Core Insights - President Trump's administration prioritizes strengthening U.S. supply chains, particularly in rare earth metals and lithium [1] - Government investments have led to significant stock returns for companies in this sector, with MP Materials up over 370% YTD and Lithium Americas up more than 180% in the past 30 days [2] Group 1: Government Investments and Stock Performance - Trilogy Metals received nearly $36 million in government backing, resulting in a 211% stock increase on October 7 [4][6] - MP Materials and Lithium Americas have shown substantial stock price movements following government investments, with MP gaining an additional 63% and Lithium Americas experiencing a 9% decline since October 3 [7] Group 2: Potential Beneficiaries - Trilogy Metals and USA Rare Earths are emerging as potential beneficiaries from the government's strategic reshoring efforts [3][14] - USA Rare Earths is positioned as a viable alternative for rare earth magnets, which are critical to U.S. supply chain strategy, especially if MP Materials faces disruptions [12][13] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - USA Rare Earths has a 12-month stock price forecast of $17.67, indicating a potential downside of 34.62% from its current price of $27.02 [9] - The company is in close communication with the White House, suggesting a possibility of future government investment [10] - In contrast, Critical Metals is not being considered for government investment, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [11]

Gold Market Insights - Gold futures have surpassed $4,000/oz for the first time, with spot gold reaching an intraday high of $3,990.65 [3] - The rally in gold prices is attributed to inflation and currency devaluation risks in the U.S. and other major economies, as noted by Daniel Altman [4] - Gold has increased over 50% this year, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets amid new tariffs and concerns about central bank independence [5] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target for the end of next year to $4,900 from $4,300, indicating that ETF inflows and central bank purchases are likely to continue [5] Ford Motor Company - Ford shares have declined following a fire at a New York plant that supplies 40% of the auto industry's aluminum sheet, leading to an estimated $800 million hit to EBIT [6][7] - The F-Series pickup, a major product for Ford, is one of the largest consumers of aluminum in the auto industry [7] Trilogy Metals - Trilogy Metals' stock has surged over 200% after South32 agreed to sell approximately $17.8 million worth of shares to the U.S. Department of Defense, resulting in a 10% stake for Washington in the Canadian exploration company [7] Dell Technologies - Dell has raised its long-term financial targets, now expecting annual revenue growth between 7% and 9%, up from a previous estimate of 3% to 4% [8] Employment Data Insights - Carlyle Group estimates that the U.S. added 17,000 jobs in September, similar to the official August nonfarm payrolls number of 22,000, based on its global portfolio [9] - Alternative indicators of employment have been criticized for leading to larger forecasting errors, according to economist Samual Tombs [9] Consumer Expectations - Consumers have raised their inflation expectations for both short- and long-term horizons in September, while their views on the labor market have weakened [10] Market Conditions - Current market conditions are likened to those of 1999, with investor Paul Tudor Jones suggesting that leverage metrics are higher than before the dot-com bubble [13]

Core Insights - The Trump administration announced a $35.6 million investment in Trilogy Metals, acquiring a 10% stake to support critical energy and mining projects in Alaska [2] - The administration plans to overturn the Biden-era decision that blocked the Ambler Road project, which aims to connect a remote mining area to significant mineral deposits [2][4] - The Ambler Road project is expected to generate billions in revenue and provide essential energy and minerals for the U.S. [2] Company Summary - Trilogy Metals holds mining rights in remote areas of Alaska and has a joint venture with South32 [2] - The company welcomed the decision to approve the Ambler Road project, highlighting the area's rich copper-dominant polymetallic deposits [5] - The investment also includes warrants to purchase an additional 7.5% equity in Trilogy Metals [2] Industry Context - This investment reflects a broader strategy by the Trump administration to counter foreign dominance in the North American critical minerals sector [3] - Recent investments include a direct stake in Lithium Americas for the Thacker Pass lithium project and a $400 million equity investment in MP Materials for a rare earth magnet factory [3] - The Ambler Road project is being constructed as a gravel toll road with environmental considerations in mind [3]

Core Insights - The Trump administration is shifting from traditional subsidies to direct equity stakes in companies to secure U.S. supply chains for critical minerals and semiconductors, aiming to reduce reliance on China [1] Group 1: Trilogy Metals Inc. - A 10% stake in Trilogy Metals Inc. was acquired as part of a $35.6 million investment to secure critical energy and mining projects in Alaska [2] - Trilogy Metals stock increased over 200% in premarket trading following the announcement [2] - The investment is linked to the Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects (UKMP) in Alaska, a joint venture with Australian miner South32 [2][3] Group 2: Critical Metals - Discussions are ongoing regarding an approximately 8% stake in Critical Metals, focusing on the Tanbreez rare earths deposit in Greenland [4] - This project is significant as it represents the largest rare earths project in