刚刚交出亮眼的业绩，寒武纪就迎来了猝不及防的大跌。 2月4日，寒武纪股价收跌5.32%，报1068元/股，总市值4504亿元。此前一天，公司股价跌去12.88%，市 值从约5300亿元回落到4563亿元，几乎半天蒸发了超过700亿元。 表面看，导火索是一篇流传不广的"小作文"，公司小范围交流中给出的2026年营收指引仅为200亿元， 远低于市场预期。寒武纪很快辟谣，但难挡股市大跌。 自上市起，高估值的寒武纪一直背负着高预期。这种高预期既有国产替代浪潮的大势之趋，也有AI时 代对于芯片需求的蒸蒸日上。 预期之下，以寒武纪为代表，大量国产芯片企业脱颖而出，成为资本市场耀眼的明星。它们普遍估值 高、上市快、融资规模大，在资本市场起起伏伏，关注度也极高。 "小作文"可以呼应投资者高预期下的焦虑，但不能成为股价大跌的唯一由头。 从投资者的视角看，无论是寒武纪，还是紧随其后上市的摩尔线程、沐曦股份，大家都面临着背负高预 期之后，如何兑现、何时兑现的考题。硬件的稳定性、性价比、供应能力都是市场的重要考察因素。 附在股价上的预期，自然比单纯的数字更复杂。营收增长幅度、亏损收窄情况、盈利预期的变化，都可 能变成"小作文"制造焦 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rumors regarding a 32% tax rate on the internet industry are unfounded and lack a basis in the current tax system, which does not allow for such arbitrary adjustments [3][8]. Group 1: Tax Rumors and Market Impact - Since February 2, rumors about increased taxes in the internet sector have caused significant volatility in the tech sector, despite the illogical nature of these claims [1]. - Previous instances of tax rumors have led to market downturns, such as the 2021 speculation about the cancellation of a 10% preferential tax rate for internet companies [5][6]. Group 2: Tax Rate Structure - The current VAT rates in China are 6%, 9%, and 13%, with no provision for a 32% rate, which is incompatible with the existing tax framework [3][4]. - The nature of the internet gaming industry, characterized by high human resource costs and low deductibility of input taxes, justifies a lower VAT rate [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Stability and Economic Growth - The stability of tax laws is crucial for economic foundations, and any changes to tax rates require extensive negotiation and cannot be made arbitrarily [8]. - The overarching goal of China's macroeconomic policy is to maintain growth, which necessitates consistent policies that support the digital economy and technology sectors [8][11]. Group 4: Role of Technology in Economic Development - The internet and gaming sectors are increasingly recognized as vital components of technological advancement, contributing to various fields, including military training and AI development [9][11]. - Continuous investment in AI and other cutting-edge technologies by internet companies indicates that significant policy adjustments are unlikely to occur suddenly [11].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.85% to close at 4102.20 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21% to 14156.27 points. The ChiNext Index experienced a decline of 0.4%, closing at 3311.51 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 623 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2][3]. Sector Performance - The significant rise in the Shanghai Composite Index was primarily driven by the strong performance of the "YYDS" sectors, which include banking, telecommunications, oil and coal, and electric power. These sectors, known for their resilience during the previous bear market, collectively supported the index's upward movement [4][5]. - Key sectors contributing to the index's rise included coal, photovoltaic, and aviation, while the real estate sector and its related industries, such as steel, cement, construction design, and engineering, also showed rebound trends. In contrast, the precious metals sector and AI-related industries, including cultural media, gaming, internet services, and software development, faced declines [5][6]. Stock Performance - A total of 3180 stocks rose, while 1983 stocks fell, with a median increase of 0.45%. The trading volume was 2.47 trillion yuan, indicating a general upward trend among individual stocks [6]. - The micro-cap stocks reached new highs, contrasting with the performance of the "YYDS" sectors, highlighting a market environment where opportunities are polarized, with limited chances for the middle 80% of stocks [6]. Capital Flow - In terms of capital flow, there was a net outflow of 155 billion yuan from the Shanghai market and 498 billion yuan from the Shenzhen market, reflecting a divergence in capital movement that corresponds with the differing index performances [6]. Technology Sector - The Hang Seng Technology Index opened lower and closed down by 1.84%, with Tencent Holdings leading the decline. The company had previously engaged in buybacks to support its stock price but paused these actions during the earnings disclosure period, leading to increased selling pressure. This situation raised concerns about internal management issues within Tencent, while Alibaba showed relative resilience [7].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index slightly up by 0.05% to close at 26,847.32 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.84% to 5,366.44 points [1][2]. Company Focus - Tencent Holdings (HK00700) experienced a nearly 4% decline, contributing to the drop in the Hang Seng Tech Index [3]. Sector Movements - Coal stocks saw significant gains, with Feishang Anthracite (HK01738) rising by 20%, Huili Resources (HK01303) up over 17%, and Yancoal Australia (HK03668) and Yanzhou Coal Mining (HK01171) both increasing by over 10% [5]. - The solar energy sector also saw a rise, with Xinyi Glass (HK00868) increasing by over 5% [7]. Market Insights - GF Securities noted that the daily consumption of thermal coal remains at a high level, with expectations for stable coal prices as supply tightens ahead of the Spring Festival [7]. - Goldman Sachs projected that the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index will rise by 20% and 12% respectively by 2026, maintaining an "overweight" recommendation for A-shares and H-shares [11]. Investment Recommendations - Galaxy Securities suggested focusing on the technology sector as a long-term investment theme, driven by multiple favorable factors including price increases in the supply chain and accelerated AI applications [12].

