证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 02 日 关税问题反复，继续推荐黄金板块 金属行业周报 周期/金属及材料 金属市场淡季逐渐到来，但是由于供应和抢出口等问题，基本面普遍超预期的 好。近期经济数据集中。美国关税问题各种反复。市场对于未来衰退预期依然 强烈，市场依然以风险厌恶交易为主。继续强烈推荐黄金，反制品种稀土磁材 板块。此外，关注自主可控相关以及时间友好的科技、机器人、可控核聚变等 相关材料标的。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 234 | 4.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3953.3 | 4.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3675.1 | 4.7 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 1.6 3.8 9.0 相对表现 -0.3 5.8 2.1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Jun/24 Sep/24 Jan/25 May/25 (%) 金属及材料 沪深300 相关报告 1、《金属行业周报—金价重拾涨势， 关 注 贵 金 属 板 块 配 置 机 会 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the easing of US-China tariffs may lead to a recovery in the copper sector, driven by improved export and macroeconomic expectations, alongside tight copper supply [5] - The aluminum sector is expected to see a rebound in exports, although attention must be paid to downstream production changes [5] - The gold sector is positioned for potential recovery due to rising risk aversion stemming from increased US fiscal concerns and new tariffs on EU imports [5] - Small metals like tungsten and rare earths are showing price increases overseas, which may gradually transmit to domestic markets [5] - The steel sector is anticipated to benefit from urban renewal projects and a favorable cost environment, leading to improved profitability expectations [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Copper Sector - Recent LME copper price was $9,595 per ton, with a week-on-week change of +0.6% - SHFE copper price was 77,790 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of -0.4% - Copper social inventory recorded 139,900 tons, up 7900 tons week-on-week, indicating initial stockpiling in the off-season [5] Aluminum Sector - LME aluminum price was $2,437 per ton, with a week-on-week change of -1.5% - SHFE aluminum price was 20,155 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of +0.1% - The aluminum processing enterprise operating rate fell to 61.4%, indicating a mixed demand landscape [5] Gold Sector - SHFE gold price was 780 RMB per gram, with a week-on-week change of +3.8% - COMEX gold price was $3,358 per ounce, with a week-on-week change of +4.8% - Increased concerns over US fiscal risks and new tariffs are expected to elevate gold prices [5] Small Metals Sector - Rare earth prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides were 429,000 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of -1.0% - Tungsten prices for tungsten concentrate were 165,000 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of +0.9% [5] Steel Sector - SHFE rebar price was 3,046 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of -1.2% - SHFE hot-rolled coil price was 3,189 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week change of -1.1% - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to launch approximately 3 trillion RMB in quality projects this year, enhancing demand expectations [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and holdings of the Dachen State-Owned Enterprise Reform Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund, which has shown a slight decline in net value and mixed performance in terms of returns over different time frames [1][3]. - As of May 27, 2025, the latest net value of the fund is 3.2390 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.88% [1]. - The fund's performance over the past month shows a return of -0.31%, ranking 960 out of 1210 in its category; over the past six months, it has returned 0.84%, ranking 592 out of 1196; and year-to-date, it has achieved a return of 2.21%, ranking 356 out of 1199 [1]. Group 2 - The top ten stock holdings of the Dachen State-Owned Enterprise Reform Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund account for a total of 67.75%, with the largest holding being Sailun Tire at 9.57% [1]. - Other significant holdings include Haohua Technology (8.69%), Yun Aluminum (8.06%), China Aluminum (8.02%), and Shandong Gold (7.35%) [1]. - The fund was established on September 21, 2017, and as of March 31, 2025, it has a total scale of 1.155 billion yuan, managed by fund manager Han Chuang [1].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18% on May 27, with 13 industries experiencing gains, led by textiles and apparel (up 1.30%) and pharmaceuticals (up 0.97%). The non-ferrous metals sector had the largest decline at 2.07% [2] - The net outflow of capital from the two markets was 19.519 billion yuan, with 8 industries seeing net inflows. The food and beverage sector led with a net inflow of 1.006 billion yuan and a daily increase of 0.17%, followed by pharmaceuticals with a net inflow of 650 million yuan and a daily increase of 0.97% [2] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector declined by 2.07%, with a total net capital outflow of 1.934 billion yuan. Out of 137 stocks in this sector, 20 rose while 115 fell [3] - Among the stocks with net inflows, Tianqi Lithium saw the highest inflow of 29.1255 million yuan, followed by Liyuan Co. and Jintian Titanium with inflows of 15.2085 million yuan and 15.1109 million yuan, respectively [3] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Chifeng Gold (1.96 billion yuan), Yun Aluminum (998.792 million yuan), and Huayou Cobalt (838.327 million yuan) [3][5] Capital Flow in Non-Ferrous Metals - The top stocks with net inflows in the non-ferrous metals sector included: - Tianqi Lithium: +0.98%, 1.23% turnover, 29.1255 million yuan inflow - Liyuan Co.: +1.30%, 3.34% turnover, 15.2085 million yuan inflow - Jintian Titanium: +2.44%, 5.14% turnover, 15.1109 million yuan inflow [4] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included: - Chifeng Gold: -4.26%, 3.67% turnover, -195.8561 million yuan outflow - Yun Aluminum: -4.16%, 1.54% turnover, -99.8792 million yuan outflow - Huayou Cobalt: -0.26%, 1.04% turnover, -83.8327 million yuan outflow [5]

