Core Viewpoint - The stock of YouRan Dairy (09858) has risen over 7%, reaching a new high of 4.91 HKD, driven by positive market sentiment and expectations of price stabilization in the raw milk sector [1] Company Summary - YouRan Dairy is the largest raw milk supplier in China, operating 100 farms and raising approximately 620,000 dairy cows, with an expected raw milk production of about 3.74 million tons in 2024, accounting for 12.1% of the national total [1] - The company is a leading player in the upstream industry, also being the largest supplier of ruminant feed in China, with its subsidiary, Saike Xing, recognized as the largest dairy cattle breeding enterprise in the country [1] - In the first half of this year, the average feed cost for raw milk was 1.91 HKD per kilogram, with the average yield per cow reaching 12.9 tons, which is considered industry-leading [1] Industry Summary - According to a report from Guojin Securities, the price of raw milk has recently rebounded to around 3 HKD per kilogram, which has slowed the industry's destocking rate [1] - Despite significant financial pressures and ongoing losses within the industry, there is an expectation for continued destocking of production capacity, which may lead to a stabilization and potential increase in raw milk prices next year [1] - The prices of calves and live cattle have also seen an increase recently, indicating the potential for a new cycle in the beef cattle market, which could enhance the overall sector's performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yurun Dairy (09858) has seen its stock price increase by over 7%, reaching a new high of 4.91 HKD, driven by rising raw milk prices and expectations of industry recovery [1] Company Summary - Yurun Dairy is the largest raw milk supplier in China, operating 100 farms and raising approximately 620,000 dairy cows, with an expected raw milk production of about 3.74 million tons in 2024, accounting for 12.1% of the national total [1] - The company is a leading player in the upstream industry, being the largest supplier of ruminant feed in China, and its subsidiary, Saikexing, is the largest dairy cattle breeding company in the country [1] - In the first half of this year, Yurun Dairy reported an average feed cost of 1.91 HKD per kilogram for raw milk, with a per cow yield of 12.9 tons, which is considered industry-leading [1] Industry Summary - Recent reports indicate that the price of raw milk has rebounded to around 3 HKD per kilogram, which has slowed the industry's destocking rate [1] - Despite significant financial pressures and ongoing losses within the industry, capacity reduction is expected to continue, leading to a stabilization and potential recovery of raw milk prices next year [1] - In the beef cattle sector, prices for calves and live cattle have recently increased, suggesting the possibility of a new beef cattle cycle, which may enhance the overall sector's performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global authoritative carbon emission rating agency, CDP, has awarded Yuran Dairy a management level rating of B for its outstanding practices in greenhouse gas reduction, water resource management, and forest resource protection [1][4]. Group 1: Carbon Emission Reduction - Yuran Dairy has established a comprehensive carbon accounting model for its entire industry chain, from grass to milk, and has developed a full-cycle green carbon reduction model that includes low-carbon breeding, low-carbon feed research, biogas power generation, and low-carbon farming [4]. - The company has created China's first "carbon neutral" dairy farm in Pingdingshan, Henan, setting a benchmark for the industry in achieving carbon neutrality [4]. - Yuran Dairy has achieved 14 low-carbon results across its entire industry chain, including the first zero-carbon factory in the domestic feed industry and the highest VCS carbon credit approval in the industry [4]. Group 2: Water Resource Management - Yuran Dairy focuses on lifecycle water safety and has implemented projects for water recycling, optimizing processes to enhance water resource efficiency [6]. - The company has developed an AI spraying system that saves over 45% water compared to traditional methods and has switched to air cooling for milk cooling systems, achieving 100% water savings [6]. - New irrigation technologies being researched are projected to save over 40% water compared to traditional irrigation methods [6]. Group 3: Forest Protection - Yuran Dairy manages the procurement of feed materials with a risk of forest destruction and has partnered with the renowned international grain trader, Louis Dreyfus Company, to supply "deforestation-free" soybean materials [8]. - In 2024, the company plans to procure 181,200 tons of "deforestation-free" soybeans in collaboration with Louis Dreyfus [8]. - Yuran Dairy has established China's first green low-carbon smart farm that commits to using only "deforestation-free" soybeans, demonstrating its commitment to sustainable development [8]. Group 4: Recognition and Future Outlook - Yuran Dairy's green initiatives have received recognition from various international and domestic organizations, including the first animal health carbon footprint certification and being listed in the S&P Sustainability Yearbook for two consecutive years [10]. - The recent CDP B rating will serve as a new starting point for the company to deepen its green transformation and continue leading in high-quality development [10].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（187） 优于大市 牧业产能维持去化，看好肉奶周期共振反转 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。12 月 19 日，鸡蛋主 产区价格 3.07 元/斤，周环比-0.65%，同比-5.98%。 