股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.09 权益市场火热，居民边际配置权益资产 投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Industry] 2025 年 12 月财富管理月报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 张轩铭(分析师) | 021-38038437 | zhangxuanming@gtht.com | S0880526020001 | | 吴浩东(分析师) | 010-83939780 | wuhaodong@gtht.com | S0880524070001 | 本报告导读： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 投资银行业与经纪业《业绩基准新规落地，助推 行业长期发展》2026.01.24 投资银行业与经纪业《零售及自营业务驱动全年 高增》2026.01.20 投资银行业与经纪业《完善监管制度，打开稳步 发展长期空间 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened with mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component up 0.12%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.32% [1] - AI application stocks continued to show strength, with companies like Rongxin Culture and Zhangyue Technology achieving consecutive gains [1] - Computing power concept stocks also rose, with Dawi Technology achieving consecutive gains and TeFa Information hitting the daily limit [1] - The commercial aerospace new stock, Electric Science Blue Sky, surged 750% on its first trading day, approaching a market value of 140 billion [1] Sector Performance AI Application Sector - The AI application and video generation sectors opened strongly, with companies like Zhongwen Online and Fengyuzhu nearing daily limits, and Bona Film and Vision China also opening high [2] - Notable stocks in the AI application sector included Yongxin Zhicheng, which rose 5.76%, and Yuntian Lifi, which increased by 4.32% [3] Computing Power Sector - The computing power sector saw initial gains, with stocks like Dawi Technology and TeFa Information performing well [4] - Key stocks in this sector included Yakang Co., which rose 13.35%, and TeFa Information, which increased by 10.03% [5] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities indicated that the market is likely to experience a period of consolidation before the Spring Festival, with a moderate short-term bullish sentiment [7] - Guoxin Securities suggested that the current spring market may still have room for further development, with a short-term strategy of holding stocks during the holiday being relatively favorable [8] - Dongwu Securities noted that the week before the festival is often the best window for index positioning, with historical trends indicating a rebound around this time [9]

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研究报告称，当前美债市场处于数据韧性、财政忧虑与地缘风险的多 重博弈中，建议采取"短久期核心+陡峭化卫星"配置，核心持仓聚焦3-5年期投资级债券，获取相对稳健 票息收益抵御短期波动，同时严控10年期以上美债敞口，规避财政扩张引致的长端利率上行风险。 从近期走势来看美元指数(DXY)本周基本持平，从上周低点反弹了约1.6%，但在过去12个月中仍下跌了 近10%，整体弱势格局未变。在公司债市场，衡量风险的信用利差已从近期的低点有所上升，表明风险 定价更为谨慎，但相比一年来的高点仍处于更健康水平，反映出市场情绪虽有所降温，却远未到恐慌的 程度。 市场焦点转向本周即将公布的CPI与非农就业数据 美国1月ISM数据显示，制造业与服务业景气度同步回升，经济动能明显改善 本周金融市场聚焦推迟发布的1月非农和CPI数据。非农就业市场预计新增6万人(前值5万)，失业率预计 将持稳4.4%，但上周公布的ADP就业数据仅新增2.2万个岗位，远低于预期，显示劳动力市场仍处"低招 聘、低裁员"的停滞状态。此外，本次非农报告将包含年度就业数据修正，若历史数据下修，可能进一 步影响市场对美联储政策的预期。C ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong IPO market is undergoing a significant structural adjustment due to increased global capital market volatility and macroeconomic influences, with a clear trend towards "value-driven" transformation in the market [2] - Despite the overall market pressure, sectors such as biotechnology, high-end manufacturing, and new consumption are showing resilience, indicating active listing activity [2][4] - The total amount raised from IPOs in Hong Kong is projected to exceed HKD 280 billion in 2025, with a 251% increase in equity financing scale, and over 300 companies currently in the IPO queue [2] Group 2 - The valuation system in the Hong Kong market is undergoing correction, with a rational return to pricing for previously high-growth but unprofitable companies, leading to a more prudent valuation management before IPO submissions [5][6] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's listing system reforms since 2018 continue to provide structural support, particularly benefiting companies in AI, advanced hardware, and green technology [6] - The normalization of the China Securities Regulatory Commission's overseas listing filing management provides clearer compliance expectations for companies, enhancing Hong Kong's attractiveness as an international financing center for new economy enterprises [6] Group 3 - Investment banks are shifting from a channel-based model focused on relationships and execution speed to a comprehensive service model centered on value discovery, shaping, and realization [6][8] - Industry specialization is becoming a core competitive advantage for investment banks, requiring teams to deeply understand the technical