证券分析师 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2026/02/24） 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.24） 固定收益研究 债市延续偏强震荡——利率债周报 行业研究 1-8 批国家药品集采平稳接续，基药目录管理办法印发——医药生物行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/02/24） 固定收益研究 债市延续偏强震荡——利率债周报 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 统计区间：2026 年 2 月 6 日至 2026 年 2 月 12 日。 统计期内，一级市场共发行利率债 96 只，实际发行总额为 9643 亿元，节前发行规模依然较高，其中，国 债发行规模增加，专项债发行规模小幅减少。 4、二级市场：债市延续偏强震荡 统计期内债市延续偏强震荡特征， ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry in China, indicating a positive trend in the number of enterprises and overall market potential from 2026 to 2032 [1] Industry Summary - As of January to December 2025, the number of enterprises in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry reached 27,102, an increase of 815 compared to the previous year, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [1] - This sector accounts for 5.15% of the total industrial enterprises in China, reflecting its significance within the broader industrial landscape [1] - The report is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics and compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1] Company Summary - The report mentions several listed companies in the chemical sector, including Hainan Haiyao (000566), Northeast Pharmaceutical (000597), and others, indicating a diverse range of players in the market [1] - Zhiyan Consulting provides comprehensive industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services, emphasizing its role in supporting investment decisions in the chemical industry [1]

Core Insights - The IBI EXPO 2026 Biopharmaceutical Innovation Conference will provide a high-level platform for communication and collaboration in the innovative drug industry [1] - Recent favorable news in the innovative drug sector includes a significant increase in licensing agreements, with Chinese companies signing $137.7 billion in deals in 2025, nearly a tenfold increase from 2021 [1][2] - The trend of Chinese biopharmaceutical companies entering international licensing agreements is accelerating, with major collaborations such as the $8.85 billion deal between Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly [1][5] Market Focus - The IBI EXPO 2026 conference serves as a catalyst for the innovative drug sector, highlighting the substantial growth in licensing agreements and the transition from research investment to commercial realization [2] - The number of licensing agreements reached 186 in 2025, with a total transaction value of $137.7 billion, marking a record high for the past decade [3][5] - Companies like Innovent Biologics and Rongchang Biopharma are transitioning from loss to profit, indicating a clear improvement in the overall profitability of the industry [2][3] Broker Insights - Open Source Securities notes that the period from 2017 to 2026 is a "golden decade" for Chinese pharmaceutical companies, with licensing agreements skyrocketing from $2.562 billion in 2017 to $137.7 billion in 2025 [3] - The overall revenue growth in innovative drugs is evident, with over 70% of companies reporting positive revenue growth in 2025, showcasing strong commercial capabilities [3] - The innovative drug sector has seen a price correction over the past two quarters, but long-term prospects remain positive, suggesting an increase in sector allocation [3] Related Industries - The innovative drug sector is transitioning from a research investment phase to a commercialization phase, with significant implications for the CXO (Contract Research Organization) industry, which is expected to benefit from increased orders [5] - The new business model of external licensing is expected to enhance the early-stage research pipeline, benefiting companies involved in drug discovery and clinical trials [4][5] - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs "going global" is becoming systematic, with major collaborations indicating a shift towards international development [5] Industry Chain Companies - Heng Rui Medicine is a representative company in the domestic chemical innovative drug sector, with a diverse pipeline and ongoing internationalization efforts [7] - Sanofi Biopharma has received approval for its self-developed monoclonal antibody, further enriching its commercial product pipeline [7] - Companies like Rongchang Biopharma and Ailis are demonstrating strong revenue growth and successful international collaborations, indicating a positive trend in the innovative drug sector [7][8]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Neutral" rating, with specific company ratings of "Buy" for Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (600276) and "Increase" for WuXi Biologics (603259) [46] Core Insights - The recent national drug procurement has been stable, with active participation from companies and continued benefits for patients [8][9] - The issuance of the "National Basic Drug Directory Management Measures" aims to enhance the management of essential medicines [10][11] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical reported positive top-line results for its GLP-1/GIP dual receptor agonist, indicating significant weight loss in clinical trials [12] - The approval of Mu Feng Da® for the treatment of adult type 2 diabetes marks a significant development in the market [12] Industry News - The national drug procurement involved 316 commonly used drugs across 26 therapeutic areas, with a high participation rate from over 5,100 medical institutions and 1,091 companies [8][9] - The procurement process has been standardized, allowing companies to bid online once for nationwide sales, significantly reducing costs [9] - The management measures for the national basic drug directory have been revised to include legal policy bases and optimize the directory structure [10][11] Company Announcements - Innovent Biologics has entered a global strategic partnership with Eli Lilly to advance new drug development in oncology and immunology [26] - Kelun Pharmaceutical's TROP2 ADC has received approval for a fourth indication from the NMPA [27] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical's drug has been included in the list of breakthrough therapy products, and its application for marketing approval has been accepted for priority review [28] - WuXi Biologics has forecasted a positive earnings outlook, expecting a revenue increase of approximately 16.7% [30] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.43%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.37%, with the SW Pharmaceutical and Biotech Index up by 0.23% [36] - The industry’s price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 51.17, with a valuation premium of 259% compared to the CSI 300 [40] Weekly Strategy - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in innovative drugs, CXO, and upstream life sciences, while also monitoring performance recovery indicators [46]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The report discusses the transition of the US economy from a "K-shaped divergence" to a "re-inflation" phase, indicating that the lower end of the K-shaped economy is beginning to converge with the upper end, supported by refinancing loans from the high-net-worth group [1][2][16] - It highlights the self-reinforcing mechanism of inflation expectations, where demand-driven inflation can lower real interest rates and compress credit spreads, leading to a unique situation where actual mortgage rates are at a three-year low despite rising long-term US Treasury yields [2][16] - The report notes a shift in global liquidity from easing expectations to tightening, with Bitcoin serving as a barometer for this transition, suggesting a non-typical re-inflation trade influenced by a combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reductions [3][16] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Perpetual Bonds - The issuance of perpetual bonds is primarily aimed at reducing corporate leverage, with significant peaks in issuance observed during 2018-2020 and ongoing demand from high-leverage state-owned enterprises since 2023, with annual net financing expected to be between 200-300 billion yuan [5][31] - The report outlines the evolution of issuance terms, noting an increase in the proportion of 5+N terms in recent years, indicating a trend towards longer maturities as credit spreads narrow [6][32] - It discusses the characteristics of perpetual bonds, emphasizing the balance between debt-like and equity-like features, with over 60% of recent issuances containing subordinate clauses to meet accounting standards [7][34] Group 3: Company Coverage - Rongzhi Rixin - The report initiates coverage on Rongzhi Rixin, projecting significant revenue growth driven by AI models and smart devices, with expected revenues of 687 million, 839 million, and 1,047 million yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [9][29] - It highlights the company's comprehensive technology system that enhances diagnostic efficiency by 3-5 times, supported by a substantial database of over 187,000 monitoring devices and 33,000+ failure cases, establishing a strong competitive moat [11][30] - The company is positioned in a high-growth sector, with a focus on industrial equipment maintenance across various industries, and has shown remarkable profit growth, with a 2063.42% increase in net profit year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [12][30]

