Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to show strong upward momentum, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876), reaching a new historical high, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1][10]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector saw significant gains, with Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876) increasing by over 2.4% during trading, currently up by 1.9% [1][10]. - The ETF has attracted substantial capital inflow, with a net subscription of 40.2 million units reported, totaling 387 million yuan over the past 10 days [1][10]. Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator has shown a golden cross, with the fast line (DIF) consistently above the slow line (DEA), signaling a continuation of the bullish trend and indicating that the upward momentum has not shown signs of weakening [1][10]. Stock Performance - Leading stocks in the sector include Hunan Silver, which rose over 6%, and several others like Huaxi Non-ferrous, Tin Industry Co., and Western Mining, which increased by more than 5% [3][14]. - Key weighted stocks such as Northern Rare Earth and Zijin Mining also showed positive performance, with increases of over 2% and 1% respectively [3][14]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with the core CPI rising by 2.6%, leading to increased expectations for an earlier interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5][12]. - Following the CPI data release, the probability of a rate cut in April rose to 42%, up from 38% prior to the announcement [5][12]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Fed's potential rate cuts could lead to a bullish environment for non-ferrous metals, as lower interest rates may increase demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [5][12][6]. - The current tightening supply and demand dynamics in physical assets during the Fed's easing cycle could result in significant price elasticity for metals like copper and aluminum, indicating the onset of a super cycle in industrial metals [6][12]. ETF Coverage - Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to various market cycles [7][13].

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced significant gains, with the China Nonferrous Metals Index rising by 2.05% as of the report date, and several stocks, including Hunan Silver and Xiyang Co., seeing increases of over 7% [1] - The Nonferrous Metals ETF (159871.SZ) opened higher, increasing by 1.84% during the session, with a trading volume exceeding 60 million yuan and a real-time premium rate of 0.09% [1] - The ETF has seen net inflows for 4 out of the last 5 trading days, accumulating nearly 150 million yuan, with a latest circulation size of 640 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The tungsten market has experienced a "violent" surge in January, with tungsten powder prices exceeding 1.1 million yuan per ton and tungsten concentrate reaching 464,000 yuan per standard ton, both hitting historical highs [1] - The main contract for Shanghai tin futures surged by 7%, reaching a new historical peak [1] - Guosheng Securities predicts that by 2026, the non-ferrous metals industry will face increasing supply-demand mismatches and a rising price center [2] - CITIC Securities anticipates that non-ferrous metals will continue to perform strongly, with gold being a core safe-haven asset under the "de-dollarization" pricing logic, and copper and aluminum benefiting from energy transition and supply constraints [2]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002149 | 西部材料 | 46.45 | -10.00% | 68.48万 | 32.32 Z | | 920068 | 天工股份 | 19.95 | -9.15% | 12.02万 | 2.47亿 | | 002428 | 云南错业 | 37.83 | -7.73% | 100.39万 | 38.46 Z | | 600456 | 宝钛股份 | 38.48 | -6.83% | - 37.96万 | 14.81亿 | | 688750 | 金天钛业 | 20.36 | -4.41% | 13.48万 | 2.79亿 | | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 50.81 | -3.18% | 151.81万 | 77.94亿 | | 002167 | 东方错业 | 13.08 | -2.97% | 51.58万 | 6.80亿 | | 000962 | 东方银业 | 38.05 | -2.74% | 30.73万 | 11.67亿 | | 00 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on January 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4163.84 points, down 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.31%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.83% [2] - A total of 2427 stocks rose while 2862 stocks fell, indicating a mixed market sentiment [4] Sector Performance - The healthcare services, lithium mining, precious metals, and insurance sectors showed notable gains, while sectors such as commercial aerospace, communication equipment, and shipbuilding faced declines [4] - The healthcare services sector rose by 6.61%, lithium mining by 4.86%, and precious metals by 3.91% [5] Lithium Mining Sector - Lithium mining stocks surged, with major players like Tibet Summit hitting the daily limit, and companies such as Salt Lake Industry and Ganfeng Lithium rising over 7% [13] - The price of lithium carbonate futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassed 170,000 yuan per ton, marking a rise of over 9% and reaching a new high since October 2023 [7] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector showed resilience, with China Life Insurance rising over 3% to a market value of 1,279.4 billion yuan, and Ping An Insurance increasing over 2% to a market value of 1,203.4 billion yuan [10][12] - A report from Guojin Securities predicts that new insurance premiums for listed companies will achieve double-digit growth by 2026, driven by the bancassurance channel and increased market share of large insurers [15] AI Healthcare Sector - AI healthcare stocks experienced significant activity, with companies like Di'an Diagnostics and Nossger hitting the daily limit, and others like Meien Health and International Medicine also seeing substantial gains [16] - Nvidia announced a joint investment of $1 billion with Eli Lilly to establish an AI drug laboratory, aiming to accelerate medical discoveries [18] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector saw a rise, with spot gold prices reaching a record high of $4630.28 per ounce [20] - Stocks such as Hunan Silver and Xiaocheng Technology rose over 8%, while other companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold also experienced gains [21]

