Core Points - Douyin E-commerce announced the discovery of logistics companies abusing platform services by providing false logistics tracking and other violations, which harm consumer rights and disrupt platform operations [1] - Douyin will terminate partnerships with several logistics companies, including Zhongtong Cold Chain, Jishida, Water Fun Home, and Tiezhong Express, effective October 29 [1] - Violations include bypassing Douyin's electronic waybills, creating false tracking, and manipulating order statuses, leading to delayed or undelivered goods for consumers [1] Company Overview - Zhongtong Cold Chain operates under Zhongtong Express Group, leveraging its network and ecological advantages [2] - As of June 30, 2025, Zhongtong Express Group has approximately 6,000 direct network partners and over 30,000 collection and delivery points across the country [2] - In the first half of this year, Zhongtong Express Group's express service accounted for 92.9% of total revenue, with freight forwarding and material sales contributing 1.5% and 5.3%, respectively [4] Financial Performance - Zhongtong Express reported a revenue of 22.723 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 9.85%, while net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 3.932 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.6% [4] - As of October 28, Zhongtong Express's stock price was 149.30 HKD per share, with a market capitalization of 12.01 billion HKD [4]

近期，平台在日常巡查时发现，部分物流商滥用平台系统服务，为部分商家提供"虚假物流轨迹""转单拼接轨迹"等违规服务，致使订单轨迹与真实履约不 符，侵害消费者权益，破坏平台经营秩序。 为阻断违规链条、保障履约真实性，平台将依据相关规则于10月29日对以下物流商做清退处理：中通冷链（中通子公司）、吉时达、水趣到家、铁中快 运。 经核实，上述违规的核心手法是利用第三方电子面单进行转单或拼接轨迹，违规物流商在其中扮演关键角色： 每经编辑｜金冥羽 10月27日，抖音电商安全与信任中心微信公众号发布《抖音电商清退恶意转单违规物流商，维护平台经营秩序，保障消费者权益》一文： 1、规避平台要求：少数商家绕开抖音电子面单，通过第三方使用非抖音电商电子面单发货；违规物流商配合第三方构建虚假轨迹。 2、轨迹拼接/转单：抓取正常运单轨迹并拼接到"电子面单"，让"非抖发货单号"与伪单号表面一致。 3、批量作弊上传：手动或借"订单宝"等工具批量回填伪单号，系统显示"已揽收/在途/签收"，但实际未按轨迹履约。 虚假发货、违规转单会导致消费者收货延迟甚至收不到货、维权取证困难、品质与售后难以保障等一系列问题，影响消费者体验。届时，商家将无法再 ...

Core Viewpoint - Douyin's e-commerce safety and trust center announced the removal of several logistics companies due to violations involving the provision of false logistics tracking and other deceptive services, which harm consumer rights and disrupt platform operations [1] Group 1: Companies Involved - The logistics companies being removed from the platform include Zhongtong Cold Chain (a subsidiary of Zhongtong), Jishida, Water Fun Home, and Tiezhong Express [1] Group 2: Reasons for Removal - The removal is a response to the discovery of these companies abusing platform services to provide misleading logistics information, which resulted in discrepancies between order tracking and actual fulfillment [1] Group 3: Implementation Timeline - The removal process will take effect on October 29, following the announcement made on October 27 [1]

