Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong investment rating for the public utility sector, emphasizing a focus on "dividend + growth" opportunities and an increased allocation towards solid waste management in the environmental sector [1][5]. Core Insights - The public utility sector's fund allocation stabilized and increased in Q4 2025, with a market value of approximately 144.54 billion yuan, accounting for 0.39% of total fund allocation, a slight increase of 0.02% from the previous quarter [5][18]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on leading companies that possess both dividend attributes and growth potential, particularly in light of improved profitability expectations due to capacity and electricity price policies [5][23]. - The environmental sector is advised to concentrate on solid waste management operations and companies with marginal improvements or thematic flexibility, as the demand for green fuels continues to tighten [5][27]. Summary by Sections Public Utility Sector Dynamics - In February 2026, the average transaction price for electricity in Jiangsu was 312.80 yuan/MWh, a decrease of 3.67% month-on-month and 23.89% year-on-year. In Shanxi, the average price was 288.65 yuan/MWh, down 1.17% month-on-month and 10.95% year-on-year [2][41]. - The total national power generation in December 2025 was approximately 858.6 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.46% and a month-on-month increase of 10.19% [2][44]. Fund Holdings Overview - The top ten stocks in the public utility sector by fund holdings in Q4 2025 included Changjiang Electric Power, Huaneng International, and China Nuclear Power, with significant increases in holdings for Huaneng International and Changjiang Electric Power [5][23][24]. - In the environmental sector, the top ten stocks by fund holdings included Weiming Environmental and Huanlan Environment, with notable increases in holdings for Weiming Environmental and Dadi Ocean [5][27][28]. Price Tracking - The report tracks the price trends of various energy sources, noting that the CCI index for thermal coal was 696 yuan/ton as of February 4, 2026, reflecting a slight increase [7][29]. - The LNG ex-factory price index in China was reported at 3965 yuan/ton, showing a decrease of 1.98% [8][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong investment rating for the public utility sector, emphasizing a focus on "dividend + growth" opportunities and an increased allocation towards solid waste management in the environmental sector [1][5]. Core Insights - The public utility sector's fund allocation stabilized and increased in Q4 2025, with a market value of approximately 144.54 billion yuan, accounting for 0.39% of total fund allocation, a slight increase of 0.02% from the previous quarter [5][18]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on leading companies that possess both dividend attributes and growth potential, particularly in light of improved profitability expectations due to capacity and electricity pricing policies [5][23]. - The environmental sector is advised to concentrate on solid waste management operations and companies with marginal improvements or thematic flexibility, as the demand for green fuels continues to tighten [5][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Fund Holdings Overview - In Q4 2025, the top ten stocks in the public utility sector by fund holdings included Changjiang Electric, Huaneng International, and China Nuclear Power, with significant increases in holdings for Huaneng International and Changjiang Electric [5][23][24]. 2. Weekly Review of the Sector - From February 2 to February 6, 2026, the public utility index rose by 0.16%, while the environmental index increased by 0.09%, contrasting with declines in the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [5][29]. 3. Dynamics of the Public Utility Sector 3.1 Electricity Tracking - In February 2026, the average transaction price for electricity in Jiangsu was 312.80 yuan/MWh, down 3.67% month-on-month and 23.89% year-on-year. In Shanxi, the average price was 288.65 yuan/MWh, down 1.17% month-on-month and 10.95% year-on-year [5][41]. 3.2 Power Generation - The total power generation in December 2025 was approximately 858.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.46% and a month-on-month increase of 10.19% [5][44]. 4. Price and Inventory Tracking - The report notes an upward trend in thermal coal prices, with the CCI index at 696 yuan/ton as of February 4, 2026, reflecting a slight increase [5][7]. - Natural gas prices showed a decrease, with the LNG ex-factory price index at 3965 yuan/ton as of February 6, 2026, down 1.98% [5][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The Southeast Asian waste incineration market is poised for significant growth, with a projected demand for incineration capacity reaching 222,000 tons per day by 2030 and 491,000 tons per day by 2050, representing an investment opportunity exceeding 100 billion [6][15] - The domestic waste incineration market in China has entered a mature phase, with the operational capacity reaching 1.16 million tons per day by the end of 2024, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [16][20] - The profitability of waste incineration projects in Southeast Asia is expected to be significantly higher than domestic projects, with potential net profit margins exceeding 25% under optimistic scenarios [6][15] Summary by Sections Domestic Waste Market - The domestic incineration market is relatively saturated, with listed companies' capacity under construction accounting for less than 10% of total operational capacity [16][26] - The business model of waste incineration is resilient, characterized by stable profits and strong cash flow, with a 4.