Core Insights - The report discusses the implementation of the "Tax Law Principle" and its implications for service industries such as internet and finance, indicating that current tax arrangements are unlikely to change significantly in the short term [2][3][12] - The real estate sector is experiencing a favorable shift in financing policies, with REITs and private placements opening new equity financing channels to alleviate financial pressures on real estate companies [3][13] Tax Law Implementation - The State Council approved the "Implementation Regulations of the Value-Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" on December 19, 2025, and subsequent announcements have clarified tax details, suggesting stability in tax arrangements for service industries [2][3][12] - The definition of "basic services" in telecommunications is evolving, with mobile data and internet broadband still classified as "value-added services" subject to a 6% VAT rate, while traditional voice services are recognized as "basic services" with a 9% VAT rate [2][3][12] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The financing environment for the real estate industry is improving, with a shift from debt financing to equity financing, including the introduction of REITs and private placements [3][13] - Recent regulatory changes, such as the gradual retreat from the "three red lines" policy, indicate a more supportive financing environment for real estate companies [13] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting the potential for recovery in the industry as financing policies become more favorable [3][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several quality real estate companies for investment, including China Jinmao, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land, among others, due to their potential for recovery and attractive valuations [13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving financing landscape and the impact of government policies on the real estate market [3][13]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint On February 2, the capital market remained balanced and stable, the bond market oscillated weakly, the main indexes of the convertible bond market declined collectively, most convertible bond issues fell, the yields of US Treasury bonds across all tenors generally rose, and the yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies generally rose [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: Premier Li Qiang emphasized promoting development, improving people's livelihoods, and enhancing the development potential in Shandong; the central government approved the "Modern Capital Metropolitan Area Spatial Collaborative Planning (2023 - 2035)", which is significant for Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei coordinated development; the "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring Festival'" event will be launched to boost consumption; the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued relevant tax management measures [4][5][8]. - **International News**: The US January ISM manufacturing PMI far exceeded expectations; the US and India reached a trade agreement to lower tariffs; international crude oil and natural gas prices declined [9][10][11]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open - market Operations**: On February 2, the central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a rate of 1.40%. With 1505 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan [13]. - **Funding Rates**: The capital market remained balanced and stable. DR001 rose 3.65bp to 1.364%, and DR007 fell 10.2bp to 1.491%. Other funding rates also showed changes [14]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds**: In the morning, the bond market was bullish due to the disappointing January PMI data, but then oscillated weakly. The yields of some bonds changed, such as the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250016's yield rising 0.50bp to 1.8150%. The bond bidding situation showed different issuance scales, yields, and multiples [15][16]. - **Credit Bonds**: Three industrial bonds had a trading price deviation of over 10%. There were also various credit - related events such as debt and guarantee overdue, investment negotiations, bond suspension and resumption, and rating adjustments [17][19]. - **Convertible Bonds**: The A - share market declined, and the convertible bond market followed suit. The main convertible bond indexes fell, and most individual convertible bonds declined. The trading volume of the convertible bond market shrank, and some bonds had significant price changes. Yifeng Convertible Bond may trigger the condition for downward adjustment of the conversion price [19][20][22]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **US Bond Market**: Yields of US Treasury bonds across all tenors generally rose, and the yield spreads of some maturities narrowed. The 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury bond (TIPS) break - even inflation rate declined [23][24][26]. - **European Bond Market**: Except for the 10 - year UK government bond yield, which declined 2bp, the 10 - year government bond yields of other major European economies generally rose [27]. - **Chinese - funded US - dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds showed significant differences among different issuers, with some rising and some falling [29].

