丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 回顾反内卷政策，2026 年钢铁分级管理怎么走？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 回顾 2025 年，反内卷无疑是钢铁行业最受关注的交易主线。作为低价内卷的典型行业，也是 过往供改的重点行业，市场期待随着反内卷的渐进深化，钢铁的供给侧具有出清的预期。尽管 2025 年暂未看到反内卷的具体举措落地，但通过对重点政策的系统性梳理，可以清晰地理出 "分级管理、扶优劣汰"的调控思路。随着 2026 年政策抓手和配套政策的进一步完善，行业 有望迎来供给侧出清的机遇。考虑到近年来产量压减政策的延续性和"扶优劣汰"的思路，不 规范企业或具有更大的产量压减幅度，从而具有市场化出清的预期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 1.93%, outperforming the broader market, while specific segments like special steel and iron ore also saw gains [2][11] - Supply and demand dynamics indicate a tightening supply situation, with high furnace capacity utilization at 84.9% and a slight decrease in production [3][25] - The report highlights the potential for value recovery in the steel sector, particularly for companies with high gross margins and strong cost control [4] Supply Summary - As of December 19, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies is 84.9%, down by 0.99 percentage points week-on-week [3][25] - Daily average pig iron production is 2.2655 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.65 thousand tons [3][25] - The total production of five major steel products is 6.918 million tons, down by 3.92 thousand tons week-on-week [3][25] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.353 million tons as of December 19, a decrease of 4.44 thousand tons week-on-week [3][35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 99 thousand tons, showing a slight increase of 0.10 thousand tons week-on-week [3][35] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of five major steel products is 9.065 million tons, down by 352.6 thousand tons week-on-week, but up 18.06% year-on-year [3][44] - Factory inventory stands at 3.883 million tons, down by 2.05 thousand tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 10.75% [3][44] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,448.7 yuan/ton, up by 14.76 yuan/ton week-on-week [3][50] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 42 yuan/ton, which has doubled week-on-week [3][57] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,423 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.0 yuan/ton [3][57] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-end steel production [4] - Specific companies to watch include Shandong Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel, among others, which are positioned for growth and value recovery [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies in the steel industry, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a disturbance in raw material supply, leading to differentiated performance in rebar and wire rod prices. The recent policy changes regarding coal export tariffs and the implementation of export licenses for steel products are expected to impact supply dynamics and pricing [9][12]. - Steel prices have shown an upward trend, with specific increases noted in various steel products as of December 19, 2025. For instance, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar rose to 3,320 CNY/ton, a 2.2% increase from the previous week [9][16]. - The report indicates a rise in steel profits, with margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel increasing by 32 CNY/ton, 23 CNY/ton, and 9 CNY/ton respectively [9][33]. - Inventory levels for major steel products have decreased, with total social inventory dropping by 351,800 tons to 9,054,600 tons as of December 19, 2025 [9][33]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of December 19, 2025, domestic steel prices have increased, with notable price changes across various products, including rebar and hot-rolled steel [9][16]. - The report details specific price movements, such as a 70 CNY/ton increase for rebar and a 50 CNY/ton increase for high-speed wire [9][17]. Profit Situation - The report estimates an increase in steel profits, with significant improvements in margins for both long and short process steel production [9][33]. Production and Inventory - Total production of major steel products decreased to 7.98 million tons, with a notable drop in inventory levels, indicating a tightening supply situation [9][33]. Key Companies and Valuation - The report provides a detailed valuation and earnings forecast for key companies, all of which are rated as "Buy." For example, Hualing Steel is projected to have an EPS of 0.29 CNY in 2024, with a PE ratio of 19 [2][3].