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for the waste incineration sector in Q1-Q3 2025 [28][31] Southeast Asian Waste Incineration Market - Population growth and urbanization are driving waste generation, making incineration the preferred solution for urban management in Southeast Asia [6][15] - The incineration rate in Southeast Asia is expected to accelerate, with significant investment opportunities available [6][15] Profitability and Operational Risks - High electricity prices and disposal fees are enhancing profitability, with revenue from Southeast Asian projects estimated to be 1.8 to 2.7 times that of domestic projects [6][15] - The operational environment in overseas markets presents complexities that require enhanced local management and risk mitigation strategies [6][15] Recommendations - Focus on operators using BOT/BOO models for overseas investments, such as Weiming Environmental, Junxin Co., and China Tianying [6][15] - Consider equipment and engineering firms like Sanfeng Environment that leverage their manufacturing capabilities to enter overseas markets [6][15]

—高能环境(603588)公司深度报告 进军矿业开采&赴港上市，资源化龙头扬帆起航 证券研究报告 公司研究 2026 年 2 月 4 日 [Table_CoverAuthor] 郭雪 环保公用联席首席分析师 吴柏莹 环保行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮箱：guoxue@cindasc.com 邮箱：wuboying@cindasc.com [公司深度报告 Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 高能环境(603588) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [高能Table_T 环境：itle]进军矿业开采&赴港上市，资源化龙头扬帆起 航 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 2 月 4 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [Table_Summary ummary] ] ➢ 行情回顾：截至 5月 9日收盘，水治理板块上涨 3.75%，水务板块上 涨 1.79%；大气 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial and manufacturing sectors, including China Resources Land and Beike-W [15][18][20][21]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows a continuation of strong supply and weak demand characteristics, with short-term growth pressure remaining manageable [9]. - The real estate sector is experiencing a valuation recovery opportunity for quality developers due to a resonance between fundamentals and policies [10]. - The banking sector is witnessing a recovery from oversold conditions, with stock prices rebounding ahead of improvements in the funding environment [20]. - The non-bank financial sector is expected to benefit from policy-driven high-quality development, with a focus on high-performing stocks [22]. - The new energy sector has established a bottom line, with attention on marginal changes in new technologies [25]. - The machinery sector is gaining order resilience from overseas solar expansion and new business developments, while space solar technology opens growth opportunities [31]. - The environmental sector is focusing on carbon neutrality opportunities, with overseas expansion and metal prices providing elasticity [33]. Summary by Sections Real Estate - The sector is expected to face challenges in 2026, but recent policy easing and improved second-hand housing sales indicate a potential recovery [14]. - China Resources Land is highlighted as a leading developer with strong operational capabilities and a solid financial position, projected to achieve a net profit of 26.2 billion, 27 billion, and 28.2 billion from 2025 to 2027 [15]. Banking - Nanjing Bank is recommended due to its expected double-digit revenue growth in 2025, driven by stable asset quality and improved net interest margins [21]. Non-Bank Financials - New China Life Insurance is noted for its high elasticity and potential for improved returns on equity, with projected intrinsic values of 292.1 billion and 329.0 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively [24]. New Energy - The storage sector is expected to see demand stability supported by national capacity pricing, while lithium battery technology is anticipated to rebound with improved economic conditions [25]. - JunDa Co. is recognized for its strategic partnerships and potential growth in the space solar sector, with projected profits increasing significantly by 2027 [27]. Machinery - The machinery sector is benefiting from overseas solar project expansions, with companies like DiEr Laser positioned to capitalize on new technologies and increased order volumes [31][32]. Environmental - Weiming Environmental is highlighted for its potential in the Indonesian waste-to-energy market, with expected project launches in early 2026 [39]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.88 billion and 3.44 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively [39]. Light Industry - The light industry is seeing a rebound in export-driven companies, with a focus on quality stocks that can leverage cost efficiencies and supply chain advantages [43]. Military Industry - The military sector is expected to benefit from the transition of military technology to civilian applications and increased military trade, with key recommendations including Aviation Power and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry [51][53].