Greenland [4] Group 3: Lithium Americas - A 5% stake was acquired in Lithium Americas, including a 5% stake in the Thacker Pass joint venture with General Motors [5] - The Thacker Pass lithium mine in Nevada is crucial for building a domestic supply chain for lithium, essential for electric vehicle batteries [5] Group 4: MP Materials - A stake of about 15% was acquired in MP Materials, which operates the only U.S. rare earths mine located in California [6] - The U.S. Department of Defense will become the largest shareholder in MP Materials, marking a significant investment in the critical minerals sector [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, precious metals have continued to rise, but gold and silver have shown divergence. Gold has repeatedly reached new historical highs, while silver has followed up slowly and faced pressure to fall back. The main driving factors include increased risk - aversion sentiment, expectations of interest rate cuts, and central banks' continued gold purchases. The current bull market in precious metals differs significantly from previous ones in terms of driving logic, amplitude, and the role of central banks. [4][5][7] - Looking ahead, before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026, precious metals may continue to rise. However, after the interest rate cuts enter the second half, attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid decline in precious metal prices due to profit - taking, and the overall volatility of precious metals may further increase. [64] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Since 2025, gold has reached new highs, with London gold reaching a maximum of $3057.14 per ounce, Comex gold reaching $3065.2 per ounce, and domestic Shanghai gold reaching a maximum of 711.24 yuan per gram. Silver has followed up slowly, with London silver reaching a maximum of $34.224 per ounce and domestic Shanghai silver reaching a maximum of 8444 yuan per kilogram. [4] - The main logics for the rise of precious metals since the beginning of the year are: increased risk - aversion sentiment due to global economic and political restructuring, expectations of interest rate cuts, and central banks' continued gold purchases. [5][7] - This bull market in precious metals differs from previous ones in terms of driving logic (from "cyclical" to "structural"), amplitude and breadth (unprecedented global general increase), and the role of central banks (from "participants" to "leading forces"). [9][10] - The bull market in silver also differs from previous ones in terms of driving logic (from "investment - led" to "investment + industrial demand dual - driven"), breadth and synchronicity (global value re - evaluation), and the relationship with gold (from "following" to "potentially leading"). [12][13] 3.2. Evolution Logic of Safe - Haven Attribute - The world is in the process of transitioning to a new order, with the US no longer the dominant power. There are risks of trade wars, government shutdowns, and potential geopolitical conflicts, which may increase the demand for safe - haven assets. Trump's policy expectations affect precious metal prices through multiple channels, and in the short term, risk - aversion sentiment may support precious metal prices, while in the long term, trade frictions may increase inflation or lead to economic recession, making precious metals more attractive. [14][16] - The volatility of the US stock market may rise, which will increase the safe - haven value of precious metals. [19] 3.3. Evolution Logic of Monetary Attribute - In 2025, US inflation may experience "re - inflation", and the eurozone is close to achieving its anti - inflation target, but trade war risks pose pressure on future interest rate cuts. The Fed has adjusted its monetary policy framework, which may lead to potential changes in US dollar liquidity and have different impacts on various countries. [23] - The US employment situation may continue to weaken, and Trump's new policies may accelerate the decline in employment. Non - farm payroll data has a significant impact on the Fed's interest rate decisions and precious metal prices. [32][35] - The Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates in 2025, with a total interest rate cut of about 50 basis points and the process expected to be completed around mid - 2026. The CME FedWatch Tool can help investors predict the Fed's interest rate trends. [41][42] - Global central bank monetary policies have shown significant divergence in recent years. The difference in interest rate cut expectations between the US and non - US countries is crucial. Later, the Fed's larger interest rate cut space may put pressure on the US dollar index. [45] 3.4. Evolution Logic of Commodity Attribute - In 2024, the global gold supply increased steadily, but demand declined. In 2025, demand is expected to continue to show structural divergence. Jewelry demand is suppressed by high gold prices, but official and private gold purchases offset some negative impacts. Gold ETFs, bars, and coins have strong demand, while gold jewelry demand shows a tonnage - consumption divergence. [51] - The World Silver Association predicts that in 2025, the global silver supply - demand gap will narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply. [56] 3.5. Technical Analysis - London gold has been in an upward trend since 2000. After reaching a high in 2011 and then falling back, it has started a new upward trend since 2016. In 2025, it has accelerated its upward movement. It is expected to continue to rise before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels of $3750 - 4000 (about 850 - 910 yuan for Shanghai gold) and the support level of $3400 (about 770 yuan for Shanghai gold). [58][59] - London silver has followed a similar trend to gold since 1994. Since 2016, it