国泰海通晨报 2026 年 01 月 13 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【纺织服装研究】纺织服装业：Nike 与 Adidas 作为全球运动服饰领域的两大龙头，其战略方 向与业绩波动是 A+H 纺服板块投资最重要的风向标之一，二者不仅定义了行业景气度，更通过 深度的产业链绑定，直接决定了核心标的的估值逻辑与业绩弹性：1. 制造端（Alpha 来源）： 头 部代工龙头品牌集中度较高，Nike 与 Adidas 多合计贡献超过 30%，巨头的订单分配策略直接决 定了供应商的产能利用率与业绩波动。 2. 零售端（格局重塑）： 二者在大中华区的品牌势能起 伏，直接重塑了国内运动品牌的竞争格局与市占率空间，是判断运动行业发展驱动力的重要基础。 3. 渠道端（深度绑定）： 核心大中华区零售商（如滔搏、宝胜）与双雄利益深度捆绑，品牌方的 库存周期与折扣策略直接主导了渠道商的盈利水平。本报告旨在深度复盘近 5 年两大巨头在经历 疫情冲击、新疆棉事件、管理层更迭及关税博弈后的基本面修复路径，通过对比二者的战略得失， 预判未来行业格局的演变趋势及其对核心供应链、渠道商的传导影响。 [ ...

1月13日金融一线消息，重庆金融监管局关于刘小军重庆农村商业银行股份有限公司董事、董事长任职 资格的批复，核准刘小军重庆农村商业银行股份有限公司董事、董事长的任职资格。 简历显示，刘小军，汉族，1976年12月生，中共党员，研究生学历，经济学硕士，经济师，现任重庆农 村商业银行股份有限公司党委书记。曾任中国建设银行国际业务部业务副经理、房地产金融业务部业务 经理，中信信托投资有限责任公司（后更名为中信信托有限责任公司）信托业务二部高级经理、副总经 理及总经理，中信信托有限责任公司信托业务八部（筹）副总经理（主持工作），中信信托有限责任公 司业务总监、副总经理，中国宏桥集团有限公司非执行董事，重庆发展投资有限公司党委书记、董事 长。 责任编辑：王馨茹 1月13日金融一线消息，重庆金融监管局关于刘小军重庆农村商业银行股份有限公司董事、董事长任职 资格的批复，核准刘小军重庆农村商业银行股份有限公司董事、董事长的任职资格。 简历显示，刘小军，汉族，1976年12月生，中共党员，研究生学历，经济学硕士，经济师，现任重庆农 村商业银行股份有限公司党委书记。曾任中国建设银行国际业务部业务副经理、房地产金融业务部业务 经理， ...

Core Insights - The transaction marks the largest private enterprise restructuring in A-share history, with a transaction scale of 63.518 billion yuan, and signifies the strategic return of China Hongqiao's core aluminum assets to the A-share market [1] - The newly issued shares amount to 11.895 billion, with a potential market capitalization of 361.059 billion yuan based on the closing price of 27.7 yuan per share on January 9, 2026 [1] - The addition of Hongchuang Holdings to the A-share market enhances the representation of private capital in the high-end manufacturing sector [1] Company Overview - Hongtu Industrial, the core asset injected, is a leading global player in the aluminum industry with an annual production capacity of 6.459 million tons of electrolytic aluminum and 19 million tons of alumina, projecting revenues of 149.289 billion yuan and a net profit of 18.144 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The company has notable technological and green advantages, including the world's first full series of 600kA large prebaked anode electrolytic cells and a high green electricity ratio achieved through hydropower resource transfer [2] - The transaction aligns with the "dual carbon" strategy and supports the construction of a green aluminum industry cluster, demonstrating the company's commitment to social responsibility through industrial poverty alleviation [2] Strategic Implications - The listing allows Hongchuang Holdings to transition from a single aluminum deep processing focus to a full industry chain layout, significantly improving asset scale and sustainable operational capacity [3] - For China Hongqiao, the completion of core asset integration creates a dual-platform development model (Hong Kong and A-share), enhancing overall competitiveness and allowing A-share investors to benefit from growth dividends [3] - The company aims to leverage its full industry chain advantages to promote green development and high-end transformation, strengthening its position as a global leader in the aluminum industry and enhancing China's influence in global aluminum standards and resource allocation [3]