barriers, business models, and market positions of companies [7] - The demand for integrated capital service capabilities, including private financing, IPO guidance, and post-listing research support, is increasing among clients [8] Group 4 - In a buyer's market, the strength of an investment bank's sales network is crucial for the success of an IPO, necessitating a broad coverage of international long-term funds and the ability to engage with investors who understand long-term value [9] - The ongoing deepening of the interconnection between mainland and Hong Kong capital markets reinforces Hong Kong's position as a "pricing center for Chinese assets" and a "bridgehead for international capital investing in China" [9][10] - The long-term strategic value of the market remains intact despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance for companies to solidify their business foundations and choose partners that understand their value [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the synchronized demand for domestic power equipment, with both internal and external markets showing positive trends [1] - Domestic demand for power equipment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is experiencing a resonance in market conditions, with strong demand for transformers and switchgear [1] - The pace of ultra-high voltage (UHV) project advancement is slightly below expectations, while flexible direct current (DC) applications are reaching a turning point [1] Group 2 - The price of electric meters continues to decline, but the implementation of new standards in 2025 is expected to drive a price recovery [1] - The external market is projected to see a significant slowdown in demand growth for power generation by 2025, while demand on the consumption side remains relatively weak [1] - With the increase in AI server power, the AIDC power supply and distribution method is expected to evolve along the UPS-HVDC-SST path, with the global AIDC power equipment market projected to exceed 410 billion yuan by 2030 [1] Group 3 - The State Grid's fixed asset investment for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, representing a 40% increase compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan," indicating a continuous record high in grid investment [1] - The Carbon Neutrality 50 ETF (159861) tracks the Environmental Protection 50 Index (930614), which selects 50 companies from the Chinese A-share market that excel in environmental protection, clean energy, and energy-saving technologies [1] - The index covers various sub-industries, including water treatment, air pollution control, solid waste management, and renewable energy, reflecting a focus on environmentally friendly enterprises [1]

国信证券主要观点如下： 1月油价回顾 2026年1月布伦特原油期货均价为64.7美元/桶，环比上涨3.1美元/桶，月末收于70.7美元/桶;WTI原油期 货均价60.2美元/桶，环比上涨2.4美元/桶，月末收于65.2美元/桶。1月上旬，美国对委内瑞拉实施制 裁，并抓捕马杜罗总统夫妇，委内瑞拉向美国移交数千万桶原油增加石油供应，国际油价震荡下跌;1月 中上旬，伊朗爆发抗议活动，且美国可能对伊朗采取军事行动，引发对伊朗出口可能减少的担忧，国际 油价大幅上涨;1月中下旬，哈萨克斯坦油田暂时停产，但特朗普对欧洲八国加征关税，油价窄幅震荡;1 月下旬，美国对伊朗实施新制裁，特朗普重新发动军事威胁，极寒天气天然气价格暴涨，油价宽幅上 涨。 供给端 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2026年1月布伦特原油期货及WTI原油期货均价环比上涨。 供给端看，OPEC+决定2026年3月继续暂停增产。需求端，国际主要能源机构预计2026年原油需求增长 93-130万桶/天，预计2027年原油需求增长129-134万桶/天。政策推动下，该行预计国内炼油炼化行业供 给侧将得到有力优化。此外，预计2026年布伦特油价中枢在55- ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share CPO concept stocks have collectively risen, with Tianfu Communication surging 17% to reach a historical high, indicating strong market interest in AI-related investments and the potential for growth in the optical module sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Tianfu Communication's stock price increased by 17%, reaching a historical high [1] - New Yisheng rose over 7%, while Zhongji Xuchuang increased by over 5% [1] - Various AI ETFs, including those from Fuguo, Huaxia, Guotai, Hu'an, Huabao, Dacheng, and Southern, all saw gains exceeding 6% [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - Fuguo's AI ETF increased by 6.69% with a year-to-date return of 13.79% and an estimated scale of 35.19 billion [2] - Huaxia's AI ETF rose by 6.56% with a year-to-date return of 13.74% and an estimated scale of 17.74 billion [2] - Guotai's AI ETF saw a 6.59% increase with a year-to-date return of 13.88% and an estimated scale of 7.28 billion [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The optical module sector is experiencing a concentrated chip structure that requires time for optimization and self-correction [3] - Despite being a traditionally slow season, the demand for optical modules shows strong certainty and profitability growth, attracting