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the environmental protection industry, with a specific emphasis on carbon reduction efforts and upcoming earnings reports from various companies in the sector [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Earnings Reports**: By January 30, 2026, 61 environmental companies have released their earnings forecasts for 2025. Among these: - 14 companies are expected to see significant positive growth in earnings - 4 companies are projected to experience a decline in earnings - 8 companies are anticipated to turn losses into profits - 35 companies are expected to report losses [1][2]. - **Notable Performers**: - **Wanyi Technology**: Expected net profit for 2025 is between 42 million to 62 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 191.52% to 330.34% - **Gao Neng Environment**: Projected net profit for 2025 is between 750 million to 900 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55.66% to 86.79% - **Yuehai Investment**: Expected net profit growth of 43% for 2025, with an estimated profit close to 4.5 billion HKD based on 2024 figures [2]. - **Carbon Reduction Initiatives**: The year 2026 marks a significant shift towards stringent carbon emission controls, with local governments facing formal evaluations of carbon neutrality targets for the first time [2]. - **EU Carbon Tariff**: The EU has implemented a carbon tariff as of January 1, 2026, which is expected to increase the cost of exports from China to the EU. Exporting companies can mitigate these costs through the use of green energy and recycled resources [3]. Additional Important Insights - **Green Energy Demand**: The demand for green energy in global transportation is increasing, particularly with the EU's plan to mandate a rise in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) usage from 2% to a long-term target of 70% by 2025 [3]. - **UCO Pricing**: The price of Used Cooking Oil (UCO) has reached 1,075 USD per ton, marking a 9.1% increase since early 2025. This price increase is expected to enhance profit margins for companies involved in the processing of waste oils [3]. - **Companies to Watch**: - **Recycling and Resource Recovery**: Companies like Yingke Recycling, Langkun Technology, and Dadi Ocean are highlighted for their roles in the recycling sector - **Green Steam and Methanol**: Companies such as Huanlan Environment and China Tianying are noted for their contributions to green steam and methanol production [3].

Investment Rating - The report rates the environmental operation industry as stable, with specific segments rated as follows: waste incineration power generation - stable, hazardous waste disposal - negative, and recycling of renewable resources - stable [5] Core Insights - The environmental industry is undergoing a structural transformation driven by both policy and market forces, with waste incineration power generation transitioning towards a market-driven model despite challenges such as regional supply-demand imbalances and reliance on policy for profitability [4][21] - The hazardous waste disposal sector is experiencing profound changes, with persistent overcapacity and intense price competition, leading to pressure on profits and a need for technological breakthroughs and increased industry concentration [22][23] - The recycling of renewable resources is expanding in scale while facing internal challenges, with a focus on technological advancements and efficiency improvements expected to accelerate transformation by 2026 [4][21] Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals - The waste incineration power generation sector is shifting towards a market-driven model, characterized by trends such as network collaboration, market-oriented operations, intelligent upgrades, and international competition [9][20] - The hazardous waste disposal industry is marked by structural overcapacity and low-price competition, with a need for rational behavior among market participants and a focus on resource recovery and digital regulation [22][23] - The recycling industry is experiencing both expansion and structural upgrades, with leading companies expected to gain advantages through core technologies and specialization in emerging sectors [4][21] Financial Performance - Waste incineration companies are benefiting from market-oriented operations and international orders, leading to improved cash flow and reduced leverage [7] - Hazardous waste disposal companies are facing increased operational pressures, with many reporting significant losses and negative cash flow [7] - The financial performance of recycling companies varies widely, with overall profitability remaining moderate and leverage levels slightly increasing [7] Conclusion - The waste incineration sector is expected to achieve a balance between supply and demand through regional collaboration and raw material optimization, with a shift towards diversified revenue models and enhanced technological integration [20][21] - The hazardous waste sector is anticipated to continue facing challenges related to overcapacity and competition, necessitating a focus on high-value resource recovery and digital regulation [22][23] - The recycling industry is projected to undergo significant transformation driven by technological advancements and efficiency improvements, with leading firms positioned to capitalize on these trends [4][21]

