Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates a transition from "stable volume and slow price" to "price increase and stable volume" for the automotive industry in 2026 [6][16] - The domestic demand for passenger vehicles is expected to show positive growth in 2026, supported by policies such as scrapping and replacement subsidies [27][28] - The report highlights that the average selling price (ASP) of passenger vehicles is projected to increase, with a notable rise in ASP observed in December 2025 [16][20] Summary by Sections 1. Passenger Vehicle Sales and Market Dynamics - In December 2025, domestic passenger vehicle sales reached 2.278 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% but a month-on-month increase of 13.6% [16] - The total sales for 2025 were 23.052 million units, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.6% [16] - The report notes that December's performance was significantly below seasonal norms, attributed to the suspension of scrapping subsidies in some regions [16] 2. ASP Trends and Market Expectations - The ASP for passenger vehicles in 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, with December 2025 ASP increasing by 13.7% compared to the previous year [16][20] - The report anticipates that the continuation of scrapping policies will enhance the sales of mid-to-high-end vehicles, contributing to price increases [27] 3. Inventory and Supply Chain Considerations - As of December 2025, the inventory of passenger vehicles stood at 4.708 million units, with a dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio of 2.48 [40] - The report suggests that short-term inventory risks are manageable, as leading domestic manufacturers may adjust production based on current demand [40] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on various companies within the passenger vehicle supply chain, including Geely, BYD, and Xpeng Motors for growth potential [6][27] - It also highlights companies like Great Wall Motors and SAIC Group as having potential turning points in their performance [6][27]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the humanoid robotics industry, highlighting 2026 as a pivotal year for the commercialization and mass production of humanoid robots [3]. Core Insights - The industry is experiencing accelerated growth, with significant developments such as OpenAI establishing a humanoid robotics research institute and Tesla planning to launch consumer sales by 2027 [1]. - Recent patent approvals for humanoid robot designs by Yushun Technology signal a focus on modular and scalable designs suitable for various applications, including industrial production and space exploration [1][22]. - Partnerships, such as the agreement between UBTECH and Airbus for the deployment of humanoid robots in high-precision manufacturing environments, illustrate the expanding application of robotics in diverse sectors [1][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report notes a shift from policy guidance to commercial implementation, fostering long-term growth in the embodied intelligence sector [8]. - Key events include the establishment of a provincial humanoid robot training ground in Jinan, aiming for an industry scale of 80 billion yuan by 2026 [9][11]. Core Components - Yiyou Technology has launched its first automated production line for robot joints, increasing annual capacity to 100,000 units, with future upgrades expected to raise this to 150,000 units [2]. - Li Auto is actively recruiting talent to restart its humanoid robot development, indicating a strategic focus on comprehensive R&D in this field [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes 2026 as a critical year for the humanoid robotics sector, with expectations for significant production increases and the emergence of a competitive landscape [3]. - Key areas of focus include the convergence of Tesla's supply chain, advancements in electric drive technologies, and opportunities within international supply chains involving major tech companies [3]. Important Industry Events - The report highlights several significant events, including the launch of a humanoid robot training ground in Jinan and the establishment of a robot trading center in Chengdu, aimed at promoting innovation and application in the robotics sector [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the automotive sector, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [5][22]. Core Insights - The change in subsidy policies has led to the disappearance of the tail effect in Q4 2025, resulting in a reduction of demand overdraw for 2026. In December 2025, the number of insured vehicles was 2.278 million, down 16.4% year-on-year but up 13.6% month-on-month. The total number of insured vehicles for the year reached 23.047 million, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles rising to 54.0%, an increase of 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][7][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Subsidy Policies - The report highlights that the changes in subsidy policies have caused consumers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, leading to a decrease in demand overdraw for 2026. The expectation is that as replacement subsidy application channels open, pent-up demand will materialize, and the domestic terminal market will trend towards "price increase and stable volume" [4][7]. 2. PHEV Market Share Tracking - The focus is on the performance of PHEV market shares, particularly for BYD and Geely, as the "mid-level assisted driving equity" leads to share differentiation. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring configuration adjustments and terminal discount changes to understand further market share differentiation [9][16]. 