[Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 2 日 [Table_Title] 2025 年黄金需求同比增加 8%至 4999.4 吨，投资需求同 比增加 84%至 2175.3 吨 证券研究报告|行业动态报告 [Table_Title2] 有色金属 [Table_Summary] ►供给：2025 年黄金总供应量同比增长 1%，达到 5002.3 吨 生产商一直专注于全价风险敞口，对套期保值兴趣寥寥。黄金 矿商在 2025 年同样表现亮眼。然而，市场对金价下跌的中位 数预期可能促使部分参与者提高警惕。套期保值行为正从看涨 期权卖出转向看跌期权买入——尽管规模仍相对有限——这表 明矿商希望在保留上行风险敞口的同时获得下行保护。但要将 产量提升至当前水平之上仍将面临挑战。 ►需求：2025 年黄金需求（不考虑 OTC及其他）达到 4999.4 吨，同比增长 8% 2025 年，不考虑 OTC 及其他，黄金总需求同比增长 8%至 4999.4 吨。其中金饰制造 1638.0 吨，同比减少 19%；科技用金 322.8 吨，同比减少 1%；投资需求 2175.3 吨，同比增长 84%； 央行购金 863.3 吨 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美国政府进入技术性、部分"停摆"状态 特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席 多位美联储官员认为现在无需降息 CME上调金银铂钯期货保证金比例 美媒：美方释放与伊朗谈判信号，双方或在土耳其举行会晤 欧佩克+八个成员国将维持原定计划，在三月暂停上调石油产量 日本在1月份未进行日元干预 国家统计局：1月制造业PMI为49.3%，环比降0.8个百分点 上期所调整白银期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例 多只LOF今日将停牌1小时 市场盘点 上周五，在美国总统特朗普宣布前美联储理事沃什为下一任美联储主席人选后 ，美元指数大幅走强，并冲上97关口上方，最终涨1.02%，报97.13；基准的 10年期美债收益率收报4.238%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.539%。 现货黄金自欧盘时段开启跌势，盘中一度暴跌12%至4680美元一线，创1983年以来最大单日跌幅，单日振幅近770美元，且抹去本周所有涨幅，最终收跌 9.19%，报4883.45美元/盎司， ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 波动不改趋势，静待第二波重估 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周金银巨幅波动，下跌背后三重因素：1）导火索：宏观叙事出现变化。凯文·沃什被提名为 美联储下任主席候选人，是直接触发点。尽管其近期支持降息，但其长期鹰派立场及可能推动 "缩表与降息并行"的政策倾向，动摇了市场对"美元趋势性单边贬值"的最激进押注，抽走了短期 情绪炒作的基础。2）核心机制：杠杆资金的负反馈。3）市场阶段：从"逼空投机"到"价值重估" 的切换。我们认为 70-90 美元/盎司银价中泡沫化部分或已被挤出，底层逻辑并未反转。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BWM115 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.c ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that despite recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices, the long-term logic for precious metals remains intact. The recent price movements are attributed to various factors including the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and political developments in the U.S. [4][6] - The report emphasizes that the "Trump 2.0" and "rate cut trade" themes will continue to provide strong momentum for gold prices in the medium term. It suggests that investors should look for phase-specific allocation opportunities [6] - Long-term expectations are that the combination of "rate cut trade" and "Trump 2.0" will catalyze further price increases for gold, supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical factors [6] Price Trends - Over the past two weeks, as of January 30, 2026, London spot gold increased by 8.04% to $4,981.85 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold price rose by 12.51% to ¥1,161.42 per gram. The holding volume for Shanghai gold decreased by 5.88% to 326,700 contracts [11] - London spot silver rose by 13.65% to $103.19 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver price increased by 24.28% to ¥27,941 per kilogram, with Shanghai silver holding volume down by 8.54% to 657,700 contracts [11] - The report notes that palladium prices increased by 3.70% to $1,820 per ounce, while platinum prices slightly decreased by 0.04% to $2,300 per ounce [11] Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report highlights the importance of upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including the ADP employment numbers and unemployment rates, which are expected to influence market sentiment and precious metal prices [6] - The Federal Reserve's current stance is viewed as appropriate, with a focus on balancing inflation and employment risks, which may extend the timeline for potential rate cuts [6] Holding and Trading Volume - The report provides insights into the trading volumes, noting a decrease in holding volumes for both gold and silver in the Shanghai market, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [11] Price Differentials and Futures Basis - The report states that the gold price differential between domestic and international markets has increased, with the current differential at ¥62.04 per gram, up from two weeks prior [61] - The international gold basis (spot-futures) has risen to $74.35 per ounce, indicating a tightening market [63]

