Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The adjustment of the vehicle replacement policy will slightly weaken demand, but the reduction in vehicle purchase tax will promote early purchases, leading to a competitive demand scenario in Q4. As of September 10, 2025, the number of applications for vehicle replacement reached 8.3 million, indicating a significant policy-driven effect. Despite the adjustments in the replacement policy, the pressure from the tax reduction is expected to encourage consumers to purchase new energy vehicles earlier. The report forecasts that China's new energy vehicle sales will reach 16.25 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 26% [2][18]. Monthly Focus - The adjustment of the vehicle replacement policy has increased application difficulty. Since June, applications for vehicle replacement have been suspended due to the exhaustion of funds, but recent funding has led to adjustments in the policy across various regions. The adjustments mainly include changes in application methods and subsidy standards, with some regions reducing the subsidy amount per vehicle [14][15]. - There is a significant funding gap for Q4, as the distribution of funds does not account for seasonal consumption patterns. The central government will allocate 69 billion yuan for Q4, which is the same as Q3, but the demand for vehicle consumption is typically stronger in the second half of the year, leading to an amplified funding gap for Q4 [16][17]. Key Data Tracking - In August, the sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 27%. The penetration rate for new energy vehicles was 49%, remaining stable compared to the previous month. However, the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) experienced a decline for two consecutive months, primarily due to pressure on sales from major manufacturers [20][28]. - The report highlights that commercial vehicles and exports continue to maintain high growth rates, with new energy commercial vehicle sales in August reaching 70,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 52% [34][35]. - The report also notes that the export of new energy vehicles has been robust, with August exports reaching 224,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 104% [46][48]. Industry and Company Changes - The report indicates progress in the overseas production capacity of automotive companies, with several manufacturers establishing production bases in regions like Brazil and Austria. Additionally, companies like Chery and HeSai have listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange, while Dongfeng Group plans to privatize and spin off its Lantu brand to maintain its listing status [3][45].

Group 1 - New Lynk & Co 08 EM-P launched with a price range of 175,800 to 228,800 yuan, featuring four models [1][5] - New Lynk & Co 07 EM-P launched with a price range of 155,800 to 175,800 yuan, featuring three models [2][11] - New BYD Qin PLUS launched with a price range of 79,800 to 99,800 yuan, offering EV and DM-i powertrains [16][17] - New Li Auto i6 launched with a starting price of 249,800 yuan for the two-wheel drive version [22][24] - Mercedes-Benz pure electric CLA L pre-sale started with a price range of 259,000 to 299,000 yuan [5][37] - Chery Automobile listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at a price of 30.75 HKD per share, raising 9.145 billion HKD [52][56] Group 2 - Lynk & Co 08 features a 1.5T engine with a maximum power of 120kW and a hybrid system, offering improved configurations and a price reduction of 10,000 yuan [9][15] - Lynk & Co 07 includes a 1.5T engine with a maximum power of 120kW, with a price reduction of 4,000 yuan and standard features like laser radar [15] - BYD Qin PLUS offers a new battery pack for the DM-i model, enhancing its range to 128 km while maintaining the same price [19][21] - Li Auto i6 features a maximum power of 400kW for the four-wheel drive version and a CLTC electric range of 660 km [30] - Mercedes-Benz CLA L boasts a maximum power of 200kW and a CLTC electric range of 866 km, positioning it as a competitive electric sedan [37][35] - Chery's successful listing marks a significant milestone in its mixed-ownership reform and future expansion plans [56]