Summary of the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The electrolytic aluminum industry is facing a production capacity ceiling, with China's capacity capped at 45.4 million tons, expected to reach this limit by 2027. [1] - New production capacity overseas is constrained by power supply issues, making rapid increases in output unlikely in the short term. [1] - Global electrolytic aluminum production is projected to increase by approximately 1.3 million tons in 2026, with a supply growth rate of about 1.7%. [1][7] - Demand is expected to grow at around 2%, benefiting from loose monetary policies. [1] Key Insights and Arguments - The supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight and may lead to shortages, with aluminum prices potentially rising significantly, averaging around 25,000 RMB/ton. [1][8] - The EPS growth for electrolytic aluminum companies is supported by stable raw material prices, with industry valuations likely to rise from 8-10 times to 12-15 times. [1][9] - Systematic investment opportunities exist in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with recommendations for specific stocks such as Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., and Zhongfu Industrial. [1][10] Supply Side Changes - The electrolytic aluminum supply side is facing its first historical capacity ceiling, with production nearing the 45.4 million tons limit established in 2017. [3] - New production capacity in 2026 is expected to be around 500,000 to 600,000 tons, with the likelihood of reaching the ceiling by 2027. [3] - Global new projects are primarily set to release production in the second half of the year, requiring a ramp-up period. [3][6] Overseas Project Developments - Key overseas projects include Adaro and Lichin in Indonesia, and projects by Xinfa and Nanshan Group, with varying completion timelines. [4][5] - The Adaro and Lichin project plans for 1.5 million tons in three phases, while Xinfa's small K Island project is expected to be completed in Q2 this year. [4][5] Demand Projections - Global electrolytic aluminum demand is projected to grow at around 2% in 2026, with domestic demand growth expected between 2.2% and 2.3%, and overseas demand at approximately 1.5%. [7] - The overall demand growth is supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions, including fiscal and monetary policy easing in major economies. [7] Price Impact and Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a tight balance leading to potential price surges, with aluminum prices anticipated to exceed 25,000 RMB/ton. [8] - The fragile supply-demand balance means that any supply disruptions or unexpected demand increases could trigger explosive price increases. [8] Investment Strategy - The electrolytic aluminum sector presents systematic investment opportunities, with a focus on both pure-play and flexible stocks. [9][10] - Recommended stocks include Tianshan Aluminum for its significant production growth, along with Nanshan Innovation, Hongchuang Holdings, and China Hongqiao. [10]

Group 1 - The average domestic aluminum price in China reached 21,407 yuan/ton in Q4 2025, a 3.4% increase from Q3, contributing to an annual average of 20,646 yuan/ton, which is a 1.0% increase compared to the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - On January 5, 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum price hit 23,300 yuan/ton, marking the highest level since March 2022 [1] - The Shandong Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan aiming for a 5% year-on-year growth in the added value of the non-ferrous metal industry by 2026, with aluminum industry revenue exceeding 660 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities anticipates that the profit center for electrolytic aluminum will further increase in the first half of 2026, despite recent price surges leading to cautious purchasing behavior in the downstream industry [1][2] - The current weak purchasing sentiment in the downstream sector is seen as normal under high price conditions, but it may lead to low raw material inventories, which could support aluminum prices if the long-term supply-demand balance remains tight [2] - The upcoming "golden three silver four" peak demand season is expected to positively influence prices, suggesting that weaker current buying intentions may benefit future aluminum price and profit center increases [2] Group 3 - China Hongqiao (01378) is a leading global aluminum producer with a strong cost advantage due to high self-sufficiency in bauxite, power, and alumina, with projected net profits of 24.803 billion yuan, 25.81 billion yuan, and 27.96 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [3] - Innovation Industry (02788) is expanding its electrolytic aluminum capacity in Saudi Arabia, with a 33.6% stake in a comprehensive project, benefiting from integrated energy and alumina production [3] - Nanshan Aluminum (600219) is planning a 1 million ton/year electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia, supported by an existing alumina plant, which provides raw material security and cost advantages [4]

