新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 "酒价内参"的每日数据源自全国各大区均有合理分布的约200个采集点，包括但不限于酒企的指定经销 商、社会经销商、电商平台和零售网点等，原始取样数据为过去24个小时中各点位经手的真实成交终端 零售价格，力求为社会各界提供一份关于知名白酒市场价格的客观、真实、科学、全程可追溯的数据。 随着元旦官方i茅台平台开始出售1499元/瓶的飞天茅台，以及1月9日开始出售2299元/瓶的精品茅台，这 一新产生的渠道对两款产品市场终端零售均价的磁吸式影响力已逐步显现。"酒价内参"每日发布的酒价 遵循对真实成交量加权的计算规则，我们已逐渐将可确量的价格引入飞天茅台和精品茅台终端零售价的 计算中。 【点击进入酒价内参，查看真实酒价】 白酒业的重要新闻方面，财经媒体华见刊文称，目前白酒板块正经历典型的"至暗时刻"与"曙光初现"博 弈：一方面，机构持仓已降至2015年的历史底部，洋河等头部酒企业绩承压；但另一方面，茅台批价企 稳、五粮液现金充沛、洋河承诺全额分红。公募基金白酒股持仓已回落至2015年底部，当市场极度悲观 时，板块的"黄金坑"或许已经出现。最新数据显示，公募基金对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market shows a mixed trend in retail prices for the top ten products, with an overall slight decline in total price, indicating market stabilization with fluctuations among core products [1]. Price Trends - The total retail price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 8,886 yuan, down by 3 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Among the ten products, four increased in price, five decreased, and one remained stable [1]. Price Increases - Qinghua Lang leads the price increase with a rise of 14 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of price growth [1]. - Gujing Gonggu 20 and Jingpin Moutai saw increases of 7 yuan and 4 yuan per bottle, respectively [1]. - Xijiu Junpin experienced a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle [1]. Price Decreases - Wuliangye dropped by 9 yuan per bottle [1]. - Guojiao 1573 decreased by 8 yuan per bottle [1]. - Feitian Moutai's average retail price fell by 7 yuan per bottle due to the normalized supply from the iMoutai platform [1]. - Mengzhilun M6+ and Qinghua Fen 20 saw decreases of 3 yuan and 2 yuan per bottle, respectively [1]. - Shuijing Jianan Chun's price remained unchanged from the previous day [1]. Specific Product Prices - Feitian Moutai (53 degrees, 500ml) is priced at 1,640 yuan, down by 7 yuan [3]. - Jingpin Moutai (53 degrees, 500ml) is priced at 2,352 yuan, up by 4 yuan [3]. - Wuliangye (52 degrees, 500ml) is priced at 797 yuan, down by 9 yuan [3]. - Gujing Gonggu 20 (52 degrees, 550ml) is priced at 506 yuan, up by 7 yuan [4]. - Xijiu Junpin (53 degrees, 500ml) is priced at 642 yuan, up by 1 yuan [4]. - Qinghua Lang (53 degrees, 500ml) is priced at 737 yuan, up by 14 yuan [4]. - Shuijing Jianan Chun (52 degrees, 500ml) is priced at 388 yuan, unchanged [4].