Group 1: Company Overview - The company is Huizhou Desay SV Automotive Electronics Co., Ltd. [3] - Stock code is 002920, and the stock abbreviation is Desay SV [1]. Group 2: Investor Relations Activity - The investor relations activity was conducted as a targeted research meeting on September 25-26, 2025 [5]. - Participants included representatives from various funds and investment firms, such as Longview Fund and Goldman Sachs [2][4]. Group 3: Business Progress and Developments - The company’s smart cockpit and intelligent driving domain control business are experiencing positive growth, with the fourth-generation smart cockpit in mass production for clients like Li Auto and Xiaomi [5]. - The company has secured new project orders from major clients, including Geely and GAC Aion, for its fourth-generation flagship smart cockpit domain control products [5]. Group 4: Regulatory Impact - New regulations are expected to enhance the safety and reliability of assisted driving systems, requiring manufacturers to avoid misleading advertising and improve system capabilities [6]. - The company supports stricter standards to ensure user safety and aims to enhance system performance in response to these regulations [6]. Group 5: Global Expansion Strategy - The company is enhancing its global presence with strategic branches in countries like Germany, France, and Japan, and plans to start production in a smart factory in Spain by 2026 [7]. - It aims to become an indispensable partner in the global supply chain for Chinese automotive brands, focusing on localized service capabilities [7]. Group 6: Autonomous Vehicle Development - The company has launched its brand "Chuanxing Zhiyuan" for autonomous vehicles, achieving significant market interest and securing customer orders [8]. - The autonomous vehicle features a robust design and has improved its climbing capability from 20% to 25%, ensuring adaptability across various terrains [8]. Group 7: Comprehensive Intelligent Solutions - The company has introduced a full-stack assisted driving solution that integrates hardware, system, and core algorithms to meet diverse market needs [8]. - This solution allows for efficient resource utilization and customization based on regional regulations and requirements [8].

Market Overview - The market sentiment is cautious ahead of the holiday, leading to a decline in the Hong Kong stock market, which closed down 1.35% [1] - New tariffs announced by the U.S. on various imported products, including a 25% tariff on heavy trucks and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs, are expected to impact the market negatively [1] Company Performance - Pharmaceutical companies like Kelaiying and Yaojie Ankang saw their stocks drop over 7% due to the tariff news, although the impact on the pharmaceutical sector is limited as U.S. domestic companies bear the sales burden [2] - Boleton, focusing on electric heavy trucks, surged over 20% as it is not affected by the new tariffs [2] Automotive Industry - XPeng Motors announced its entry into five European markets, planning to launch new models and implementing a stock incentive plan, resulting in a stock increase of over 5% [4] - Chery Automobile is expanding its overseas market presence and has established a local development and global collaboration system, with a projected strong sales performance in various regions [4] Energy Sector - The National Energy Administration emphasizes expanding the use of green hydrogen and integrating it into various industries, which is expected to create new growth points in the renewable energy sector [5] - Wood Mackenzie forecasts that global wind power installations will exceed 170 GW annually over the next five years, with a peak of 200 GW by 2034, benefiting companies like Goldwind Technology [5] Gaming and Entertainment - The gaming sector is experiencing growth, with NetDragon leveraging AI technology to reduce costs and improve efficiency, leading to a stock increase of over 16% [6] Semiconductor Industry - The successful launch of a 12-inch silicon carbide substrate processing line marks a significant advancement for China's third-generation semiconductor industry, positioning companies like Jingrui SuperSiC as leaders in the field [7] Battery Industry - Tianneng Power's revenue for the first half of 2025 decreased by 51.53% due to rising raw material costs, but the company is refocusing on its lead-acid battery business, which holds a significant market share [8] - The lithium battery segment showed a revenue increase of 174.6%, driven by demand in the domestic and U.S. markets, indicating potential for recovery in profitability [9]

中新社香港9月26日电 (戴小橦 邱兆翔)9月22日至26日全周，港股三大指数集体回调。截至收盘，恒生 指数累计下跌1.57%，报26128.2点；恒生科技指数累计下跌1.58%，报6195.11点；国企指数累计下跌 1.79%，报9303.1点。 回顾全周，尽管大盘整体回调，港股市场仍迎来年内重磅IPO(首次公开募股)事件。9月25日，奇瑞汽车 正式在香港交易及结算所有限公司挂牌上市，此次IPO募资总额达91.45亿港元，凭借这一规模，奇瑞汽 车成为2025年截至目前港股市场募资体量最大的车企上市项目。 来源：中国新闻网 市场分析指出，当周回调源于投资者对宏观环境的谨慎预期，叠加科技板块短期获利回吐压力。但奇瑞 IPO的热度显示，中资机构对制造业龙头认可度仍在提升，募资所得将助力其新能源车型研发与全球化 布局，为市场注入结构性活力。短期需关注政策动向与企业三季度业绩，判断基本面能否支撑市场企 稳。(完) 9月26日，恒生指数跌1.35%，收报26128.2点。中新社记者 陈永诺 摄 从交易表现来看，奇瑞汽车获得市场一定程度关注。上市首日，奇瑞汽车股价最高升至34.98港元，最 高涨13.75%。