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic research as a critical component of the investment system, suggesting that many past concerns about the Chinese economy were overblown, and a new narrative focusing on innovation and industrial manufacturing is emerging [1] - It highlights the cyclical nature of stock valuations, indicating that understanding undervaluation and overvaluation is essential for successful investment strategies [1] - The steel industry is currently positioned at an absolute undervaluation, presenting a significant opportunity for value investment, with expectations of recovery in capital returns as capacity utilization improves [4] Industry Trends - The report notes that the steel industry is entering a long-term decline phase following industrial maturity, characterized by stable demand and low capital returns, with a projected capacity utilization rate of 82% in 2026 [4] - It discusses the cyclical trajectory of the steel industry, indicating that the current low capital returns are conducive to supply adjustments and potential mergers within the industry [4] - The report anticipates that the marginal recovery in capacity utilization in 2026 will further enhance capital returns in the steel sector, contingent on effective policy implementation [4] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from improving capital returns, such as Baosteel, Hesteel, Nanjing Steel, and Xinyu Steel, as they are expected to provide significant investment value despite having moved away from absolute undervaluation [4] - It emphasizes the need for a detailed approach to selecting specific stocks within the steel sector, as the overall market dynamics shift towards a more stable economic environment [4] - The report suggests that the investment strategy should adapt to the changing economic landscape, where excess capital in society will influence market trends and stock valuations [4]

还有哪些完善空间？ 为解决传统交割模式与许多钢铁企业实际生产经营流程脱节难题，今年部分钢材期货品种引入了厂库交 割模式。2025年行至尾声，钢铁行业实操厂库交割模式的成效如何？ 第一财经记者获悉，自2025年7月首批钢材厂库发布以来，累计生成厂库标准仓单螺纹钢2.19万吨、热 轧卷板3.03万吨。 相较仓库交割模式，厂库交割更为灵活，以预售形式签发，货主拿到仓单后可以在场内交割，也可以在 场外转让。 浙江杭钢国贸有限公司期现部经理陈望林称，厂库交割模式吸引了更多产业链龙头企业成为厂库，使期 货交割流程与现货贸易习惯以及终端以销定产的生产习惯无缝衔接，也将社会库存虚拟化为可交割量， 可缓解交割品在短时间内不足的错配问题。 经过实操后，多位业内人士告诉第一财经，厂库仓单业务模式将实物的库存转化为数字化库存，就近提 货可以降低物流成本，满足个性化需求，也可以拓展钢铁行业销售渠道，希望未来交易所可以丰富抵押 工具降低融资成本，增加厂库数量。 "家门口"交割，降低成本 那么厂库仓单是怎么生成的？根据规则，首先货主需要与厂库结清货款，然后厂库发起注册申请，并向 交易所提交履约保函，经交易所审批后，仓单注册完成。厂库仓单可 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-19锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2603： 1.基本面：当前硅锰市场仍延续"强成本、弱需求"僵持格局，成本端的刚性支撑与需求端的不确定性形成博弈，市场整 体观望情绪浓厚，观望短期内主流钢厂招标价格的落地；中性。 2.基差：现货价5700元/吨，03合约基差-80/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行；SM2603：5700-5800震荡运行。 2 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/吨 14000元/吨 2020-01-01 2020-08-01 2021-03-01 2021-10-01 2022-05-01 2022-1 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Nanjing Scene Innovation Development Conference was held to discuss new paths for industrial upgrading and urban development through scene innovation [1] - The conference aimed to implement the State Council's opinions on accelerating scene cultivation and large-scale application [1] Group 1: Conference Objectives and Participants - The conference was co-hosted by the Nanjing Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology and Great Wall Strategic Consulting, with around 350 representatives from various sectors including government, state-owned enterprises, universities, think tanks, financial institutions, and unicorn companies [1] - The event emphasized the importance of cross-field, cross-regional, and cross-departmental collaborative innovation to enhance Nanjing's position as a leading city for scene openness [1] Group 2: Research Reports and Action Plans - Great Wall Strategic Consulting released the "China Scene Cultivation and Open Research Report 2025," which outlines seven paths for scene cultivation and focuses on five key industries: manufacturing, transportation, healthcare, education, and elderly care [2] - The Nanjing Municipal Industry Strong City Office published the "Action Plan for Promoting Large-Scale Application of New Scenes (2026-2028)," aiming to create 10 major comprehensive scenes and 100 integrated scenes across various sectors by the end of 2028 [2] Group 3: Scene Service Platform and Opportunities - The conference marked the official launch of the "Nanjing Scene Service Platform," which aims to provide comprehensive services for scene verification, project implementation, and resource optimization [3] - Over 100 high-value scene opportunities were opened, releasing nearly 200 specific cooperation demands, signaling Nanjing's commitment to