Overview - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the renewable energy sector, highlighting that the demand for offshore wind power in China and Europe is increasing, leading to a rise in foundation demand and profit recovery for wind turbines. The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue driving the photovoltaic sector, particularly with the expansion of perovskite technology. Overall, while short-term installation demand for renewable energy globally may be weak, there are structural opportunities in the market [1]. Key Points Supporting the Rating - The "anti-involution" trend is stabilizing wind turbine prices, enhancing profitability for manufacturers. China's offshore wind projects are becoming economically viable, contributing significantly to installed capacity. The demand for offshore wind in Europe and emerging markets is also on the rise [3]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the "anti-involution" policy remains the main theme, with a focus on the potential for capacity exits in battery and module production, as well as the industrialization potential of perovskite technology. Investment should prioritize growth-oriented new technology directions and the main industry chain benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend [3]. Investment Recommendations - For wind power, the report suggests prioritizing investments in the turbine segment, which is expected to recover profitability, and in the foundation segment that is progressing quickly in Europe. The offshore wind market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on deep-sea projects [3]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the "anti-involution" policy's impact on the industry, particularly regarding the exit of inefficient capacity and the enhancement of efficiency in battery and module production [3]. Long-term Outlook for Renewable Energy Demand - The report indicates that China's renewable energy demand is expected to remain robust in the long term, with an average annual installation capacity of over 400GW projected from 2025 to 2035. This is driven by the country's energy security needs and the ongoing transition to a low-carbon economy [13][16]. - The "136 Document" is noted for guiding the development of renewable energy projects towards market-oriented pricing, which is expected to stabilize project returns and promote high-quality development in the sector [31]. Photovoltaic Sector Insights - The report anticipates a moderate decline in photovoltaic installations in 2026 due to a phase of pre-installation in 2025, with projected installations of 290GW in 2025 and 180GW in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 38% [33]. - The report highlights that the European photovoltaic market is facing growth challenges, with a forecasted installation of 64.2GW in 2025, indicating a slight decline. The U.S. market is also expected to experience pressure on growth due to policy adjustments [34][37]. Perovskite Technology Potential - Perovskite technology is identified as a key area for enhancing competitiveness in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector, with expectations for significant breakthroughs in industrialization by leading manufacturers in 2026 [33][44].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, characterized by two main routes: orderly exit of backward production capacity and stable continuation of new quality capacity [1][3] - Central state-owned enterprises are actively responding to the price increase of photovoltaic components, with a trend of rising bidding prices observed [2][3] - The industry is seeing a positive change in the price of components, with leading companies raising their component quotes and a strong willingness to maintain prices in the intermediate links of the supply chain [4] Group 2 - The "de-involution" strategy is a key focus for the photovoltaic industry, aiming to stabilize product prices and eliminate unhealthy competition [3] - Specific measures proposed by the government include promoting the orderly exit of backward capacity, curbing low-price competition, ensuring product quality, and supporting industry self-discipline [2][3] - Investment recommendations include companies such as Junda Co., Trina Solar, JA Solar, JinkoSolar, and LONGi Green Energy, with a focus on the potential for profit improvement in battery and component sectors [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a significant increase in silicon wafer stocks, with TCL Zhonghuan rising over 4%, and Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, Huamin Co., and Hongyuan Green Energy all increasing by over 2% [1] - Four leading silicon wafer companies have jointly raised their prices, with 183N silicon wafer priced at 1.4 yuan per piece, 210RN at 1.5 yuan per piece, and 210N at 1.7 yuan per piece, resulting in an average price increase of 12% [1] - The average transaction price for N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers increased by 2.56% week-on-week to 1.2 yuan per piece, while N-type G12R and N-type G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers saw increases of 9.17% and 1.33%, respectively [1] Group 2 - Downstream battery prices have significantly increased, with mainstream battery prices ranging from 0.31 to 0.33 yuan per watt, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 10.3%, while module prices remained stable [1] - Silicon wafer companies have shown a strong willingness to maintain prices, leading to a substantial increase in silicon wafer prices [1]