截至26日收 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chery Automobile has officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after overcoming previous obstacles related to its complex shareholding structure, but it still faces multiple challenges that need to be addressed [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Chery's revenue is projected to grow from 92.618 billion to 269.897 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70.7%, while net profit is expected to rise from 5.806 billion to 14.334 billion [2] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to be 13.5% in 2024, declining to 12.4% in the first quarter of 2025 [2] - Chery's debt ratio remains high, with asset-liability ratios of 93%, 92%, and 89% from the end of 2022 to the third quarter of 2024, and reaching 87.7% in the first quarter of 2025 [2] - Prior to the IPO, Chery distributed a significant dividend of 3.993 billion, equivalent to 27.8% of its 2024 net profit, which may impact its financial flexibility [2] Group 2: Product and Market Position - Fuel vehicles continue to be Chery's primary revenue source, accounting for 69.7% of passenger vehicle revenue in the first quarter of 2025 [3] - In the first eight months of 2025, Chery's new energy vehicle sales reached 496,000 units, representing approximately 28.7% of total sales, which is still below the industry average retail penetration rate [3] - The high-end brand, Exeed, has seen disappointing results, with sales of 7,659 units in August 2023, down 32.45% year-on-year, and a cumulative decline of 3.84% in the first eight months [3] - Chery's new energy brands show uneven development, with iCAR selling 6,947 units in the first quarter of 2025, while the higher-priced ZhiJie sold only 4,461 units [3] Group 3: International Market and R&D - Chery's overseas market is heavily reliant on Russia, which accounted for 54% of its overseas revenue in 2023, posing significant risks due to potential tariff increases [4] - In the first quarter of 2025, Chery's revenue from the Russian market dropped to 27.8%, while growth in Europe, the Middle East, Latin America, and Southeast Asia is accelerating [4] - Despite a research and development expenditure exceeding 10.5 billion in 2024, Chery's R&D expense ratio is low at 3.3% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to industry leaders [4] - Chery's advanced driver-assistance systems are primarily at the L2+ level, while leading domestic competitors are advancing to L3 [4] - The funds raised from the IPO are intended for expanding the passenger vehicle product lineup, developing next-generation vehicles and advanced technologies, implementing global strategies, upgrading the Wuhu production base, and supplementing working capital [4]

Overall Market - The overall market for passenger vehicles includes ICE (Internal Combustion Engine), BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle), and PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle) [4] - In the first eight months of 2025, the total production and sales of vehicles reached 2,481,169 units, with a year-on-year growth of 13.5% [5] - The market share of new energy vehicles (NEV) in the overall market reached 23.1% in production and 23.5% in wholesale [5] Submarket Analysis - The new energy vehicle market is segmented into BEV and PHEV, with significant growth observed in both categories [4] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles in August 2025 reached 1,114,901 units, showing an increase of 8.8% compared to the previous year [5] Export Market - The export of new energy vehicles in the first eight months of 2025 totaled 499,341 units, reflecting a growth of 20.2% year-on-year [5] - The overall export market for vehicles, including complete vehicles and CKD (Completely Knocked Down), showed a positive trend with a total of 2,481,169 units exported [5] Manufacturer Performance - BYD remains the top manufacturer in the new energy vehicle segment, with wholesale sales of 371,501 units, marking a growth of 10.2% [21] - Tesla China reported a decline in wholesale sales by 4.0%, totaling 83,192 units [21] Vehicle Type Segmentation - In August 2025, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were dominated by SUVs, with 543,141 units sold, followed by sedans and MPVs [26] - The overall retail market for new energy vehicles showed a significant increase in the SUV segment, indicating a shift in consumer preference [26] Brand Positioning - The luxury brand segment, including brands like Mercedes-Benz and BMW, continues to maintain a strong presence in the market, with competitive sales figures [4] - The market is segmented into price ranges, with vehicles priced below 100,000 yuan showing a notable increase in sales [4] Country Positioning - The export market for new energy vehicles is expanding, with countries increasingly adopting electric vehicles, contributing to the growth of the export segment [20] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the export market reached 43.5% in 2025, indicating a growing acceptance of these vehicles globally [20] Price Positioning - The price segmentation of vehicles shows that the demand for mid-range vehicles (100,000 to 300,000 yuan) is increasing, reflecting changing consumer preferences [4] - The overall market dynamics indicate a shift towards more affordable electric vehicles, which is expected to drive future growth [4]

