| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4163 | 0.39 | 0.56 | 1.98 | | 深证综指 | 2764 | 0.3 | 1.67 | 3.1 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | -0.49 | -0.24 | 6.25 | | 中盘指数 | 0.95 | 1.7 | 25.16 | | 小盘指数 | 0.95 | 1.92 | 18.74 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 小金属Ⅱ | 7.69 | 16.7 | 74.62 | | 焦炭Ⅱ | 4.86 | 12.97 | 28.07 | | 普钢Ⅱ | 4.11 | 9.76 | 12.59 | | 酒店餐饮 | 3.92 | 2.52 | 11.1 | | 燃气Ⅱ | 3.14 ...

行 30986 轻工制造 2026 年 03 月 01 日 业 研 究 关轻注 工制造 纸企发布 3 月涨价函，上海购房政策优化 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【周观点】①文化纸企发布 3 月涨价函、涨幅 200 元/吨，玖龙多基地宣布 箱板瓦楞纸提价 50 元/吨，浆价回升叠加招标旺季背景下，预计木浆系纸 价有支撑，看好纸企 Q1 盈利环比改善，持续推荐太阳纸业，关注玖龙纸 业、博汇纸业。②上海进一步优化购房政策，带动家居估值修复，关注后 续楼市小阳春销售情况。③家得宝、劳氏 26 年展望同店持平至+2%低于市 场预期，反映对当前美国疲软的住房市场和高利率环境的谨慎态度。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524060005) | | lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn | | 相关 ...

We estimate the remaining capex at Rmb10bn by end-3Q27, and the firm slightly raised its FY26 capex guidance to Rmb12.5bn (vs. previous guidance of Rmb11bn). The firm's gearing ratio fell 1ppt YoY to 64.7% as of end-1HFY26, marking the first decline in the past five years. Operating cash flow, capex, and free cash flow were Rmb3.3bn (down YoY due to increased receivables), Rmb5.2bn, and -Rmb1.9bn. Black paper: Linerboard and corrugated board recoveredsteadily. We estimate net profit per tonne of paper at Rm ...

机构：中金公司 资本开支略上调；资产负债率五年来首次下滑。公司公告已无造纸产能投放，仅剩四条浆线（250 万吨 化学浆，新增一条东莞50万吨拟27Q3 落地），投产地点为天津、重庆、北海、东莞，天津、东莞是传 统箱板瓦楞纸基地，我们认为公司此举或通过增加本色浆优化箱板纸结构，放大传统黑纸系盈利优势。 我们预计公司剩余资本开支100 亿元内，于27Q3 收尾，公司略上调FY26资本开支至125 亿元（前期指 引110 亿元）。截至1HFY26，公司资产负债率64.7%，同比-1ppt，为过去五年首次下滑；经营现金流、 资本开支、自由现金流为33 亿元（同比下滑，主要是应收增多）、52 亿元、-19 亿元。 黑纸：箱板瓦楞纸平稳复苏。我们估算期间吨纸净利约100 元。 往前看，我们认为2026 年行业供给基本收尾、需求平稳增长，我们看好板块周期筑底、迎来供需面平 稳修复行情，近期玖龙各大基地均发布春节后50 元/吨提价函，公司作为国内最大的箱板瓦楞纸龙头 （市占率25%左右），业绩受益板块修复弹性明显。 研究员：徐贇妍/陈彦/楼兰 业绩回顾 1HFY26 业绩符合前期预告和我们预期 公司公告1HFY26 业绩：实 ...

FY26 中报业绩大幅增长，公司α持续验证 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 风险提示：宏观经济下行，产能投放低预期，原材料价格大幅波动等。 盈利预测： | [单位Table_Finance] :人民币百万元 | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | 59,496 | 63,241 | 71,315 | 74,147 | 76,689 | | ） 增长率（ % | 4.9% | 6.3% | 12.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | | EBITDA | 6,106 | 7,785 | 9,070 | 9,762 | 10,305 | | 归母净利润 | 751 | 1,767 | 4,076 | 4,578 | 4,895 | | 增长率（ % ） | -131.5% | 135.4% | 130.7% | 12.3% | 6.9% | | EPS（元/股） | 0.16 | 0.38 | 0.87 | 0.98 | 1.04 | | 市盈率（P/E） | 18 ...

