建筑装饰 2026 年 03 月 01 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 统筹发展和安全，牢固树立和践行正确政绩观 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20260223-20260227） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数+4.97%，沪深 300 指 数+1.08%，相对收益为+3.89pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为国际 工程（+8.33%）、基建民企（+6.10%）、专业工程（+5.91%），对应行 业内三个公司：中铝国际（+16.12%）、成都路桥（+1 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 建筑装饰 建筑板块哪些标的受益涨价？ 需求平稳+供给受限，有色/化工/钢铁/煤炭等行业有望迎来涨价。需求 端看：2 月 27 日政治局会议表态要"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"、"持 续扩大内需、优化供给"、"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策"；此前中央经济工作会议表态要"推动投资止跌回稳"；叠加近期 上海等城市地产政策优化，进一步稳固地产行业预期。在系列政策呵护下 预计我国 2026 年总需求有望平稳。供给端看：各行业积极推动反内卷政 策落地，以及高耗能行业积极落实控制碳排放，整体供给端受限。在需求 平稳、供给受限背景下，预计有色/化工/钢铁/煤炭等行业有望迎来涨价。 有色：宏观流动性、地缘贸易变局与产业基本面硬约束三重共振驱动价格 上涨。宏观流动性方面，2026 年美联储降息周期的演进为大宗商品提供 了流动性基础。地缘贸易方面，以铜为例，由于近期美国铜关税政策调整 预期，导致美国市场以溢价持续囤积库存，在此类关税政策多变背景下， 全球资金更愿意把部分金属当作战略资源/硬资产来配置，从而推高阶段 性波动。产 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of energy security amid the US-Iran conflict and highlights investment opportunities in the construction sector during the upcoming Two Sessions, focusing on major projects, urban renewal, and new productivity infrastructure [1][4]. Section Summaries 1. Investment Opportunities Ahead of the 2026 Two Sessions - The report predicts that the Two Sessions will continue the "proactive fiscal policy + structural monetary easing" approach, with three main focuses: major projects, urban renewal, and new productivity infrastructure. Infrastructure investment growth is expected to rebound from approximately -1% in 2025 to around 6.2% in 2026, becoming a key driver for stabilizing fixed asset investment [12][13]. 2. Mainline Selection - Structural recovery in infrastructure investment is anticipated, particularly in regions like Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Tibet, supported by central government funding. The report suggests monitoring order fulfillment and company PE levels, with a focus on companies such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, Xinjiang Communications Construction, and others [20][22]. 3. Timing Theme Investments - The report identifies urban renewal, underground pipelines, environmental codes, and the Middle East situation as key investment themes. It highlights the importance of urban renewal policies and the expected increase in demand for underground pipeline construction, with over 700,000 kilometers planned for renovation during the 14th Five-Year Plan, requiring over 5 trillion yuan in new investment [4][12]. 4. Left-Side Recommendations - Major construction state-owned enterprises are currently undervalued and have low institutional holdings. The report suggests focusing on companies with strong cash flow management and stable dividend policies, such as China State Construction, China Railway Construction, and others [4][20]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on energy security due to escalating US-Iran tensions, with specific suggestions for companies in chemical engineering, nuclear power, and oil and gas sectors. It also emphasizes the importance of urban renewal and underground pipeline projects, recommending companies like China State Construction and China Communications Construction [4][24]. 6. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides a detailed valuation and financial analysis of key companies in the construction sector, indicating a generally positive outlook with buy ratings for major players such as China State Construction, China Railway, and others, reflecting their potential for growth and recovery [5][18].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 建筑装饰 建筑板块哪些标的受益涨价？ 需求平稳+供给受限，有色/化工/钢铁/煤炭等行业有望迎来涨价。需求 端看：2 月 27 日政治局会议表态要"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"、"持 续扩大内需、优化供给"、"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策"；此前中央经济工作会议表态要"推动投资止跌回稳"；叠加近期 上海等城市地产政策优化，进一步稳固地产行业预期。在系列政策呵护下 预计我国 2026 年总需求有望平稳。供给端看：各行业积极推动反内卷政 策落地，以及高耗能行业积极落实控制碳排放，整体供给端受限。在需求 平稳、供给受限背景下，预计有色/化工/钢铁/煤炭等行业有望迎来涨价。 有色：宏观流动性、地缘贸易变局与产业基本面硬约束三重共振驱动价格 上涨。宏观流动性方面，2026 年美联储降息周期的演进为大宗商品提供 了流动性基础。地缘贸易方面，以铜为例，由于近期美国铜关税政策调整 预期，导致美国市场以溢价持续囤积库存，在此类关税政策多变背景下， 全球资金更愿意把部分金属当作战略资源/硬资产来配置，从而推高阶段 性波动。产 ...