Group 1: Aluminum Price Trends - The average domestic aluminum price in China reached 21,407 yuan/ton in Q4 2025, a 3.4% increase from Q3, contributing to an annual average price of 20,646 yuan/ton, up 1.0% compared to the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - On January 5, 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum price hit 23,300 yuan/ton, the highest level since March 2022 [1] - Institutions predict a tight balance in global aluminum supply and demand over the next two years due to supply constraints from power issues and surging energy storage demand [1] Group 2: Industry Growth Plans - The Shandong Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan aiming for a 5% year-on-year growth in the added value of the non-ferrous metal industry by 2026, with aluminum industry revenue exceeding 660 billion yuan and over 35% of electrolytic aluminum capacity meeting benchmark energy efficiency standards [1] - Huatai Securities anticipates that the profit center for electrolytic aluminum will further increase in the first half of 2026, despite recent price surges leading to cautious purchasing behavior in the downstream industry [1][2] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - China Hongqiao (01378) is a leading global aluminum producer with a strong profit moat due to its integrated supply chain, expecting net profits of 24.803 billion yuan, 25.81 billion yuan, and 27.96 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 10.9%, 4.1%, and 8.3% respectively [3] - Innovation Industry (02788) is expanding its electrolytic aluminum capacity in Saudi Arabia, with a focus on energy-efficient production, which is expected to lower costs further as green electricity is integrated [3] - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) is developing a 1 million ton/year electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia, with the first phase planned for 250,000 tons/year, backed by an existing alumina plant in the same industrial park [4] - China Aluminum (02600) holds approximately 2.7 billion tons of bauxite resources, with potential for revaluation under the "China Special Valuation" system, and is positioned to benefit from rising aluminum prices due to its integrated supply chain [4]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's preference order for the materials sector in 2026 is copper/gold > aluminum > lithium > coal > steel [1] - The MSCI China Materials Index is expected to outperform the MSCI China Index this year due to supply disruptions or tight supply and further M&A activities [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) remains Morgan Stanley's top pick for the year, with continued optimism for Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), China Aluminum (02600), and China Hongqiao (01378) [1] Group 2 - Jiangxi Copper (00358) has been upgraded to neutral based on a positive outlook for copper [1] - Chinese policies are still the main driver of commodity prices, but the execution and intensity of anti-involution policies are expected to be milder than anticipated starting from Q4 2025 [1] - Steel profit margins are expected to remain low without significant production cuts, leading to a downgrade of Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019.SH) to neutral and Ansteel (00347) to underweight [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a preference order for the materials sector in 2026: Copper/Gold > Aluminum > Lithium > Coal > Steel [1] - The MSCI China Materials Index is expected to outperform the MSCI China Index this year due to supply disruptions or tight supply and further M&A activities [1] - Zijin Mining (601899)(02899) remains Morgan Stanley's top pick for the year, with continued optimism for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)(03993), China Aluminum (601600)(02600), and China Hongqiao (01378) [1] Group 2 - Based on a positive outlook for copper, Jiangxi Copper (600362)(00358) rating is upgraded to Neutral [1] - Chinese policies are seen as the main driver of commodity prices, but the execution and intensity of anti-involution policies post-Q4 2025 are expected to be milder than anticipated [1] - The effort to reduce excess capacity in the steel sector is a long-term endeavor, and without significant production cuts, steel profit margins are expected to remain low [1] Group 3 - Baosteel (600019)(600019.SH) rating is downgraded to Neutral, while Ansteel (000898)(00347) is downgraded to Underweight [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that weak employment data in the U.S. has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting precious metals which have shown a rebound after initial pressure [1]. - The copper market is facing supply disruptions and tight inventory in non-U.S. regions, which may lead to price volatility [2]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience strong fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and improving macroeconomic sentiment [3]. - Nickel prices are anticipated to remain volatile due to policy uncertainties in Indonesia affecting supply [4]. - Tin prices are projected to experience strong fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors and funding sentiment [5]. - Lithium prices are expected to remain high due to seasonal demand despite a slight decrease in production [6]. - Cobalt prices are likely to continue rising due to tight supply conditions and delayed export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Precious metals are benefiting from liquidity easing, with a focus on companies such as Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1]. Copper - The copper market is experiencing an increase in global inventory, with concerns about supply tightness in non-U.S. regions due to disruptions in mining operations [2]. Aluminum - The aluminum sector is seeing a slight increase in production capacity, with geopolitical tensions contributing to a positive market sentiment [3]. Nickel - Nickel prices have shown significant fluctuations due to supply disruptions and policy changes in Indonesia, with a focus on companies like Huayou Cobalt and Lygend Resources [4]. Tin - Tin prices are influenced by macroeconomic expectations and demand from emerging sectors, with companies like Hunan Tin and Yunnan Tin being highlighted [5]. Lithium - Lithium prices are supported by strong demand despite seasonal production declines, with companies such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium being recommended [6]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and regulatory changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with companies like Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium being of interest [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum industry is experiencing a seasonal inventory accumulation, with adjustments in export tax rebates for photovoltaic and battery products [1] - Despite a favorable macroeconomic environment, the industry faces challenges due to declining demand and high aluminum prices, which are suppressing downstream consumption [6][11] - The report suggests that while short-term pressures exist, the long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of January 9, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $3,136.0 per ton, up $115.0 from the previous week, and the Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is ¥24,330.0 per ton, up ¥1,405.0 [15][21] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang is ¥24,060.0 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of ¥1,540.0 [21] 2. Production - In December 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum reached 3.781 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 144,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 197,000 tons [53] - The production of alumina in December 2025 was 7.520 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 80,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 181,000 tons [53] 3. Inventory - As of January 8, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was recorded at 714,000 tons, an increase of 54,000 tons week-on-week [7] - The alumina inventory at alumina plants increased by 33,000 tons, indicating a continued accumulation trend [9] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2026 [5]