Market Performance - The three major indices experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.18%, Shenzhen Component down 0.61%, and ChiNext down 0.68% as of the close on May 27. The total trading volume in the two markets was approximately 998.9 billion yuan [2]. Sector Performance - The glyphosate and agricultural chemical sectors saw significant gains, with Zhongqi Co., Ltd. (300575.SZ) rising by 20%, Yabenn Chemical (300261.SZ) up over 12%, and other companies like Hailir Chemical (603639.SH) and Lier Chemical (002258.SZ) increasing by 10% [2]. - The consumer goods and food & beverage sectors also performed well, with Jin Feng Wine Industry (600616.SH), Junyao Health (605388.SH), and Kuaiji Mountain (601579.SH) all rising by 10% [3]. - The medical and CRO concept stocks strengthened, with Sanofi (688336.SH) increasing by over 15% and Junshi Biosciences (688180.SH) rising by 7.69% [3]. Policy Impact - Following the issuance of the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" by the Central Committee and the State Council, various regions have introduced their own plans to stimulate consumption, such as Hebei Province's goal of a 5% growth in retail sales by 2025 and Hainan's commitment of over 10 billion yuan to support consumption from 2025 to 2027 [3]. Industry Outlook - CITIC Securities reported that the pharmaceutical sector is expected to show the best market returns in the first half of 2025, driven by policy optimization, commercial health insurance, and AI industry catalysts. The report suggests that the second half of 2025 will see a more certain performance and valuation recovery in the healthcare industry [4]. - The real estate sector also showed positive performance, with companies like Bright Real Estate (600708.SH) rising over 9%. Analysts noted that the easing of real estate policies and supportive fiscal measures are expected to further stimulate demand [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry [7] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.88% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking seventh among 31 first-level industries [2][13] - Precious metals showed strong performance due to heightened market risk aversion influenced by global geopolitical conflicts and inflation data [5] - The report highlights the importance of strategic minor metals investment opportunities amid intensified international market purchasing [5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 1.88% from May 12 to May 23, 2025, with industrial metals and precious metals leading the gains at 2.87% and 2.45% respectively [2][13] Precious Metals - As of May 23, COMEX gold closed at $3,357.70 per ounce, reflecting a 4.75% increase over the past week and a 25.70% rise year-to-date [21][23] - COMEX silver closed at $33.64 per ounce, up 3.73% over the past week and 12.19% year-to-date [21][26] Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,595 per ton, up 1.15% over the past two weeks and 10.47% year-to-date [30] - LME aluminum closed at $2,437 per ton, increasing by 1.50% over the past two weeks but down 3.90% year-to-date [30][32] Minor Metals - The price of antimony ingots (99.65%) was reported at 225,000 yuan per ton, down 5.32% over the past two weeks but up 58.65% year-to-date [36][37] - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) was priced at 164,500 yuan per ton, down 1.79% over the past two weeks and up 15.24% year-to-date [36] Rare Earths - The rare earth price index stood at 177.95, up 0.55% over the past two weeks and 8.65% year-to-date [47] - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide was priced at 429,000 yuan per ton, up 1.42% over the past two weeks [47] Energy Metals - Electrolytic cobalt averaged 235,850 yuan per ton, down 2.54% over the past two weeks but up 38.33% year-to-date [51] - Sulfuric cobalt (≥20.5%) averaged 49,000 yuan per ton, down 0.71% over the past two weeks and up 83.52% year-to-date [51] Major Events - China issued export licenses for rare earths to at least four producers, marking the first such issuance since export controls were implemented in April [4][58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [11]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent announcement by Trump to impose tariffs on the EU has increased global economic uncertainty, which supports a bullish trend in gold prices. Central banks continue to purchase gold, indicating a sustained long-term bullish outlook [3]. - For copper and aluminum, while there is a short-term weakness in downstream operations, the long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight, justifying a "Recommended" rating for both industries [11]. - Tin prices are expected to stabilize at a high level, with corporate profits projected to gradually increase, leading to a "Recommended" rating for the tin industry [11]. - Antimony prices are currently weak due to short-term demand decline, but long-term supply constraints are expected to support prices, hence a "Recommended" rating is maintained [11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) showed a monthly performance increase of 3.1%, a quarterly increase of 4.3%, and a yearly increase of 3.