Industry Overview - In the first eight months of 2025, China's lithium-ion battery exports reached 30.03 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 18.66%, with an export value of $48.296 billion, up 25.79% year-on-year, indicating a stable growth trend [1] - In August 2025 alone, the export value was $7.153 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.51% [1] Cobalt Supply and Regulations - The Democratic Republic of Congo announced an end to an eight-month export ban starting October 15, 2025, transitioning to a strict quota management system, with only 18,100 tons of cobalt available for export in the remainder of 2025 [2] - The annual export limits for 2026 and 2027 are set at 96,600 tons [2] Lithium Battery Material Production - Hunan Youneng has reported a production capacity of 858,000 tons for phosphate-based cathode materials as of June 2025, with ongoing projects in Spain and Malaysia [2] Market Dynamics for Lithium Materials - Domestic lithium carbonate prices have fluctuated between 73,000 to 74,000 yuan per ton, with strong market demand supporting price stability despite regulatory delays in Jiangxi [4] - The price of cobalt has increased due to the adjustment of export regulations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, impacting the prices of ternary materials and precursors [6] Pricing Trends for Key Materials - Ternary material prices range from 126,000 to 131,000 yuan per ton for single crystal types and 145,000 to 151,000 yuan per ton for 811 types [7] - Phosphate iron lithium prices are between 33,600 to 35,000 yuan per ton for power types and 32,600 to 33,200 yuan per ton for energy storage types [8] - The price of negative electrode materials shows a range from 50,000 to 65,000 yuan per ton for high-end natural graphite products [9] Electrolyte Market Developments - The domestic electrolyte market is experiencing strong supply and demand, with prices slightly increasing; a significant long-term supply agreement has been signed between Jiujiang Tianci and Ruipu Lanjun for a minimum of 800,000 tons of electrolyte products by December 31, 2030 [10][11] Battery and Electric Vehicle Market - The domestic lithium battery market remains stable, with a projected production increase of up to 5% in October 2025, driven by strong demand from new energy vehicles and energy storage [12] - In the last week, 508,000 passenger vehicles were sold, with new energy vehicles accounting for 298,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.25% [13] Energy Storage Innovations - The energy storage cell market is stable, with some leading companies planning to raise cell prices; BYD has launched a new generation energy storage system featuring a 2710Ah blade battery, marking a significant advancement in capacity [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on September 26, 2025, and also gives the expected trends for September 2025. It also provides information on macro - news and trading alerts, and analyzes the performance of various futures contracts on September 25, 2025 [2][7][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate. IF2512 has resistance at 4588 and 4600 points, support at 4550 and 4529 points; IH2512 has resistance at 2970 and 2981 points, support at 2946 and 2939 points; IC2512 has resistance at 7250 and 7300 points, support at 7139 and 7100 points; IM2512 has resistance at 7380 and 7459 points, support at 7245 and 7174 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support at 107.40 and 107.30 yuan, resistance at 107.72 and 107.83 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 is likely to oscillate weakly in a wide range, with support at 113.5 and 113.0 yuan, resistance at 114.3 and 114.7 yuan [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2512 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance at 862.1 and 865.0 yuan/gram, support at 850.0 and 848.0 yuan/gram. Silver futures contract AG2512 is likely to oscillate strongly and will attack the resistance at 10600 and 10680 yuan/kg, support at 10411 and 10397 yuan/kg, and may hit a new high since listing [3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures contract CU2511 is likely to oscillate in a wide range and will accumulate strength to attack the resistance at 83300 and 84000 yuan/ton, support at 82000 and 81500 yuan/ton. Aluminum futures contract AL2511 is likely to oscillate strongly and will attack the resistance at 20860 and 20940 yuan/ton, support at 20740 and 20700 yuan/ton. Alumina futures contract AO2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and will test the support at 2900 and 2877 yuan/ton, resistance at 2942 and 2960 yuan/ton [3]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Crude oil