Current Strategy Viewpoints - The capital market experienced fluctuations in early February but rebounded later in the month, primarily due to reduced trading activity before the Spring Festival and short-term policy guidance [1] - The market is expected to enter a phase of economic data and policy verification, with a seasonal increase in trading activity post-Spring Festival, laying a foundation for future market performance [1] - Upcoming economic and corporate profit data, along with the National People's Congress in March, will be crucial for setting the annual policy tone and economic targets, which are significant for the capital market [1] Sector Focus - Short-term focus on safe-haven assets and resource products due to tensions in the Middle East, including precious metals and oil sectors [2] - Long-term focus on growth and cyclical sectors, with particular attention to small-cap stocks that typically perform well in spring [2] - Key sectors to watch include humanoid robots, computing, and AI, benefiting from sustained industry enthusiasm and increased risk appetite among investors [2] Macro Overview - The upcoming National People's Congress will set the tone for the annual economy, with GDP growth targets expected to be set between 4.5% and 5% [8] - Fiscal policy is anticipated to include a deficit rate of 4.0% and new special bonds totaling 5 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in fiscal deficit compared to last year [8] Financial Engineering - The A-share market has seen a rise in industry crowding, particularly in media and resource sectors, with the media sector showing a crowding degree of 98.25% [12][14] - The resource sector continues to perform well, with price fluctuations leading to a decrease in crowding indicators, suggesting a potential for continued upward movement [13] Electronic Communication Industry - The upcoming GTC conference is expected to showcase new chip developments from NVIDIA, reinforcing AI as a core investment theme [24] - The demand for storage products is projected to rise significantly, driven by strong AI customer needs and price increases in the DRAM market [25] Computer Industry - The rapid iteration of domestic AI large models is expected to drive significant growth in computing power investments, with a focus on world model technology advancements [28] - The demand for AI-driven applications is anticipated to increase, leading to a surge in computing needs and infrastructure investments [29] New Energy Industry - Focus on hydrogen and ammonia projects, with government support for integrated energy bases expected to drive growth in this sector [32] - The electric power equipment sector is poised for growth due to ongoing global energy demands and potential easing of import restrictions in India [32] High-end Manufacturing Industry - The humanoid robot sector is entering a phase of mass production, with significant advancements showcased during the Spring Festival [35] - The North American AI supply chain remains robust, with ongoing demand for advanced equipment and materials expected to drive growth [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the construction decoration industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the relaxation of real estate purchase restrictions in Shanghai, which is expected to boost housing demand and benefit leading cyclical companies [15][16]. - It emphasizes the importance of the upcoming Two Sessions in March 2026, which may introduce supportive policies for strategic engineering projects and new productivity sectors [16]. - The report suggests focusing on construction state-owned enterprises for recovery opportunities and transformation into new business lines [15][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - The construction decoration index increased by 4.97%, outperforming the overall A-share index by 3.86 percentage points [14]. - The report recommends three main investment lines: 1. Focus on state-owned enterprises for recovery and transformation opportunities [22]. 2. Invest in high-demand sectors such as tunneling, civil explosives, and geotechnical engineering [22]. 3. Explore new economic directions like commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, computing power, and AI [22]. Market Performance - The construction decoration sector showed significant gains, with individual stocks like Roman Shares rising by 37.70% and China Railway by 14.55% [28]. - The report notes that the issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a cumulative net financing of 7,461 billion yuan as of February 27, 2026, which is higher than the same period in the previous two years [17][18]. Company Dynamics - Key company updates include: - China Railway Construction reported a revenue of 100.5 billion yuan for 2025, a slight decrease of 0.01% year-on-year [36]. - Donghua Technology achieved a revenue of 100.2 billion yuan, marking a 13.12% increase year-on-year [36]. - Honglu Steel Structure announced a reduction in the conversion price of its convertible bonds from 32.08 yuan to 21.99 yuan per share [36]. Industry Valuation - As of February 27, 2026, the price-to-earnings ratios (PE) for various construction sub-sectors are as follows: - Housing construction: 6.41x - Decoration: -28.12x - Municipal engineering: 8.35x - Garden engineering: -12.39x - Steel structure: 39.78x - Chemical engineering: 13.14x - International engineering: 13.49x - Other professional engineering: 67.05x - Engineering consulting services: 51.44x [37].

结合PE估值及PB估值，给予公司2026年目标市值1980亿元，对应目标价8.3元，维持"买入"评级。 既有矿产稳健生产，"价"的上涨释放业绩弹性。 公司为国内基建工程头部企业，过往借助"项目换资源"方式，在境内外全资、控股或参股投资建成5座现代化矿 山，生产和销售的主要矿产品包括铜、钴、钼、 铅、锌、银等。 2022年至今产量均维持在相对稳定水平，年度平均产量分别为29.2万吨、0.5万吨、1.5万吨、0.9万吨、2.5万吨和 41.6吨。 受益于去年以来铜、钴等金属品价格大幅上涨，我们预计其矿产资源业务业绩亦将随之释放弹性，测算2025、 2026矿产资源业务归属净利润分别将达48.1亿元（+60.2%）、71.4亿元（+48.5%），对公司整体业绩贡献将分别 提升至19%、27%，资源企业属性将进一步增强。 【中信基础材料和工程服务】价、量齐增，资源业务助力重估 —中国中铁深度跟踪 公司作为国内基建头部企业，布局铜、钴、钼、 铅、锌、银等资源业务多年，当前我们认为已迎来价值重估契 机，主要源于：1）铜、钴等金属品大幅涨价助力公司矿产资源业务业绩贡献大幅提升；2）近期新增超大银矿拿 矿，助力公司矿产资源业 ...

