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港股概念追踪|快递行业在反内卷背景下 业绩有望修复(附概念股)
智通财经网· 2025-08-26 01:22
国海证券发布研报称,2025年7月,行业单票收入为7.36元,同比下降5.33%,环比下降1.76%。一方 面,快递小件化趋势下,对快递行业单票收入产生影响;另一方面,价格战7月仍延续,但8月反内卷背 景下,单票价格或有所修复。加盟快递在反内卷背景下,业绩有望修复。 智通财经APP获悉,2025年7月全国快递企业件量164.0亿件,同比+15.1%;2025年1-7月件量1120.5亿 件,同比+18.7%。 小件化趋势持续、电商促销且退换货便捷,共同驱动2025年前7个月件量增速超过邮管局对2025年全年 件量增速超8%的预测。 电商快递方面,圆通/韵达/申通2025年7月业务量分别同比+20.8%/+7.6%/+11.9%;1-7月业务量分别同比 +21.6%/+15.1%/ +19.3%。 直营快递方面,顺丰2025年7月业务量同比+33.7%;1-7月业务量同比+26.9%,得益于落实激活经营策 略,加大对前线业务的授权与激励,顺丰件量增速3-7月连续领跑行业。 8月12日,财政部、税务总局发布关于明确快递服务等增值税政策的公告,公告自发布之日起施行。其 中提到,快递企业提供快递服务取得的收入,按照" ...
低空经济 渭南“抢位”
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-25 16:24
陕西渭南,一座西北小城正试图在低空经济的城市竞赛中完成一次关键跳跃。 2025年2月26日,当渭南市委书记樊维斌、市长陈晓勇与陕西华鹰众行航空科技有限公司(简称"华鹰航 空")董事长龚升平共同签下战略合作协议时,这座陕西小城终于实现了低空经济产业链"从0到1"的突 破。 华鹰航空无人机生产总装基地的落地,不仅带来了30亿元的订单,更让渭南这个工业底子薄弱的西北城 市,挤进了炙手可热的低空经济赛道。 两张底牌,抢位万亿赛道 当低空经济在2024年首次写入政府工作报告,2025年再度被强调"安全健康发展",这个万亿级新赛道, 催生了炙手可热的产业和投资机遇,引发全国城市竞相入局。 作为贯通一二三产、串联全产业链的战略性新兴产业,据中国民用航空局预估,2025年中国低空经济市 场规模将达1.5万亿元,到2035年有望达到3.5万亿元。 北上广深携产业积淀冲锋,苏州、成都等新贵亦不遑多让。陕西版图上,西安是传统航空航天产业重 镇,坐拥航空高校院所和龙头企业,榆林凭借广袤空域吸引无人机企业试飞。夹在中间的渭南,似乎并 非天然主角。 然而低空经济赛道初启,胜负未分,"非头部"城市也并非没有机会。 渭南悄然握有的第一张底牌 ...
大行评级|大摩:下调中通快递目标价至23.8美元 下调2025至27年盈测
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-25 06:54
摩根士丹利发表报告,将中通快递目标价由24.6美元下调至23.8美元,评级"增持"。该行将2025至27年 各年盈测分别下调1%、2%及2%,主要考虑因素包括2025年下半年行业增长放缓导致包裹量预测被下 调;反内卷导致平均售价上升;以及其他一次性项目影响。 ...
国海证券晨会纪要-20250825
Guohai Securities· 2025-08-25 01:02
Group 1 - The report highlights that XPeng Motors achieved a record high gross margin in Q2 2025, with a revenue of 18.27 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 125.3% [5][6] - The gross margin for Q2 was 17.3%, up 3.3 percentage points from the same period in 2024, driven by the launch of high-priced models G6 and G9 [5][6] - The company expects to continue improving its overall gross margin in Q4 2025 with the release of new models and an increase in sales of range-extended vehicles [6][7] Group 2 - Shengnong Development reported a revenue of 8.856 billion yuan in H1 2025, a slight increase of 0.22% year-on-year, while net profit surged by 791.93% to 910 million yuan [11][13] - The company achieved growth in both production and sales, with chicken meat sales increasing by 2.5% and processed meat products by 13.21% [13] - The completion of the acquisition of Sun Valley Holdings has further optimized the supply chain and improved operational efficiency [13][14] Group 3 - Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of 76.463 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.46%, with net profit soaring by 1169.77% to 10.53 billion yuan [15][16] - The company sold 46.91 million pigs in H1 2025, with production costs decreasing to approximately 11.8 yuan/kg by July [16] - The company aims to reduce its overall debt by 10 billion yuan, having already decreased its total liabilities by 5.6 billion yuan by the end of Q2 2025 [15][16] Group 4 - Yanjin Food reported a revenue of 2.941 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.58%, with net profit rising by 16.70% to 373 million yuan [18][19] - The company’s revenue from konjac products increased by 155% to 790 million yuan, becoming a key growth driver [19][20] - The company is focusing on optimizing its