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。12 月 19 日生猪价格 11.57 元/ 公斤，周环比+2.03%；7kg 仔猪价格约 218.57 元/头，周环比-0.43%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。12 月 19 日，鸡苗价格 3.37 元/ 羽，周环比-0.30%；毛鸡价格 7.28 元/公斤，周环比+0.55%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。12 月 18 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 5.0/5.9/7.5 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +8.70%/+5.36%/-8.54%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好牛周期反转上行。12 月 12 日，国内育肥 公牛出栏价为 25.40 元/kg，环比+0.79 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [9]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.79% week-on-week, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing a downward price trend, with an average pig price of 11.58 yuan/kg, indicating ongoing losses across the sector [22][23]. - Poultry farming is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of the price cycle, with white feather chicken prices at 7.35 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight recovery in profits [29]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, with live cattle prices in Shandong at 26.68 yuan/kg [36]. - The planting industry is witnessing a tightening supply-demand situation, with corn prices rising to 2244.29 yuan/ton, indicating potential for price increases [41][42]. - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.33 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing upward trends [55]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 130.18 kg, with ongoing losses in the industry prompting a reduction in production capacity [23][22]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term, but a potential recovery in the medium to long term due to improved profit margins for leading companies [23][22]. 2. Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices are under pressure, while yellow feather chicken prices are showing resilience due to improved demand and reduced supply [29]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming is expected to improve as consumer demand recovers [29]. 3. Livestock - The beef market is poised for price increases, supported by a seasonal demand surge and reduced supply from imports [36]. - Dairy prices are stabilizing, with average purchase prices for raw milk at 3.02 yuan/kg, indicating a potential for recovery in the dairy sector [39]. 4. Planting Industry - Corn prices are on the rise, with a current price of 2244.29 yuan/ton, reflecting a tightening supply situation [41]. - The report highlights the potential for improved conditions in the planting sector if there are significant reductions in crop yields due to adverse weather [42]. 5. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.33 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are trending upwards, particularly for shrimp and fish [55][60].

人民财讯12月19日电，12月19日，胡润研究院发布《2025胡润中国食品行业百强榜》，安德利果汁、优 然牧业、中国食品、巨星农牧、椰树、京基智农、五得利面粉、现代牧业等8家企业新进入榜单。 转自：证券时报 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,629, down 1.34% for the day and up 27.76% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.48%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 1.78%[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.55%, with a year-to-date increase of 15.40%[3] Sector Performance - Technology stocks faced significant losses, with Baidu down over 5%, Kuaishou down over 4%, and Alibaba down over 3%[9] - Semiconductor stocks also weakened, with InnoLight down over 9% and Hua Hong Semiconductor down over 6%[9] - Biopharmaceutical stocks saw substantial declines, with Kelun Pharmaceutical and BeiGene both down over 8%[9] Gold and Insurance Stocks - Gold and precious metal stocks performed well, with Zijin Mining up over 7% and Chifeng Jilong Gold up over 5%[9] - Insurance stocks rose collectively, with New China Life Insurance up over 4% and China Pacific Insurance up over 2%[9] Economic Data Focus - The market is anticipating key economic data releases, including the November non-farm payrolls and October retail sales, which are expected to provide important guidance for market direction[9] - The unemployment rate in urban areas was reported at 5.1% for November, with retail sales totaling 43,898 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.3%[14] U.S. Market Trends - U.S. stock indices opened higher but closed lower, with significant pressure from AI-related stocks[9] - Major tech stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon experienced declines, while Meta and Nvidia saw slight gains[9] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 2.17%, with Alibaba down 3.59% and JD down 2.00%[9]

Core Insights - The report indicates that China's economy continued to show steady progress in November, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 1.34% and significant trading activity in the stock market [2][3] - The report highlights the performance of various sectors, including a rise in consumer goods and gold stocks, with notable increases in companies like Xiaomi and China Ping An [2][4] Company Overview - The specific company under review, Zhihui Mining (2546.HK), is engaged in the exploration, mining, and production of zinc, lead, and copper in Tibet, ranking fifth, fourth, and fifth respectively in these categories for 2024 [8] - The company has significant mineral reserves, with open-pit and underground mines expected to operate for 8 and 31 years respectively [8][10] Financial Performance - The company's projected revenues for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are approximately RMB 482.35 million, RMB 546.13 million, and RMB 301.43 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.2% and a decline of 