12月25日下午，省委书记林武，省委副书记、省长周乃翔在山东大厦会见了中建集团党组书记、董 事长郑学选，中建集团党组副书记、总经理文兵一行。林武、郑学选分别介绍了山东省、中建集团发展 情况，围绕加强"十五五"时期项目谋划、加快交通等基础设施建设、推进城市更新、推动"好房子"建设 等交换意见，表示将加强交流对接，深化投资合作，加快在建项目进度，共同谋划实施更多精品工程， 共享发展机遇，不断谱写共赢合作新篇章。副省长温暖参加。（记者 于新悦 李子路） ...

Core Insights - Central enterprises are expected to enhance their roles in serving the national economic development and improving people's livelihoods, contributing significantly to China's modernization efforts [1] Group 1: Strengthening Scale and Capability - Central enterprises have seen their total assets exceed 90 trillion yuan, with significant advancements in various projects such as the world's first commercial supercritical carbon dioxide power generation unit and the largest green hydrogen-ammonia integrated project [2] - The focus on quality improvement and value creation has led to a stable economic performance, with R&D expenditures surpassing 5 trillion yuan and investments in emerging industries growing at an annual rate of over 20% [2] - The number of technology talents has increased by nearly 50%, enhancing the scale, value creation capability, and brand influence of central enterprises [2] Group 2: Industrial Upgrading and Innovation - Central enterprises are actively promoting industrial innovation through technological advancements, with 438 technology breakthroughs reported this year [3] - Key projects such as the "Deep Sea No. 1" phase II and "Guohe No. 1" demonstration project have improved the self-sufficiency of the industrial chain [3] - The implementation of AI technologies has led to over 800 application scenarios and the establishment of 1,854 smart factories, driving digital transformation [3] Group 3: Strategic Function and Governance - The year marks the completion of major reforms in state-owned enterprises, with nine new central enterprises established to enhance strategic functions [4] - The restructuring efforts have led to the establishment of a mobile phone safety recycling system and the recycling of retired photovoltaic components [4] - Governance has become more standardized and efficient, with management levels controlled within four tiers and improved procurement transparency [5]

Core Insights - Central enterprises are expected to enhance their roles in serving the national economic development and improving people's livelihoods, contributing significantly to China's modernization efforts [1] Group 1: Strengthening Scale and Capability - Central enterprises have seen their total assets exceed 90 trillion yuan, with significant advancements in various projects such as the world's first commercial supercritical carbon dioxide power generation unit and the largest green hydrogen-ammonia integrated project [2] - The total R&D expenditure of central enterprises has surpassed 5 trillion yuan, with an annual investment growth rate in emerging industries exceeding 20% [2] - The number of technology talents in central enterprises has increased by nearly 50%, enhancing their scale, value creation capabilities, and brand influence [2] Group 2: Industrial Upgrading and Innovation - Central enterprises are focusing on technological innovation to empower industrial transformation, with 438 technology breakthroughs achieved this year [3] - The implementation of AI technology has led to over 800 application scenarios, and 1,854 smart factories have been established as part of the digital transformation efforts [3] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, energy consumption per unit of output and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of output have decreased by 12.8% and 13.9%, respectively [3] Group 3: Strategic Function and Governance - Nine new central enterprises have been established as part of the ongoing reform of state-owned enterprises, with a focus on optimizing the structure and enhancing strategic functions [4] - The management levels of central enterprises are now controlled within four tiers, improving management efficiency and transparency [5] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has implemented a more scientific regulatory approach, including a tailored assessment for each enterprise [5]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported that from January to November 2025, 25,800 urban old community renovation projects were initiated, exceeding the annual target of 25,000 by 800 projects, achieving a completion rate of 103% [1] - The ministry emphasized the "Four Goods" construction (good houses, good communities, good neighborhoods, good urban areas) during the national urban renewal promotion meeting in November 2025, linking urban renewal with stabilizing the real estate market and addressing safety hazards to release housing demand [1] - Local governments, including Guangdong, Shanghai, and Chongqing, are actively responding with detailed policies to support urban renewal initiatives [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance has pre-allocated 56.6 billion yuan for urban affordable housing projects for 2026 and encouraged local special bonds for urban renewal [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission included urban renewal facilities in the REITs issuance scope, expanding long-term financing channels by adding asset types such as commercial offices, hotels, and sports venues [2] - Central economic work meetings may promote special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support urban renewal, with potential policy financial tools reaching a leverage ratio of 14 times in 2026 [2] Group 3 - The focus on "high-quality urban renewal" is a key aspect of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a shift in policy from "large-scale implementation" to "high-quality advancement," emphasizing localized and sustainable operations [3] - Investment in underground pipelines related to urban renewal is expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan by 2026, driving