cost structure and improving profitability through better product mix and channel strategies [20][21] Group 5 - Guocer Materials achieved a revenue of 2.154 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.29%, with net profit slightly up by 0.38% to 332 million yuan [22][24] - The company’s electronic materials segment saw a revenue increase of 23.65%, while the new energy materials segment grew by 26.36% [24][25] - The company is actively developing new materials and expanding its product offerings to meet the growing demand in various sectors [27][28] Group 6 - Yingliu Technology reported a revenue of 1.384 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.11%, with net profit rising by 23.91% to 188 million yuan [29][30] - The company’s new material and equipment segment experienced significant growth, with a revenue increase of 74.49% [31] - The company has secured multiple strategic partnerships in the nuclear energy sector, enhancing its order backlog [33][34] Group 7 - Shengquan Group reported a revenue of 5.351 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.67%, with net profit rising by 51.19% to 501 million yuan [37][38] - The company’s advanced electronic materials and battery materials segments achieved significant revenue growth, driven by increased demand [38][39] - The company is focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements to enhance profitability [39][40]
快递费上调,广东浙江电商受影响大,部分商家月增成本3万
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 00:27
广东地区的一位圆通加盟商表示,在涨价之前,圆通的发货价格可以低至0.9元,但涨价后,这一价格已经上涨了0.5元,涨幅高达55%。同样,在浙江义 乌,也有快递加盟商表示,8月份已经两次调价,每次上涨0.05元。这些调整直接反映了快递公司对于价格战的反思和调整。 广东的一名电商商家表示,他之前与极兔速递合作,价格一直比较稳定,但今年8月5日,极兔突然通知他要涨价0.3元/票,理由是为了响应反内卷的竞争态 势。同样,中通快递也在8月5日开始调价,涨价幅度为0.5元。 对于此次涨价,快递公司方面表示,这是省分公司根据市场情况和运营成本做出的调整。而业内人士则认为,此次涨价有助于推动快递行业走出价格战的泥 潭,实现更加理性和健康的发展。尽管短期内可能会给电商商家带来一定的成本压力,但从长远来看,这将有助于提升整个行业的服务质量和竞争力。 快递涨价的影响已经显现,一些电商商家表示正在考虑是否需要通过提高商品价格来消化增加的成本。然而,由于市场竞争激烈和消费者价格敏感度的提 高,商家们对此持谨慎态度。他们担心涨价会导致销量下降,进而影响整体收益。 近期,我国多个地区的快递费用出现了上调现象,这一变动引起了广泛关注。据了解, ...
广州、义乌多地快递费涨价;阿里更新官网划分四大业务板块|一周未来商业
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-24 22:36
| 2025年8月18日—8月24日 | #电商新零售 8月22日晚间,东方甄选公布了2025财年(2024年6月1日至2025年5月31日)综合业绩。2025财年,东方 甄选持续经营业务(自营产品及直播电商业务)的总营收为44亿元,持续经营业务净溢利由2025财年上 半年的净亏损9650万元实现扭亏为盈,净溢利为620万元。从东方甄选GMV(商品交易总额)上也能看 到董宇辉出走带来的实质影响:东方甄选2025财年的总GMV为87亿元,上个财年的GMV则为143亿 元。 点评:在直播电商行业,头部主播往往是流量与销售的关键驱动力,董宇辉的离开无疑使东方甄选流失 了大量粉丝与关注度,进而冲击GMV数据。 NO.2阿里更新官网:划分四大业务板块 近日,阿里巴巴集团官网显示,其原有的六大业务集团被划分为四大业务类别,分别为阿里巴巴中国电 商集团、阿里国际数字商业集团、云智能集团以及所有其他业务。饿了么、飞猪归入阿里中国电商集 团,高德地图、菜鸟、优酷、大麦娱乐等归入"所有其他"。据内部人士表示,阿里官网业务板块划分更 新并不代表组织架构调整。 点评:这一变动体现了阿里正对业务进行重新梳理。当前,电商行业竞争格局复杂 ...
交通运输行业周报:“武鄂”首条低空货运航线开通,上海口岸暑运出入境客流持续高位-20250822
Bank of China Securities· 2025-08-22 11:14
交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 8 月 22 日 行业高频动态数据跟踪: ①航空物流:2025 年 8 月期间,中国至亚太航线整体趋势平稳。②航运 港口:内贸集运运价指数上升,干散货运价下降。③快递物流:2025 年 6 月快递业务量同比上升 15.78%,快递业务收入同比增加 9.00%。④航 空出行:2025 年 8 月第二周国际日均执飞航班 1895.57 次,环比 +0.20%,同比+12.00%。⑤公路铁路:7 月 28 日-8 月 3 日,全国高速公 路货车通行 5259.3 万辆,环比下降 0.94%。⑥交通新业态:2025 年 Q2,联想 PC 电脑出货量达 1697 万台,同比上升 15.22%,市场份额环 比上升 0.9pct。 投资建议: 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 "武鄂"首条低空货运航线开通,上海口岸暑 运出入境客流持续高位 航运方面,原油运价低位震荡,欧美线集运运价继续下行。航空方面, Joby Aviation 实现全球首次载人 eVTOL 跨机场飞行,上海口岸暑运出入境 客流持续高位。物流与交通新业态方面,"武鄂"首条低空货运航线开通, 上半年国家铁路发 ...
