Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The report indicates a gradual recovery in the food and beverage sector, with soft drinks and snacks leading the recovery, followed by the catering supply chain, condiments, dairy products, beer, and finally, liquor [2][9][10] - The analysis draws parallels with Japan's 1990s consumption differentiation, highlighting that successful industries often address demand pain points and have low penetration rates [10][11] - Investment strategies focus on sectors with stabilizing ROA and potential valuation recovery, emphasizing price as the primary selection logic, while volume is secondary [11][12] Group 2: Construction and Building Materials - The construction sector is expected to experience a "spring rally" in 2026, supported by historical investment patterns and major national projects [13][14] - The report highlights three core investment themes: major national projects, high-dividend low-valuation state-owned enterprises, and private construction firms leveraging cash flow for new growth areas [14][15] - Infrastructure investment data shows a decline in both narrow and broad infrastructure investment, indicating a need for policy support to stabilize the sector [15][16] Group 3: Real Estate Industry - The real estate sector continues to face pressure, with significant declines in new housing sales and investment, despite government efforts to promote high-quality development [18][20] - The report notes that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes maintaining a balance in supply and demand, which is crucial for economic stability [20][22] - Specific data indicates a 31.4% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment and a 26.1% drop in sales revenue, highlighting ongoing challenges in the market [20][21] Group 4: Electronics and Robotics - The report on Changying Precision emphasizes the introduction of employee stock ownership and stock option plans to enhance long-term development confidence and attract core talent [23][24] - The company is positioned as a leader in solder paste printing equipment, with a focus on high-end product demand driven by AI trends [33][34] - New product lines, including dispensing and packaging equipment, are expected to contribute to growth, with significant revenue increases anticipated [34][36] Group 5: Media Industry - The report on Giant Legend highlights the rapid growth of its IPs, particularly the "Zhou Classmate" and "Liu Genghong," which have gained substantial popularity on social media platforms [28][29] - The company is expanding its strategic investments to enhance collaboration with international stars and develop consumer products linked to its IPs [29][30] - Future growth is expected through a diversified approach that integrates emotional value into various products and experiences, positioning the company as a "disseminator of happiness" [30][31] Group 6: Mechanical and Building Materials - The report on Kaige Precision Machine outlines the company's leadership in solder paste printing equipment and its expansion into new product categories driven by AI [33][34] - The company is expected to see significant growth in its new product lines, including flexible automation equipment, which are crucial for enhancing manufacturing efficiency [34][36] - Profit forecasts indicate strong growth potential, with expected net profits increasing significantly over the next few years [36]

证券研究报告：食品饮料|点评报告 发布时间：2025-12-25 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 16521.46 | | 52 | 周最高 | 18638.17 | | 52 | 周最低 | 16379.5 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 食品饮料 沪深300 ⚫ 投资要点 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《政策利好叠加周期拐点预期，乳制品 板块表现强势》 - 2025.12.2 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 25 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 食品饮料行业点评 深加工是中国乳业的发展方向 ——对欧盟乳制品征收反补贴政策点评 相关研究： | 1.《品类创新扬帆，穿越液奶周期 | | | --- | --- | | ——伊利股份2026年经销商大会 | | | 点评》 | 2025.12.19 | | 2.《妙可蓝多：品牌破圈，国产替 | | | 代加速》 | 2025.11.28 | | 3.《板块情绪回暖，估值极具性价 | | | 比》 | 2025.11.24 | 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 | 相对收益 | -3.8% | 0.3% | -22.9% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对收益 | 4.4% | 1.4% | -13.7% | | | | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 | | 分析师：张弛 证书编号：S0500525110001 Tel：17621838100 Email：zc08241@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 ❑ 首先利好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guoyuan International indicates that with the gradual stabilization of domestic dairy product demand and the implementation of countervailing measures, there is an expected increase in the demand for raw milk, suggesting a potential investment opportunity in Youran Dairy (09858) [1] Group 1: Countervailing Measures - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced a preliminary ruling on December 22, 2024, to implement temporary countervailing duties on dairy products imported from the EU starting December 23, 2025 [2] - The countervailing investigation began in July 2024, initiated by the China Dairy Industry Association and the China Dairy Products Industry Association, citing substantial damage to the domestic industry due to EU subsidies [2] - The preliminary evidence indicates that the EU provided significant subsidies to its dairy sector, leading to a causal relationship with the damage to the Chinese domestic industry, resulting in a countervailing duty range of 21.9%-42.7% on various dairy products [2] Group 2: Impact on Supply and Demand - The implementation of countervailing measures is expected to increase import prices, which may help restore the balance between supply and demand for raw milk in China [2] - In the first ten months of 2025, China imported 2.1824 million tons of various dairy products, with cheese, cream, and sour cream accounting for 156,000 tons, 118,100 tons, and 214,500 tons respectively, with the EU being a significant supplier [2] - The countervailing measures are anticipated to weaken the price advantage of imported dairy products, potentially reducing overseas supply and promoting a return to supply-demand equilibrium in the domestic raw milk industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huayuan Securities indicates a recovery sequence in the food and beverage industry, with soft drinks and snacks leading the recovery, followed by the catering supply chain, condiments, dairy products, beer, and finally, liquor [1][2]. Group 1: Recovery Sequence Analysis - The recovery rhythm of different consumption sectors shows both differences and commonalities, driven by industry supply-demand dynamics and supply chain structures [2]. - The commonality lies in the prevailing competition in the existing market, where companies focus on increasing sales to digest capacity and enhance operational efficiency [2]. - ROA (Return on Assets) is identified as a leading indicator for the operational recovery of consumer enterprises, with a detailed analysis of the stages of enterprise and channel adjustments [2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Insights - An analysis of Japan's consumption differentiation in the 1990s reveals that industries that can capture structural opportunities typically meet two conditions: addressing demand pain points and having low penetration rates [3]. - The rapid development of cost-effective options and health-oriented niche categories in Japan during that period illustrates the potential for growth in low-penetration sectors [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - From a pricing perspective, rising CPI may lead to valuation recovery in traditional industries with higher penetration rates, such as liquor, beer, and dairy products, which are expected to attract incremental capital [4]. - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies in these sectors, such as Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yili Group [4]. - From a volume perspective, companies with high supply chain efficiency in cost-effective consumption are likely to see volume growth, with specific recommendations for companies in the catering supply chain and soft drinks [4].