财经大件事（2026年1月26日-2026年2月1日） 头条 金价震荡！黄金"牛股"跌停，股东精准"套现"1.8亿 随着现货黄金价格的剧烈震荡，A股黄金板块在经历连续大涨后出现显著分化。 杰我睿兑付危机持续发酵，多家同类平台小程序被暂停服务 日前，深圳"杰我睿珠宝"黄金兑付危机引发市场关注。据悉，该平台提现已经受限，全国投资者未结清余额超百 亿元。 湾财社记者注意到，在杰我睿平台出现兑付危机后，"云点当""融通金"等同类平台的小程序被相继暂停，不过"融 通金"已启动备用方式维持正常运营。 在这场黄金兑付风波中，危机核心是"预定价"模式，其本质为无实物支撑的高杠杆黄金对赌。此前已有同类平台 出现兑付困难，这类平台多无金融资质、缺乏监管，价格波动下易失控。 配送员将水仙种球当百合配送，消费者索赔300万？盒马回应 近日，有媒体报道，北京一位消费者在盒马App下单一盒鲜百合，配送员误将有毒性的水仙种球配送上门，其家 人不慎误食就医。 截至1月30日午间收盘，黄金概念股走势呈现两极分化态势：湖南黄金（002155.SZ）、中国黄金（600916.SH）大 涨，赤峰黄金（600988.SH）、山东黄金（600547.S ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting a positive outlook for gold and silver prices in the medium to long term [2][4]. Core Views - The new Federal Reserve Chairman's policies have raised concerns, leading to a correction in gold and silver prices. However, the long-term trend remains bullish due to central bank gold purchases and a weakening dollar credit [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical factors and macroeconomic policies in influencing metal prices, particularly in the context of expanding domestic demand in China [8][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The SW Non-ferrous Index increased by 3.37% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% [8]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Zijin Mining, China Molybdenum, and Yunnan Aluminum, among others, with a focus on their earnings forecasts and valuations [2][8]. 2. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions and domestic production adjustments, with a notable increase in aluminum inventory [24][28]. - Copper prices are expected to remain stable, supported by a weak dollar and increased import activity, despite a generally subdued demand environment [45][48]. - Zinc prices have shown volatility due to external factors and domestic supply disruptions, with a recent increase in prices observed [49][50]. 3. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - Gold and silver prices are projected to rise in the medium term, driven by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar [2][8]. - The report highlights the potential for price increases in cobalt and nickel due to supply constraints and geopolitical factors [2][24][63]. 4. Rare Earths - The report does not provide specific insights into rare earths, focusing instead on the broader non-ferrous metals market [10].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Hongqiao [9]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has cooled, leading to a general decline in metal prices, particularly in precious metals where silver and gold experienced significant drops [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing supply constraints in the copper market, with major mining companies reducing their production forecasts due to capacity limitations [2]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies, with demand anticipated to recover as the peak season approaches [3]. - Nickel prices have shown volatility, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and supply-side cost pressures, with expectations of limited downside due to rising production costs [4]. - Tin prices are supported by macroeconomic factors and supply chain bottlenecks, although demand remains weak ahead of the Chinese New Year [5]. - Lithium prices have retreated from highs due to regulatory impacts and market liquidity tightening, but there is expected support from supply-side maintenance and pre-holiday stocking [6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Significant declines in silver and gold prices were noted, with silver dropping 36% and gold falling over 12% in a single day [1]. - Companies to watch include Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories increased globally, with a notable rise in U.S. stocks, while Chinese inventories decreased [2]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2]. - Aluminum production is stable, but demand is fluctuating due to seasonal factors and geopolitical issues [3]. - Nickel prices fell by 5.4% due to macroeconomic sentiment, with supply-side cost pressures expected to limit further declines [4]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices have decreased, with battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping 5.6% to 160,000 CNY/ton [5]. - The report indicates that companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium should be monitored [5]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have stabilized, with a slight increase in electrolytic cobalt prices [8]. - Companies to focus on include Huayou Cobalt and Liyuan Resources [8]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced a significant acquisition of a gold mining company, which could enhance its resource base [36]. - Huayou Cobalt signed a cooperation agreement for an integrated battery supply chain project in Indonesia [36]. - Tianqi Lithium reported progress on its lithium production expansion project [36].