国海证券:“反内卷”逐步落地 期待8月快递行业价格修复
智通财经网· 2025-08-22 09:19
价方面,2025年7月,行业单票收入为7.36元,同比下降5.33%,环比下降1.76%。一方面,快递小件化 趋势下,对快递行业单票收入产生影响;另一方面,价格战7月仍延续,但8月反内卷背景下,单票价格 或有所修复。 区域量价:量方面,2025年7月,一类地区/二类地区/三类地区快递业务量同比增速分别为 +14.2%/+16.8%/+28.0%,非产粮区业务量同比增速高于产粮区。 智通财经APP获悉,国海证券发布研报称,2025年7月,行业单票收入为7.36元,同比下降5.33%,环比 下降1.76%。一方面,快递小件化趋势下,对快递行业单票收入产生影响;另一方面,价格战7月仍延 续,但8月反内卷背景下,单票价格或有所修复。加盟快递在反内卷背景下,业绩有望修复,关注涨价 业绩弹性较大的申通快递(002468.SZ)、韵达股份(002120.SZ),以及件量增长较快圆通速递 (600233.SH),Q2件量增速修复的中通快递(02057);价值股顺丰控股(06936)增长加速,需重点关注。 价方面,2025年7月,一类地区/二类地区/三类地区快递单票收入同比增速分别为-4.7%/-7.2%/-12.1%。 价格 ...
国泰海通:7月快递单价降幅收窄 反内卷持续扩散
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 05:56
国泰海通主要观点如下: 7月价格降幅收窄,快递"反内卷"力度超预期,短期竞争压力趋缓,中长期继续保障良性竞争 7月快递件量同比+15.1%;顺丰深化落实激活经营,业务量同比+33.7%,增速持续领跑 1)全行业:2025年7月全国快递企业件量164.0亿件,同比+15.1%;2025年1-7月件量1120.5亿件,同比 +18.7%。小件化趋势持续、电商促销且退换货便捷,共同驱动2025年前7个月件量增速超过邮管局对 2025年全年件量增速超8%的预测。2)电商快递:圆通/韵达/申通2025年7月业务量分别同比 +20.8%/+7.6%/+11.9%;1-7月业务量分别同比+21.6%/+15.1%/+19.3%。3)直营快递:顺丰2025年7月业务 量同比+33.7%;1-7月业务量同比+26.9%,得益于落实激活经营策略,加大对前线业务的授权与激励,顺 丰件量增速3-7月连续领跑行业。 行业集中度持续集中,头部公司Q2市场份额环比提高 2022年初到2024年末,由于政策监管下价格竞争相对温和,份额向头部集中较缓慢。1)全行业:2025年 1-7月快递行业CR8为86.9,同比提升1.7,反映出2025年 ...
易邮快递超市:构建多元合作生态,开启智能服务新纪元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 05:41
Core Insights - The traditional express delivery industry is facing challenges due to the rapid growth of e-commerce and consumer expectations for timely delivery, which has led to the emergence of the Yiyou Express Supermarket as a solution [1] Group 1: Business Model and Collaboration - Yiyou Express Supermarket's core competitiveness lies in its "e-commerce + express delivery" collaborative ecosystem, integrating major e-commerce platforms like Pinduoduo, JD.com, and Taobao with logistics networks of leading express companies [1] - This collaboration breaks down data barriers between platforms, allowing real-time synchronization of logistics information and enabling express companies to optimize their delivery capacity based on order distribution heat maps [1] - The average delivery time for same-city express services has improved by 22%, while the package delivery rate in remote areas has reached 98.7% [1] Group 2: Cost Optimization and User Experience - The shared transportation cost model allows Yiyou Express Supermarket to offer a 5 yuan shipping service, reducing single shipment costs by 40% through centralized collection [2] - The "three fixed mechanisms" for door-to-door delivery, established through partnerships with community property management, enhance delivery efficiency, increasing the average daily delivery volume per courier by 30 packages and reducing the rejection rate to 1.2% [2] - The introduction of low-price shopping services further extends the collaborative ecosystem, converting "express traffic" into "consumer traffic" by dynamically adjusting shelf products based on local shopping preferences [2] Group 3: Technology and Innovation - The operational efficiency is supported by a digital foundation built on intelligent systems, with an AI scheduling hub updating logistics node statuses every 15 minutes and predicting package peaks for the next four hours [3] - Smart parcel terminals can automatically identify package dimensions, weigh for billing, and detect prohibited items through cameras [3] - The developed "hive storage system" automates the allocation of storage locations for packages upon arrival, sending pick-up codes via SMS without manual intervention [3] - Yiyou Express Supermarket is redefining community service boundaries, becoming a crucial node connecting logistics, e-commerce, and community life [3]