半导体板块午后强势。 中信建投证券认为，国产化驱动下的渗透率提升依然是设备板块后续增长的重要来源。未来设备国产化率将实现快速 提升，头部整机设备企业2025年订单有望实现20%—30%以上增长，零部件国产化进程有望加快，板块整体基本面向 好。景气度方面，预计2025年先进制程维持较强表现，成熟制程复苏；后道封装温和复苏，2.5D/3D先进封装下半年 有望有积极进展。国产替代方面，头部客户的国产替代诉求仍较强，不在清单的客户也在加速导入国产，预计后续国 产化率提升斜率更陡峭。设备厂对供应链的国产化推进也非常迅速。 核电概念爆发 机构表示，AI算力需求激增，科技巨头加速布局核能领域，我国BEST项目已于2025年3月完成首块顶板顺利浇筑，聚 变新能、中国科学院等离子体物理研究所公布了多项招标公告，涵盖水冷系统水泵、水冷系统6000T冷却塔和中压高 压氦气纯化器等多个环节。我国核电"热堆—快堆—聚变堆"三步走路线明确，核电建设有望进入高质量发展轨道。 11月12日，A股主要股指午后放量拉升，创业板指、科创50指数较为强势，港股亦走强，恒生指数、恒生科技指数双 双涨近2%。 具体来看，A股主要股指早盘震荡上扬，午后在 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中央经济工作会议释放重磅信号，港股三大指数今日强势反弹，恒指一度重回两万 六关口，恒科指数曾涨超2%。截止收盘，恒生指数涨1.75%或446.28点，报25976.79点，全日成交额为 2426.57亿港元；恒生国企指数涨1.62%，报9079.35点；恒生科技指数涨1.87%，报5638.05点。全周来 看，恒指累跌0.42%，国指累跌1.29%，恒科指数累跌0.43%。 国信证券表示，港股短期调整为2026年市场上涨打开空间。从资金面上看，11月南向资金净流入港股市 场超1100亿元人民币。今年南向资金在港股下跌时依然逆向加仓，这既体现了内地资金的充裕流动性， 也彰显了其低位布局港股的强烈意愿。该机构预测，港股2026年有望在30000-32000点之间运行。 蓝筹股表现 中国人寿(02628)领升蓝筹。截至收盘，涨5.52%，报28.3港元，成交额27.12亿港元，贡献恒指17.61点。 兴业证券发布研报称，2026年保险板块将继续演绎并强化本轮价值系统性重估，核心逻辑在于利差企稳 向好叠加投资资产规模快速扩张，带动整体盈利中枢改善。 其他蓝筹股方面，长江基建集团(01038)涨4. ...

Economic News - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut since 2025 [1] - Vietnam's National Assembly amended the mineral law to prohibit the export of rare earth ores starting January 1, 2026, emphasizing strict control over exploration and processing [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security held a seminar in collaboration with the International Labour Organization [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the importance of pilot innovation in manufacturing as a key link connecting innovation, technology, and industry [1] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance policy support for the retail industry's innovation and transformation during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The Ministry of Commerce will work with local governments to implement policies to stabilize foreign trade and promote market diversification [1] - The China Textile Import and Export Chamber reported that yarn and fabric exports reached $69.18 billion from January to October 2025, a 2.1% year-on-year increase [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue special government bonds due in 2025, with a total face value of CNY 400 billion for the first phase and CNY 350 billion for the second phase [1] - The National Internet Information Office is conducting a special campaign to rectify online chaos in the automotive industry [1] - The Ministry of Education reported an increase in the number of students returning from studying abroad, with 495,000 expected to return in 2024, a 19.1% increase from 2023 [1] Company News - Pop Mart announced changes in its board of directors, with new appointments effective December 10, 2025 [4] - Kweichow Moutai announced a cash dividend of CNY 23.957 per share, totaling CNY 30 billion, with the ex-dividend date on December 19 [4] - Nanjing Highway plans to invest up to CNY 9.033 billion in the construction of the Nanyang Yangtze River Bridge southern connection project [4] - ZTE Corporation is in communication with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding compliance investigations related to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act [4] - Oracle reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $16.1 billion, a 14% year-on-year increase, with cloud revenue of $8 billion, a 34% increase, but below market expectations [4] Transportation Industry - The transportation sector has shown signs of recovery, with the strong cycle sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [5] - The focus for 2026 will remain on sectors benefiting from anti-involution and high certainty stocks, with a long-term impact expected from these policies [6] - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability, with rising prices and a reduction in low-price competition [7] - The airline sector has improved performance due to lower oil prices and better management of ticket pricing, with a cautious approach to aircraft procurement expected to continue [8] - The highway sector has experienced significant stock price adjustments, with a focus on high dividend yield and low debt ratio companies expected to gain more attention [9]