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 26 日 强于大市 光伏行业动态点评 产业链涨价成趋势，终端开始接受高价组件 光伏'反内卷'分为两条具体路线，'推动落后产能有序退出'、'新增优 质产能平稳接续'正在稳步推进中，表观层面产业链积极挺价，央国企也已 积极响应，看好高效电池组件溢价；维持行业 强于大市 评级。 支撑评级的要点 《电力设备与新能源行业 12 月第 4 周周报》 20251221 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电力设备 证券分析师：武佳雄 jiaxiong.wu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300523070001 证券分析师：顾真 投资建议 光伏'反内卷'稳步推进，'推动落后产能有序退出'、'新增优质产 能平稳接续'正在进行中，表观层面产业链积极挺价，央国企也已积极 响应，看好高效电池组件溢价。推荐钧达股份、天合光能、晶澳科技、 晶科能源、隆基绿能，建议关注通威股份、协鑫科技、大全能源、双良 节能、弘元绿能。 评级面临的主要风险 原材料价格出现不利波动；国际贸易摩擦风险；新技术进展不达预期； 新能源政策风险；消纳风险 ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.09% and the ChiNext Index up 0.11% [1] - The lithium carbonate futures broke through the 130,000 yuan per ton mark, with a daily increase of 8% [2][11] - The commercial aerospace and precious metals sectors remained active, while the CPO concept saw significant declines [1] Sector Performance - The lithium battery sector continued to strengthen, with companies like Fengyuan Co. and Tianji Co. hitting the daily limit [5] - The photovoltaic sector saw initial gains, with Yijing Optoelectronics hitting the daily limit and Jun Da shares rising over 8% [2] - The commercial aerospace concept maintained strong momentum, with Shenjian Co. achieving seven consecutive trading limit increases [3] Futures Market - The domestic commodity futures market opened mostly higher, with international copper up 2.89% and fuel up 1.50% [2] - Precious metals futures saw collective increases, with platinum futures hitting the daily limit and palladium rising over 9% [2][11] - Government bond futures opened with mixed results, with the 30-year main contract down 0.01% and the 5-year contract up 0.02% [4][5] Currency Exchange - The RMB against the USD middle rate was adjusted up by 34 points to 7.0358, marking a new high since September 30, 2024 [9]

Core Insights - The year 2025 marks a pivotal point for China's photovoltaic (PV) industry, transitioning from chaotic competition to rational collaboration, as stated by Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association [2] - The fixed electricity price era has ended, leading to a new market-oriented phase for the PV sector, with significant changes in pricing and production dynamics [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of polysilicon has rebounded, with futures prices soaring from over 30,000 yuan/ton to above 60,000 yuan/ton, nearly doubling [3] - Major upstream companies like Daqo Energy and Tongwei have reported profitability in Q3, indicating a recovery in the industry [3] - The profitability of 31 key companies in the PV main industry chain has improved, with Q3 losses narrowing to 64.22 billion yuan, a reduction of approximately 46.7% from Q2 [4] Group 2: Sector Challenges - Despite improvements, the industry still faces supply-demand imbalances, particularly in the equipment sector, where many leading companies reported declines in revenue and net profit [5] - The inverter sector shows a mixed performance, with some companies experiencing profit growth while others face declining profits [5] - The auxiliary materials sector is under pressure, with leading companies in quartz crucibles and glass reporting significant losses [5] Group 3: Industry Restructuring - The PV industry is witnessing a dual trend of cross-industry expansion and exits, with companies like Longi Green Energy entering the energy storage market [6] - Several companies have exited the PV sector through asset sales and project terminations, indicating a consolidation trend [6] - The restructuring signals are strengthening, with companies like Jingang Photovoltaic undergoing reorganization to focus on specific technologies [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The competition in PV technology is entering a new phase, with BC technology products rapidly gaining market share, potentially reaching 100GW in production by next year [8] - The price of silicon is expected to regain its central role in the industry, with a projected recovery in silicon prices linked to upstream polysilicon prices [9] - The demand for auxiliary materials is anticipated to weaken further, but supportive policies may help stabilize the market [10]

Core Insights - The report highlights a price increase announced by a leading carbon fiber company, indicating a potential recovery in the industry's bottom line and overall market conditions [4][5] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the label printing sector, particularly for Jiangtian Technology, which specializes in high-quality label printing services [6][7] Industry Summary Chemical Raw Materials - The new materials sector experienced a slight decline, with the new materials index down by 0.23%, although it outperformed the ChiNext index by 2.03% [4] - Key price movements in the amino acids and biodegradable materials were noted, with valine increasing by 4.98% to 13,700 CNY/ton, while other prices remained stable [4] Carbon Fiber Industry - The carbon fiber market is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in demand expected, particularly in wind power and aerospace applications. The actual consumption of carbon fiber in China is projected to reach 96,446 tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 71.89% [5] - Major companies like Toray and Jilin Chemical Fiber have announced price hikes for their carbon fiber products, indicating a strengthening market position for high-performance carbon fiber suppliers [5] Label Printing Sector - Jiangtian Technology is positioned as a leading service provider in the label printing industry, with