driving industrial innovation through scene-based approaches [3] Group 4: Case Studies and Future Directions - Case studies were presented by Nanjing New Industry Group and Nanjing Steel Group, showcasing their contributions to scene innovation and the integration of technology [4] - The conference highlighted Nanjing's determination to accelerate scene innovation and contribute to high-quality economic and social development through collaborative efforts and resource integration [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hongli Low Volatility ETF (512890) has shown strong performance and investor interest, with significant net inflows and a solid historical return since its inception in December 2018 [1][5][12]. Fund Performance - The Hongli Low Volatility ETF (512890) recorded a price of 1.176 CNY, reflecting a 0.43% increase, with a trading volume of 2.66 billion CNY, making it the top performer among similar ETFs [3][6]. - Since its establishment, the fund has achieved a return of 133.84%, significantly outperforming its benchmark and ranking 77th among 502 products [12]. Fund Inflows - The fund has attracted substantial capital, with net inflows of 7.9 billion CNY over the last 5 trading days, 4.7 billion CNY over the last 20 days, and 53 billion CNY over the last 60 days, indicating strong investor confidence [1][8]. Holdings Performance - The top ten holdings of the Hongli Low Volatility ETF exhibited mixed performance, with notable movements including a 2.03% increase in Nanjing Bank and a 1.46% decrease in COFCO Sugar [4][10]. Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is promoting long-term capital investment strategies and enhancing market stability, which supports the growth of equity public funds and index investment [11]. - The new "National Nine Articles" policy clarifies requirements for listed companies regarding market capitalization management and dividend distribution, further supporting the low volatility dividend strategy [11].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the performance of the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index and the related ETF, indicating a positive trend in the market driven by government policies and stable coal supply and demand dynamics. Group 1: Index Performance - As of December 18, 2025, the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index increased by 0.65%, with notable gains from stocks such as Yanzhou Coal Mining (up 2.65%) and Shandong Publishing (up 2.41%) [1] - The National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) rose by 0.53% during the same period [1] Group 2: Trading and Liquidity - The average daily trading volume of the National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF reached 3.136 million yuan over the past week [1] - The ETF's scale grew by 2.7392 million yuan over the last two weeks, indicating significant growth [1] - The number of shares for the ETF increased by 3.6 million shares in the same timeframe [1] Group 3: Coal Market Dynamics - The national coal policy for 2025 focuses on supply assurance and quality improvement, with measures to enhance supply resilience and promote technological upgrades in coal and power sectors [1][2] - Domestic coal production growth is expected to slow, with a projected 10% decrease in imports due to policy and cost factors [2] - The demand for electricity is anticipated to remain stable, with a 7.3% year-on-year increase in power generation in October [2] Group 4: Investment Insights - According to a report by招商证券, the combination of supply assurance and price stability, along with controlled production and quality improvements, is expected to support a stable coal market [2] - The investment focus for the sector can be considered from both dividend and cyclical perspectives [2] - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index tracks 100 listed companies with high and stable cash dividend yields, reflecting the overall performance of high-dividend securities in state-owned enterprises [2]

证券时报记者 杨霞 在ESG理念深度融入全球商业版图的当下，上市公司正以创新实践，积极探寻可持续发展的新路径。近日，由证 券时报主办，五粮液、中泰证券协办的"第十九届上市公司价值论坛暨2025新质生产力巡礼宜宾行"在四川省宜宾 市举办，会上公布了"2025上市公司ESG百强"公司，表彰在ESG实践方面主动作为、成效突出的上市公司。本文对 百强公司在ESG实践方面的特点进行全面梳理和分析，旨在引导和推动更多上市公司贯彻落实新发展理念，践行 高质量发展。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 信披质量稳步提升 随着"双碳"目标的深入推进，衡量企业长期价值的标尺正发生深刻变革。ESG实践已从"附加题"跃升为上市公司 的"核心必答题"，深刻重塑着价值的底层逻辑。 ESG百强企业作为实践中的佼佼者，在多个维度展现出卓越表现。78家公司设立了ESG专项工作组，另有76家公司 披露了ESG管理工作。ESG管理的最高层级由董事长或董事会牵头，能够确保ESG战略更加顺利地执行，百强公司 中72家公司的最高层级为董事会，体现了百强公司对ESG治理工作的高度重视。 ESG委员会与工作小组的设立，是实现战略统筹与执行落地 ...