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing trend of liquor brands, particularly baijiu, collaborating with celebrities for endorsements as the Spring Festival approaches, indicating a shift in marketing strategies to attract younger consumers [2][3][4] - Notable endorsements include Liu Xiaoqing and Yang Yuguang for Tuopai, and other brands like Shui Jing Fang and Gu Xiao Jiu have also engaged celebrities like Liang Chaowei and Luo Yonghao to enhance brand image and drive sales [2][3][6][7] - The shift towards celebrity endorsements reflects a broader strategy to connect with younger demographics and improve brand perception, as seen with brands like Wuliangye and Moutai [6][7] Group 2 - The baijiu industry is experiencing a significant decline, with production dropping 19% year-on-year in December 2025, marking the ninth consecutive year of decline since 2017 [10][14] - In contrast, the production of beer and wine has also seen declines, with beer production down 1.1% and wine production down 17.1% in 2025 [11][12] - The changing landscape of the liquor market is highlighted by the growth of white spirits, such as vodka and tequila, which have seen substantial increases in import volumes, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [16] Group 3 - Companies like Langjiu reported a slight increase in distributor shipments for 2025, while others like Jinpin Xijiu are implementing strict production controls to manage supply [19][23] - Yanghe Co. has announced a significant expected profit decline of 62% to 68% for 2025, attributing this to increased competition and reduced market demand [30] - The company has also introduced a new cash dividend policy, committing to distribute at least 100% of net profit to shareholders from 2025 to 2027 [31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that the public fund holdings in the liquor sector have dropped to a historical low, indicating a potential "golden pit" for investment opportunities as market sentiment is extremely pessimistic [1][2] - Public fund holdings in the liquor sector have decreased for nine consecutive quarters, now standing at 2.9%, close to the historical low of 2015 [2] - Despite the negative sentiment, the fundamentals of high-end liquor brands like Moutai show resilience, with sales and prices performing better than expected [6] Group 2 - The current overweight ratio of the liquor sector is only 1.0%, lower than levels seen in early 2013, indicating that panic selling by institutional investors has likely concluded, creating a clean chip structure [5] - Moutai's sales and pricing have shown improvement, with a price stabilization around 1570 yuan, and cash reserves of major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao provide a strong safety margin during performance fluctuations [6][7] - The upcoming Spring Festival in 2026 is anticipated to be a significant turning point, with expectations of improved sales performance as market pessimism may be overly exaggerated [8]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector continues to experience a downturn, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a decline of 1.39% as of the latest report [1][2] - Major stocks in the sector, particularly in the liquor category, have seen significant drops, with Yanghe Distillery falling nearly 9% and other brands like Gujinggongjiu and Shuiwangfang dropping over 2% [1][2] - The recent performance reflects broader market trends, indicating a challenging environment for the food and beverage industry [1][3] Group 2 - The addition of new shipping warehouses in Nanjing and Beijing by "i Moutai" is a strategic response to increased order volumes and winter logistics challenges, enhancing customer experience [3] - The food and beverage sector's valuation is currently at a historical low, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 19.39, suggesting a potential opportunity for investment [3][4] - Analysts predict a market trend where sectors like snacks and dairy are favored due to clear growth prospects, while the liquor sector is expected to stabilize as demand increases with the upcoming Spring Festival [3][4] Group 3 - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) is heavily invested in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with significant allocations to brands like Moutai and Yili [4] - The ETF provides a way for investors to gain exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector, with a focus on high-quality stocks [4][5] - Recent reports suggest that the liquor industry is showing signs of weak recovery, with potential for valuation improvement as economic conditions gradually enhance [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gujinggongjiu has successfully positioned itself as an integral part of the Chinese New Year celebration through its new product "Nian San Shi He," which aims to redefine the family reunion experience with an accessible price point and cultural significance [1][3][5] Group 1: Product Launch and Market Response - The new product "Nian San Shi He" is priced around 220 yuan, targeting a broader audience by making high-quality Chinese New Year liquor accessible for family gatherings [3][6] - The product quickly gained popularity, reaching the top 5 in liquor sales on Douyin on its launch day, with over 10,000 bottles sold within four days [3][6] - The design of the bottle resembles a lantern, symbolizing warmth and celebration, enhancing its appeal as a festive centerpiece [6][10] Group 2: Cultural and Strategic Significance - Gujinggongjiu has been a partner of the CCTV Spring Festival Gala for eleven consecutive years, embedding its brand into the cultural fabric of the holiday [5][13] - The product's name "Nian San Shi" evokes a shared cultural memory among Chinese people, while the suffix "He" emphasizes harmony and family unity, aligning with deep-rooted cultural values [5][8] - The