那时候的全球经济，就是美日双雄的天下。美国的企业垄断着金融、能源和科技领域，日本则在汽车、电子、精密制造上独树一帜，前10名里日本就占了6 席，三菱商事、三井物产这些综合商社，在全球贸易中话语权十足。而咱们的3家企业，只能在榜单末尾徘徊，那时候没人敢想，30年后，这份格局会被彻 底改写。 谁也没想到，短短三十年，风水轮流转。2025年最新的榜单一出来，再回头看当年的差距，真的让人感慨万千。现在的格局早已不是美日双强，而是中美双 雄并立，日本则一步步褪去光环，彻底沦为第三梯队。 咱们的崛起，不是一蹴而就的，而是一步一个脚印走出来的。早期上榜的都是能源、金融、基建类央企，比如国家电网、中石油，靠规模站稳脚跟；后来， 比亚迪、宁德时代、拼多多这些民企异军突起，比亚迪从2022年首次上榜，短短几年就跻身百强，拼多多更是上榜即逆袭，排名一路飙升。 | 国内排名 | 公司名称 | 营业收入(亿元) | 利润 亿元 | 世界邦 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 国家电网有限公司 | ¥ 42,322.24 | ¥ 775.19 | 50 | | 2 | 中国石油天然气集团有限公 ...

2026年，旗帜鲜明，看多建筑！——建筑股配置价值的五点思考 一、强安全垫和政策弹性的好底仓。 八大建筑央企占据板块市值近半，市值大（平均市值1000亿+）、估值低（pb均破净），且为源 头 信 息加 微 ss62897沪深300成分股。 尤其是基建、房建主导的【中国建筑】、【中国铁建】、【中国中铁】、【中国交建】，当前低位、强安全边际 同时，政策弹性较大。 为什么2026年增配建筑？ 伴随市场交易活跃、成交额放大，风格切换与资金轮动加快。 建筑板块作为显著滞涨（2025年上涨7.4%，排名25/32）与机构低配（Q4板块基金重仓比例0.37%，低配1.23%）板 块，叠加2026年作为十五五开局之年，政策加码与基本面企稳预期渐强，板块整体可以增配，具备绝佳的轮动配 置价值，且 2026年，旗帜鲜明，看多建筑！——建筑股配置价值的五点思考 为什么2026年增配建筑？ 伴随市场交易活跃、成交额放大，风格切换与资金轮动加快。 建筑板块作为显著滞涨（2025年上涨7.4%，排名25/32）与机构低配（Q4板块基金重仓比例0.37%，低配1.23%）板 块，叠加2026年作为十五五开局之年，政策加码与基本面企稳预期渐 ...

Core Viewpoint - On February 26, brokerages provided target prices for listed companies, with notable increases for Hongsoft Technology, China Railway, and Yifan Pharmaceutical, showing target price increases of 47.71%, 34.96%, and 32.82% respectively, across the IT services, infrastructure, and chemical pharmaceutical industries [1][2]. Group 1: Target Price Increases - Hongsoft Technology received a target price increase of 47.71%, with a new target price of 71.27 CNY [3]. - China Railway's target price increased by 34.96%, with a new target price of 8.30 CNY [3]. - Yifan Pharmaceutical's target price rose by 32.82%, with a new target price of 17.40 CNY [3]. Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 27 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on February 26, with China Railway, Bohui Paper, and Zhujiang Beer each receiving one recommendation [2]. - Bohui Paper's rating was upgraded from "Range Trading" to "Buy" by Guotai Junan Securities [5]. Group 3: Rating Adjustments - Two companies had their ratings downgraded: Baolong Technology from "Buy" to "Hold" by Tianfeng Securities, and Haiguang Information from "Buy" to "Range Trading" by Guotai Junan Securities [6][8]. - The companies involved in the downgrades were Baolong Technology and Haiguang Information [8]. Group 4: First Coverage - Six companies received first coverage on February 26, including Matrix Co. and Anfu Technology, both rated "Outperform" by Guotai Junan Securities [10]. - Other companies receiving first coverage included Aorite with a "Buy" rating from Zhongyou Securities, Delijia with a "Buy" rating from Dongwu Securities, and Hanguo Group with an "Increase" rating from Dongguan Securities [10].