1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the sentiment of interest - rate bonds was strong with slightly declining yields, and credit bond yields generally followed suit. The 10 - year ultra - long - term credit bonds performed strongly, and the spreads of secondary perpetual (Two - Perpetual, or "Two - Yong") bonds narrowed across the board. The excess spreads of industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds decreased slightly. [3][4] - Vanke's debt extension plan was better than expected, leading to an increase in the secondary prices of its outstanding bonds. However, due to the lack of unexpected industry support policies and the will to ensure rigid payment, the market remains cautious about central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds with the "high - debt, high - leverage, and high - turnover" model. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards real - estate bonds in the short term. [5][40] - After the New Year, the performance of Two - Yong bonds was strong. The growth of dividend - insurance premium income may have increased the demand for ultra - long - term Two - Yong bonds, causing a significant decline in yields. Considering the central bank's strong intention to support the market, there may still be room for the spreads of Two - Yong bonds to compress. [5][40] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Credit Bonds Follow Interest Rates Downward, Ultra - Long - Term Credit Bonds Perform Strongly - Interest - rate bond yields: The yields of 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds decreased by 2BP, 4BP, 3BP, and 1BP respectively, while the 1Y yield increased by 2BP. [3][11] - Credit bond yields: Overall, they followed the decline in interest rates. The yields of 1Y AA+ and above - grade credit bonds remained flat, while those of other grades decreased by 1BP; 3Y AA+ and above - grade yields decreased by 1BP, and other grades decreased by 3 - 4BP; 5Y AA+ grade yields decreased by 5BP, and other grades decreased by 1 - 2BP; 7Y credit bond yields of all grades decreased by 2 - 3BP; 10Y AA+ and above - grade yields decreased by 4 - 5BP, and AA grade decreased by 2BP. [3][11] - Credit spreads: Generally stable, with the 10 - year ultra - long - term credit performing strongly. The spreads of 1Y all grades narrowed by 1 - 2BP; 3Y AA+ and above spreads remained flat, and other grades narrowed by 2 - 3BP; 5Y AA+ spreads narrowed by 2BP, and other grades widened by 1 - 2BP; 7Y AAA spreads remained flat, and other grades widened by 1BP; 10Y AA+ and above spreads narrowed by 3 - 4BP, and AA grade spreads narrowed by 1BP. [3][11] 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads Mostly Decline by 0 - 1BP - By external rating: The credit spreads of external - rated AAA - level urban investment platforms generally remained flat, while those of AA and AA+ levels generally decreased by 1BP. [4][16] - By administrative level: The credit spreads of provincial and municipal - level platforms generally remained flat compared with last week, while those of district - county - level platforms decreased by 1BP. [4][22] 3.3 Industrial Bond Spreads Remain Stable Overall, Vanke's Spreads Compress Significantly - Real - estate bonds: Central - state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads widened by 9BP, state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads widened by 4BP, mixed - ownership real - estate bond spreads converged significantly by 451BP, and private - enterprise real - estate bond spreads increased by 14BP. Vanke's spreads decreased by 4285BP. [4][27] - Other industrial bonds: AAA - grade coal bond spreads remained flat, and other grades decreased by 1BP; AA+ steel bond spreads decreased by 3BP, and AAA remained flat; the spreads of all grades of chemical bonds remained flat. [4][27] 3.4 Two - Yong Bond Spreads Narrow Across the Board, Yields of Medium - and Long - Term Varieties Decline Significantly - 1Y Two - Yong bonds: Yields of all grades decreased by 1BP, and spreads compressed by 2BP. - 3Y Two - Yong bonds: Yields of all grades decreased by 5 - 6BP, and spreads compressed by 3 - 5BP. - 5Y Two - Yong bonds: Yields of all grades decreased by 5 - 6BP, and spreads compressed by 1 - 2BP. [35] 3.5 Excess Spreads of Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Decrease Slightly - Industrial AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds: Excess spreads converged by 0.43BP to 14.41BP, at the 36.98% quantile since 2015. - Industrial 5Y perpetual bonds: Excess spreads remained the same as last week at 13.20BP, at the 32.28% quantile since 2015. - Urban investment AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds: Excess spreads decreased by 0.13BP to 4.51BP, at the 3.52% quantile. - Urban investment 5Y perpetual bonds: Excess spreads decreased by 0.79BP to 10.13BP, at the 18.64% quantile. [38] 3.6 Vanke's Extension Plan is Better than Expected, Two - Yong Bond Spreads Still Have Compression Space - Vanke: Its debt extension plan was better than expected, and the secondary prices of its outstanding bonds increased. However, due to the lack of relevant policies, the market is still cautious about central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds, and it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term. [5][40] - Two - Yong bonds: After the New Year, they performed strongly. The growth of dividend - insurance premium income may have increased the demand for ultra - long - term Two - Yong bonds. Considering the central bank's support, there may still be room for spread compression. [5][40] 3.7 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market credit spreads, Two - Yong spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical quantiles starting from the beginning of 2015. - Urban investment and industrial bond - related credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by Huafu Securities Research Institute, with historical quantiles starting from the beginning of 2015. - Sample selection criteria: Industrial and urban investment bonds select medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bonds, excluding guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds. Bonds with a remaining term of less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years