【抖音宣布清退中通冷链#】10月27日，抖音电商安全与信任中心发文宣布清退恶意转单违规物流商。 提到为阻断违规链条、保障履约真实性，平台将依据相关规则于10月29日对以下物流商做清退处理：中 通冷链（中通子公司）、吉时达、水趣到家、铁中快运。 抖音电商清退恶意转单违规物流商,维护平台经营秩序,保障消费者 权益 c 抖音电商 保障消费者物流体验是抖音电商的重要责任和长期工作童点。近期,平台在日常巡查时 发现,部分物流商滥用平台系统服务,为部分商家提供"虚假物流轨迹""转单拼接轨 迹"等违规服务,致使订单轨迹与真实履约不符,侵害消费者权益,破坏平台经营秩 序。 为阻断违规链条、保障履约真实性,平台将依据相关规则于10月29日对以下物流商做清 退处理:中通冷链(中通子公司)、吉时达、水趣到家、铁中快运。 经核实,上述违规的核心手法是利用第三方电子面单进行转单或拼接轨迹,违规物流商 在其中扮演关键角色: 2 规避平台要求:少数商家绕开抖音电子面单,通过第三方使用非抖音电商电子面单发 货;违规物流商配合第三方构建虚假轨迹。 2 轨迹拼接/转单:抓取正常运单轨迹并拼接到"电子面单",让"非抖发货单号"与 伪单号表面一致。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Douyin E-commerce has identified misuse of its platform by certain logistics companies, which provided false logistics tracking and other fraudulent services, harming consumer rights and disrupting platform operations [1] Summary by Categories Platform Actions - Douyin E-commerce will implement a cleanup of specific logistics companies on October 29, including Zhongtong Cold Chain, Jishida, Shuiqu Daijia, and Tiezhong Express, to ensure the authenticity of order fulfillment [1] Consumer Protection - The platform's measures aim to protect consumer rights by ensuring that order tracking aligns with actual delivery performance, thereby maintaining trust in the e-commerce ecosystem [1] Compliance and Regulation - The actions taken by Douyin E-commerce are in accordance with relevant rules to prevent the continuation of fraudulent activities within its logistics network [1]

Group 1 - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain resilient growth, with a projected business volume of 128.2 billion pieces in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.8% [2][9] - The trend of small parcelization continues, driven by consumer preferences for cost-effective products, leading to increased repurchase frequency and smaller package sizes [9][41] - The regulatory environment has led to a slowdown in price competition, with the average revenue per delivery in the express industry decreasing by 7.3% year-on-year to 7.48 yuan in the first eight months of 2025, a significant improvement from a 12.3% decline at the end of 2024 [3][13] Group 2 - The express delivery sector is witnessing a shift towards value competition due to the implementation of new social security regulations, which are expected to increase operational costs in the short term but promote long-term industry transformation [4][72] - The concentration of market share among leading companies has increased, with the top six firms maintaining an 80% market share in 2025, indicating a trend of market differentiation among major players [20][26] - The introduction of autonomous delivery vehicles is expected to reduce last-mile delivery costs significantly, with major companies like SF Express and ZTO Express investing heavily in this technology [70][65] Group 3 - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of e-commerce express delivery leaders, with a focus on companies like SF Express, YTO Express, ZTO Express, and JD Logistics, as they are expected to benefit from improved earnings visibility [77][78] - The report highlights that the profitability of express delivery companies will depend on the sustainability of price increases, with potential for significant profit recovery in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [60][62] - The report suggests that the ongoing trend of small parcelization and the rise of new consumption models will continue to support steady growth in delivery volumes [41][77]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" for companies that are expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by more than 15% [82] - The rating is "Cautious Increase" for companies expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 5% to 15% [82] - The rating is "Neutral" for companies expected to perform within -5% to 5% of the CSI 300 index [82] Core Insights - The express delivery business volume is projected to reach 128.2 billion pieces by 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.8% [7][34] - The market share of major express companies shows a gradual increase, with Zhongtong, Yunda, and Shentong leading the market [19][20] - The average single package value has shown fluctuations, impacting revenue growth across the industry [9][41] Summary by Sections Business Volume and Revenue - The express delivery business volume is expected to grow significantly, with a forecast of 128.2 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 17.8% [7][34] - The revenue from the express delivery sector is also projected to increase, with a notable correlation to the business volume growth [41] Market Share - The market share of major players like Zhongtong, Yunda, and Shentong is expected to evolve, with Zhongtong showing a steady increase in market presence [19][20] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a focus on maintaining market share while navigating pricing pressures [19][20] Profitability Metrics - Profitability is expected to improve, with net profit estimates for major companies indicating a positive trend in the coming years [53] - The net profit elasticity for Zhongtong is projected to be around 9% to 52% over the forecast period, indicating strong growth potential [53] Pricing Trends - The average single ticket price has shown a slight increase, which is crucial for maintaining profitability amidst rising operational costs [41][50] - The pricing strategy will be essential for companies to sustain margins while competing in a price-sensitive market [41][50]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant effects of price increases in the express delivery industry due to the "anti-involution" trend, with a focus on profit recovery during the peak season [2][6] - The express delivery business volume grew by 12.7% year-on-year in September, with cumulative growth of 17.2% from January to September [3][13] - The average price per delivery increased by 2.4% month-on-month in September, indicating a recovery in pricing power within the industry [4][23] Summary by Sections Industry Situation - In September, the express delivery business volume reached approximately 168.8 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7%. The cumulative retail sales of physical goods through online shopping amounted to 9.15 trillion yuan, reflecting a 6.5% year-on-year increase [3][13] - The cumulative online shopping penetration rate is about 25.0%, with a slight decline of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][13] Company Performance - In September, SF Express led the business volume growth with a 31.81% increase, followed by YTO Express at 13.64%, Shentong Express at 9.46%, and Yunda Express at 3.63% [4][25] - Cumulatively from January to September, SF Express achieved a business volume of 121 billion pieces, with a growth rate of 28.34%, while YTO, Yunda, and Shentong had growth rates of 19.40%, 12.98%, and 17.08% respectively [4][25] Pricing Situation - The average price per delivery in the express delivery industry was 7.55 yuan in September, down 4.9% year-on-year but up 2.4% month-on-month. The cumulative average price from January to September was 7.48 yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year [4][23] - Individual company pricing in September showed YTO at 2.21 yuan, Yunda at 2.02 yuan, Shentong at 2.12 yuan, and SF Express at 13.87 yuan, with SF experiencing a year-on-year decline of 13.31% [5][26] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend, particularly Zhongtong Express and YTO Express, while keeping an eye on Yunda and Shentong [7][41] - For direct-operated models, SF Express is recommended due to its potential for significant performance recovery and growth in international business [7][41]