significant investment [3] - The current concentration of chips indicates a large amount of short-term floating profit, which may lead to increased stock price volatility [3] Group 4: CPO Technology Outlook - There is a notable expectation gap regarding the rapid replacement of pluggable optical modules by CPO technology, primarily due to misinterpretations of developments by companies like Nvidia [4] - The industry fundamentals suggest that CPO and pluggable modules will coexist, with pluggable modules remaining the mainstream demand for the next few years [4] - Leading optical module manufacturers are not excluded from the CPO ecosystem and have established strong barriers in core areas like silicon photonics [4] Group 5: Future Demand Projections - Confidence in future demand for optical modules is increasing, with major CSPs like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta projected to spend a total of $660 billion on capital expenditures by 2026, a 60% year-on-year increase [5] - The demand for optical modules is expected to maintain a rapid upward trend due to the anticipated growth in AI-related capital investments and the ongoing evolution of chip technology [5] - The overall total cost of ownership (TCO) indicates that optical modules will remain competitive for an extended period, supporting continued growth in related companies' performance [5]

2月9日，正式进入春节前最后一周，A股主要指数悉数上扬，其中，CPO光模块表现尤为强势，天 孚通信猛涨超16%再创历史新高。热门ETF品种——创业板人工智能ETF（159363）早盘高开高走，大 涨超5.4%，持续逼近前期高点。 国信证券分析指出，国内互联网大厂陆续启动"红包大战"争抢大模型流量入口。在此背景下，算力 资源不单单成为军备竞赛的着力点，更是在各类AI应用试水过程中逐步成为"卖方型市场"，成为AI应用 的核心预算约束，算力链有望在强业绩支撑下重回科技投资主线。 创业板人工智能ETF（159363）基金经理曹旭辰最新观点表示，在市场波动加剧的背景下，ETF投 资应聚焦"简单题"——即选择产业趋势明确、业绩与估值同步向上的方向。他认为，当前全球流动性环 境依然宽松，具备产业趋势的资产更容易获得估值溢价，且这一溢价有望持续提升。曹旭辰指出，当 前，光模块属于"明确的产业趋势"，在流动性宽松环境下，其业绩和估值通道向上，容易出现估值溢 价，且溢价可能持续扩大。作为当前市场"重仓方向"之一，光模块具有产业趋势引领地位和短期（2-3 月）配套催化，预期将继续保持领跑。强预期、强现实、低估值，在市场震荡期，以光 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the rapid growth of the general aviation sector in China, with significant increases in the number of companies and aircraft, as well as advancements in drone technology [1][2] - As of February 9, 2026, the China General Aviation Theme Index (931855) rose by 1.27%, with notable increases in stocks such as Mengsheng Electronics (up 3.89%) and AVIC High-Tech (up 2.97%) [1] - The low-altitude economy is entering a rapid cultivation phase, with projections indicating that by the end of 2024, there will be 760 general aviation companies and 5,224 registered general aviation aircraft in China [1] Group 2 - The General Aviation ETF closely tracks the China General Aviation Theme Index, which includes 50 listed companies involved in various aspects of the aviation industry, reflecting the overall performance of these securities [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the China General Aviation Theme Index accounted for 45.73% of the index, with companies like Aerospace Electronics and Haige Communications among the leaders [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has approved solid-state battery testing, with industrialization expected to occur soon, targeting an energy density of over 400Wh/kg by 2026-2027, focusing on electrolyte and negative electrode collector materials [1] - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to see a bidding catalyst in 2025, with high certainty in equipment and significant flexibility in materials, offering a unit value five times that of liquid batteries [1] - JinkoSolar may collaborate with SpaceX to resolve TOPCon patent issues within the equipment chain, with auxiliary materials and flexibility being maximized, and the semiconductor and copper paste business valued at 80 billion [1] Group 2 - As of February 9, 09:43, the Kexin New Energy ETF (588830.SH) rose by 3.97%, with its related index Kexin New Energy (000692.SH) increasing by 3.89%; major constituent stocks included JinkoSolar up 10.44%, Juhua Materials up 20.00%, Rongbai Technology up 9.61%, Trina Solar up 4.15%, and Aotewi up 3.06% [1] - Guosen Securities highlights the promising prospects of space photovoltaics in the new energy power equipment sector, with global tech giants continuously expanding AI capital expenditures, leading to "outperform" ratings for certain storage equipment sector stocks [1] - Great Wall Securities believes that solid-state battery technology is entering a golden development period, with a combination of cold isostatic pressing and warm isostatic pressing processes offering efficiency and cost advantages in large-scale production, driving technological innovation in the equipment sector [1]