strategic focus on cultural attributes rather than just taste positions Gujinggongjiu uniquely in a competitive market, aiming to resonate with consumers' emotional connections to family and tradition [13] Group 3: Marketing and Consumer Engagement - The pricing strategy of 220 yuan is designed to balance between premium gifting and everyday consumption, targeting families and social gatherings [10][11] - Online marketing initiatives, such as the "Global Spring Couplets Collection" and "Show Your Nian San Shi" campaigns, effectively engage consumers and create a festive atmosphere around the product [11][13] - The brand aims to transform cultural resonance into consumer action, creating a complete festive experience that integrates the product into the New Year celebration [11][13]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector continues to experience a downturn, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a decline of 1.39% as of the latest report [1][2] - Major stocks in the sector, particularly in the liquor category, have seen significant drops, with Yanghe Co. falling nearly 9% and other brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Shui Jing Fang dropping over 2% [1][3] - The recent addition of new shipping warehouses in Nanjing and Beijing by "iMoutai" aims to enhance logistics efficiency in response to increased order volumes and winter weather challenges [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, making it a potentially good time for left-side positioning in the market [3][4] - The price-to-earnings ratio for the food and beverage ETF is reported at 19.39, which is at the 1.76% percentile of the last decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3][4] - Market trends indicate a preference for sectors like snacks and dairy, which are expected to perform well due to policy support and improving monthly data, while the liquor sector is in a phase of consolidation and preparation for upcoming demand [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a weak price differentiation among the top ten products, with a slight overall decline in retail prices, indicating a phase of market rebalancing [1]. Price Trends - The total retail price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 8,889 yuan, down by 4 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The market shows four products increasing in price, five decreasing, and one remaining stable [1]. Price Increases - Qinghua Lang leads the price increase with an 11 yuan rise per bottle, marking four consecutive days of price growth [1]. - Wuliangye and Mengzhilan M6+ saw increases of 4 yuan and 3 yuan per bottle, respectively, providing support in the mid-range segment [1]. - Qinghua Fen 20 experienced a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle [1]. Price Decreases - Premium Moutai saw a price drop of 8 yuan per bottle [1]. - Xijiu Junpin and Gujing Gonggu 20 both decreased by 5 yuan per bottle [1]. - Feitian Moutai fell by 4 yuan per bottle due to normalized supply from the iMoutai platform [1]. - Guojiao 1573 experienced a minor decline of 1 yuan per bottle [1]. - Shujin Jianan Spring's price remained unchanged from the previous day [1]. Specific Product Prices - Feitian Moutai: 1,647 yuan per bottle, down 4 yuan [3]. - Premium Moutai: 2,348 yuan per bottle, down 8 yuan [3]. - Wuliangye: 806 yuan per bottle, up 4 yuan [3]. - Qinghua Fen 20: 375 yuan per bottle, unchanged [3]. - Guojiao 1573: 880 yuan per bottle, down 1 yuan [3]. - Mengzhilan M6+: 582 yuan per bottle, up 3 yuan [4]. - Gujing Gonggu 20: 499 yuan per bottle, down 57 yuan [4]. - Xijiu Junpin: 641 yuan per bottle, down 57 yuan [4]. - Qinghua Lang: 723 yuan per bottle, up 11 yuan [4]. - Shujin Jianan Spring: 388 yuan per bottle, unchanged [4].

证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料行业周报（20260119-20260125） 推荐（维持） 白酒减仓至历史底部，餐饮链及节庆食品迎催化 行业研究 食品饮料 2026 年 01 月 26 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：范子盼 联系人：王培培 邮箱：fanzipan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090001 证券分析师：田晨曦 邮箱：tianchenxi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090005 证券分析师：刘旭德 邮箱：liuxude@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080010 证券分析师：严文炀 邮箱：yanwenyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525070006 证券分析师：董广阳 邮箱：dongguangyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518040001 邮箱：wangpeipei@hcyjs.com 联系人：寸特彬 邮箱：cuntebin@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost sales in the liquor sector, with Moutai leading the industry towards an unexpected improvement. Short-term focus should be on the demand for the Spring Festival, while medium-term investments should target leading brands across various price segments [1] - In the beer segment, new product launches are being prepared, with a focus on high-growth channels and consumer trends towards personalized and diversified consumption [2] - The baking sector is showing stable performance, with companies like Lihigh Foods preparing for the sales peak and benefiting from favorable policies regarding cream products [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival is driving demand, with Moutai expected to lead the market. Key short-term stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Guo Jiu Gong Jiu, and others, while medium-term focus should be on Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Beer Sector - Current beer sales are in a low season, but new product launches and high growth in instant retail channels are promising. Companies like Chongqing Beer are launching new 1L cans to meet consumer preferences [2] Food Sector - Lihigh Foods is preparing for the sales peak with a focus on quality over quantity, while Anqi Yeast is benefiting from declining sugarcane prices, enhancing profit margins [3] - Yizhi Konjac is experiencing rapid demand growth, with a stable supply chain and product innovation driving its market position [4]