环球市场动态 美联储 1 月 或 暂 停 降 息 股 票 美联储议息前市场表现平淡，A 股 周三小幅走弱，尾盘反弹；港股午 后拉升，大型科技股多数上涨；欧 洲股市走势分歧，市场等待议息决 议公布；美联储按预期降息并上调 美国经济增长预测，美股上涨，小 盘股涨幅居前。 外 汇 / 商 品 美国在委内瑞拉海岸附近扣押一艘 受制裁的油轮，周三原油期货反弹； 美联储降息决定以及将开始购买国 库券推动黄金现货上涨、白银创新 高；铜价在美联储利率决策公布前 走高。 固 定 收 益 周三，美国国债普遍上涨，收益率 下降 2-8 个基点，曲线趋陡。美联 储降息 25 个基点，并决定自 12 月 12 日起每月购买 400 亿美元短期 国库券。亚洲债市相对坚挺，交投 平静。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 12 月 11 日 ▪ 美联储 2025 年 12 月议息会议降息 25 个基点，符合市场预期。鲍威尔表示政策利率处于良好位置，暗示明年 1 月将暂停降息，但利率方向并非是双向的。本次点阵图显示明年目标利率中枢为 3.4%，与 9 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that domestic demand is recovering ahead of external demand, with a focus on low base effects in 2026, making bottomed-out sectors worth attention [3] - It highlights that upstream sectors are recovering before downstream sectors, with significant demand elasticity expected in early 2026, particularly in bulk supply chains and dry bulk shipping [3] - The report notes that price increases are anticipated before volume growth, with a focus on dry bulk shipping, e-commerce logistics, and airlines benefiting from supply constraints and favorable oil exchange rates [3] Industry Overview - The transportation sector ranked 29th in the market as of December 10, 2025, reflecting significant pressure on fundamentals, with a -1% performance in the Shenwan primary transportation index [18][19] - The report identifies structural opportunities in logistics and shipping, despite the overall economic cycle affecting the sector [20] - It indicates that the transportation sector's performance is closely tied to economic fundamentals, with a notable correlation between ROE and economic cycles [23] Sub-industry Analysis - In logistics, domestic demand is stabilizing while external trade remains robust, with expectations of price increases due to anti-involution policies [11][20] - The airline sector is experiencing improvements in supply and demand, with a focus on capturing opportunities in private airlines and airport duty-free consumption recovery [11][20] - The shipping sector, particularly dry bulk shipping, is highlighted as a cost-effective opportunity for 2026, driven by supply and demand dynamics [11][20] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a strategy of seeking alpha within beta, focusing on sectors with low beta characteristics that are expected to turn around in 2026 [11][20] - It emphasizes the importance of identifying individual stocks within the transportation sector that can outperform the broader market, given the anticipated recovery in demand [11][20] - The report outlines a cautious but optimistic outlook for 2026, with a focus on sectors that have shown resilience and potential for recovery [11][20]

东兴证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，东兴证券发布研报称，回顾本年交通运输行业的走势，截至2025年12月8日,交通运 输行业板块涨幅在申万一级行业中排名靠后，走势明显弱于大盘。细分到子板块，公路、铁路、港口等 重资产+弱周期板块年初至今走势相对较弱，而航运航空等周期类板块走势相对较强，下半年反内卷的 政策执行对交通运输行业强周期板块的股价产生了较为积极的影响。 2026年展望：重视反内卷受益板块及高确定性个股 今年二季度以来，航空板块业绩有明显好转，一方面是因为今年油价的相对较低，另一方面则是得益于 航司供给端的管控和航司对票价的维护。2025年航司对于飞机采购的态度依旧谨慎，且这种谨慎的态度 大概率会延续到2026年。进入2025年后，航司客座率与扣油座公里收益较2024年都有同比抬升，这说明 供给端长期的低增长对行业供需关系的影响在逐步放大，正从单纯的推升客座率，到高客座率向高票价 进行转化，行业的盈利弹性有望逐步释放。该行认为当行业经营指标整体性抬升时，三大航收入及盈利 弹性明显高于中型航司，边际改善会更加显著。因此建议重点关注三大航的盈利弹性。 高速公路板块：关注"高分红比例+低负债率"标的 ...