分业务来说： 1. 招商蛇口全年业绩预期怎么样？ 截至2026年02月03日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据： 预测营业收入1467.41~1599.41亿元；预测净利润11.28~47.87亿元。 关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续A股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。 2. 招商蛇口最新卖方观点 东吴证券认为：招商蛇口2025年度业绩预告显示，预计归母净利润同比下降69%-75%，扣非净利润同比 下降91%-94%，主要受交付规模减少、减值计提增加和投资收益减少影响。尽管如此，公司销售金额和 均价均有所下降，但排名提升至行业第5名，显示核心城市市场地位稳固。2025年公司拿地规模同比增 长95.8%，权益拿地金额增长62.1%，持续优化土储结构。预计未来三年归母净利润将逐步修复，维 持"买入"评级。 1) 销售金额和均价：2025年公司实现全口径销售金额1960亿元，同比下降10.6%，销售均价为27686元/ 平方米，同比增长19.3%。 2) 拿地规模：2025年新增土地43宗，总规划建筑面积440.5万平方米，同比增长95.8%，总权益拿地金额 为542.6亿元，同比增长62.1%。 （ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [7] Core Insights - The new policy in Shanghai for acquiring second-hand housing aims to address the rental needs of new citizens, young people, and graduates, potentially stabilizing housing prices and boosting industry confidence [1][4] - The policy is expected to facilitate a balance between supply and demand in the real estate market by replacing new construction with stock acquisition, thus compressing the supply cycle for affordable rental housing [3] - The report highlights the importance of targeted housing supply strategies in key districts, focusing on small units and proximity to industrial areas to meet talent housing needs [2] Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - The report recommends investing in "three good" real estate companies with strong credit, good locations, and quality products, particularly those with quality reserves in Shanghai [5] - Specific companies highlighted include China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Longfor Group, among others, which are expected to benefit from the new policy and market recovery [9][10] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the new policy is not the first of its kind in China, with previous examples in cities like Zhengzhou, but it is expected to have a more significant impact in Shanghai due to its status as a core first-tier city [4] - The anticipated market stabilization is supported by a relatively market-oriented pricing mechanism for affordable rental housing, which could lead to sustainable commercial outcomes [4] Company Performance - Companies such as Greentown Service and Longfor Group are expected to maintain strong performance metrics, with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth and stable cash flow management [11][12] - The report emphasizes the operational capabilities of companies like China Resources Land and Longfor Group, which are positioned to navigate market adjustments effectively [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate sector, indicating a cautious outlook on new home sales and market dynamics [2] Core Insights - New home transactions have increased on a month-over-month basis, with Vanke's debt extension making progress [2] - The real estate index fell by 2.2%, ranking 18th among 31 sectors [9] - Significant year-over-year increases in new home and second-hand home transactions were noted, with new home sales up 591% and second-hand home sales up 1076% [23][28] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,227.95 billion and a circulating market value of 1,176.70 billion [2] Sales Performance - In the fifth week, the average daily transaction area for new homes in 20 cities increased by 28% month-over-month, totaling 187 million square meters, with a year-over-year increase of 591% [23][27] - The average daily transaction area for second-hand homes in 11 cities was 30.8 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 1% month-over-month but a significant year-over-year increase of 1076% [28][31] Policy News - Local policies in Nanjing and Tianjin have been introduced to enhance housing fund utilization and increase loan limits, aiming to stimulate the real estate market [19][21] Company Dynamics - Vanke A has made progress in extending its debt, with 40% of its mid-term notes being repaid, while China Merchants Shekou anticipates a significant decline in net profit for 2025 [22][19] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate market: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable income-generating assets like leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies that enhance transaction efficiency [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of commercial real estate REITs is seen as a significant step towards stabilizing and improving expectations in the real estate industry, facilitating a shift from developers to asset managers and enhancing the value of existing commercial assets [2][4][10]. Group 1: Policy and Market Response - The first batch of eight commercial real estate REITs has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a total expected fundraising amount exceeding 30 billion yuan [2][4]. - The regulatory framework for commercial real estate REITs was officially introduced by the end of 2025, emphasizing support for assets with clear ownership and stable cash flows [3][8]. - The response from the industry has been positive, with significant participation from major developers and a wide range of asset types being included [4][9]. Group 2: Asset Types and Market Dynamics - The accepted REITs include various asset types such as hotels, office buildings, shopping centers, and service apartments, indicating a broadening of the asset categories eligible for REITs [2][4][5]. - The expansion of asset types allows previously self-held assets to have a channel for securitization, enhancing market liquidity and pricing capabilities [5][10]. - The inclusion of non-first-tier city assets in the REITs framework is expected to improve their market recognition and liquidity [5][10]. Group 3: Strategic Shift in Real Estate - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs is viewed as a transition from a "development and sales" model to a "holding and operation" model, promoting asset management as a core competency [10][11]. - The REITs framework encourages developers to retain partial equity in projects, ensuring operational stability while allowing for market-based fundraising [11]. - The shift towards REITs is seen as a necessary adaptation for the real estate industry, which is currently undergoing significant adjustments [10][11].

证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 房地产行业周报（2026 年第 5 周） 推荐（维持） 新房成交环比上涨，万科债务展期获新进展 行业研究 房地产 2026 年 02 月 03 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,279.48 | 0.99 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,766.97 | 1.17 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 1.8% | 5.3% | 9.6% | | 相对表现 | 2.4% | -8.3% | -11.0% | -7% 4% 15% 26% 25/0 ...

