Core Viewpoint - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) announced the incentive income for executives of central enterprises for the 2022-2024 term, with a total of 87 enterprises disclosing their incentive income figures. Group 1: Incentive Income Overview - The total incentive income for central enterprise executives consists of annual salary and term incentive income, with the latter being distributed every three years [1]. - Notable figures include: - Jiao Houliang, Chairman of China National Petroleum Corporation, with an incentive income of 86.21 million RMB for the 2022-2024 term [1]. - Ma Yongsheng, Chairman of Sinopec, with an incentive income of 84.81 million RMB [3]. - Wang Dongjin, Chairman of China National Offshore Oil Corporation, with an incentive income of 86.06 million RMB [4]. Group 2: Specific Executive Incentive Income - Zhang Wei, Chairman of the National Oil and Gas Pipeline Group, has an incentive income of 78.17 million RMB [6]. - Meng Zhenping, Chairman of China Southern Power Grid, has an incentive income of 83.54 million RMB [8]. - Temperature of incentive income varies across different enterprises, with some executives like Liu Mingsheng from China Power Investment Corporation receiving 26.02 million RMB for the 2022-2024 term [13]. Group 3: Additional Notable Executives - Chen Zhongyue, Chairman of China Unicom, has an incentive income of 80.49 million RMB [17]. - Xu Peng, from China First Automobile Group, has an incentive income of 82.54 million RMB [23]. - Wang Xianming, Chairman of China Resources Group, has an incentive income of 82.44 million RMB [54].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its focus stock list for mainland China and Hong Kong, including China Aluminum in its A-share focus list and removing Changjiang Power, indicating a positive outlook for China Aluminum as the largest aluminum producer in the country [1] Group 1: Company Overview - China Aluminum holds a legal aluminum production quota of 8.15 million tons and has announced plans to establish a joint venture with Rio Tinto to acquire nearly 69% of Brazilian aluminum assets [1] - The successful completion of this transaction is expected to boost China Aluminum's green aluminum production and increase its share of overseas market operations [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that aluminum prices will remain high this year due to macroeconomic factors, a weaker dollar, increased domestic capacity in China, and limited growth in overseas supply [1] - The industry fundamentals are tight, and production costs may slightly decrease, leading to strong profit margins for China Aluminum this year [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley believes that China Aluminum has the capability to gradually increase dividends over the next few years and has assigned an "Overweight" rating to the stock [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached $13,512.63 per ton, with a daily increase of 0.26% [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association suggested improving the copper resource reserve system, including expanding national copper strategic reserves and exploring commercial reserve mechanisms [1] - Current copper prices are under pressure due to expectations of a reduction in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, but the supply-demand fundamentals remain strong, with a projected widening global copper mine gap and increasing demand from AI infrastructure [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) includes 30 large-cap companies involved in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare earth metals [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index account for 55.71% of the index, including companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum [2]

Group 1 - The spot gold price surpassed $5000, increasing by over 2% on the morning of the 4th, with domestic gold jewelry prices rising significantly [1] - Dongwu Securities noted that Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman has created a "hawkish" impression, negatively impacting market risk appetite and leading to a downward spiral in precious metals due to high leverage among bulls [1] - The overall precious metals market is expected to maintain a volatile bottoming pattern in the short term, with gold anticipated to have upward momentum after a period of low consolidation [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) had a 0.64% increase, with notable gains from stocks such as Hunan Gold (3.11%) and Huayou Cobalt (3.03%) [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index account for 49.87% of the index, including Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [2]