Core Insights - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the trend of "anti-involution" in the express delivery industry has spread nationwide, significantly increasing the per-package revenue for companies and is expected to improve the profitability of e-commerce express delivery firms in the second half of this year and next year, with profitability elasticity depending on the sustainability of price increases [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The trend of small-package delivery continues, with the industry expected to maintain resilient growth in business volume. By August 2025, the cumulative express delivery volume reached 128.2 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 17.8% (on a comparable basis), indicating counter-cyclical growth [1] - The consumption potential in lower-tier markets, such as the central and western regions and rural areas, is being released, which is expected to contribute to resilient growth in industry business volume in the second half of 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, the express delivery industry's per-package revenue was 7.48 yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, but the decline has narrowed compared to a 12.3% drop at the end of 2024, reflecting a slowdown in price competition under the "anti-involution" regulation [1] - The upcoming peak season for e-commerce is anticipated to stabilize and repair express delivery prices in the second half of 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 3: Cost Dynamics - The weakening of economies of scale is noted, with the core cost per package declining at a slower pace. As transportation and transfer costs have limited room for reduction, the introduction of unmanned vehicle technology is expected to lower the delivery costs at the final stage [2] - New social security regulations are expected to lead to a short-term increase in per-package costs, but in the long term, they may drive the industry towards a value competition transformation [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and changes in the top holdings of the Yinhua Xinyi Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund, which reported a net value growth rate of 23.93% over the past year [1] - The fund has added new top holdings including HSBC Holdings, Standard Chartered Group, Bank of China Hong Kong, Luzhou Laojiao, ZTO Express, Wuliangye, and Shenzhou International [1] - China Mobile remains the largest holding with an increase of 22.35 million shares, while other previous top holdings such as SMIC, Xiaomi Group, CATL, Tencent Holdings, and others have exited the top ten holdings [1] Group 2 - The fund's top ten holdings now include significant investments in HSBC Holdings with 2.68 billion yuan, Standard Chartered Group with 2.48 billion yuan, and Bank of China Hong Kong with 2.47 billion yuan [1] - The fund has increased its stake in China Mobile by 6.04%, holding 3.03 billion yuan worth of shares, while it has reduced its position in Focus Media by 34.09% [1] - The overall changes in the fund's portfolio reflect a strategic shift towards financial and consumer sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [1]