demand in construction and renovation sectors [3] - The current urban renewal landscape is characterized by increased policy support, diversified funding, and leading participation from major state-owned construction enterprises, with a completion rate of approximately 86.8% for 2025 and an acceleration expected in 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The housing construction sector experienced a slight increase of 0.26% on December 25, with Ningbo Construction leading the gains [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3959.62, up by 0.47% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13531.41, up by 0.33% [1] - Key stocks in the housing construction sector showed varied performance, with Ningbo Construction rising by 1.99% to a closing price of 5.13 [1] Group 2: Stock Performance Details - Ningbo Construction (601789) had a trading volume of 204,700 shares and a transaction value of 105 million yuan [1] - Chongqing Construction (600939) increased by 1.81% to a closing price of 3.38, with a trading volume of 685,700 shares and a transaction value of 234 million yuan [1] - Longyuan Construction (600491) rose by 1.49% to a closing price of 2.73, with a trading volume of 164,500 shares and a transaction value of 44.53 million yuan [1] Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The housing construction sector saw a net inflow of 38.02 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 37.14 million yuan [1] - Major stocks like Chongqing Construction and China State Construction attracted significant net inflows of 29.05 million yuan and 23.60 million yuan, respectively [2] - Conversely, stocks like Zhejiang Construction and Gaoxin Development faced substantial net outflows of 11.17 million yuan and 13.25 million yuan, respectively [2]

证券研究报告 建筑装饰 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 25 日 证券分析师 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 重视"春季躁动" ，寻"重大工程"轨迹布局 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——建筑装饰行业周报（20251215-20251221） 投资要点： 本周观点： 联系人 2025 年建筑板块回顾：指数表现分化，我们看好 2026 年建筑板块整体表现。我们从两类不 同视角对建筑板块进行复盘。1）是从年内涨跌幅结构看，截至 2025 年 11 月，SW 建筑装 饰指数累计上涨 8.88%，表现弱于沪深 300 指数，但板块内部结构分化明显。其中，民营建 筑企业受并购重组及新业务拓展推动，相关 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found. Core Views of the Report - The stock market may start a cross - year rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index potentially hitting 4000 points again, and it is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock index futures [1][19]. - The U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak, and it is recommended to be bearish on the U.S. dollar [2][14][15]. - U.S. stocks are expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to hold a positive view on the short - term trend of U.S. stocks [16][17]. - The long - term bond market is building a bottom and is expected to strengthen in the short - to - medium term, while the short - term bond interest rate has limited downward space [24]. - Palm oil is expected to enter a consolidation phase, and it is recommended to wait for the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract; for rapeseed oil, it is recommended to focus on short - term positive spreads between near - and far - term contracts [26]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to adopt a range - trading approach [28][29]. - Coal prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term [30][32]. - Iron ore prices are expected to remain range - bound [33]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see both in single - side trading and arbitrage [34][35]. - Zinc prices are volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to reduce positions or establish hedging positions; in the medium term, it is recommended to look for opportunities to buy on dips [37]. - Lithium carbonate prices may pull back in the short term, but the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [38]. - Nickel prices are expected to return to a range - bound state [40]. - Copper prices may experience short - term corrections, and it is not recommended to chase the high. Instead, it is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips for mid - term long positions [44][45]. - Tin prices are expected to adjust at a high level in the short term, and investors should be vigilant against price drops when the capital enthusiasm fades [51]. - Oil prices are weakly fluctuating. During the overseas holiday period, trading is light, and attention should be paid to the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations [51]. - Asphalt prices are expected to remain weak [53]. - Urea's 01 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the 05 contract should focus on post - holiday spring plowing demand and new export quota policies [55][56]. - LLDPE prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to establish short positions after the rebound [57][58]. - Methanol prices are expected to remain strong, and it is recommended to take a bullish approach, targeting the 2200 - 2250 range [59]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week were 214,000, lower than the expected 224,000. The employment market shows no rapid deterioration, but the cooling trend remains. During the Christmas and New Year holidays, the risk of market volatility increases, and it is not recommended to chase the high in precious metals [10][11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - U.S. Dollar Index) - A U.S. federal judge ruled that the Trump administration's new rule of a $100,000 H - 1B visa application fee is legal, which is a blow to U.S. technology companies. A U.S. official downplayed the possibility of further military action against Venezuela. The U.S. initial jobless claims decreased to 214,000. The labor market is short - term stable, market risk appetite rises, and the U.S. dollar remains weak [12][13][14]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (U.S. Stock Index Futures) - The U.S. employment market shows signs of improvement. With the GDP data exceeding expectations and the unemployment claims data decreasing, the market is optimistic about future interest rate cuts and a soft landing. The S&P 500 has reached a new high, and U.S. stocks are expected to fluctuate upward [16][17]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved six consecutive positive days. Beijing has optimized real - estate policies, and with continuous high trading volume, a cross - year rally may start, and the index may hit 4000 points again. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock index futures [1][18][19]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation. The long - term bond market is building a bottom. It is expected to strengthen in the short - to - medium term, with the curve mainly dominated by long - term bonds. It is recommended that allocation investors buy on interest rate increases, and trading investors buy on dips and exit quickly [24][25]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The MPOA data shows that palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44% month - on - month, verifying the production cut expectation. The supply pressure of palm oil is expected to ease. The supply of rapeseed oil in the near - term is tight, and inventories are declining. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity to go long on palm oil's 05 contract and focus on short - term positive spreads of rapeseed oil [26]. 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Africa launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese color - coated steel. The total new contracts signed by five major construction central enterprises in the first 11 months exceeded 6.5 trillion yuan. Steel prices are slightly rebounding, but the increase is limited. The supply - demand contradiction may accumulate in the future, and it is recommended to trade within a range [27][28][29]. 2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The total social power consumption in November increased by 6.2% year - on - year. Coal prices continue to decline, and due to warm winter weather, the demand growth rate is expected to be negative. With high port inventories, coal prices are expected to continue to fall in the short term [30][32]. 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Construction Work Conference was held, emphasizing key tasks for 2026. The iron ore market is seasonally weak, with expected decline in iron - making water this week. Considering the off - season demand, ore prices are expected to remain range - bound [33]. 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME 0 - 3 lead is at a discount of $42.3 per ton. LME inventories decreased, and the cash spread fluctuated. Domestic social inventories are declining. Due to environmental protection, the production of recycled lead is affected, and the demand is weak. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [34][35]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME 0 - 3 zinc is at a discount of $29.14 per ton. LME inventories increased, and the cash spread fluctuated. Domestic social inventories are increasing. Zinc prices are volatile in the short term and may rise in the medium term. It is recommended to reduce positions or hedge in the short term and buy on dips in the medium term [36][37]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ningde Times' Yichun Jixiawo lithium mine is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival. Short - term prices may pull back, but long - term strategy is to buy on dips [38]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventories increased. Indonesia plans to set a lower nickel ore production quota in 2026. The market is skeptical about this plan. The cost of nickel smelting may increase. Nickel prices are expected to return to a range - bound state [39][40]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Multiple copper - related projects are in progress. Short - term copper prices are supported by macro factors but may be affected by changes in macro expectations and inventory accumulation. It is recommended not to chase the high and wait for opportunities to buy on dips for mid - term long positions [44][45]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Turkey imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese tin - plated steel. The inventories of SHFE and LME tin increased. The supply shortage has eased in the short term, and demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to adjust at a high level in the short term [51]. 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The loading volume of the CPC pipeline in December decreased. Oil prices are weakly fluctuating. Overseas trading is light during the holiday period. Attention should be paid to the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations [51]. 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt increased. Asphalt prices are declining, and due to the off - season demand, prices are expected to remain weak [52][53]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Urea enterprise inventories decreased. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the 05 contract should focus on post - holiday spring plowing demand and new export quota policies [55][56]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises decreased. LLDPE prices rebounded, but it is not a reversal. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to establish short positions after the rebound [57][58]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - Chinese methanol port inventories increased, but the actual increase may be less. With the overall rebound of the chemical industry, methanol prices are expected to remain strong. It is recommended to take a bullish approach, targeting the 2200 - 2250 range [58][59].