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [1]. Macroeconomic Indicators - China's real estate development investment from January to April decreased by 10.3%, while the industrial added value in April grew by 6.1%, exceeding expectations [4][28]. - The U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 52.3, significantly above the expected 49.9 [3][28]. Gold Market Data - The London gold price increased to $3342.65 per ounce, a rise of 3.48% from the previous week [32]. - SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose to 29.66 million ounces, an increase of 120,000 ounces [32]. Copper Market Data - LME copper closed at $9565 per ton, up by $52 from the previous week, while SHFE copper closed at 77,790 yuan per ton, down by 880 yuan [41]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 139,900 tons, a decrease of 790 tons from the previous week [41]. Aluminum Market Data - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices rose to 20,400 yuan per ton, an increase of 170 yuan [42]. - The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises was reported at 56.0%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [42]. Tin and Antimony Market Data - Domestic refined tin prices were reported at 265,070 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 370 yuan [43]. - Antimony ingot prices were reported at 220,500 yuan per ton, down by 2,000 yuan [43].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic, with a recommendation to buy [3][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights the production elasticity and profit elasticity of electrolytic aluminum companies, indicating that profitability will be a key competitive factor due to fixed production capacity [8]. - The report predicts a decrease in the volatility of alumina prices in 2025, which will enhance the profitability of companies like Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo, and Tianshan [8]. - The report provides forecasts for gold production from listed companies, with specific attention to the CAGR of production from 2024 to 2027 [10][11]. Summary by Sections Copper Industry - The report includes production data and forecasts for major copper companies, emphasizing the importance of proprietary mining data [6]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The report details the production capacity and market valuation of various electrolytic aluminum companies, noting that the lowest market value per ton of aluminum is approximately 21,000 RMB [8][9]. Gold Industry - The report presents a forecast of self-produced gold output for listed companies, with specific figures for total gold resources and market capitalization [10][11]. Lithium Industry - The report outlines the lithium resource rights and production forecasts for several companies, highlighting significant growth rates for companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Yongxing Materials [12]. Uranium Industry - The report discusses the production forecasts for uranium companies, particularly focusing on China General Nuclear Power Corporation, with a projected CAGR of 8.16% from 2024 to 2027 [14][15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that gold prices are on an upward trend, driven by resilient inflation and trade tensions, particularly with the potential for increased tariffs on Europe [4] - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile due to fluctuating tariffs, with a price center around $9,300 [5] - Aluminum prices are forecasted to rise due to strong domestic demand and inventory depletion [5] - Tungsten prices are anticipated to continue rising, supported by better-than-expected export recovery [6] - Rare earth prices are under pressure due to increased imports, but long-term investment opportunities are suggested as supply constraints may tighten [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4695.15, with a weekly high of 5020.22 and a low of 3700.9 [1] Price Movements - LME copper increased by 0.62%, while aluminum decreased by 0.60%. Gold prices on COMEX rose by 1.98% [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible copper inventory decreased by 14,348 tons, and aluminum inventory decreased by 11,426 tons [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum industry is expected to benefit from favorable domestic policies and supply disruptions in Guinea affecting bauxite supply, leading to potential price increases and inventory reductions [6][9] - The report highlights that the aluminum industry is likely to experience a sustained "de-inventory + price increase" trend, supported by improving export conditions and limited supply growth [9] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of May 23, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2466.0 per ton, while the Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥20155.0 per ton [19] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥20400.0 per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of ¥170.0 [19] 2. Production - In April 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 360.6 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.8 million tons but a year-on-year increase of 2.5 million tons [51] - The production of alumina in April 2025 was 708.4 million tons, down 46.6 million tons month-on-month but up 30.2 million tons year-on-year [51] 3. Inventory - As of May 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 557,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 24,000 tons [6] - The inventory of aluminum rods was 130,800 tons, down 740 tons week-on-week, remaining at a three-year low [6] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include Shenhuo Co., China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [5]