futures contract SC2511 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance at 492 and 494 yuan/barrel, support at 485 and 483 yuan/barrel. Fuel oil futures contract FU2601 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance at 2910 and 2929 yuan/ton, support at 2887 and 2873 yuan/ton. PTA futures contract TA601, PVC futures contract V2601, and bean meal futures contract M2601 are likely to oscillate weakly. Natural rubber futures contract RU2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and will test the support at 15210 and 15110 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Macro - news and Trading Alerts - The Ministry of Commerce took multiple measures, including adding US entities to export - control and unreliable - entity lists, responding to Sino - US soybean trade issues, initiating trade - investment barrier investigations against Mexico, and launching an anti - dumping investigation into imported pecans from Mexico and the US [7]. - The digital RMB international operation center was officially launched, and the tax department and platforms are preparing for the first tax - related information submission. The US Q2 GDP growth was revised upwards, and some Fed officials advocated for interest - rate cuts [8]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 25, 2025, IF2512, IH2512, and IC2512 showed different degrees of upward movement, while IM2512 showed a slight decline. The report also gives the expected trends for September 2025, all contracts are likely to oscillate in a wide range [12][13][16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 25, 2025, the ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 oscillated weakly, and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 oscillated slightly upwards. The report gives the expected trends for September 26, 2025 [37][40]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On September 25, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2512 oscillated downwards, and the silver futures contract AG2512 oscillated upwards and hit a new high during the night session. The report gives the expected trends for September 2025 and September 26, 2025 [45][50]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On September 25, 2025, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures showed different trends. The report gives the expected trends for September 2025 and September 26, 2025 [56][61]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: On September 25, 2025, various commodity futures such as crude oil, fuel oil, and PTA showed different trends. The report gives the expected trends for September 2025 and September 26, 2025 [100][104][111].

Core Viewpoint - Chery Automobile has successfully launched its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising HKD 9.14 billion with a subscription rate of 238 times, marking it as the largest IPO for a car company in Hong Kong this year [2] Group 1: Company Overview - Chery Automobile was established in 1997 and is headquartered in Wuhu, Anhui, with a registered capital exceeding CNY 5.4 billion [2] - The company has a strategic goal of becoming an "international brand" and has been the top exporter of Chinese passenger cars for 22 consecutive years [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Chery's revenue is projected to grow from CNY 92.618 billion in 2022 to CNY 269.897 billion by 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70.7% [3] - Net profit is expected to increase from CNY 5.806 billion to CNY 14.334 billion during the same period, with a CAGR of 57.1% [3] - By 2024, Chery's overseas market revenue is anticipated to exceed CNY 100.899 billion, accounting for 37.4% of total revenue [3] Group 3: Market Position - In the first eight months of this year, Chery exported 798,800 vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, maintaining its position as the top exporter of Chinese automobiles [3] - Chery ranks 14th in the global automotive brand export list among the top 50 Chinese global brands [3] Group 4: Industry Context - China is the largest market for new energy vehicles (NEVs), with a global market share of 24.4% in 2022, significantly higher than the global average of 13.3% [4] - The export of Chinese NEVs has been rapidly increasing, with the number of exports rising from 147,100 units in 2018 to 679,000 units in 2022 [6] - In the first eight months of 2025, NEV exports reached 2 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 51%, outpacing the growth of traditional fuel vehicles [6] Group 5: Technological Landscape - Chinese new energy technology is considered to be 3 to 5 years ahead of the global competition [7] - However, there are warnings about potential technological disruptions from overseas competitors who are actively developing advanced technologies such as solid-state batteries and interactive vehicle networks [9]