3. Recent Report Insights - The report notes that the passenger vehicle inventory saw a slight reduction in December 2025, with an estimated 1.5 million vehicles in demand waiting to be fulfilled. The overall industry theme for 2025 was "emerging from deflation," with a judgment of "stable volume and slow price increase" being validated. The outlook for 2026 remains "price increase and stable volume," differing from market consensus due to regulatory changes and risk-return assessments [16][17]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "shelf-style" investment approach, recommending various companies across the passenger vehicle chain. Right-side targets include Geely, BYD, and others, while left-side targets include Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile. In the commercial vehicle chain, recommended companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - Tesla is actively promoting the FSD subscription upgrade, which is expected to drive domestic automakers towards a software payment model. The launch of the Robotaxi service without a safety driver in Austin is anticipated to enhance FSD penetration rates, making software payments a significant revenue contributor for Tesla [8][12] - The restart of Tesla's Dojo project is expected to create new opportunities for domestic liquid cooling companies, supported by a $16.5 billion agreement with Samsung for AI6 chip production [13] - Continuous attention is recommended for companies in the autonomous driving and robotics supply chains, as partnerships and collaborations in these sectors are expected to boost demand for key components [14][15] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests focusing on the liquid cooling supply chain, humanoid robotics chain, T chain, and autonomous driving companies, as they are expected to benefit from ongoing catalysts [15] - Key liquid cooling stocks include Invec (未评级), Silver Wheel (买入), Top Group (买入), Feilong (未评级), and Chuanhuan Technology (未评级) [16] - Key robotics stocks include New Spring (买入), Top Group (买入), Silver Wheel (买入), Daimai (买入), and Sanhua Intelligent Control (买入) [16] - Key autonomous driving stocks include Jingwei Hengrun-W (买入), Bertley (买入), and Desay SV (买入) [16] Sales Tracking - The report indicates that the wholesale sales of passenger cars in China for the week of January 12-18 were 359,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 28% [17] - The retail sales for the same period were 351,000 units, down 22% year-on-year [17] Market Trends - The automotive sector showed overall strength, with the automotive index rising by 2.2%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [28] - The commercial vehicle sector saw a significant increase of 7.38%, while the passenger vehicle sector experienced a slight decline of 0.67% [28]

通过所选区间该基金净值增长率分位图，可以观察该基金与同类基金业绩比较情况。图为坐标原点到区间内某时点的净值增长率在同类基金中的分位数。 AI基金浦银经济带崛起混合A（519175）披露2025年四季报，第四季度基金利润5.58万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0022元。报告期内，基金净值增长 率为0.21%，截至四季度末，基金规模为2905.37万元。 该基金属于灵活配置型基金。截至1月22日，单位净值为1.187元。基金经理是赵楠，目前管理的2只基金近一年均为正收益。其中，截至1月22日，浦银安盛 安弘回报一年持有混合A近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达7.8%；浦银经济带崛起混合A最低，为5.81%。 基金管理人在四季报中表示，报告期内，我们积极调整组合结构以应对市场变化，仍然坚守"以稳为主、适度弹性"的投资思路，通过积极研究产业趋势，配 置的有色、通信等板块取得较好收益，而对传媒、食品饮料等配置对组合造成一定拖累。对于债券投资，我们坚持投资高评级债券以规避信用风险可能带来 的波动，债券部分整体久期中性，部分转债配置取得了不错的效果。 截至1月22日，浦银经济带崛起混合A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为2.3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mechanical equipment sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [6]. Core Insights - The low-altitude economy is experiencing significant growth, with the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area set to add 801 new low-altitude takeoff and landing points by 2025, and a logistics drone route network of 310 lines, showcasing a market potential of over one trillion yuan [3]. - The mechanical equipment sector shows strong competitive advantages for domestic leading companies, with forklift sales in December 2025 reaching 111,363 units, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.03%, while exports grew by 7.97% [3]. - The engineering machinery industry is expected to maintain steady growth, with total forklift sales in 2025 projected to be 1,451,768 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [3]. Weekly Market Review - From January 11 to January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.14% and 1.00%, respectively. The Shenwan Mechanical Equipment Index increased by 1.91%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.48 percentage points, ranking fifth among 31 Shenwan first-level industries [2][11]. - Sub-sectors within mechanical equipment saw varied performance, with general equipment up by 3.11%, automation equipment up by 4.19%, while engineering machinery and rail transit equipment saw declines of 0.88% and 1.81%, respectively [11]. Key Sector Tracking - The low-altitude economy is supported by the timely establishment of safety standards, such as the Civil Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Parachute System Specification, which aims to enhance operational safety for drones in densely populated areas [3]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape for domestic leading companies in the mechanical equipment sector, emphasizing their strong position in both supply and demand [3]. Investment Recommendations - For the low-altitude economy, recommended companies include Deep City Transportation, Sujiao Science and Technology, and Huasheng Group, among others [4]. - In the mechanical equipment sector, recommended companies include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Anhui Heli for engineering machinery, and Juxing Technology and Quanfeng Holdings for the export chain [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the mechanical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Insights - The low-altitude economy is experiencing significant growth, with the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area set to add 801 new low-altitude takeoff and landing points by 2025, and a logistics drone route network of 310 lines, showcasing a market potential of over one trillion [3]. - The mechanical equipment sector is expected to maintain steady growth, supported by strong competitive advantages of domestic leading enterprises in both supply and demand [3]. - In December 2025, forklift sales reached 111,363 units, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.03%, with exports growing by 7.97% to 47,556 units [3]. Weekly Market Review - From January 11 to January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.14% and 