has oscillated upward along the 20 - year line. The recent rebound in global silver industrial demand may drive its price up. Attention should be paid to the pressure range of $49.8 - 55 (about 11780 - 13000 yuan for Shanghai silver) and the support level of $37.9 (about 8960 yuan for Shanghai silver). [62] 3.6. Future Market Development Direction from the Perspective of Long - Short Game - The reconstruction of the global economic and political system promotes the reconstruction of the monetary system. The safe - haven demand under global economic uncertainty and policy game are complexly intertwined. The continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term Sino - US game, and repeated geopolitical conflicts still support the precious metal market. Before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026, precious metals may continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid decline. [64] 3.7. Overview of the Domestic Precious Metal Industry Chain - In the first half of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 179.083 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.31%. After including imported raw material gold, the total gold production was 252.761 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.44%. Key gold mine projects are advancing rapidly, and large - scale gold enterprises' overseas mine production has increased. [67][68] - In the first half of 2025, domestic gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.54%. Gold jewelry consumption was suppressed by high prices, while demand for gold bars and coins increased, and industrial and other gold uses also increased. [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of alloys provides support, and their price trends are volatile. The high - level demand and rising cost of alloys this week offer some price support. However, due to the strong risk - aversion sentiment before the holiday and the game on the capital side, the price trends are volatile. Attention should be paid to the demand support from steel mills' production rhythm, and beware of intensified supply - demand contradictions and price declines if demand falls short of expectations [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Manganese Silicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Manganese silicon production has been slightly decreasing, with a weekly output of 20.64 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23 tons (- 1.1%), and a weekly operating rate of 44.18%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from last week. Some regions show signs of production conversion, but new production plans create a strong bearish sentiment [18]. - **Demand**: Steel mills are conducting centralized steel tenders and pricing, and pre - holiday restocking has accelerated procurement. From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remains at a high level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises this week is 90.86%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points from last week, and the average daily hot metal output is 242.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 tons. The overall demand for manganese silicon is weakly stable [23][24]. - **Inventory**: - As of September 26, the number of manganese silicon warehouse receipts is 56,113, a decrease of 4,563 week - on - week, with a converted inventory of 280,565 tons and a warehouse receipt destocking of 22,815 tons. - In September, the average available days of steel mills' manganese silicon inventory is 15.93 days (+ 0.95 days). - The inventory of 63 manganese silicon sample enterprises is 233,800 tons, an increase of 34,900 tons from a week ago [29][30][33]. - **Cost**: Overseas mining companies have raised their quotations, and the port inquiry atmosphere is active. The chemical coke quotation has increased, and the manganese ore port quotation is stable. The cost side supports the manganese silicon price [37][50]. 3.2 Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Ferrosilicon supply has been increasing, with a weekly output of 11.45 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.14 tons, and a weekly operating rate of 35.33%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points. Ningxia region's factories maintain high - load operation [54][55]. - **Demand**: - From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remains at a high level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises this week is 90.86%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points from last week, and the average daily hot metal output is 242.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 tons. - Non - steel demand: In August, the stainless - steel crude steel output was 290.28 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.87 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.25%. The stainless - steel crude steel production plan for September is expected to increase by 4.4%. In August, the total output of magnesium metal was 6.95 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.58%. In August, the ferrosilicon export volume was 3.50 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% [70]. - **Inventory**: - As of September 26, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises is 61,460 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,930 tons. - The number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts is 17,373, a decrease of 255 week - on - week, with a converted inventory of 86,865 tons and a warehouse receipt destocking of 1,275 tons. - In September, the average available days of steel mills' ferrosilicon inventory is 15.52 days (+ 0.85 days) [71]. - **Cost**: The prices of semi - coke and oxidized iron scale have been rising, and the production cost in the north has increased month - on - month [75].

