Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations have upgraded, leading to intensified trading. Recent optimistic interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, driving both precious and industrial metals to break through previous levels. The negative feedback for copper and aluminum has notably weakened, and improvements in the real economy may be observed under high price conditions. Overall, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The cycle assessment indicates an upgrade in liquidity expectations and a continuation of intense trading. The probability of BlackRock executive Riedel being elected as the Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 54%. The optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts have reignited, pushing precious and industrial metals to new highs. Although copper and aluminum inventories continue to accumulate, the pace of accumulation has slowed, and the negative feedback from downstream processing has significantly diminished, with operating rates beginning to recover [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.03%, ranking fourth among all industries [28]. The precious metals sector experienced the highest gains [21]. 3. Precious Metals - For precious metals, trading has become intensely liquid, awaiting the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chairman nomination. As of January 23, SHFE gold rose by 8.07% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 7.54% to 4,036.00 USD per ounce. The inventory levels for SHFE gold were 102 tons, an increase of 1.96 tons from the previous week [14][30]. 4. Copper - The copper market is experiencing renewed support due to supply disruptions. As of January 23, SHFE copper rose by 0.57% to 101,340 CNY per ton, and LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton. The operating rate for refined copper rods was 67.98%, up by 10.51 percentage points [17][29]. 5. Aluminum - The aluminum market shows signs of demand recovery as negative feedback weakens. As of January 23, SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, and LME aluminum increased by 1.12% to 3,169 USD per ton. The processing operating rate rose by 0.7 percentage points to 60.9% [16][85].

Group 1 - Since September 2024, the proportion of southbound capital in transaction volume has rapidly increased to 20%-30%, nearly doubling compared to before 2024, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [3][8] - Historical reviews of two rounds of competition for pricing power in the Hong Kong stock market occurred in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021, typically initiated by policy optimizations and inflows of incremental capital [15][28] - The current southbound capital inflow is characterized by a higher proportion of medium to long-term funds, with insurance capital making 41 stakes in 2025, 35 of which were in H-shares, marking a record high in the past decade [3][31] Group 2 - The industries where southbound capital and Chinese capital have pricing power include semiconductors and dividend-paying sectors, while industries lacking pricing power include internet, hardware, software services, home appliances, and media [3][36] - The top five industries by southbound capital holdings include coal (41.8%), semiconductors (32.7%), environmental protection (24.5%), oil and petrochemicals (24.1%), and pharmaceutical biology (20.5%) [37] - The active management public funds have a low preference for Hong Kong stocks, with significant holdings concentrated in AI-related CSP giants, electronics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [46] Group 3 - The current sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market has fully reflected negative factors such as US-China trade friction and the high unlock peak at the end of last year, suggesting potential upward investment opportunities if liquidity pressure eases [53][54] - The spring rally in the Hong Kong stock market has a high probability of success, with southbound capital and foreign capital expected to net inflow at the beginning of the year, driven by the demand for core Chinese assets [53][54] - The pricing power of southbound capital is rapidly increasing, with expectations of a potential upward beta in the Hong Kong stock market at the beginning of the year [3][53]

风险提示 新能源金属：电动车及储能需求不及预期；基本金属：中国消费 修复不及预期；贵金属：美联储降息不及预期。 强于大市（维持评级） 有色金属 2026 年 01 月 24 日 行 业 研 究 有色金属 20260124 周报：贵金属价格创历史新高，基本面 推动锂价上涨 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：美债遭遇抛售,贵金属加速上涨。本周贵金属再度加速上涨， 突破历史新高，其中COMEX黄金接近5000美元/盎司，COMEX白银突破100 美元/盎司大关。1月20日，全球债市遭遇集体抛售，美债和日债领跌，日 债收益率历史性突破4%关口，为三十余年首次。欧洲多国宣布抛售美债， 10年期美国国债收益率攀升引发市场避险情绪并导致对于贵金属的配置需 求激增。丹麦表示将在月底前清仓所持全部1亿美国国债，引发多国连锁反 应。短期而言，美联储降息预期摇摆，整体呈现易涨难跌格局；中长期而 言，全球关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄 金交易的核心，长期配置价值不改。个股：黄金关注招金灵宝万国紫金黄 金，A股关注紫金、中金、赤峰及西金等；H股关注潼关、山金、招矿及集 海等。银铂钯均为黄金的贝塔，个 ...

位于江西省的江铜集团贵溪冶炼厂智能化电解车间内，机器臂进行铜板转运作业。 新华社记者 万 象摄 2025年经济社会发展各项数据近日"出炉"，如何评价中国经济全年表现？作为"十五五"开局之年，2026 年中国经济核心潜力主要体现在哪些方面？如何充分挖掘中国经济潜能？国家发展改革委有关负责人在 国新办日前举行的新闻发布会上一一进行了解读。 交出了一份高质量答卷 "2025年，经济运行稳中有进，发展韧性进一步彰显，民生政策更有温度，交出了一份高质量答卷。"国 家发展改革委副主任王昌林说。 经济实力跃上新台阶。面对风高浪急的外部环境，全年经济总量迈上140万亿元新台阶，5%的增速在全 球主要经济体中继续保持前列，增量相当于一个中等规模经济体的总量。 新质生产力发展取得新突破。创新成果竞相涌现，人工智能、生物医药、机器人等研发应用走在世界前 列。扎实推进现代化产业体系建设，传统产业焕新升级，新兴产业、未来产业加快塑造新动能，制造业 增加值连续16年位居全球第一。"实践证明，'卡脖子'是卡不住的，中国拥有强大的创新基因和巨大的 创新潜能。"王昌林说。 "展望2026年，我国经济结构将持续向'优'、发展动能持续向'新'、整 ...