are excluded from the statistical sample. Industrial and urban investment bonds use external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implied debt ratings. [46]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the coal industry is currently experiencing a transformation, with policies aimed at energy security and a shift in supply dynamics. The coal price is expected to stabilize, with potential fluctuations in the short term [5][6] - The report highlights the limited elasticity of coal supply due to strict capacity controls and increasing mining difficulties, particularly in eastern regions. This is expected to lead to a concentration of production in western areas, raising supply costs [5] - The report suggests that despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs will support coal prices, which are anticipated to maintain a volatile upward trend [5] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 3.11%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.54 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has increased by 2.96% [13] 2. Thermal Coal - As of January 16, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 695 CNY/ton, down 4 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 66 CNY/ton [3][32] - Daily average production from 462 sample mines is 5.467 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [3][42] - The report notes a significant drop in daily consumption at major power plants, with inventory levels slightly increasing [3][46] 3. Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port has risen to 1,770 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 150 CNY/ton [4][76] - Daily average production from 523 sample mines is 769,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [4][76] - The report indicates that the coking coal market is experiencing upward price adjustments, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from steel production [4][76] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from a bottoming coal price cycle are also highlighted, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6] - The report recommends considering companies with integrated coal and power operations to mitigate cyclical volatility, such as Shaanxi Energy and Xinji Energy [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to experience a recovery in demand due to a cold wave, which may stimulate heating needs and lead to increased procurement [7]. - The report highlights that the coal price is likely to stabilize and potentially increase in the latter part of January, driven by a combination of steady supply and moderate demand recovery [7]. - The investment strategy suggests positioning in coal stocks that have shown resilience and potential for growth, particularly those with strong dividend yields and low valuations [8]. Summary by Sections Basic Conditions - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,905.163 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,857.669 billion yuan [2]. Key Company Performance - Major companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal are highlighted for their strong earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with recommendations to buy or hold based on their growth potential [5]. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes fluctuations in coal prices, with a recent increase in coking coal prices by 150 yuan/ton, while thermal coal prices have seen a slight decline [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from sample mines is reported at 5.467 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.28% [8]. Inventory and Supply Chain - Coal inventory levels at major ports have increased, with a total of 27.012 million tons reported as of January 17, indicating a year-on-year increase of 5.50% [7]. - The report anticipates a tightening supply in the near term due to ongoing safety inspections and the upcoming holiday season affecting production [7]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment lines: 1. Companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, such as China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy [8]. 2. Companies with growth potential based on their production capacity, such as Yancoal Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal [8]. 3. Companies positioned for recovery in coking coal prices, including Lu'an Huanneng and Pingmei Shenma [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including 晋控煤业, 山煤国际, 潞安环能, 华阳股份, 兖矿能源, 中国神华, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中广核矿业 [3][4]. Core Insights - The coal prices are expected to remain strong due to a combination of cold weather and pre-holiday stockpiling, with prices projected to fluctuate between 750-1000 RMB/ton [10][12]. - The report highlights a recovery in coal prices post-New Year, driven by reduced production and low inventory levels at ports [10][12]. - The focus is on companies with high spot market exposure and improved balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has completed overproduction governance for 2024 [10][12]. - The report suggests that downstream replenishment has begun, leading to a stable to slightly strong outlook for coking coal prices [10][12]. - The first round of price increases for coke is anticipated due to rising raw material costs and improved steel mill profitability [10][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The coal sector experienced a weekly decline of 3.3%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [18][21]. - The best-performing stocks included 云维股份 and 江钨装备, while 大有能源 faced the largest decline [24][26]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that Mongolia's coal exports increased by 7.11% year-on-year, while Australia's coal export value decreased by 13.48% [28][32]. - China's coal imports rose by 11.94% in December 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating a recovery in demand [34][34]. Company Performance - New集能源 reported a 3.01% increase in raw coal production for 2025, while 中煤能源 saw an 8.0% decrease in December's coal production [44][45]. - 大有能源 projected a significant net loss for 2025, highlighting the challenges faced by the company in the current market environment [46][51].