Fixed Income Research - The net financing amount is at a historically high level, indicating that the logic of asset scarcity has dissipated. The overall change in the issuance guidance rates published by the trading association has mostly decreased by 5 to 1 basis points. In January, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with only medium-term notes seeing a decrease in issuance amount, while other varieties saw increases. The net financing amount for credit bonds increased month-on-month, with medium-term notes showing a decrease, while other varieties saw increases. Corporate bonds, directional tools had negative net financing, while corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds had positive net financing [2][3]. - In the secondary market, the transaction scale of credit bonds decreased month-on-month, with transaction amounts for all varieties declining. The yield on credit bonds remained low and fluctuated, with most varieties showing a month-on-month decline in average yield. The credit spread for most varieties narrowed month-on-month, with the varieties that widened mainly concentrated in the 7-year term. Most varieties' spreads are at historical lows. From an absolute return perspective, insufficient supply and relatively strong allocation demand will continue to drive the recovery of credit bonds. Although fluctuations are inevitable due to various factors, the conditions for a comprehensive bear market in credit bonds remain insufficient. In the long run, future yields are still in a downward channel, and the strategy of increasing allocation during adjustments remains feasible [3]. Fund Research - In January, the market for actively managed equity funds saw a significant increase in issuance, with a total of 88 new funds issued, amounting to 91.48 billion yuan. The issuance of actively managed equity funds and passive equity funds was 41.70 billion units and 19.62 billion units, respectively, with a significant increase in the issuance of actively managed equity funds. Overall, the issuance market for equity funds has warmed up significantly, especially for actively managed equity funds [6][7]. - The performance of equity markets was outstanding in January, with all types of funds showing varying degrees of increase. The average increase for commodity funds was the largest at 17.92%. The growth style outperformed the value style, and the mid-cap balanced style had the largest increase at 8.99%, while the large-cap value style had the smallest increase at approximately 4.22% [8]. Industry Research - The valuation repair of the real estate chain can continue, with positive signals from the government regarding real estate policies. The market is transitioning from a large-scale expansion phase to a focus on quality improvement. The goal is to actively construct a new development model for real estate, emphasizing both short-term and long-term strategies. The sales recovery process will significantly impact bond valuations, and investors with a higher risk appetite may consider early positioning, especially in companies showing strong performance in new financing and sales recovery [4][10]. - In the paper industry, several leading companies have announced price increases for white cardboard and corrugated paper, with expected price hikes of 200 yuan/ton for white cardboard and 30-50 yuan/ton for corrugated paper. The upcoming annual maintenance period for paper companies will disrupt supply, while the approaching Spring Festival will boost packaging demand from e-commerce, food, and beverage sectors, supporting price increases [12]. - In the metals industry, the steel sector is expected to continue a weak performance due to the Spring Festival holiday, with production and demand both shrinking. The copper market is also anticipated to see inventory accumulation due to reduced production activities during the holiday, with a focus on post-holiday demand verification [13][15].

或由于现货黄金重回4900美元，完全收复昨日跌幅，今日（2月3日）有色ETF华宝（159876）强势反 弹，场内价格最高飙涨超6.7%，最终收涨6.4%，一举收复20日均线。 成份股方面，湖南黄金涨停，中稀有色涨超8%，涨幅居前。权重股方面，紫金矿业、北方稀土涨超 6%，洛阳钼业涨逾4%，中国铝业涨超3%。 有色金属为何能够强势反弹？或可从两方面进行拆解： 1、市场"误判"新美联储主席，降息是获提名前提 高盛指出，沃什愿意降息是他获得这份工作的先决条件，并且不认为沃什会推动资产负债表大幅缩减， 因美联储内部对"充足准备金"框架有广泛支持。沃什可能不会真正推动重启量化紧缩，因为这对风险资 产的破坏性太大。* 2、地缘政治扰动，"战略自主"重要性凸显 巴克莱指出，特朗普2.0时代的政策核心是"扩张性财政+关税通胀"。美国政府债务水平高企且无意约 束，投资者对法币贬值的长期恐惧因政策不确定性而加剧。德意志银行指出，继俄罗斯储备被冻结后， 全球央行"战略自主"需求凸显。黄金的储备地位从"收益驱动"转向"生存驱动"*。 黄金牛市还在吗？近期黄金暴跌被华尔街视为"技术性洗盘"，牛市逻辑并未动摇。德银坚定看多至6000 美 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rapid recovery on February 3, with over 4,800 stocks rising and the three major indices rebounding collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.29% to 4,067.74 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.86%. The total market turnover was 2.57 trillion yuan, compared to 2.61 trillion yuan the previous day [1]. Sector Performance - The precious metals market saw a strong rebound, with the Color ETF (159876) recovering 6.4% and the Chemical ETF (516020) rising by 3.97%. Spot gold regained its previous day's losses, surpassing $4,900 per ounce, with multiple foreign institutions asserting that the logic behind the gold bull market remains intact [2][5]. - The military and aerospace sectors surged following the announcement of SpaceX's merger with xAI, with the Military ETF (512810) increasing by 4.75% and the General Aviation ETF (159231) rising by 3.51%. Both ETFs have over 65% exposure to commercial aerospace [3][11]. Chemical Sector Insights - The chemical sector experienced a broad-based rally, with the Chemical ETF (516020) reaching a peak increase of 4.3% during the day. Key stocks in the sector, such as Hongda Co. and Cangge Mining, saw significant gains, with some stocks rising over 9% [9]. - Analysts suggest that the recent price increases in the chemical sector are driven by a combination of supply-demand mismatches, macroeconomic easing, and industrial upgrades. The sector is expected to maintain high profitability for the next 3-5 years [7][9]. Military Sector Developments - The military sector saw a significant influx of capital, with net purchases exceeding 171 billion yuan in defense and military stocks, ranking second among 31 primary industries. The Military ETF (512810) ended a four-day decline with a strong performance, with all 80 constituent stocks rising [11][12]. - The merger of SpaceX and xAI is anticipated to enhance the valuation of domestic military enterprises involved in satellite communication and related technologies, as the market expects accelerated advancements in these areas [14]. Gold Market Analysis - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and UBS maintain a bullish outlook on gold, with predictions of prices reaching $6,000 and $4,500 as a strong support level, respectively. The demand from Chinese buyers is noted to be significantly high, potentially tripling from the previous year [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - Companies and analysts recommend maintaining a balanced exposure to the color metal sector, suggesting a portfolio allocation of 10-20% to capitalize on potential gains while mitigating risks [7]. - The chemical sector is also highlighted as a promising investment opportunity, with a focus on leading companies and those benefiting from price increases due to recent policy changes [9].