格隆汇1月23日丨江西铜业股份(00358.HK)公告，将于2026年3月26日(星期四)举行董事会会议，以考虑 及批准(其中包括)发布有关公司及其附属公司截至2025年12月31日止年度业绩公告，及建议派发末期股 息(如有)。 ...

格隆汇1月23日丨江西铜业股份(00358.HK)公告，将于2026年3月26日(星期四)举行董事会会议，以考虑 及批准(其中包括)发布有关公司及其附属公司截至2025年12月31日止年度业绩公告，及建议派发末期股 息(如有)。 ...

锚定铜、钨、稀土等核心资源禀赋，江西有色金属产业迎来里程碑式突破：2025年，全省有色金属产业 营收正式跨越万亿元大关，成为继电子信息产业后第二个万亿级产业集群，实现了从"资源优势"到"产 业优势"的关键一跃。 聚链成群、创新提质、政策赋能……近年来，江西以深化实施"1269"行动计划为牵引，大力推进重点产 业链群融合发展，有效激发有色金属产业发展动能。"十四五"以来，江西有色金属产业持续跃升，产业 规模较"十三五"末增长2000多亿元，展现了传统优势产业的发展韧劲与后劲。 聚链成群 产业攀高启新程 作为我国重要的有色金属矿产资源和产业基地，江西拥有丰富的有色矿产资源，铜、钨、稀土等"七朵 金花"储量居全国前列。新余、鹰潭、萍乡等设区市均因矿业开发而设立，形成了各具特色的有色产业 集群，成为区域经济发展的"压舱石"。 尽管有色产业贡献显著，但面对新形势新任务，资源依赖度高、产品附加值低、产业结构"头重脚轻"等 结构性、深层次问题，逐渐成为制约江西经济高质量发展的关键瓶颈。 如何破题？江西提出产业链现代化"1269"行动计划，坚持链式发展，持续深化延链补链强链工程，以 铜、钨和稀土等特色优势领域为重点，全力推动 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the development prospects and investment opportunities in the global and Chinese copper smelting industry, highlighting key policies and industry trends [1]. Policy Evolution - The evolution of copper smelting policies in China has transitioned from increasing production capacity and scale to optimizing structure and promoting green and efficient practices, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the exploration and development of strategic mineral resources, with copper being a key focus due to its high external dependence and importance to supply chain security [2]. National Policy Summary and Interpretation - A summary of key national policies related to the copper smelting industry indicates a focus on technological upgrades and energy efficiency improvements, with various policies introduced since 1985 aimed at modernizing smelting techniques [5][6]. - As of November 2025, several significant policies have been outlined, including energy-saving measures and the promotion of recycling and clean production standards [6][7]. Development Goals - By 2027, the copper industry aims to enhance supply chain resilience and security, with domestic copper resource growth targeted at 5%-10% and increased recycling rates [9][10]. - By 2035, the industry aspires to achieve world-leading levels in supply chain capabilities, technological innovation, and overall competitiveness [9][10]. Provincial Policy Summary and Interpretation - The copper smelting industry is increasingly concentrated in coastal and resource-rich regions, with provinces like Fujian and Guangxi emerging as new key players alongside traditional bases [10]. - Each province has tailored its policies to align with national directives, focusing on local needs and conditions to support the development of the copper smelting sector [10][12]. Specific Provincial Policies - Jiangxi's policy includes support for building national-level copper material clusters and promoting high-value recycling of copper [12]. - Anhui's initiatives focus on controlling blind expansion of copper smelting capacity and promoting low-carbon technologies [12]. - Shandong aims to enhance energy efficiency in copper smelting through technological upgrades and process improvements [12]. - Gansu's strategy includes developing a world-class copper new materials processing base and enhancing resource security through exploration [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to enhance domestic customer penetration, develop new customers, and continue promoting import substitution while leveraging its brand influence and talent aggregation from being publicly listed [1] Group 1: Domestic Strategy - The company plans to increase domestic customer penetration [1] - There is a focus on developing new customers [1] - The company will continue to promote import substitution [1] Group 2: International Expansion - The company intends to actively explore traditional markets in Europe and the United States, as well as emerging markets in BRICS countries, Southeast Asia, and Africa [1] - The company aims to deeply participate in the supply chain for mineral projects of Chinese enterprises like Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper overseas [1] Group 3: Product and Service Offering - The company will provide high-reliability all-steel giant tires and tire operation management services [1]

Group 1 - The industrial metal sector experienced a decline of 0.52% on January 22, with Jiangxi Copper leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.5% [1] - Notable gainers in the industrial metal sector included Silver Industry, which rose by 10.04%, and Hesheng Co., which increased by 6.87% [1] Group 2 - Jiangxi Copper's stock price fell by 3.04% to 60.30, with a trading volume of 514,500 shares and a total transaction value of 3.11 billion [2] - The industrial metal sector saw a net outflow of 2.759 billion from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 2.323 billion [2] - The top stocks with significant net inflows from retail investors included Jinchuan Group and Jiaozao Wanfang, with inflows of 759.42 million and 576.53 million respectively [3]