Investment Summary - The transportation industry has shown a significant underperformance compared to the broader market, ranking among the lowest in terms of growth within the Shenwan primary industry indices as of December 8, 2025 [15][16] - The implementation of anti-involution policies has positively impacted the fundamentals of certain segments within the transportation sector, particularly benefiting the aviation and express delivery sectors [26][30] 2026 Outlook - The focus for 2026 remains on sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies and high-certainty stocks, with a long-term impact expected from these policies on stock price movements [5][34] - Key sectors to watch include aviation, express delivery, and regional shipping, while high-dividend and low-debt companies are expected to attract more investor interest in weaker cyclical areas [5][34] Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability driven by rising single-package prices, with major companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express showing significant improvements [6][35] - The trend of price competition has been curtailed, leading to a decrease in package volume growth as companies focus on maintaining service quality and profitability [6][38] - The competitive strategies among companies have diverged, with YTO and Shentong performing strongly, while Yunda has struggled with profitability and market share [42][53] Aviation Sector - The aviation sector has experienced a notable improvement in performance since Q2 2025, with major airlines reporting increased profitability compared to the previous year [63][64] - The focus for 2026 will be on the transition from high passenger load factors to higher ticket prices, supported by controlled supply and strong demand [69][87] - Major airlines are expected to maintain cautious procurement strategies, with a projected fleet growth of around 5% in 2026 [69][80] Highway Sector - The highway sector has faced significant adjustments in stock prices, leading to a more rational market approach towards high-dividend investments [8][4.1] - Following substantial adjustments, the attractiveness of highway stocks has improved, with a focus on companies with high dividend ratios and low debt levels [8][4.3]

十年收并购风云 十年弹指一挥间，快递江湖的并购逻辑，也完成了从"清理门户"到"强强联合"的质变。 最开始要从"清场时代"说起，也就是2017年前，行业狂飙突进的年代，淘汰赛率先从第二梯队开始，这一阶段的并购，多为资本对经营不善者的接盘，但 结局不尽如人意。 其中最经典的就是天天快递，作为与申通、顺丰同时代起跑的"元老"，天天的命运最为坎坷。2017年，试图构建物流护城河的苏宁以超40亿元的对价将天 天收入麾下。 如今，电商增速换挡，价格战硝烟渐散，快递行业已经从"草莽群殴"迈入"巨头角力"新纪元。 近十年间，一场场动辄数十亿的资本并购，不断重塑着行业的版图与座次。 业内收并购，有的成功，实现1+1＞2，有的失败，甚至1+1＜1。 《快递观察家》发现，透过一系列"商战"，并购的结局，早在交易敲定前就已经埋下伏笔。其成败从不取决于交易金额的大小，而是在于收购方战略逻辑 的清晰度、协同价值的真实性与后期整合的魄力、稳力之中。 成功的并购，是补齐一块关键的战略拼图；失败的并购，则是吞下一颗致命的财务毒药。 然而，苏宁一手打造的"生态协同"，并没有想象中美好。在苏宁体系内，天天定位模糊，与主业协同微弱，沦为持续失血的" ...

当前市场静候美联储12月利率决议落地。当地时间12月8日，美股整体呈弱势震荡走势，三大股指小幅 下跌；从板块及个股看，大型科技股跌多涨少，热门中概股涨跌不一，硕迪生物股价逆势大涨逾 102%。 国际银价出现调整，国际油价下跌，其中NYMEX原油期货主力合约跌破每桶60美元关口。业内机构研 判，银价短期需警惕高位剧烈震荡风险，国际油价仍然处于偏弱震荡区间。 美股三大股指小幅收跌 中概股硕迪生物涨逾102% 当地时间12月8日，美股整体呈弱势震荡走势，三大股指均小幅收跌，道指、纳指、标普500指数分别下 跌0.45%、0.14%、0.35%。 | 资料 | 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | 月度收益 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | | | 现价 | 涨跌幅▼一 | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | | | 185.575 | 1.73% | | NVDA.O | | | | | | 微软(MICROSO ... | | | 491.020 | 1.63% | | MSFT.O | | | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | | | 277.890 | -0.32% ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines on December 8, with the Dow Jones down 0.45%, S&P 500 down 0.35%, and Nasdaq down 0.14% [1][2]. Technology Sector - Major technology stocks mostly fell, with the Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index decreasing by 0.28%. Notably, Tesla dropped over 3% after Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Perkoco downgraded the stock, citing that its current valuation cannot support a buy rating and predicting a "volatile trading environment" until 2026 [2]. - Other tech stocks such as Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Apple also saw declines, while Microsoft and Nvidia gained over 1% [2]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.08%, with individual stocks showing mixed performance. Notable gainers included Suodi Bio up over 102%, Huya up over 7%, and Daqo New Energy up over 4%. Conversely, Legend Biotech fell over 7%, and ZTO Express dropped nearly 3% [4]. Commodity Market - International oil prices saw a significant drop, with U.S. oil down over 2% and Brent oil down nearly 2% at the close [4]. Economic Policy - U.S. President Trump announced a $12 billion aid package for American farmers to mitigate the adverse effects of tariffs on agriculture, which has led to low prices for crops like soybeans and corn [6]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is at 89.4%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut by January at 68.5% [6].