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of propylene are gradually tightening, and the price continues to be strong. The supply pressure of the propylene market is expected to be alleviated stage - by - stage due to the planned maintenance of PDH and MTO units. The downstream demand has a rigid support, and the cost - side support has rebounded. With the marginal improvement of supply and demand and emotional boost, the propylene price continues to be strongly sorted. It is recommended to cautiously go long on a hedging basis, waiting for the implementation of marginal unit maintenance [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure part involves figures such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the Shandong basis of propylene, the spread between the 03 - 04 contracts of propylene, the spread between the PL03 - 05 contracts, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China [3][4][5] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - This part includes figures on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene production capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH production capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins production capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery production capacity utilization rate, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [3][4][19] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It covers figures related to the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [3][4][37] 4. Propylene Inventory - This section involves figures on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [3][4][60]

国泰海通晨报 2026 年 01 月 13 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【纺织服装研究】纺织服装业：Nike 与 Adidas 作为全球运动服饰领域的两大龙头，其战略方 向与业绩波动是 A+H 纺服板块投资最重要的风向标之一，二者不仅定义了行业景气度，更通过 深度的产业链绑定，直接决定了核心标的的估值逻辑与业绩弹性：1. 制造端（Alpha 来源）： 头 部代工龙头品牌集中度较高，Nike 与 Adidas 多合计贡献超过 30%，巨头的订单分配策略直接决 定了供应商的产能利用率与业绩波动。 2. 零售端（格局重塑）： 二者在大中华区的品牌势能起 伏，直接重塑了国内运动品牌的竞争格局与市占率空间，是判断运动行业发展驱动力的重要基础。 3. 渠道端（深度绑定）： 核心大中华区零售商（如滔搏、宝胜）与双雄利益深度捆绑，品牌方的 库存周期与折扣策略直接主导了渠道商的盈利水平。本报告旨在深度复盘近 5 年两大巨头在经历 疫情冲击、新疆棉事件、管理层更迭及关税博弈后的基本面修复路径，通过对比二者的战略得失， 预判未来行业格局的演变趋势及其对核心供应链、渠道商的传导影响。 [ ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold price reached $4493.85 per ounce, up $140.90 from January 2, with a growth rate of 3.24% [2][3] - Silver price was $78.14 per ounce, increasing by $3.93 from January 2, reflecting a growth rate of 5.29% [2][3] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for December showed an increase of 50,000 jobs, below the expected 65,000, indicating a potential upward trend for precious metals [3] Group 2: Copper and Aluminum - LME copper closed at $12,990 per ton, up $480 from January 2, with a growth rate of 3.84% [4] - Domestic aluminum price was 24,060 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,540 yuan from December 31 [6] - High prices are suppressing short-term demand for copper and aluminum, with copper production facing supply disruptions [5][6] Group 3: Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin price was 350,700 yuan per ton, up 24,610 yuan from December 31, with a growth rate of 7.55% [7] - Antimony price was 158,000 yuan per ton, down 3,000 yuan from December 31, indicating weak demand [8] Group 4: Industry Ratings and Investment Strategy - The gold industry is rated "recommended" due to the Fed's easing cycle [9] - The copper industry is also rated "recommended" as copper supply remains tight [10] - The aluminum industry maintains a "recommended" rating due to rigid supply [11]