华源证券近日发布有色金属大宗金属周报：锂电需求"淡季不淡"，碳酸锂供需反转，锂价进入上行周 期。本周碳酸锂价格上涨12.86%至15.8万元/吨，锂辉石精矿上涨5.32%至1980美元/吨。本周碳酸锂期货 主力合约2605上涨1.94%至14.62万元/吨。周五碳酸锂期货跌停，或主要系广期所加大监管力度，投机 资金获利了结所致。 钴：钴原料偏紧格局仍未改变，钴价有望延续上行。本周MB钴上涨0.59%至25.68美元/磅，国内电钴价 格下跌1.31%为45.2万元/吨。刚果（金）自10月16日起解除钴出口禁令，改为实施钴出口配额制。供给 端，刚果（金）决定将允许2025年第四季度的钴出口配额延续至2026年3月底，考虑到运输周期，预计 国内原料或将在今年3月后才能陆续到港，钴原料结构性偏紧逻辑不变，钴价有望延续上涨。建议关 注：华友钴业、洛阳钼业、腾远钴业、力勤资源、寒锐钴业。 以下为研究报告摘要： 风险提示：下游复产不及预期风险；国内房地产需求不振风险；新能源汽车增速不及预期风险。（华源 证券 田源,张明磊,田庆争,陈婉妤,陈轩） 投资要点： 铜：库存累积叠加关税预期推迟，铜价短期或迎来高位震荡。本周伦铜/沪 ...

Industry Overview - The report indicates that the steel industry is expected to continue its weak performance in February due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, with demand likely to remain subdued and production to contract, leading to slight fluctuations in steel prices [2][17][18] - In the copper sector, production activities on both supply and demand sides are anticipated to be affected by the Spring Festival, resulting in continued inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to post-holiday demand verification and geopolitical developments [2][32] - The aluminum industry is facing a slight contraction in production, with sufficient supply of bauxite from Guinea. Post-holiday production recovery in alumina and electrolytic aluminum plants may support alumina prices [3][41] - Gold prices are expected to experience increased volatility in the short term, influenced by geopolitical risks and domestic political uncertainties in the U.S. [3][51] Steel Sector - The steel PMI index for January 2026 is reported at 49.9%, indicating continued contraction but a slowdown in the rate of decline, with steel prices showing slight fluctuations [17] - In December 2025, the average daily transaction volume of construction steel was 98,600 tons, down 1.81% month-on-month and 10.95% year-on-year [18] - The total crude steel production for December 2025 was 960.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.40% [19] Copper Sector - China's electrolytic copper production in January increased by 0.10% month-on-month and 16.32% year-on-year, with a total production of 1.326 million tons in December 2025 [32][33] - The LME copper inventory rose by 18.69% to 175,000 tons, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 91.81% to 156,900 tons during the same period [33][40] Aluminum Sector - The production of metallurgical-grade alumina in January 2026 decreased by 1.78% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, with total production at 8.011 million tons in December 2025 [41][42] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production in December 2025 was 3.874 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.87% [42] Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 13.28% to $4,907.50 per ounce from December 31, 2025, to January 30, 2026, while silver prices rose by 20.10% to $85.25 per ounce during the same period [51][52] Lithium and Cobalt - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 32.08% to 158,500 yuan per ton, while the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide rose by 64.58% to 158,000 yuan per ton [53] - The average price of 1 cobalt decreased by 4.99% to 447,000 yuan per ton during the reporting period [65] Rare Earths - The report notes a recovery in the supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxides, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing by 23.41% to 748,500 yuan per ton [73]

截至2026年2月3日 14:40，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)强势上涨3.57%，成分股东阳光上涨10.02%， 湖南黄金上涨10.00%，中稀有色上涨8.93%，盛和资源，盛屯矿业等个股跟涨。有色ETF鹏华(159880) 上涨6.68%，最新价报2.28元。 有色ETF鹏华(159880)，场外联接(A：021296；C：021297；I：022886)。 有色ETF鹏华紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归 属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只证券作为样本，反映了沪深北交易所有色金属行业上市公 司的整体收益表现，向市场提供细分行业的指数化投资标的。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、洛阳 钼业、北方稀土、中国铝业、华友钴业、中金黄金、山东黄金、兴业银锡、赣锋锂业、云铝股份，前十 大权重股合计占比49.87%。 有色金属强势反弹，消息面上，中国有色金属工业协会相关负责人表示，完善铜资源储备体系建设，一 方面扩大国家铜战略储备规模，另一方面探索进行商业储备机制，通过财政贴息等方式选择国有 ...