2月4日，市场探底回升，沪指重返4100点，深成指翻红，此前一度跌超1%，创业板指午后跌幅收窄。沪深两市成交额2.50万亿，较上一个交易日缩量624 亿。 受AI颠覆性冲击引发的担忧情绪影响，全球SaaS（软件即服务）概念股遭遇猛烈抛售。据统计数据，追踪软件、金融数据和交易所股票的两项标普类股 指数市值周二合计蒸发了约3000亿美元（约合人民币2.1万亿元）。今日，美股软件股抛售潮传递到亚太市场，多家行业龙头股价大跌。 A股软件板块全天表现低迷，开普云跌超12%，卓易信息、优刻得、光云科技跌超9%，青云科技、福昕软件、合合信息跌逾6%。芯片概念股部分下跌， 聚辰股份、芯导科技跌逾7%，澜起科技、利扬芯片、寒武纪跌逾5%。 | 恒源煤电 | 7.21 | 10.08% | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600971.SH | | | | | 究矿能源 | 15.27 | 10.01% | 0.00% | | 600188.SH | | | | | 山西焦煤 | 7.36 | 10.01% | 0.00% | | 000983.SZ | | | | | 潞安环能 | 13 ...

记者｜金珊 见习记者林芊蔚 编辑｜江佩霞 2月4日，市场探底回升，沪指重返4100点，深成指翻红，此前一度跌超1%，创业板指午后跌 幅收窄。沪深两市成交额2.50万亿，较上一个交易日缩量624亿。 | 行情 | 资金净流入 | 涨跌分布 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 科创综指 | | 4102.20 | 14156.27 11 | 1785.43 | | +34.46 +0.85% +29.17 +0.21% -17.72 -0.98% | | | | 万得全A | 创业板指 | 北证50 | | 6770.14 | 3311.51 | 1538.57 | | +30.37 +0.45% -13.38 -0.40% -10.94 -0.71% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4698.68 | 8299.06 | 5886.58 | | +38.58 +0.83% +12.36 +0.15% +34.43 +0.59% | | | | 中证1000 | 深证100 | 中证红利 | | 8207.12 | 5854.23 | ...

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a decline, with the Chinese concept index dropping by 0.94%. The Hang Seng Index fell by 110.27 points, a decrease of 0.41%, closing at 26,724.50 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 120.19 points, down 2.20%, reaching a new low since mid-July 2025 [1] - Technology stocks, particularly those considered riskier, continued to decline, with Tencent falling nearly 4% after restrictions on its "Yuanbao Red Packet" link by WeChat. Other major players like Baidu, Meituan, and Xiaomi also saw declines of over 2%, while Bilibili dropped nearly 5% [1] - Chip stocks faced significant losses, with Shanghai Fudan down nearly 9%, Huahong Semiconductor down over 5%, and SMIC down nearly 3% [1] - The coal sector showed strength, with Feishang No Smoke Coal rising over 33%. Real estate stocks also performed well, with Sunac China up over 7% and China Resources Land up nearly 4% [1] Corporate Developments - In the technology sector, InnoCare successfully completed a significant design integration for AI hardware with Google, establishing a solid foundation in the AI hardware market [1] - Enoch Intelligent received a milestone payment of HKD 39 million from Menarini, marking a significant step in its pharmaceutical technology research [1] - Capital investment firm Shumeng Capital signed a contract worth USD 3 million with a Macau distributor, expanding its business footprint [1] Pharmaceutical Industry Highlights - Youzhiyou Biotech's M701 received FDA IND approval for a novel therapy targeting malignant pleural effusion, marking a new phase in international clinical development [2] - Xiansheng Pharmaceutical received a milestone payment of USD 40 million from AbbVie for the overseas licensing option agreement for SIM0500, highlighting its competitiveness in the international pharmaceutical market [2] - Kangfang Biotech granted exclusive commercialization rights for Yixinning® to Jichuan Pharmaceutical, resulting in significant licensing fees and milestone payments [2] - Federal Pharmaceuticals' UBT251 injection received implied clinical trial approval for a new indication, providing new treatment options for patients [2] Food Industry Performance - Nissin Foods reported strong performance in its China business segment, with revenue reaching JPY 54.948 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, and core operating profit of JPY 5.859 billion, up 9.3% [2] Capital Market Insights - Guotai Junan International noted a market shift from "liquidity-driven" to "profit-driven" dynamics, suggesting a focus on fundamental analysis rather than speculative trading [4] - CITIC Securities observed significant adjustments in Hong Kong stock earnings expectations, predicting a continuation of the spring market rally with large-cap stocks outperforming [4] - Huatai Securities indicated that the current market sentiment has shifted to optimism, suggesting a focus on companies with earnings certainty and potential for growth in technology and cyclical sectors [5] - Guoyuan International highlighted that Hong Kong stocks may continue to outperform US stocks due to favorable conditions for non-US assets and the potential recovery of domestic demand [5]