a focus on non-dry adhesive labels used in various consumer sectors. The company has established stable partnerships with major brands like Unilever and Procter & Gamble [6] - The label printing market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 10.44% from 2023 to 2031, driven by rising disposable incomes and consumption upgrades [6][7] Solar Industry - The report notes stable pricing for polysilicon and an increase in silicon wafer prices, with the average price for 130um N-type silicon wafers rising by 5.9% to 1.25 CNY/piece [8] - Battery cell prices have also increased, with N-type battery cells seeing a 13.3% rise to 0.34 CNY/W, reflecting a tightening supply and increased production costs [9]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. [3][7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company is positioned to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies that are expected to restore profitability. It forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be -6.098 billion, 2.883 billion, and 5.963 billion yuan respectively, with a target market value of 112.7 billion yuan for 2026 [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 91.994 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 33.9%. The revenue is expected to recover to 106.471 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 17.1% [2]. - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.039 billion yuan in 2024, improving to 2.883 billion yuan in 2026, representing a significant turnaround [2]. - Earnings per share are expected to be -1.58 yuan in 2024, improving to 0.64 yuan in 2026 [2]. - The gross margin is projected to recover from 6.4% in 2024 to 10.7% in 2026 [2]. Company Overview - Tongwei Co., Ltd. has evolved from a feed production company to a leading player in the photovoltaic industry, establishing a comprehensive supply chain from silicon materials to solar cells and components [6][15]. - The company has a dual business model focusing on "green agriculture and clean energy," making it a global leader in high-purity silicon and solar cell manufacturing [6][15]. Industry Context - The report notes that the photovoltaic industry is undergoing a significant transformation due to new regulations aimed at curbing price wars and ensuring fair competition, which is expected to stabilize prices and improve profitability [6][8]. - The company is well-positioned to leverage its technological advancements and cost control capabilities, which are among the best in the industry [6][8]. Key Assumptions - The report outlines key assumptions for the company's multi-crystalline silicon business, projecting shipment volumes of 350,000, 400,000, and 450,000 tons for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with prices recovering to 47,000, 65,000, and 80,000 yuan per ton [8]. - For the solar cell and module business, stable shipment volumes of 80 GW are expected for 2025-2027, with prices gradually increasing [8]. Management and Governance - The management team is described as experienced and well-structured, with a strong focus on both the photovoltaic and agricultural sectors, providing a solid foundation for the company's strategic development [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain is expected to gradually bottom out and improve by the second half of 2025, aided by anti-involution measures, although financial improvements may slow market clearing, making the continuation of anti-involution essential [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The photovoltaic demand is anticipated to recover in the latter half of the 14th Five-Year Plan due to enhanced energy storage capacity and the need for market-oriented adjustments in the domestic electricity market [1] - The global energy transition is driving strong demand for energy storage, with a projected growth rate of nearly 50% for new installations in 2026, fueled by domestic policies and decreasing costs [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A decline in domestic installations is expected to lead to profit differentiation among glass glue film companies, with those having overseas clients likely to increase export ratios and profit margins [3] - The high silver prices are promoting the industrialization of silver-copper paste, while auxiliary material companies are actively seeking second growth curves in sectors like semiconductors and storage [3] Group 3: Valuation and Recommendations - Current valuations for major companies in the main industry chain are at historical low levels of 1xP/B to 2.5xP/B, with potential for performance recovery and sector opportunities as demand improves in 2Q26 [4] - Recommended stocks include: 1) Quality large-scale storage and industrial storage companies such as Canadian Solar (688472.SH), Shangneng Electric (300827.SZ), and others [4] 2) High-power module manufacturers like JinkoSolar (688223.SH) and Aiko Solar (600732.SH) [4] 3) Silicon material companies such as GCL-Poly Energy (03800) and Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) [4] 4) Optimized players like Xinyi Solar (00968) and Flat Glass Group (601865.SH) [4] 5) Companies with new product launches like Dike Co., Ltd. (300842.SZ) and Juhe Materials (688503.SH) [4]

2025 年 12 月 24 日 黄金、白银、铂、钯、铜期货将创下上市以来新高 铂、 钯、白银、镍、碳酸锂期货将震荡偏强 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期 2025 年 12 月 23 日期货主力合约行 情走势大概率如下： | 期 | 货 | 主力合 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | 支撑位 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | | 约 | | | | | | 股指 | | IF2603 | 偏弱震荡 | 4583 和 4605 点 | 4 ...