Summary of J.P. Morgan Aluminium Dashboard Industry Overview - **Industry**: Aluminium and Alumina Producers - **Global Demand**: Increased by 3% year-to-date (YTD) through July, with China up by 4% and the Rest of the World (RoW) up by 2% [1][15] - **Global Production**: Softer growth at 1.5% globally, with China at +2% and RoW flat [1] - **Global Inventories**: Remain low at approximately 1,125kt, but have increased by about 300kt since late June, still below 2024 levels and near decade lows for this time of year [1] Key Insights - **Alumina Prices**: Decreased from approximately $380/t in late July to $337/t at spot, with the alumina/aluminium linkage rate at 13%, below the average of 17% [1] - **Aluminium Prices**: Up by 5% YTD, with forward curves in slight contango [1] - **Market Outlook**: J.P. Morgan's Global Commodities Research team anticipates a balanced market this year and a mild surplus next year [1] Investment Recommendations - **Overweight Calls**: - Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN) - Norsk Hydro (NHY NO) - Press Metal (PMAH MK) [1] Financial Metrics of Key Companies - **Rio Tinto Ltd.**: - Market Cap: $108.3 billion - EV: $126.7 billion - Price Target: $123.0 (6% upside) - EV/EBITDA: 5.7 [4] - **Norsk Hydro**: - Market Cap: $13.1 billion - EV: $15.2 billion - Price Target: $73.0 (11% upside) - EV/EBITDA: 5.1 [4] - **Press Metal**: - Market Cap: $10.9 billion - EV: $11.8 billion - Price Target: $5.9 (6% upside) - EV/EBITDA: 16.3 [4] Consensus Estimates - **Rio Tinto NPAT**: - FY26: $9,661 million (1% below consensus) - FY27: $9,757 million (8% below consensus) [9] - **Norsk Hydro NPAT**: - FY26: $14,939 million (23% above consensus) - FY27: $11,972 million (15% below consensus) [9] Production and Demand Summary - **China Aluminium Production**: Expected to increase from 24.9 Mt in July 2024 to 25.4 Mt in July 2025 (2% increase) [15] - **Global Aluminium Demand**: Projected to rise from 41.4 Mt in July 2024 to 42.7 Mt in July 2025 (3% increase) [15] Additional Insights - **Alumina Production in China**: Expected to rise from 79.8 Mt in 2023 to 83.7 Mt in 2024 [17] - **Global Production Trends**: Year-to-date production shows a 2.6% increase globally, with specific regional variations [17] This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan Aluminium Dashboard, highlighting the current state and outlook of the aluminium industry, along with specific investment recommendations and financial metrics for key companies.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent surge in aluminum prices is driven by supply-side tensions, as indicated by significant withdrawal requests from LME warehouses, leading to a price breakout above 21,000 yuan per ton [1][3] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to improve due to a recovering Chinese economy and the growth in the new energy sector, with a projected consumption growth of 2.6% for the year [2][3] - The global electrolytic aluminum supply is anticipated to face a shortfall in 2026 and 2027, with a projected gap of approximately 25,000 tons and 33,000 tons respectively, despite an increase in production [4][5] Group 2 - The price of electrolytic aluminum has been trading as a dividend asset, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio generally between 8 and 10 times, and is expected to maintain a profit margin of 4,000 to 5,500 yuan per ton [5] - The global electrolytic aluminum production is expected to grow at rates of 2.15% and 1.72% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with significant contributions from new projects in Indonesia and Vietnam [4] - The current market conditions, including a low inventory level and ample liquidity due to the Fed's interest rate cuts, provide upward price elasticity for aluminum [2][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the alloy prices fluctuated. The increase in the cost side pushed the price center slightly higher, but Hegang's entry for inquiries may set the tone for the latest steel mill tenders, causing a slight market slowdown. Attention should be paid to Hegang's final quoted price [5]. - The resumption of production in steel mills after the military parade led to a recovery in hot metal production, supporting the demand for raw materials. The upward shift in the cost center provided short - term support for alloy prices [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Overall Market Situation - This week, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuated. The ferrosilicon 2511 contract closed at 5608 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 724,757 contracts traded and 217,964 contracts held (a decrease of 22,817 contracts week - on - week). The silicomanganese 2601 contract closed at 5832 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 729,357 contracts traded and 325,570 contracts held (an increase of 701 contracts week - on - week) [8]. - The spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions across the country stopped falling. The aggregated quotation for 75B ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5200 - 5330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The aggregated quotation range for silicomanganese in major regions was 5550 - 5800 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations of - 30 - 100 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Silicomanganese Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week's silicomanganese production was 21.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 tons (- 0.3%). The weekly operating rate was 46.45%, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points from last week. Inner Mongolia had some factory furnace shutdowns for maintenance, while supply in Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou continued to expand [16][20]. - **Demand**: From the performance of downstream steel mills, production gradually recovered after the military parade restrictions, and the actual output of downstream hot metal increased week - on - week. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.18%, an increase of 4.39 percentage points from last week; the average daily hot metal output was 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons week - on - week. However, the overall demand for silicomanganese weakened as the production of rebar decreased by 6.75 tons this week [22]. - **Inventory**: As of September 12, the number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 61,440, a decrease of 1,420 week - on - week, equivalent to a stock of 307,200 tons, with a warehouse receipt destocking of 7,100 tons. The average available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills in August was 14.98 days (+ 0.74 days). The inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises across the country was 166,800 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons week - on - week [29][30][33]. - **Cost and Price**: Overseas manganese ore enterprises' quotations were stable, and the port inquiry atmosphere was active. Affected by the firm port quotations of manganese ore and the increase in settlement electricity fees, the cost center shifted upward [36][51]. 3. Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week's ferrosilicon production was 11.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 tons (- 1.8%). The weekly operating rate was 34.84%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from last week. Production in Qinghai and Shaanxi decreased [55][60]. - **Demand**: From the performance of downstream steel mills, production gradually recovered after the military parade restrictions, and the actual output of downstream hot metal increased week - on - week. Non - steel demand also showed an upward trend. Ferrosilicon exports in July were 3.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [71]. - **Inventory**: As of September 12, the number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 16,465, a decrease of 1,844 week - on - week, equivalent to a stock of 82,325 tons, with a warehouse receipt destocking of 9,220 tons. The average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills in August was 14.67 days (+ 0.42 days). The inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises across the country was 69,940 tons, an increase of 3,380 tons week - on - week [73][74][78]. - **Cost and Price**: The increase in the settlement electricity price led to an increase in ferrosilicon production costs [82].

Summary of South32's Climate Change Action Plan Presentation Company Overview - **Company**: South32 - **Industry**: Mining and Metals Key Points and Arguments Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) - South32 is presenting its second CCAP, highlighting progress since the first plan released in February 2022 [3][4] - The company acknowledges the significant impact of climate change on the mining industry, affecting both the commodities produced and the methods of production [4][5] - The energy transition presents both opportunities (increased demand for critical minerals) and risks (energy intensity of metal processing) [4][5] Strategic Focus - South32 is focusing on positioning its portfolio for the energy transition, reducing operational emissions, and supporting emissions reduction across its value chain [5][6] - The company aims to achieve net zero operational emissions by 2050, with a target to halve net operational emissions by 2035 [6][12] - The portfolio has shifted from less than 50% revenue from aluminum and base metals in 2015 to approximately 90% today [7] Portfolio Development - Development of the Taylor deposit at the Hermosa project is expected to yield attractive returns by producing zinc, lead, and silver, which are critical minerals [8] - South32 is actively exploring new base metals mines and has exited lower-return businesses to focus on high-return opportunities [9] Emission Reduction Efforts - Over 90% of operational emissions come from the aluminum value chain, with significant contributions from Hillside and Worsley operations [14][15] - Hillside's emissions are primarily from coal-fired power, and the company is seeking affordable low-carbon energy solutions [16][18] - Worsley Alumina has reduced emissions through coal-to-gas boiler conversions, contributing to a 12% reduction in scope one emissions [19][20] Financial and Operational Resilience - The company is implementing a three-year climate adaptation and resilience plan to improve resilience to physical climate risks [22] - South32 is focused on engaging with stakeholders to secure low-carbon power and improve energy efficiency [30][46] Future Outlook - The company is committed to transparently reporting progress and addressing challenges related to climate change [25][26] - Key milestones include securing affordable electricity for Hillside by 2031 and continuing decarbonization efforts at Worsley [47][48] Additional Important Content - The geopolitical landscape of climate action is becoming more fragmented, increasing uncertainty for companies like South32 [5] - The company recognizes the importance of multi-stakeholder collaboration to achieve its climate goals [30][46] - South32 has reduced scope three emissions by around 80% since FY 2019, largely due to the sale of Illawarra metallurgical coal [21] - The company is actively assessing physical climate risks and their financial implications as part of its risk management processes [41][42] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of South32's climate strategy, operational focus, and future commitments in the context of climate change and the energy transition.