展望后市，瑞银预测金价的上行情景目标价为7200美元/盎司，下行情景目标价为4600美元/盎司。该机 构认为，美联储立场若转向鹰派，可能加剧金价下行风险，而地缘紧张局势急剧升级则可能驱动金价更 接近上行情景。整体而言，瑞银继续看好黄金，并在全球资产配置中维持对黄金的看涨立场。 新股方面，今日国恩科技（HK02768）在港交所上市，首日高开25%，随后涨幅扩大到34%。 2月4日，港股市场小幅低开。 截至发稿，恒生指数开盘报26797.05点，下跌37.72点，跌幅0.14%。 | 分析 5日 = 5分 15分 30分 60分 日报 高K 月K 年K + | 前景区~ 其他· 黑ノ二 恒生指数 (HSI) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 學生福歌 培林 · | 00000 26797.05 | | | 4-37-72 | | | | +-28058.10 28000.0 | 行情报价 | | | | | | | 域交通 | 1,64亿 超源 | 25797.05 今天 | 26797.05 | | | | 成交服 | 42.9亿 最低 | 24 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has a short-term support reference at 26,000 points, with expectations for policy initiatives in the first quarter of 2026 focusing on expanding domestic demand and achieving technological self-reliance [2] - Despite geopolitical instability affecting risk appetite, the upgrade of AI large models is driving financing activities in the industry, supporting the AI market [2] - The HSI reached a high of 27,381 points but faced downward pressure due to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, with initial support seen at 26,000 points [2] Sector Outlook - Macau gaming stocks are favored due to January's gambling revenue exceeding expectations, with the upcoming Spring Festival expected to act as a catalyst [3] Company News - InnoCare Pharma (2577) signed a compliance supply agreement with Google [5] - Pony.ai (2026) expects a narrowing of losses for the previous year, with growth in investment fair value gains [5] - Tianqi Lithium (9696) plans to raise over 5.8 billion yuan through a 9% discounted share placement and convertible bonds to expand its lithium business [5] - HAP Pharmaceuticals (2142) anticipates a profit increase of at least 31 times for the previous year [5] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China conducted a 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [9] - The central government's focus for 2026 includes agricultural technology and mechanisms for increasing farmers' income, emphasizing the integration of AI with agricultural development [9] - The retail sales value in Hong Kong for December rose by 6.6% year-on-year, although it fell short of market expectations [10] - The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for Hong Kong in January rose to 52.3, indicating a continued improvement in the business environment [10]

昨夜，全球市场迎来一场戏剧性转折。随着黄金、白银价格暴力反弹，美股三大指数却全线收跌，市场情绪在地缘政治紧张与科技股抛售的双重冲击下剧烈 波动。 | 美股指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普5( | | 49240.99 | 23255.19 | 6917.1 | | -166.67 -0.34% -336.92 -1.43% -58.63 - | | | | 中国金龙 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500 | | 7610.01 | 25410.25 | 6939.( | | -71.87 -0.94% -41.75 -0.16% | | -2.75 | 当地时间2月3日，美股三大指数集体走弱。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.34%，报49240.99点；标普500指数跌0.84%，报6917.81点；纳斯达克综合指数跌 1.43%，报23255.19点，几乎完全回吐了年初以来的涨幅。科技巨头表现尤为疲软，微软、英伟达跌近3%，Meta跌超2%，亚马逊、谷歌均下跌超1%。 | く ロ | 万得美国科技七巨头指数(MAGS) | | | --- | --- | ...