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference in December 2025 emphasizes the need to "promote investment stabilization" in 2026, leading to an optimistic outlook on fiscal policy for the upcoming year, particularly in infrastructure investment, which is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2026 [1][3][18]. Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal measures for 2026 are anticipated to be more proactive, with a focus on stabilizing investment and stimulating private sector investment [3][4]. - The trend of "central government increasing leverage while local governments reduce leverage" is expected to continue, with the central government taking a more significant role in driving investment due to limited local government borrowing capacity [4][18]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment is projected to be a crucial growth stabilizer in 2026, with a forecasted growth rate of 4.5% [18]. - The central government is expected to play a vital role in supporting infrastructure investment, particularly in the western regions, where there is significant potential for growth [18][32]. Construction Sector Insights - The construction state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are expected to benefit from debt reduction initiatives, leading to improved asset quality and valuation recovery [2][22]. - The share of receivables in total assets for major construction SOEs has been rising, indicating a need for financial improvement and valuation recovery as local government funding stabilizes [22][26]. Regional Investment Opportunities - The western provinces, particularly Sichuan, are highlighted as having high potential for infrastructure investment due to favorable central government funding and strategic positioning [32][39]. - The central transfer payment to western provinces is projected to be 4 trillion yuan, accounting for 42.2% of total central transfer payments, indicating strong financial support for infrastructure projects [32][36]. Manufacturing Sector Outlook - Manufacturing investment is expected to stabilize with a growth rate of around 5% in 2026, driven by a recovery in semiconductor capital expenditures [14][46]. - The cleanroom engineering sector is anticipated to benefit significantly from the upturn in semiconductor investments [46]. International Market Growth - The overseas market is projected to become a second growth curve for construction companies, with expectations of continued growth in new contracts and revenue from international projects [2][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes optimism regarding fiscal policy in 2026, particularly in infrastructure investment as a means to stabilize economic growth amid a challenging real estate market [2][4][5]. Fiscal Policy Outlook - The 2026 fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive, with a focus on stabilizing investment and stimulating private sector activity [4][5]. - Central government investment is anticipated to increase, while local governments will continue to reduce leverage due to rising debt risks [5]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow at a rate of 4.5% in 2026, driven by ongoing support from central fiscal measures [2][15]. - The central government is expected to play a significant role in funding infrastructure projects, particularly in the western regions of China [27][28]. Regional Investment Opportunities - The western provinces, especially Sichuan, are highlighted as having high potential for infrastructure investment due to favorable central government support and strategic positioning [3][27][34]. - Sichuan's transportation investment is leading nationally, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.9% from 2020 to 2024, indicating strong growth prospects [32]. Manufacturing Sector Insights - Manufacturing investment is expected to stabilize with a growth rate of around 5% in 2026, benefiting from a potential recovery in semiconductor capital expenditures [3][12]. - The cleanroom engineering sector is identified as a key beneficiary of increased capital spending in high-end manufacturing [3]. International Engineering Opportunities - The overseas market is anticipated to become a second growth curve for construction companies, with significant growth in new contracts and revenue from foreign projects since 2025 [3][12]. Debt Management and Corporate Valuation - The ongoing debt management efforts are expected to improve the asset quality and valuation of state-owned construction enterprises, which have seen a decline in price-to-book ratios due to rising receivables [2][16]. - The average funding cost for major construction enterprises is around 4%, with some companies achieving lower rates through bond issuance [22][23]. Construction Sector Dynamics - The construction sector is experiencing a shift towards higher market concentration, with leading companies increasing their market share significantly in recent years [22][23]. - The article notes that the average market share of major construction enterprises has risen to 22.9% in revenue terms and 48.9% in order terms [22][23].

期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪偏暖，钢矿触底回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.06%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹供应低位企稳，而需求同样弱稳，淡季基本面未见好转，钢价仍易 承压，相对利好的是成本支撑与政策预期，预计螺纹延续低位震荡运行 态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 一 产业动态 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.09%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库存高位 ...