Group 1: Target Price Increases - Semiconductor company SMIC (中芯国际) has a target price increase of 45.82%, with a new target price of 170.00 CNY [2][3] - Chemical pharmaceutical company Kelun Pharmaceutical (科伦药业) has a target price increase of 42.98%, with a new target price of 45.41 CNY [2][3] - Professional engineering company Yaxing Integration (亚翔集成) has a target price increase of 34.30%, with a new target price of 189.20 CNY [2][3] Group 2: Broker Recommendations - A total of 20 listed companies received broker recommendations on February 12, with Top Group (拓普集团) and China Duty Free Group (中国中免) each receiving recommendations from 2 brokers [4] - Wanhua Chemical (皖维高新) received a "Recommended" rating from Guolian Minsheng Securities [5][7] - Longxin General (隆鑫通用) received a "Buy" rating from Kaiyuan Securities [5][7] - Weilon Co., Ltd. (伟隆股份) received an "Increase" rating from Dongwu Securities [5][7] - AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group (中航西飞) received an "Outperform" rating from Guoxin Securities [5][7] - Giant Star Technology (巨星科技) received an "Increase" rating from Western Securities [5][7] Group 3: First Coverage - On February 12, brokers provided 7 instances of first coverage, indicating a growing interest in various companies [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that on February 12, brokerage firms set target prices for listed companies, with 9 instances recorded, and 6 stocks showing target price increases exceeding 20% [1] - The companies with the highest target price increases based on the latest closing prices include SMIC, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and Yaxing Integration, with increases of 45.82%, 42.98%, and 34.30% respectively [1] - The sectors represented by these companies are semiconductor, chemical pharmaceuticals, and professional engineering [1]