1.00%, respectively. The Shenwan Mechanical Equipment Index increased by 1.91%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.48 percentage points, ranking fifth among 31 Shenwan first-level industries [11]. - Sub-sectors such as general equipment and automation equipment saw increases of 3.11% and 4.19%, respectively, while engineering machinery and rail transit equipment experienced declines of 0.88% and 1.81% [11]. Key Sector Tracking - The report highlights the low-altitude economy's rapid development alongside the establishment of critical safety standards, which are essential for the sustainable growth of the sector [3]. - The mechanical equipment sector's export chain remains robust, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4% in exports for 2025, indicating a positive trend for future growth [3]. Investment Recommendations - For the low-altitude economy, recommended companies include Deep City Transportation, Sujiao Science and Technology, and Wan Feng Aowei [4]. - In the mechanical equipment sector, recommended companies include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Anhui Heli for engineering machinery, and Giant Star Technology and Quan Feng Holdings for the export chain [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 133.01 RMB per share based on a 85x PE valuation for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of 28.5 billion RMB [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic industrial control sector, benefiting from overseas market expansion, deepening in niche markets, and product matrix expansion. The projected CAGR for revenue and net profit from 2020 to 2024 is 30% and 29%, respectively, indicating long-term stable growth amidst industry cycle fluctuations [2]. - The company is strategically positioned in the humanoid robot core actuator sector, collaborating with industry leaders to accelerate industrialization and build a new growth engine [2]. - The company has established a clear "one core, two new" product strategy, focusing on industrial automation, green energy, and embodied intelligence, which is expected to drive future growth [13]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamentals - The company has been deeply engaged in the industrial automation control field for 20 years, evolving from a frequency converter manufacturer to a comprehensive solution provider [13]. - The overseas revenue share reached 27% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant increase in international market penetration [16]. - The company’s revenue and net profit are expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% and 29% from 2020 to 2024, respectively, with a strong performance in 2021 due to domestic manufacturing recovery [16][19]. 2. Growth Drivers - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see mass production starting in 2026, with the company well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [34]. - The company has established a complete product matrix for humanoid robots, including various actuator solutions, and is actively integrating resources with partners to enhance market competitiveness [44][46]. 3. Basic Landscape - The global industrial automation market is approximately 4-5 times larger than the domestic market, with higher average gross margins overseas [3]. - The company’s overseas revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 76% from 2020 to 2024, with significant contributions from emerging markets [3]. - The domestic automation market is expected to recover gradually, with a projected CAGR of over 15% from 2025 to 2027 [3]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 280 million RMB, 335 million RMB, and 402 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 14.3%, 19.6%, and 20.0% [4]. - The report emphasizes the company's robust operational performance in the industrial control sector and its leading position in overseas market expansion [4].

Group 1 - Yongda Automotive shows strong recovery potential in luxury car dealership performance, supported by cash flow and dividend yield attractiveness [1] - The company benefits from BMW's support in new car gross profit, alongside the clearing of inefficient dealerships in the luxury car sector [1] - The new energy business is expected to contribute significantly, with a projected net cash flow exceeding 1.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Tianzhun Technology's core business is experiencing strong growth, but the industry faces cost pressures due to memory shortages [2] - The company focuses on intelligent driving and embodied intelligence, with significant growth momentum [2] - The shortage of high-end DDR5 memory and rising DRAM prices are impacting the cost structure for automotive manufacturers [2] Group 3 - Longsheng Technology has significant untapped potential in the commercial aerospace sector, with its subsidiary positioned in precision welding components [3] - The traditional business remains a core pillar of performance, while the robotics segment has clear long-term growth logic [3] - Yinxun shares are expected to see substantial market value elasticity due to the data center liquid cooling module as a core growth driver [3] Group 4 - Fuda shares have issued convertible bonds, signaling positive developments, with strong performance expected in 2026 due to scarce production capacity [3] - The company is involved in the drafting of national standards for robotic components, with overseas client validation progressing [3] - Tiancheng Self-Control is positioned as a key player in the low-altitude economy, with significant market share potential as the industry matures [3]

2026 年 01 月 21 日 叶传动/分别 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资后示: O 永达汽车：豪车经销商业绩触底反弹确定性强，现金流与股息率具备吸引力。公司作为 宝马渠道核心豪车经销商，依托主机厂盈利扶持，经营周期底部复苏信号明确。一方 面，宝马等主机厂保障经销商新车毛利，叠加行业低效门店出清，BBA 等豪车车企亏损 见底；另一方面，新能源业务贡献增量，新车毛利率可观，2025年渠道上量叠加华为系 品牌起量，该业务盈利空间广阔。公司 2025 上半年净现金流超 11 亿元,配置吸引力突 出；后续宝马车型周期下半年落地，业绩弹性拐点将进一步明确，整体观点偏乐观。 相关研究 《整车出海、机器人预期强化;同时关注 业绩确定性白马 -- 2026/1/12- 2026/1/18 汽车周报》 2026/01/19 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 天成、福达 周一刻钟，大事快评（W141） 看好 O 天准科技：核心业务高增确定性强，内存短缺引发行业成本压力预警。公 ...