Group 1: Key Insights on Tin Market - Tin prices broke through 350,000 yuan per ton this week but retreated due to tightening market sentiment ahead of the U.S. non-farm employment data, leading to profit-taking by some investors [1][3] - Domestic social inventory saw a significant decrease of 12.61% week-on-week, primarily due to slow recovery in tin ore supply and uncertainties in production from major producing countries, indicating a persistent tight raw material situation [1][3] - Demand for tin is expected to remain strong, driven by high capital expenditure in AI, with a positive outlook for tin prices in the future [1][3] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a buy on copper equities during dips, as the market anticipates a tightening supply-demand situation in 2026 due to expected production cuts from Freeport and Teck Resources [2] - For aluminum, the recommendation is to buy on dips, as strong macro policy expectations and geopolitical risks provide support despite current consumption pressures and rising social inventories [3] - Lithium prices continue to rise, with a recommendation to buy on dips, as supply constraints are expected due to new government policies limiting domestic production [4] Group 3: Investment Suggestions - Companies to watch include Xingye Silver Tin, Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, New Jinlu, Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Zhongkuang Resources, Shengda Resources, Chifeng Gold, Zijin Gold International, Zhaojin Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [5]

Core Viewpoint - The global tin market is experiencing structural shortages, with supply heavily reliant on a few resource-rich countries. In 2024, global tin production is projected to be 300,000 tons, a decrease of 1.63% year-on-year, with Myanmar, Indonesia, and China accounting for 51% of this production. Limited new capacity is expected due to declining ore grades and mining policies. On the demand side, global tin demand is expected to reach 385,200 tons in 2024, an increase of 3.33% year-on-year, with electronic soldering accounting for 154,100 tons, or 40.01% of total demand [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply is concentrated and incremental growth is limited, while demand remains robust. The structural shortage in the global tin market is driven by weak supply and strong demand. Since early 2025, Myanmar's mining operations have been suspended longer than expected, leading to a forced reduction in smelter operating rates. Additionally, conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo have halted tin concentrate production, affecting approximately 6% of global tin supply, exacerbating material shortages. On the demand side, the expansion of tin solder demand from AI servers and photovoltaics continues to tighten the supply-demand balance, driving tin prices upward [2]. Related Companies - Xiyang Co., Ltd. (000960): Positioned in the tin-rich region of Yunnan, it has established an integrated tin industry chain and ranks first globally in tin production and sales [2]. - Xingye Silver Tin (000426): Both silver and tin production are increasing, with its subsidiary, Yinman Mining, being the second-largest producer of tin concentrate in China, and ongoing acquisitions of overseas tin resources [2]. - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals (600301): Engaged in both tin and antimony, the company benefits from the integration of mining rights and industrial clustering in Guangxi, serving as a platform for state-owned nonferrous metals [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the tin industry, driven by strong demand and limited supply, suggesting a favorable investment environment [2][3]. Core Insights - The global tin market is experiencing structural tightness, with supply heavily reliant on a few resource-rich countries. In 2024, global tin production is projected to be 300,000 tons, a decrease of 1.63% year-on-year, while demand is expected to reach 385,200 tons, an increase of 3.33% year-on-year [5][15]. - Tin prices are expected to rise due to weak supply and strong demand. The prolonged suspension of mining operations in Myanmar and conflicts affecting supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo have exacerbated material shortages, driving prices upward [5][22]. - Key companies in the tin sector include: - **Yunnan Tin Company**: Leading in tin production and sales globally, with a comprehensive integrated supply chain [33]. - **Xingye Silver Tin**: Notable for its silver and tin production, with ongoing acquisitions of overseas tin resources [36]. - **Hua Tin Nonferrous Metals**: A state-owned platform benefiting from regional resource consolidation and industrial clustering [39]. Summary by Sections 1. Tin Industry Overview - Tin is a crucial metal in electronic soldering, characterized by its stability and resistance to oxidation, making it suitable for various applications [8]. - The global tin supply is concentrated, with the top four countries (Indonesia, China, Myanmar, and Australia) accounting for over 60% of reserves [14]. 2. Tin Price Trends - Tin prices are influenced by supply constraints and high demand, particularly from the electronics and renewable energy sectors. The report anticipates that if new production capacity remains limited, tin prices will likely stay elevated [22][24]. 3. Related Companies - **Yunnan Tin Company**: Achieved a market share of 25.03% globally in 2024, focusing on high-value products and sustainable practices [33]. - **Xingye Silver Tin**: Reported significant revenue growth, with a strong focus on resource acquisition and production expansion [36]. - **Hua Tin Nonferrous Metals**: Leveraging its integrated operations to enhance resource recovery and sustainability [39].