政策 ◼ 1）根据上交所官网，1 月 29 日-30 日，已有 8 只商业不动产 REITs 申报至交易 所（分别为华安锦江商业、中金唯品会商业、汇添富上海地产商业、国泰海通砂 之船商业、华安陆家嘴商业、华夏凯德商业、华夏银泰百货商业、华夏保利发展 商业不动产 REITs），预计募集总额 314.7 亿元，涵盖酒店、写字楼与配套商业、 奥特莱斯、购物中心、服务式公寓等多种商业业态，原始权益人有保利发展、上 海地产、陆家嘴、凯德投资、银泰百货、锦江国际、唯品会、砂之船（西安）。 2）根据财联社报道，多家房企目前已经不被监管部分要求每月上报"三条红线"指 标，不过部分出险房企被要求向总部所在城市专班组定期汇报资产负债率等财务 指标。2020 年 8 月，监管部门为控制房企有息负债规模，对房企设置了融资"三条 红线"，不过近几年基本已经不被提及。 投资建议 房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 房地产行业第 5 周周报（2026 年 1 月 24 日-2026 年 1 月 30 日） 受去年同期为春节的影响，楼市成交同比正增长；首批 商业不动产 REITs 已申报至交易所 新房成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a potential investment return that exceeds the market benchmark index by 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Insights - As of early 2026, multiple regions have initiated old housing acquisitions, significantly accelerating the "old-for-new" program, supported by a reduction in the central bank's one-year relending rate from 1.5% to 1.25% [1][3]. - Local governments are actively engaging in funding through various means, including fiscal support and bank loans, to facilitate the acquisition and renovation of old housing, thereby enhancing the supply of affordable rental housing [3]. - The report highlights that the government's direct acquisition of second-hand old houses is an effective measure to streamline the housing exchange process, reduce the exchange cycle, and simplify procedures, ultimately promoting the sales of new homes [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Old Housing Acquisition - The "old-for-new" service has been launched in various cities, with Shanghai and Hangzhou being notable examples where initial registrations have been completed and dynamic waiting lists established for families wishing to participate [1][2]. - Specific focus areas include older properties in urban centers, with clear ownership and reasonable pricing, aimed at facilitating housing exchanges for those in need [2]. Section 2: Market Dynamics - By the end of 2025, public funds held a mere 0.43% of their stock investment value in the real estate sector, indicating a significant underweight compared to standard industry allocation [4]. - The report suggests that high-energy cities are likely to benefit from urban renewal initiatives, leading to structural optimization and gradual stabilization of the market [5]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main investment lines: 1. Real estate companies with strong credit advantages and high product reputation in core cities, such as China Merchants Shekou and China Jinmao [5]. 2. Public REITs with rich existing resources and strong operational brand competitiveness, such as China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [5]. 3. Long-term growth potential in property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jiyu and Greentown Service [5].

Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown a decline of 2.1% over the past week, ranking 17th among 29 sectors in the market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and the Wind All A index experienced changes of 0.1% and -1.6% respectively [5][38]. - New home sales in 36 cities reached 1.425 million square meters last week, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 14.2% and a year-on-year increase of 146.5%. However, cumulative sales from January 1 to January 30 totaled 5.398 million square meters, down 30.3% year-on-year [5][10]. - The second-hand housing market saw a total transaction area of 1.706 million square meters across 15 cities last week, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.7% but a significant year-on-year increase of 744.4%. Cumulative sales for the same period reached 6.739 million square meters, up 15.8% year-on-year [5][16]. Real Estate Market Conditions - The inventory of new homes in 13 cities stands at 7.7738 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The average de-stocking period is 23.0 months, which is stable compared to the previous week but has increased by 6.7 months year-on-year [5][24]. - In terms of land transactions, the total area sold in 100 cities from January 26 to February 1 was 1.7955 million square meters, marking a week-on-week increase of 49.2% and a year-on-year increase of 419.7%. The average land price was 979 yuan per square meter, down 28.0% week-on-week and down 74.4% year-on-year [5][32]. Investment Recommendations - For mainland developers, the report recommends companies such as Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou in A-shares, and China Overseas Development and Greentown China in Hong Kong stocks, highlighting that sales growth expectations post-market recovery will drive valuation improvements [5][9]. - Light asset operation companies are also recommended, as they are expected to maintain stable fundamentals during the downturn. Suggested companies include Greentown Service for property management and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle for commercial management [5][9]. - For Hong Kong developers, the report suggests focusing on companies like Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development, which are expected to benefit from a recovering residential sales market [5][9]. Financing Conditions - In the realm of domestic credit bonds, real estate companies issued a total of 8 bonds last week, amounting to 4.96 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 42.9% week-on-week but an increase of 346.3% year-on-year. The net financing amount was -3.97 billion yuan due to repayments totaling 8.93 billion yuan [5][36].