane and propane prices have increased by 210 and 21 CNY/ton respectively, while the average price for coal remains stable at 520 CNY/ton [2][22]. - The average price for polyethylene is reported at 7,100 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 15 CNY/ton [2][28]. 2.4 Coal Chemical Sector - The average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,211, 1,740, 3,894, and 2,600 CNY/ton respectively, with minor fluctuations in profit margins [2][41]. 2.5 Animal Nutrition Sector - The average prices for VA, VE, solid egg, and liquid egg are reported at 62.2, 54.5, 17.6, and 14.2 CNY/kg respectively, with minimal changes observed [2][54].

Core Insights - Lianyungang is advancing its industrial development during the 14th Five-Year Plan, achieving significant growth in industrial output and value-added production, with an annual growth rate of 11.6%, leading the province [1] Group 1: Industrial Development - The city's industrial output value has crossed three trillion yuan thresholds, with a target of exceeding 600 billion yuan in industrial output for the current year [2] - The green petrochemical industry cluster has rapidly emerged, with projects like Shenghong Refining and Satellite Chemical's comprehensive utilization of light hydrocarbons fully operational [1][2] - The bio-pharmaceutical sector has been recognized as a national advanced manufacturing cluster, contributing 16 new Class 1 drugs and ranking fifth among national bio-pharmaceutical parks [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Energy - The construction of the Tianwan Nuclear Power Plant's Units 7 and 8 has commenced, with a total investment of 72 billion yuan for the Xuwei nuclear energy heating power plant project, which has been approved by the State Council [1] - The first industrial-use nuclear heating project in the country has been put into operation [1] Group 3: Innovation and Technology - Lianyungang aims to stimulate innovation and cultivate new productive forces, focusing on high-end manufacturing and the development of a trillion-level green petrochemical industry cluster [2] - The city plans to enhance its bio-pharmaceutical public technology service platform and accelerate the intelligent, green, and integrated transformation of industries such as steel metallurgy and shipbuilding [2] - The city is also targeting the semiconductor sector by supporting the silicon industry’s extension into this field [2]

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2026年1月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：趋势仍偏强 | 供应 | PX国产装置变化不大，浙石化装置降负荷，1成左右预计2-3周时间，福佳大化12月扩能30万吨，总体开工率88.9%（-0.5%）。海外装置方 面，韩国GS55万吨装置重启、台塑装置负荷提升，科威特82万吨装置检修。亚洲装置开工率80.6%（-0.4%）。 进口方面，内外价差再次打开，一季度进口单月提升至90万吨左右。PX进入累库格局。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | PTA加工费修复，本周PTA装置开工率维持在76.9%。本周逸盛新材料360万吨和英力士125万吨装置兑现检修计划，独山能源300万吨装置 1.14附近重启，其250万吨装置计划本月底前停车，能投100万吨装置计划1月20日附近重启。 | | 观点 | 节前单边趋势偏强。3-5反套，5-9正 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [4]. Core Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil supply forecasts, with the EIA predicting a global surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day for this year [6][16]. - The EIA has adjusted its 2026 oil price forecast upward to an average of $56 per barrel, while lowering the natural gas price forecast to $3.46 per million British thermal units [7][11]. - The IEA expects a demand increase of 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, while OPEC and EIA have slightly reduced their demand forecasts [11][16]. Supply and Demand Summary - The EIA has raised its global oil supply forecast for this year by 120,000 barrels per day, while the IEA has increased its forecast by 100,000 barrels per day [13][16]. - The EIA anticipates that global oil production will rise by 1.37 million barrels per day in 2026, with OPEC+ contributing approximately 1.13 million barrels per day [15][16]. - The IEA projects a global oil supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 108.7 million barrels per day [16]. Price Trends Summary - The price of butadiene has surged over 28% since the beginning of the year, driven by a narrowing price spread between naphtha and ethylene [17]. - As of January 23, the spot price of butadiene reached 10,700 yuan per ton [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to tightening supply and improving market conditions [21]. - It suggests monitoring major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as refining margins are expected to improve [21]. - The report also highlights the potential of offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering, given the high capital expenditure in offshore exploration [21].

生意社01月25日讯 交易商 品牌/产地 交货地 最新报价 二乙醇胺 国标 215KG/桶 济南琦创新材料有限公司 卫星化学 山东省 6000元/吨 二乙醇胺 国标 225KG/桶 山东金生润化工有限公司 6500元/吨 (文章来源：生意社) 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 斯尔邦 山东省/济南市 6500元/吨 二乙醇胺 国标 225KG/桶 山东金生润化工有限公司 卫星化学 山东省/济南市 ...