Core Viewpoint - Jin Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in stock price and financial performance, with significant decreases in revenue and net profit year-on-year, indicating potential challenges in the coal industry [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 16, Jin Energy's stock price fell by 2.03%, trading at 13.97 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 23.38 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 6.24%, but it has decreased by 3.66% over the last five trading days and by 9.23% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Jin Energy reported a revenue of 9.32 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 16.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.28 billion CNY, down 40.65% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulatively, the company has distributed 6.08 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.64 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder and Institutional Holdings - As of January 9, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 7.41% to 50,000, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 8.00% to 33,474 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, the Guotai CSI Coal ETF increased its holdings by 20.24 million shares, while other significant shareholders like the Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Wan Jia Selected A reduced their holdings [3].

2019-2025年1-11月采矿业企业数统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 上市公司：甘肃能化（000552），新大洲Ａ（000571），冀中能源（000937），蓝焰控股（000968）， 山西焦煤（000983），电投能源（002128），首华燃气（300483），郑州煤电（600121），兰花科创 （600123），兖矿能源（600188），晋控煤业（601001），中国神华（601088），昊华能源 （601101），陕西煤业（601225） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国采矿业市场竞争态势及投资方向分析报告》 2025年1-11月，采矿业企业数（以下数据涉及的企业，均为规模以上工业企业，从2011年起，规模以上 工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务收入2000万元）为12866个，和上 年同期相比，增加了23个，同比增长0.18%，占工业总企业的比重为2.45%。 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 ...

Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,138.76, down 0.64% [4] - The CSI 300 Index experienced a decrease of 0.60%, closing at 4,761.03 [4] Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector reported a weekly performance with the CSI 300 Index increasing by 2.79% and the agriculture sector rising by 0.98%, ranking 28th among sectors [6] - Pig prices increased week-on-week, with average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan at 13.10, 12.86, and 12.93 CNY/kg respectively, showing a mixed trend [6] - The average pork price was 17.97 CNY/kg, up 1.18% from the previous week, while the average wholesale price for piglets rose by 6.45% to 16.50 CNY/kg [6] - The self-breeding and self-raising profit margin was -11.54 CNY per head, a reduction of approximately 23.05 CNY per head from the previous week [6] - The report suggests focusing on Hai Da Group due to favorable conditions in the feed industry and its competitive advantages in the market [6] Livestock Industry Trends - The pig farming industry has entered a loss phase, prompting a new round of capacity reduction driven by market forces and policy adjustments [6] - The number of breeding sows is expected to decrease rapidly, indicating a trend towards capacity reduction in the first half of the year [6] - Companies such as Wen's Foodstuffs, Shennong Group, and New Hope are recommended for investment due to their potential recovery in fundamentals and valuations [6] Poultry Sector Developments - Shengnong Development's breeding chicken business is progressing steadily, with cost control measures leading to reduced production costs [6] - The company is enhancing its revenue structure by increasing its presence in high-value channels [6] Pet Food Market Outlook - The pet food sector is anticipated to continue growing, with increasing penetration rates in pet ownership [6] - The competition is shifting from marketing to research and supply chain efficiency, suggesting a focus on brands that prioritize R&D [6] Coal Industry Analysis - The coal market is maintaining normal production levels, with a gradual recovery in supply as coal mines resume operations [8] - The demand from downstream sectors remains limited, leading to a stable but weak market outlook [8] - Investment recommendations include companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Shenhua Energy, with a focus on potential recovery in Q4 performance [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [30]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal prices are expected to remain elevated due to persistent cold weather and improving demand, with power coal prices showing a week-on-week increase [1][6]. - The report notes that the supply side is tightening due to safety inspections and environmental checks in major production areas, which is expected to support coal prices [1][5]. - The report recommends stable, high-dividend companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, while also suggesting attention to growth-oriented coal companies [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - A national safety production meeting was held to enhance safety measures in coal mining, emphasizing a systematic approach to safety governance [5]. - A new coal transportation route from Longkou to Guangzhou has been established, which is significant for energy security and regional economic development [5]. Price Trends - As of January 9, 2026, power coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were reported at 526, 613, and 699 CNY/ton for different grades, reflecting week-on-week increases [1]. - The report indicates that the average daily consumption of coal has improved, with a noted increase in coal output from production areas [1][2]. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased to 63.34 USD/barrel, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 4.26%, which may influence coal prices [11]. Port Inventory Trends - The average daily coal inflow at the Bohai Rim ports increased to 1.4613 million tons, while the outflow also saw a slight increase, indicating a dynamic supply-demand balance [16]. - Port inventories decreased to 26.727 million tons, a reduction of 2.91% week-on-week, suggesting tightening supply conditions [16]. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs decreased to 31.90 CNY/ton, while international shipping rates showed mixed trends, with some routes experiencing price increases [22]. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating their stock prices, market capitalizations, and projected earnings ratios for the upcoming years [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal production remains normal, with a gradual recovery in coking coal supply as coal mines resume normal operations. However, seasonal demand is weak, leading to a short-term stable outlook. The report highlights the ongoing trend of "anti-involution" and anticipates performance improvement in Q4, suggesting that if prices remain high, there is still room for recovery in 2026 [6][4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The coal market has shown a stable performance over the past year, with specific focus on the dynamics of thermal and metallurgical coal [2] 2. Thermal Coal - The market maintains normal production and sales, with limited downstream demand. As of January 9, the reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 701 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of +2.04%. The total coal inventory at northern ports is 24.07 million tons, reflecting a weekly increase of +6.69% [4] 3. Metallurgical Coal - The recovery of coal production is underway, with coking coal supply slightly improving. However, downstream demand remains weak, with the main focus on just-in-time inventory replenishment. As of January 9, the price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,620 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [5] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the thermal coal sector such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, China Shenhua Energy, and others. For coking coal, companies like Shanxi Coking Coal and Huabei Mining are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6] 5. Industry Dynamics - The report tracks dynamic data in the coal industry, indicating that the coking coal market is stabilizing while steel mills are gradually resuming operations. The overall sentiment in the coal futures market is improving, with coking coal prices showing an upward trend [49][69]

Summary of Jin控煤业 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jin控煤业 - **Industry**: Coal Mining Key Points Dividend Policy - Jin控煤业 expects to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 40%-50% for 2026, with specific plans to be discussed in March or April [2][4] Pricing and Sales - The company has implemented a new pricing model in some regions, using a base price plus a floating price for monthly adjustments, while the Dazhong Tashan area continues with the original pricing mechanism [2][6] - Coal prices are expected to remain supported in 2026, projected between 670-850 RMB/ton, ensuring profitability for coal enterprises [5][15] - The average coal price for the company from January to November 2026 is approximately 430 RMB/ton, a decrease of about 60 RMB/ton year-on-year [5][18] Production Capacity and Quality - The Shalian coal mine has completed the necessary procedures for an 800 million ton capacity increase, but coal quality is currently poor due to geological issues, leading to lower sales prices [2][7] - Tashan area production remains stable with no significant changes [2][8] - The company has not yet determined specific production plans for 2026, with Tashan's long-term coal supply stable and primarily directed towards power plants [2][12] Long-term Contracts - The long-term coal supply contract for Shalian has decreased to 5.7 million tons due to low fulfillment rates from the previous year, where only 3.23 million tons were realized [2][12] Regulatory Environment - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Shanxi Province may introduce assessment indicators for listed companies to promote capital operations [2][11] - There is a lack of effective punitive measures for power plants regarding low fulfillment rates of coal contracts, despite various constraints on coal enterprises [2][13] Market Dynamics - The recovery of coal export tariffs is expected to suppress the increase in imported coal volumes, contributing to a stable market outlook [5][16] - The overall supply may be impacted by resource depletion and increased mining difficulties, with weather factors being significant variables [5][15] Cost Structure - The company's cost levels are expected to remain stable or slightly decrease, with costs around 330 RMB/ton in the first three quarters [5][19] Future Developments - The asset injection from the group has been delayed due to high performance commitment requirements from the exchange, with new leadership potentially affecting decision-making [2][9][10] Conclusion - Jin控煤业 is navigating a complex regulatory and market environment while maintaining a focus on production stability and profitability, with strategic discussions on dividends and long-term contracts forthcoming.