能源金属全面上涨，重视镍板块低预期的修正 20260128 摘要 永兴材料和九零锂业计划在 2026 年完成年度开采量后启动换证，短期 内产量预计不受影响，为市场提供稳定供应。 碳酸锂价格预计春节前后保持强势，2 月排产环比下降约 10%，锂盐厂 检修导致供给收缩，电池厂按需采购及期货点价意愿强是支撑因素，宁 德时代采矿证复产情况是关键。 碳酸锂价格上涨对储能经济性影响有限，尽管理论上每上涨 10 万元影 响 IRR 约 3%，但电池厂成本传导不完全，储能项目仍具经济性，各地 容量补贴政策落地进一步支持。 动力电池市场近期销售疲软，受去年四季度集中采购影响，一二月份为 空窗期，三四月份销售情况将更明朗，需求稳定将推动权益板块新一轮 行情。 印尼政府整顿青山工业园区码头垄断，显示出民族资源主义倾向，可能 规范矿业生产，或对青山集团在印尼镍产业链的资源份额产生影响。 印尼政府有意加强镍产业管理，可能通过提高镍价增加税收，目标价位 为 1.9 万至 2 万美元，若实现，相关标的估值将显著降低。 钴板块全年上涨趋势明确，刚果金实施强制出口配额制度导致全球供应 短缺，海外贸易商积极采购中间品库存，供需逻辑和市场行为均支 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential in waste incineration and the opportunities for companies to expand overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia and India, where there is a projected increase in waste incineration capacity [10][15] - The report highlights the significant increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles and the growth of unmanned sanitation projects, indicating a shift towards automation and electrification in the industry [17][20] - The 2026 strategy focuses on the dual drivers of value and growth, emphasizing the importance of marketization and efficiency improvements in the environmental sector [24][28] Industry Trends - Waste Incineration Growth: The report estimates a potential increase of approximately 500,000 tons/day in waste incineration capacity in ASEAN countries and India, corresponding to an investment scale of about 250 billion yuan [10] - Unmanned Sanitation Equipment: In 2025, the total amount of contracts for unmanned sanitation projects exceeded 12.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of over 150% [17] - New Energy Sanitation Vehicles: Sales of new energy sanitation vehicles increased by 70.9% in 2025, with a penetration rate of 21.11%, reflecting a growing trend towards electrification in the sanitation sector [20][30] Company Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Longjing Environmental, Gao Neng Environment, Sains, and others, focusing on their growth potential in both domestic and international markets [4][15] - The report suggests that companies like Weiming Environmental and Sanfeng Environment are expected to benefit significantly from overseas expansion and high-value projects [15][24] - The report also highlights the importance of dividend increases and return on equity (ROE) improvements for companies such as Huanlan Environment and Green Power [15][24] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the profitability of waste incineration projects in Indonesia is significantly higher than in China due to favorable pricing and operational conditions [12][15] - The report indicates that the market for lithium battery recycling is improving, with rising metal prices and better margins for recycling projects [38][39]

Summary of Weiming Environmental Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Weiming Environmental - **Industry**: Waste-to-energy and new materials Key Points Expansion into Indonesian Waste-to-Energy Market - Weiming Environmental is actively expanding into the Indonesian waste incineration market, benefiting from a presidential decree that clarifies the business model, including investments from the national sovereign fund, acquisition of electricity by power companies, and local government guarantees for waste supply, ensuring project scale effects and reducing payment risks [2][5] - The electricity price is locked at $0.2 per kWh for a 30-year period, with no waste disposal fees, leading to stable cash flow [2][5] - The first batch of waste incineration projects in Indonesia has an investment of approximately 1-1.4 billion RMB, higher than domestic projects, with the sovereign fund holding 30%-51% [2][6] - The projects are expected to start in Q1 2026, with bid results anticipated by the end of January or early February [2][6] Profitability and Market Potential - Indonesia's waste-to-energy potential is significant, with electricity generation per ton and grid electricity both exceeding levels in China, generating revenue of approximately 612-758 RMB per ton, far surpassing China's 170-280 RMB [2][8] - The market size is substantial, with annual operating revenue potentially reaching 30-40 billion RMB [2][8] - In 2023, Indonesia's waste generation is estimated at 56.63 million tons, with less than 40% managed through landfilling, highlighting the urgent need for waste incineration [7][8] New Materials Business Development - Weiming Environmental has initiated a new materials business, currently operating a 20,000-ton high-nickel production capacity, with plans to add another 20,000 tons in H1 2026 [2][9] - The company is collaborating with Bangpu to supply 24,000 to 48,000 tons of ternary precursor materials annually [2][9] Nickel Price and Profitability - The profitability of Weiming's high-nickel business is linked to nickel prices, with a current LME price of $18,000 per ton leading to a profit of approximately $2,760 per ton after costs [4][10] - Nickel prices have recently increased due to the Indonesian government's tightening of quotas, benefiting Weiming's smelting operations [4][11] - The company’s domestic waste incineration business has a stable capacity of 37,300 tons per day, contributing over 1.7 billion RMB in annual operating net profit [4][12] Financial Health and Valuation - Weiming Environmental has an overall debt-to-asset ratio of approximately 45%, indicating strong risk control capabilities [4][13] - The company's PE ratio is below 14 times based on 2026 earnings, suggesting it is undervalued, especially with upcoming contributions from new projects [4][14] Conclusion - Weiming Environmental is positioned for growth in both the Indonesian waste-to-energy market and its new materials business, with strong financial health and favorable market conditions supporting its expansion and profitability prospects [3][14]