Summary of Youran Dairy (9858.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Youran Dairy** is a leading player in the dairy industry, recognized as the largest raw milk provider globally in terms of dairy cow herd size and production volume as of 2020. The company was spun off from Yili and went public in Hong Kong in June 2021 [28][29]. Industry Context - **EU Dairy Product Tariff**: China has imposed provisional duties of 21.9-42.7% on certain EU dairy products, effective December 23, 2025. This primarily affects cheese and whipping cream, which constitute 20.7% of EU's market share in China [1][2]. - **Impact on Imports**: The EU accounted for 28.3% of China's dairy product imports in the first ten months of 2025, with cheese and whipping cream making up 9.1% and 1.6% of imports by raw milk equivalent volume [2][11]. Key Insights - **Raw Milk Oversupply**: China's raw milk supply has seen a surplus of 1-2 million tons in 2025, down from 3-4 million tons in 2024. The targeted EU dairy products import is estimated to be equivalent to ~0.8 million tons of raw milk, which could be replaced by domestic production, thus alleviating oversupply [3][17]. - **Domestic Demand for Solid Dairy Products**: The demand for deep-processed solid dairy products like whey, cheese, and butter has been growing, driven by high-end bakery and catering sectors. In 2024, China imported about 1 million tons of these products, with continued growth observed in 2025 [4][17]. - **Youran's Customer Development**: Youran's major customer, Yili, has established a solid dairy product production line with a daily capacity of 600 tons, which could substitute 15% of raw milk equivalent import volume at full utilization [4]. Financial Performance - **Earnings Summary**: - 2023: Net Profit -739 million RMB, Diluted EPS -0.195 RMB - 2024: Net Profit -691 million RMB, Diluted EPS -0.180 RMB - 2025E: Net Profit 541 million RMB, Diluted EPS 0.141 RMB (growth of 178.2%) [5][10]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - P/E ratio for 2025E is projected at 30.6, with a P/B ratio of 1.4 and ROE of 4.7% [5][10]. Market Outlook - **Target Price and Return**: The target price for Youran Dairy is set at HK$5.40, indicating an expected share price return of 13.2% [6][10]. - **Market Capitalization**: Youran Dairy's market cap is approximately HK$18.568 billion (US$2.387 billion) [6][10]. Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks**: Potential risks include lower-than-expected raw milk prices, reliance on the business performance of key customers, disease outbreaks at dairy farms, trade frictions affecting forage imports, and food safety issues [31]. Conclusion - Youran Dairy is positioned to benefit from the structural changes in the dairy market due to the EU tariff, which may enhance domestic raw milk demand. The company's strategic developments in solid dairy products and its strong market position suggest a positive outlook for future growth.

Livestock Sector - The pig farming industry is entering a "new cost competition pattern," with overall micro-profitability expected in 2025, and leading companies becoming stronger [1] - The production capacity of breeding sows is at a reasonable high level, with policy guidance aimed at reduction, leading to weaker price fluctuations [1] - Key companies to focus on include Muyuan Foods (牧原股份), Wens Foodstuff Group (温氏股份), and Lihua Agricultural (立华股份) [1] Beef Cattle Industry - The beef cattle industry is experiencing a deep supply clearance, similar to the pig industry before 2019, with significant risks of overcapacity due to prolonged losses [2] - In November 2024, the loss per head reached over 1,600 yuan, marking eight consecutive months of losses exceeding 1,000 yuan, prompting accelerated culling of breeding cows [2] - The cow production cycle (PSY) is only 1, significantly lower than the breeding sow PSY of 30, indicating a substantial reduction in beef supply expected by 2026 [2] - Recommended stocks include Youran Dairy (优然牧业) and Fucheng Group (福成股份) [2] Edible Mushroom Industry - The industry is seeing a rational return of production capacity, with leading companies solidifying their market positions [3] - The artificial cultivation of Cordyceps is entering a performance release phase, opening a second growth curve [3] - Traditional products like enoki mushrooms are experiencing alleviated overcapacity, with stable CR5 [3]

Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the asset allocation strategy in a low-interest-rate environment, emphasizing the need to balance yield chasing and safety due to long-term low interest rates and limited supply of safe assets [5] - It highlights the importance of understanding asset characteristics quantitatively to identify quality assets, suggesting a strategy of "long cycle direction, mid-cycle selection, and short cycle entry points" [5] Industry and Company Electronics Industry - The electronics sector is experiencing continued inflation in upstream components, with a recommendation to focus on storage and computing power as performance forecasts are released [6] - The report notes a recent decline in the electronics sector, with a 3.28% drop in the past week, attributed to reduced government subsidies and supply chain issues [6] - Micron's recent performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue increase of 21% quarter-over-quarter and 55% year-over-year, indicating strong growth potential in the storage industry [6] Agriculture Industry - The report indicates a significant upward trend in beef prices, with an increase of 16% from the year's low, while fresh milk prices have decreased by approximately 3% [12][13] - It suggests that the beef market is entering a cycle of recovery, with a projected supply shortage expected to last until 2028 due to reduced production capacity [13] - The dairy market is at a low point but is expected to improve in 2026, with signs of supply reversal emerging [13] Semiconductor Equipment - Global semiconductor equipment sales are projected to grow by 13.7% in 2025, with NAND equipment expected to see a significant increase of 45.4% [8] - The report emphasizes the ongoing investment in advanced logic, storage, and packaging equipment driven by AI-related demand [8] Automotive Industry - The report notes that China has approved its first L3 autonomous driving models, marking a significant step towards commercialization in the automotive sector [10] - It recommends focusing on automotive electronics companies that are likely to benefit from this trend [10] Investment Recommendations - The report lists key investment opportunities across various sectors, including consumer electronics, semiconductors, and agricultural stocks, highlighting companies like Industrial Fulian, Lixun Precision, and Ulan Dairy as potential beneficiaries of market trends [11][13]

Group 1: Livestock Industry - The pig industry is currently in a phase of deep losses, with supply contraction expected to continue into the first half of 2026, leading to a significant reduction in production capacity. The average pig price for 2025 is projected to be below the cost line, with quarterly estimates of 15.5 CNY/kg, 13.5 CNY/kg, 16.4 CNY/kg, and 17.7 CNY/kg, resulting in an annual average of approximately 13.4 CNY/kg [11][25][26] - The white chicken market is experiencing a cautious outlook, with a projected supply growth of less than 5% for 2026. The decline in the sales of commodity broiler chicks indicates a more conservative price expectation within the industry [30][35] - The yellow chicken sector remains stable, with production capacity not significantly affected. The prices are expected to follow trends in other protein sources, with a focus on seasonal price increases [39] - The beef market is anticipated to see a price increase due to a clear reduction in both domestic and international supply. The wholesale price of beef has been rising, reaching 66.21 CNY/kg in December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [42][70] Group 2: Agricultural Inputs and Other Sectors - The feed industry is showing signs of recovery, with a 6.6% year-on-year increase in feed production for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating improved demand from the livestock sector [71][76] - The edible mushroom sector is witnessing a rebound, particularly with the reversal of the predicament faced by enoki mushrooms and the potential growth of new products like Cordyceps [3][80] - The pet industry continues to thrive, with a notable trend towards high-end domestic products, as evidenced by the performance of brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [4][63] - The natural sweetener market is expected to grow as consumer awareness of sugar reduction increases, with companies like Bailong Chuangyuan and Baolingbao positioned to benefit from this trend [4][71]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the dairy industry, particularly recommending attention to YouRan Dairy (9858.HK) as a potential investment opportunity [5]. Core Insights - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on December 22, 2025, to implement temporary anti-subsidy measures on imported dairy products from the EU, effective from December 23, 2025 [1][3]. - The anti-subsidy investigation, initiated in July 2024, revealed that the EU provided substantial subsidies to its dairy industry, causing material harm to the domestic industry in China [3]. - The subsidy rates for affected products, including fresh cheese, processed cheese, and cream, range from 21.9% to 42.7% [3]. Summary by Sections Anti-Subsidy Measures - The anti-subsidy measures are expected to increase import prices, which may help balance the supply and demand of raw milk in China [4]. - In the first ten months of 2025, China imported 2.1824 million tons of various dairy products, with significant contributions from the EU, accounting for 15% of cheese, 12% of cream, and 29% of other cream products [4]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that domestic dairy prices have been declining due to an oversupply of raw milk, and the price advantage of imported dairy products is diminishing [4]. - The implementation of anti-subsidy measures is anticipated to weaken the price advantage of imported dairy products, potentially reducing overseas supply and promoting a return to supply-demand balance in China's raw milk industry [4]. Investment Recommendations - As domestic dairy product demand stabilizes and anti-subsidy measures stimulate the demand for domestic raw milk processing, the report encourages monitoring YouRan Dairy (9858.HK) for investment opportunities [5].