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent national procurement has been stable, with limited disruptions, and institutions are increasing their positions in innovative companies, maintaining a positive outlook on undervalued innovative targets [1][4] - The overall market sentiment has improved, driven by significant business development transactions, and the pharmaceutical sector is expected to continue its steady growth in 2026, despite potential short-term volatility [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.3% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 5.0%, ranking second among 12 industry indices [4][6] - Sub-sectors such as biopharmaceuticals and CXO both saw a growth of 7.4% [6] Institutional Holdings - Since Q4 2025, the proportion of domestic capital holding pharmaceutical stocks through Hong Kong Stock Connect has slightly decreased, while foreign capital holdings have increased [32] - As of February 10, 2026, domestic holdings were at 22.2%, down 0.2 percentage points, while foreign holdings rose to 39.7%, up 0.9 percentage points [32] Sales Performance - In 2025, China's pharmaceutical market sales decreased by 1% year-on-year, with public hospitals accounting for the largest market share at 10,977 billion RMB, down 2.1% [5] - Retail pharmacy sales reached 5,878 billion RMB, growing by 2.4%, with online pharmacies seeing a significant increase of 13.6% [5] National Procurement - The recent national procurement round had a high selection rate of 93%, with 1,020 products from 1,091 participating companies expected to be implemented by the end of March 2026 [5] - The procurement process has seen increased participation and a diverse range of selected products, ensuring stability in clinical demand [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on innovative drugs, particularly companies like Sanofi and Hengrui Medicine, which have rich catalysts and clear long-term growth logic [4] - It also suggests looking into CXO companies benefiting from high downstream demand and improving financing conditions, such as WuXi AppTec [4]

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent national procurement has been stable, with a high selection rate of 93%, indicating a positive outlook for innovative companies in the sector [4][5] - The market sentiment has improved, driven by significant business development (BD) transactions, suggesting a continuation of the positive trend in 2026 despite potential short-term volatility [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on fundamentals and valuations when selecting stocks, particularly undervalued innovative companies that have been overlooked during market fluctuations [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.3% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 5.0%, outperforming the broader market [4][6] - Sub-sectors such as biopharmaceuticals and CXO both saw a growth of 7.4% [6] Institutional Holdings - As of February 10, 2026, domestic institutional holdings through Hong Kong Stock Connect slightly decreased to 22.2%, while foreign holdings increased to 39.7%, indicating a shift towards more positive sentiment among foreign investors [32] - Key increases in holdings were noted in leading CXO companies benefiting from demand recovery, such as Tigermed and WuXi AppTec [37][38] Valuation Overview - The report provides a valuation summary for various companies, with notable buy ratings for AstraZeneca, BeiGene, and others, indicating strong growth potential [3] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the healthcare sector is reported at 28.4 times, with specific segments like biopharmaceuticals at 13.1 times [16] Sales Trends - The report notes a 1% year-on-year decline in China's pharmaceutical market sales for 2025, with significant variations across different sales channels [5] - Public hospitals accounted for the largest market share but experienced a 2.1% decline, while retail pharmacies saw a 2.4% increase, driven by online sales growth [5] Procurement Insights - The recent national procurement round involved 316 commonly used drugs, with a high participation rate and diverse product offerings, ensuring stable clinical supply [5] - The procurement process has been refined to enhance quality and reliability, with stricter requirements for participating companies [5]

Macroeconomic Insights - January non-farm employment data exceeded expectations with an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly higher than the anticipated 65,000[2] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%, despite a rise in labor participation rate[2] - The Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts until June, with market expectations for a rate cut probability of less than 6% in March[3] Inflation and Economic Trends - The U.S. economy is transitioning from a "K-shaped" recovery to a "re-inflation" phase, with high-net-worth individuals stabilizing the economy through refinancing[6] - Inflation expectations are self-reinforcing, with actual mortgage rates at a three-year low, contributing to a recovery in the housing sector[8] - The housing affordability index remains above 100, indicating that median-income households can still afford homes despite high prices[21] Industry-Specific Developments - The traditional electronic fabric market is experiencing accelerated price increases due to supply shortages, with prices rising by 0.5-0.6 RMB/m[43] - The AI electronic fabric sector is expected to see significant growth in 2026, driven by demand from AI chips and consumer electronics[46] - The coal industry is projected to benefit from a resurgence in coal power in the U.S., with companies like Peabody Energy and China Shenhua expected to gain[51]