44.8% [9] - The gross profit margins for copper concentrate exceed 80%, while zinc concentrate margins are more volatile [9] Industry Status and Outlook - The demand for zinc concentrate in Tibet is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.5% from 2018 to 2024, with a slight recovery expected from 2025 to 2028 [10] - The report anticipates stable zinc concentrate prices between RMB 18,600 and RMB 19,000 per ton, with a similar upward trend expected for lead and copper concentrates [10] Advantages and Opportunities - The company benefits from resource and geographical advantages, being located in a region rich in metals such as lead, zinc, copper, and silver [11] - A professional technical team and good community relations further enhance the company's operational capabilities [11] Use of Proceeds - The company plans to allocate approximately 29.2% of the funds raised for enhancing mining capabilities, 23.4% for exploration investments, and 18.7% for improving ore processing and production optimization [13][14] Investment Recommendation - The company has achieved profitability with a net profit of over HKD 100 million, and despite challenges in 2024, a recovery is anticipated [16] - The report suggests a cautious approach to investment, rating the company at "5.5" and recommending attention due to its positive cash flow and the potential for oversubscription in its IPO [16]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong and A-share markets saw a significant rise in baby and child-related stocks, particularly in the dairy sector, with several companies hitting their daily limit up [1] - In A-shares, companies such as Huangshi Group, Junyao Health, Nanjiao Food, and Sunshine Dairy reached their daily limit, while Knight Dairy rose over 8% [1] - In Hong Kong stocks, Youran Dairy increased by over 7%, Modern Dairy by over 3%, and Mengniu Dairy by 1% [1][3] Policy Impact - The recent surge in the market is attributed to a major signal released during the National Medical Security Work Conference on December 13, which stated the goal of achieving "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth within the policy scope by 2026 [3] - The government is actively implementing a series of supportive policies for childbirth, including extended maternity leave, childcare subsidies, and educational housing support, to create a more favorable environment for childbirth [4] - The implementation of a national childcare subsidy system is set to begin on January 1, 2025, providing annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child under three years old [4][5] Demographic Trends - The national birth population is projected to reach 9.54 million in 2024, marking the first increase since 2017, although the overall population continues to decline [8] - The birth population for 2025 is expected to range between 7 million and 8.71 million, potentially hitting a record low since 1950 [8] - The central government's focus on stabilizing the birth population indicates a commitment to enhancing fertility policies, which may lead to increased demand in the maternal and infant sectors [6][8] Industry Outlook - The new policies are expected to directly benefit sectors such as assisted reproduction and obstetric healthcare, while also providing sustained advantages to the maternal and infant consumption industry chain, including retail, food, and supplies [8] - Analysts suggest that the government's financial support and the anticipated increase in newborns will boost consumer confidence and improve demand for infant formula products [8]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market faced downward pressure, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.34% to 25,628.88 points, and a total trading volume of HKD 204.29 billion [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 1.78% to 8,917.7 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 2.48% to 5,498.42 points [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Li Ning (02331) led the blue-chip stocks, rising by 5.43% to HKD 18.64, contributing 3.53 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - New Oriental-S (09901) increased by 2.81% to HKD 43.2, contributing 1.46 points, while China Ping An (02318) rose by 2.35% to HKD 65.25, contributing 16.07 points [2] - Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) fell by 7.58% to HKD 39.74, negatively impacting the index by 7.88 points, and SMIC (00981) dropped by 4.43% to HKD 64.7, contributing a decline of 21.64 points [2] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks generally declined, with Alibaba down by 3.57% and Tencent by 2.11%, amid renewed concerns over an AI bubble following disappointing earnings from leading AI companies [3] - Gold stocks saw significant gains as international gold prices approached historical highs, with Zijin Mining (02259) rising by 7.76% to HKD 158.4 [3] - Dairy stocks also performed well, with Yurun Dairy (09858) increasing by 7.67% to HKD 4.63, supported by favorable policies for childbirth [4] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector showed strong performance, with China Ping An (02318) reaching a four-year high, rising by 2.35% to HKD 65.25 [5] - Other insurers like New China Life (01336) and China Pacific Insurance (02601) also saw gains, attributed to regulatory changes that allow for more long-term investment funds [5][6] Notable Stock Movements - CloudTop New Horizon (01952) rose by 4.55% to HKD 46.88, with significant insider buying reported [7] - Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) faced pressure, dropping by 7.25% to HKD 33.78, ahead of a significant unlock of cornerstone investor shares [8]