有色金属 2026 年 2 月 1 日 有色金属周报 海外宏观预期边际变化，有色金属波动加剧 核心观点： 贵金属-黄金：贵金属价格周内宽幅震荡。截至 1.30，COMEX 金主 力合约达 4907.5 美元/盎司，环比下跌 1.5%。黄金周内冲高回落。 SPDR 黄金 ETF 环比增加 0.1%为 1087 吨。特朗普提名前美联储理 事凯文·沃什担任美联储主席. 市场预期沃什会支持降息，但不会像其 他潜在提名者那样采取激进的宽松货币政策。受宽币政策预期边际收 紧影响，叠加上半周金价加速走高，1.30 黄金价格出现加速回落。波 动率加速抬升背景下，金价短期或仍将呈现宽幅震荡走势。但长期来 看美国债务问题未解，美元信用走弱的主线未现拐点，我们认为黄金 长期走势难言见顶，短期企稳后，金价中枢或仍将抬升。 工业金属：工业金属周内冲高回落。 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 25/01 25/04 25/07 25/10 26/01 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 风险提示： 证 ...

新京报贝壳财经讯 2月1日，据Choice数据统计，包括紫金矿业、中金黄金、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、湖 南黄金和西部黄金在内的6家黄金上市公司披露2025年度业绩预告。其中，紫金矿业2025年净利润同比 预增59%-62%；中金黄金Q4净利预计环比增长14%-75%。 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices fluctuating sharply due to geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership. Recent comments from former President Trump advocating for lower interest rates have positively impacted precious metals [3][6][29] - The report highlights a strong demand for gold driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks, with expectations for continued price increases in the long term due to global monetary and debt concerns [7][21] - Silver has shown a dramatic price drop recently, attributed to profit-taking and market reactions to Federal Reserve announcements, but the underlying supply-demand dynamics remain supportive of future price increases [8][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold prices fell by 1.52% to $4,907.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver dropped by 17.44% to $85.25 per ounce. In contrast, SHFE gold rose by 4.10% to ¥1,161.42 per gram, and SHFE silver increased by 11.92% to ¥27,941.00 per kilogram [1][33] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 19.29% to 57.57, indicating a shift in market dynamics [34] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly tensions involving Iran, has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, leading to increased volatility in their prices [3][6][29] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices decreased by 0.44% to $13,070.50 per ton, while aluminum fell by 1.20% to $3,135.50 per ton. Zinc, however, saw a rise of 3.09% to $3,370.00 per ton [9] - The SHFE market showed copper prices increasing by 2.31% to ¥103,680.00 per ton, with aluminum and zinc also experiencing gains [9] - Supply disruptions from overseas mines and structural demand from emerging industries are expected to support copper prices in the long term, despite current demand weakness in China [10][24] Small Metals - Magnesium prices rose by 1.45% to ¥18,240 per ton, driven by increased demand ahead of the Chinese New Year and stable supply from major production areas [19] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices have shown slight increases, supported by tight supply and steady demand from steel manufacturers [20]