2月26日，由自治区政府主办的"东盟门户·湾区腹地—2026广西（香港）推介会"在香港举行，共叙 情谊、共商合作。自治区党委书记、自治区人大常委会主任陈刚，香港特别行政区行政长官李家超出席 活动并致辞，共同见证相关协议签约。中央政府驻港联络办副主任张勇，自治区政协副主席、自治区党 委秘书长周异决，外交部驻香港特别行政区特派员公署副特派员李永胜出席活动。 推介会上还举行项目签约仪式，在陈刚、李家超等领导共同见证下，自治区港澳事务办公室和香港 特别行政区政府民政及青年事务局签署《桂港两地青年交流交往合作备忘录》、自治区大数据发展局和 香港特别行政区政府数字政策办公室签署《桂港人工智能合作备忘录》等，当天共签约项目24个，涉及 人工智能、跨境金融、经贸投资、园区合作等领域。推介会前，陈刚等还会见重要商协会和企业代表， 参观"AI出海"主题展区。 香港行政会议召集人叶刘淑仪，中国旅游集团董事长、香港中国企业协会会长王海民，以及香港特 别行政区政府有关部门、国际调解院等国际组织、商协会的有关代表和自治区有关厅局的负责同志，华 润集团、招商局集团、中国太平保险集团、紫荆文化集团、香港中旅国际投资有限公司等央企负责同 志， ...

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 纸浆期货 05 合约前结算价为 5364 元/吨，收盘价为 5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the paper and light industry sectors, highlighting potential improvements in domestic demand and the impact of tariff policy changes [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the expected marginal improvement in domestic demand, driven by real estate policy stabilization and consumer confidence recovery [2][10]. - The AI glasses market is anticipated to see significant growth, with Meta's sales surging and Apple's upcoming product launch expected to enhance market penetration [2][12]. - The paper industry is experiencing price stability and potential profitability improvements due to strong overseas production control and rising prices [2][14]. Summary by Sections Export Sector - Changes in tariff policies are expected to boost export performance, with recommendations for companies like 嘉益股份, 匠心家居, and 永艺股份 due to their strong performance certainty [2][4]. - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against additional tariffs and the introduction of a 10% global tariff are pivotal developments [4][10]. Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing industry is at a valuation bottom, with real estate policies likely to catalyze upward valuation adjustments [2][10]. - The sector is witnessing accelerated consolidation, with mid-tier companies exiting and capital entering leading firms, enhancing industry concentration [2][11]. - Companies like 顾家家居, 索菲亚, and 欧派家居 are highlighted for their potential valuation recovery [2][11]. AI Glasses Sector - Meta's smart glasses sales have seen explosive growth, with a reported increase of nearly threefold, while Apple's anticipated entry is expected to further drive market penetration [2][11]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like 康耐特光学 and 明月镜片, which are well-positioned in this emerging market [2][12]. Paper Industry - The report notes that overseas pulp mills are showing strong production control intentions, leading to price increases [2][14]. - Companies like 太阳纸业 and 玖龙纸业 are recommended due to their integrated operations and cost advantages [2][14]. Domestic Demand - There is an expectation of marginal improvement in domestic demand, with companies like 百亚股份 and 公牛集团 identified as potential beneficiaries [2][17]. - The report highlights the importance of consumer confidence and spending power recovery in driving demand [2][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (2689.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on performance metrics and market conditions [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Nine Dragons Paper achieved a revenue of 37.221 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.966 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 318.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company's sales volume reached 12.4 million tons during the reporting period, with an average price of 3002 yuan per ton, reflecting increases of 100 thousand tons and 66 yuan per ton year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The report emphasizes the synergy between pulp and paper operations, which has contributed to profit recovery, with a notable increase in profitability despite rising costs [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, total revenue is projected at 63.241 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6%. By FY2026, revenue is expected to rise to 71.392 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 13% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.767 billion yuan for FY2025, with a substantial increase to 4.039 billion yuan in FY2026, indicating a growth rate of 135% [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.38 yuan in FY2025 to 0.86 yuan in FY2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.48 and 9.35, respectively [5]. Product Segment Analysis - The report details that the cultural paper segment saw a revenue increase of 40.9% year-on-year, while the white card paper sales surged by 133.3% [2]. - The pricing for boxboard and corrugated paper increased, contributing to improved average prices and profitability [2]. - The company is expected to enhance its pulp self-sufficiency, which will support profitability in pressured product categories, particularly as new production capacities come online [3]. Capacity and Future Outlook - As of December 2025, the company's design capacity for paper production reached 25.4 million tons, with raw material capacity at 8.2 million tons [3]. - Future expansions include the production of chemical pulp, with new capacities expected to come online in Chongqing and Tianjin in Q4 2026, and further expansions planned for Beihai and Dongguan in 2027 [3]. - Capital expenditures are anticipated to decrease to 11 billion yuan in FY26 from 12.8 billion yuan in the previous year, easing mid-term depreciation and interest expense pressures [3].

上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 李晨 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525060001 邮箱：lichen1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 玖龙纸业：量价齐升，浆纸协同助力盈利修复 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 2 月 26 日 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 玖龙纸业(2689.HK) 投资评级 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] FY26H1 业绩报告（截至 25 年 12 月 31 日的六个月）。报 告期内收入实现 372.21 亿元（同比+11.2%），归母净利润为 19.66 亿元（同 比+318.8%）。 点评：量价同步改善，盈利稳步提升。根据我们拆分，报告期内公司销量实 现 ...